As each NHL team is eliminated from playoff contention -- either mathematically or by losing in the postseason -- we'll take a look at why its quest for the Stanley Cup fell short in 2017-18, along with three keys to its offseason and a way-too-early prediction on what 2018-19 will hold.
What went wrong
The Detroit Red Wings opened the new Little Caesars Arena at the start of the season, and quickly discovered that their roster was staler than week-old Crazy Bread. They had nine players north of 30 years old and were pressed against the salary-cap ceiling.
The Red Wings went 33-36-13 last season, and were a middling 15-16-7 on Jan. 1 of this season. They were 20-21-8 on Feb. 1. They were 26-27-10 on March 1.
In other words, they were consistently mediocre, underscored by a punchless offense (2.52 goals per game, fourth-worst in the league) and a far-too-generous defense (3.11 goals against per game, ninth-worst in the league). If the need for a tear-it-down rebuild wasn't obvious before, it sure is now.
Keys to the offseason
1. Determine the fate of Ken Holland.
Holland is in his 21st year as Wings general manager, having built multiple Stanley Cup champions and strung together a streak of 25 straight playoff seasons. But he's in the last year of his contract, and the current state of the team -- from the bloated, unmovable contracts for underperforming veterans to the shallowness of the prospect pool -- has many wondering if a change will be made.
Holland remains one of the most respected men in NHL management -- one reason why if the Wings move on, he could end up running the NHL's Seattle franchise. But a change could be necessary to rethink the rebuild, which means everything would be on the table, from the promotion of Kris Draper from assistant GM to the unending dream of Tampa GM (and Red Wings icon) Steve Yzerman returning to pilot the franchise.
2. Continue the contract purge.
The trade of Tomas Tatar on deadline day -- returning three draft picks -- was a nice reminder that Holland can still pull off a coup, and it was the first step toward turning over the roster.
Whoever the general manager is this summer, players such as Gustav Nyquist, Frans Nielsen, Darren Helm, Jimmy Howard and any veteran not named Henrik Zetterberg (unless he asks out) need to be put in play, not only to acquire more future assets but to open up ice time to see what the few prospects the Wings have can offer.
Furthering this point: The Wings have five good young players going RFA this summer. Smart contracts are a must here.
3. Focus on the blue line.
Given their recent play, Red Wings are going to have some good lottery odds to potentially land Rasmus Dahlin as their next franchise defenseman. (And boy, could they use that kind of focal point for the future now.)
But even if they don't win the lottery, there are young defensemen like Adam Boqvist, Evan Bouchard and Quinton Hughes (of Michigan) who will be available in the top 10. The Wings have some defensemen in the pipeline -- Dennis Cholowski, Joe Hicketts, Gustav Lindstrom and a very promising Filip Hronek -- but need that top-pairing talent. Hopefully, that arrives in Dahlin.
Realistic expectation for 2018-19
To go back to the pizza (pizza!) analogy, the Red Wings are going to still be rolling out the dough next season, not quite ready to cook.
The only correct course for Detroit is the long road back, in which veterans are turned into futures, young players are given the multitude of ice time, and prospects are allowed to grow. That doesn't mean a total purge of name players -- Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader, Jonathan Ericsson, potentially a returning Mike Green and others are needed to be mentors and examples -- but it does mean another season in which playoff contention would be a surprise.
"The work we are doing right now is going to pay dividends down the road. I can't tell you how far down the road. It depends on how many of those kids become players and then what other things happen," Holland told the Detroit Free Press. "But this is an important stretch for the team in order to compete for a Stanley Cup down the road."