Even with a complete roster, Team Czech Republic would have a hard time winning this year's World Cup of Hockey. By choice or by circumstance, the team is forging ahead without many of its top scorers and with the tournament's least experienced blue line. Is there a realistic path to victory for the Czech Republic?
The odds are certainly stacked against Team Czech Republic, who were slotted in Group A with Team Canada, Team USA and Team Europe. Because only two teams advance to the semifinal round, they need to dispatch fellow long-shot Team Europe in the round robin and achieve a flat-out upset against either the Americans or the Canadians.
Assuming the Czechs advance, the semifinal will be a single game against one of the two winners of Group B, which could include another underdog. Although that might be an ideal situation for an upset, the victor then faces the ultimate obstacle: a three-game series that will most assuredly be against one of the tournament's powerhouses.
To meet these challenges and achieve one of the greatest upsets in this tournament's rich history, Team Czech Republic will be relying heavily on strong defensive play and outstanding goaltending for a close, low-scoring game and for their handful of elite stars to make the difference wherever they can, whether that's on the power play, in the faceoff circle or in the corners. Let's dive into the underlying numbers and see what that amazing feat would look like.
Dominik Hasek-caliber goaltending
The Czech Republic won the gold medal at the 1998 Nagano Olympics because of one of the most spectacular goaltending performances in hockey history by Dominik Hasek.
Obviously, Detroit's Petr Mrazek is no Hasek, but lights-out goaltending is absolutely mandatory for this team to win, and Mrazek is just as likely as any other goalie in this tournament to get hot and steal a couple games.
Despite the absence of the kind of big names that will man the nets of the tournament's other teams, this is not an area of weakness. Consider Mrazek's goaltending statistics the past three seasons, and compare to the stats of the other 21 goalies in the World Cup, who have at least 20 games of NHL experience. By any metric, Mrazek makes the Czech Republic just as competitive in this department as any other team.
Unlike Team Sweden, which would be lost if Henrik Lundqvist struggles or gets hurt, Team Czech Republic isn't doomed without its starter. Among backups, Michal Neuvirth's numbers are also competitive.
A tight defensive shell
It is imperative for Team Czech Republic to support Mrazek with tight defensive play, especially against the tournament's stronger teams. Low-scoring games might not be exciting, but they are more likely to produce upsets because a single bounce can be enough to win the game.
Seriously outgunned offensively, the team simply can't afford to fall behind. The Czechs are playing without many of the country's highest-scoring forwards, including Jaromir Jagr, Jiri Hudler, David Krejci, Radim Vrbata and Tomas Hertl, and the team's defensemen have a combined 336 points in 1,639 NHL games -- the equivalent of 17 points in a full 82-game season. There is no modern version of a puck-moving defenseman such as Marek Zidlicky on the roster, which lacks a single defenseman who has scored 30 points in a season.
That's why forming a defensive shell is the ideal strategy. The following player usage chart highlights how that will play to the team's overall strength in facing top-six opponents in general (the vertical axis), especially those who are comfortable in both zones (the horizontal axis) while recording strong shot-based metrics (the sized, shaded circles).
This chart highlights the importance of Zbynek Michalek on the blue line. He is the only defenseman (denoted in italics) with proven experience shutting down top opponents in the NHL. Expect him to log a lot of big minutes, especially in key situations.
Although there is no similar shortage of effective two-way talent up front, Team Czech Republic will be relying heavily on forwards like Tomas Plekanec, Ondrej Palat and Michael Frolik, who have experience shutting down top opponents in all zones and manpower situations while posing a reasonable scoring threat of their own.
Vladimir Sobotka will also play an important role by winning key draws, especially in the defensive zone. In his last NHL season in 2013-14, Sobotka led the NHL with a 61.9 faceoff win percentage, which pulled him up to 56.3 percent for his career -- just shy of his 56.7 faceoff win percentage in the KHL. This gives the Czech Republic an advantage against every team in the tournament except Canada, who has Jonathan Toews (57.1 percent) and Patrice Bergeron (56.8 percent).
Taking advantage
The final component of the team's overall strategy is to adopt a hard-hitting style of play. Not only is that a key part of the team's defensive shell, but it can also knock opposing players off their games, provoke mistakes and create scoring and man-advantage opportunities.
In this effort, expect Roman Polak to lead the way, as he ranked third in the NHL with 303 hits last season, along with gritty forwards Dmitrij Jaskin and Martin Hanzal. This strategy would have been that much more effective with defenseman Radko Gudas, who ranked second in the NHL with 302 hits, but he injured his wrist in pre-tournament training.
Gaining the man advantage is how Team Czech Republic will win hockey games against teams with far greater offensive firepower. In particular, Jakub Voracek is one of the world's most powerful weapons on the power play. The past two seasons combined, Voracek has 56 points, which ties Erik Karlsson of Team Sweden for sixth and is double the next player in the lineup, Tomas Plekanec (29).
Outlook
Assigned to the same group as Team Canada and Team USA, and with an inexperienced blue line and a relative lack of offensive firepower, Team Czech Republic is considered a 25-to-1 long shot to win the 2016 World Cup of Hockey.
Although the team certainly has its fair share of challenges to overcome, the outlook might not be as bleak as it seems. There's no reason Mrazek can't get hot, especially if the team forms a defensive shell in front of him and finds a way to get under the skin of more skilled opponents. The Czechs are not without exciting young talent of their own, and players such as Jakub Voracek can make even the best teams in this tournament pay for their mistakes.
Czech Republic, the 2016 World Cup of Hockey champions? It might not be likely, but it is possible.