As each NHL team is eliminated from playoff contention -- either mathematically or by losing in the postseason -- we'll take a look at why its quest for the Stanley Cup fell short in 2017-18, along with three keys to its offseason and a way-too-early prediction on what 2018-19 will hold.
What went wrong
In the third season of his NHL career, Sidney Crosby played for the Stanley Cup. The expectation that Connor McDavid would do the same in his third campaign seemed realistic, given that the Edmonton Oilers made the Western Conference semifinals last season, losing in seven games.
But those expectations were dashed when the Oilers regressed mightily and ended up as one of the NHL's biggest busts of 2017-18.
Goalie Cam Talbot saw his save percentage drop by a dozen points, dramatically exposing the cracks in the Oilers' defense (going from a 2.52 team GAA to a 3.19). General manager Peter Chiarelli's previous decisions to ship out scoring on the wings drained the offense. The promise of last season was replaced with consternation about the future.
Keys to the offseason
1. Get a top-six winger.
In theory, McDavid should emulate Crosby, in that you can find a parade of Bryan Rusts and Conor Shearys and Jake Guentzels whom he can transform into consistent scorers.
So when there's talk about acquiring a Max Pacioretty or a Mike Hoffman, it should be with a focus on a real point of concern next season: turning Leon Draisaitl into the dominant second-line center the team needs him to be for the eight years and $8.5 million they've paid him. Because if McDavid isn't on the ice, this team isn't scoring.
That said, we imagine keeping McDavid happy is paramount, so expect whatever winger they acquire to skate with him.
2. Acquire a puck-moving defenseman.
It's almost inconceivable that a team with two offensive players in the top 40 scorers doesn't have a blueliner who ranks in the top 70 in points among defensemen, but here we are. Chiarelli is a paragon of mismanagement in a lot of ways, but having a bad blue line with two players -- Andrej Sekera, Kris Russell -- who have full trade protection is nutty.
Edmonton has to upgrade this unit with someone who can push the puck and create offense. Now, pick up the phone and offer Oscar Klefbom and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for Erik Karlsson (if EK signs long term in Edmonton).
3. Find another goalie to push Talbot.
Due respect to Al Montoya, but the Oilers need a goalie who can be more of a 1-A with Talbot, who is entering the last year of his contract and whose play this season was cause for concern.
There are more than a few interesting options on the free-agent market who could fit here for a reasonable price.
Realistic expectation for 2018-19
There's something to be said for patience. Look at the Winnipeg Jets, who are now Stanley Cup contenders after a few meandering and underwhelming seasons. But their plan was meticulous and persistent, whereas the Oilers' has been aggressive and reactionary.
Taylor Hall is challenging for the Hart, and Jordan Eberle has helped Mathew Barzal to a Calder, while their returns on investment have underperformed. Moreover, with Milan Lucic as a literal and figurative anchor on the Oilers, Chiarelli hasn't inspired much confidence that his vision is the right one. He'll get another kick at the can this summer, and one assumes this will be a better team on paper entering next season.
We'll set the realistic expectation at a return to the playoffs, which should be the expectation every season you ice a team with Connor McDavid on the roster.