The following is my midseason assessment of the crop of players available this June for the 2016 NHL draft, including an overall assessment of the class and profiles of my top 30 prospects.
I have seen just about every player listed in the top 30 live in the past six months, and many of them several times; additionally, I have regular conversations with scouts and executives. My analysis incorporates this information on top of statistics, adjusted for age, league, position, randomness, other important contextual information and any other important background information I've procured on a prospect.
The 2016 draft class is one I'd describe as average. Top prospect Auston Matthews is a standard No. 1 overall prospect, arguably with a lean to being above-average in that cohort. The top 3-5 group is good, with this draft lacking a little bit on the depth side toward the end of the first and into the middle of the second round. This is a very strong draft class for the USA and Finland, and one of the weakest Canadian crops in a long time.
The biggest shakeup has been the play of Patrik Laine during the past 12 months. Six months ago, I'd have said it's unlikely the first overall pick would require deep thought, but he has put himself in the conversation. Between all the prospect rankings I have done, for draft-eligible or drafted players, this was one of the hardest top overall prospect rankings I have done. It matches Taylor Hall vs. Tyler Seguin in 2010, and the four-player debate atop the 2013 draft. This is due to Laine's consistent high level of play, and game-breaking attributes on display at the world under-18 championship last spring, through league play this season, and including his dominant world junior championship play.
Now on to the top 30 prospects for the 2016 draft class. Tiers for me would be the top two players, then No. 3 Jesse Puljujarvi in his own tier, followed by Nos. 4-10 being a tier.
1. Auston Matthews, C, ZCS (NLA)
DOB: 9/17/97 | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 194
GP: 30 | G: 23 | A: 15
Matthews is a prospect of equivalent talent to Buffalo's Jack Eichel at the time of Eichel being drafted, and is the favorite to be picked first. Matthews' pure skill level is the highest in this draft class. The things he can do with the puck border on freakish, considering his frame. He also has above-average speed and great hockey IQ. He has been on a tear in the NLA since returning from the WJC. While some may scoff at the league and say his numbers aren't impressive in a global sense, recent studies have shown the NLA has actually surpassed the top Finnish league, and is nearly on par with the AHL, with many ex-NHLers making Switzerland their post-North America destination.
2. Patrik Laine, LW, Tampere (Liiga)
DOB: 4/19/98 | Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 207
GP: 33 | G: 13 | A: 14
Laine possesses elite skill, an elite power game and an elite shot. This combination of attributes makes him an absolute nightmare to check, and has allowed him to dominate the high-skill environments like the WJC, and the more physical, fast-paced environments like Finland's top professional league. His shot generation is off-the-charts good for a 17-year-old in the Liiga. His play has created a reasonable argument to be in the discussion to be picked first overall, and I would not find fault with an NHL team for doing just that this summer.
3. Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Karpat (Liiga)
DOB: 5/7/98 | Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 201
GP: 39 | G: 8 | A: 11
On top of having the second-highest scoring total ever by a player his age at the WJC, Puljujarvi has been one of the best 17-year-olds in Finland's top league in recent years. He's an exciting prospect who skates incredibly well for a big man, displays good skill and coordination, and has a good shot as well. Puljujarvi's defensive play isn't perfect yet, but he's adept at competing for pucks along the boards. For me, he's quite not on the same level as Matthews and Laine, but has made a clear distinction between himself and the rest of the pack.
4. Clayton Keller, C, USNTDP (USHL)
DOB: 7/29/98 | Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 170
GP: 39 | G: 27 | A: 49
Keller's production for the USA under-18 team can be ranked with the all-time greats like Matthews, Eichel, Phil Kessel and Patrick Kane. He has been great during USHL and college games he has taken part in for the NTDP, and should contend for the top player award at the upcoming five nations under-18 tournament. Keller is a dynamic scorer with top-end skating and skill on top of being an excellent passer. He's undersized at 5-foot-10 and not overly physical, but does show commitment to defensive play. The size is a concern that attaches risk to his projection, but I see Keller having the potential to be a game-breaking forward.
5. Matthew Tkachuk, LW, London (OHL)
DOB: 12/11/97 | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 194
GP: 38 | G: 16 | A: 54
Keith's son has done nothing but succeed at every level for the past few years, including this season in the OHL and at the WJC. He's a potential top-line winger at the NHL level, with high-end skill, great vision and hockey IQ, and a willingness to compete for pucks as hard as any prospect on this list. Any scout you talk to about him comes back raving about his hockey sense. He's not just his father's son; he's a guy who creates from the sideboards and has eyes in the back of his head.
6. Alexander Nylander, RW, Mississauga (OHL)
DOB: 3/2/98 | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 176
GP: 41 | G: 26 | A: 32
Son of Michael and brother of Leafs prospect William, Alexander Nylander has really opened eyes this season. Back in 2014, I had heard rumblings from scouts about how he might head up the 1998 birth year group, but he hadn't really taken that elite step until this season. He's a phenomenal playmaker whose hockey sense will be among the best in this year's class. He's not a blazing skater, but he can move at an above-average pace. Nylander has also shown commitment to improving his defensive game, with notable changes from where he was in August.
7. Jakob Chychrun, D, Sarnia (OHL)
DOB: 3/31/98 | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 194
GP: 44 | G: 8 | A: 32
I've made a lot of calls about Chychrun to NHL people to get a feel for their impressions this season. Many come back saying his hockey sense is not high-end, although that's not universal, as some scouts I've talked to say he's one of the smartest players in the draft; this type of divisiveness is a common occurrence in this line of work. This is to say it is not all doom and gloom over Chychrun; there are some hockey people who swear by him, even to the point they think he's in the conversation with Matthews. Ultimately, I've placed him seventh with skepticism. I love his skating, his physicality, his defensive play and his puck-moving abilities. I just wish I saw him be more of a game-breaker more often.
8. Olli Juolevi, D, London (OHL)
DOB: 5/5/98 | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 183
GP: 36 | G: 5 | A: 22
Juolevi has been very good in his first North American season, on top of an all-star performance at the WJC for Finland. He has a lot going right for him. Juolevi's puck movement is exceptional, showing elite IQ in his creativity, anticipation and pace at which he makes plays. He also is very mobile, with an easy stride that allows him to rush and stay with his checks. He's not overly physical, but still defends well and is very positionally sound.
9. Pierre-Luc Dubois, LW, Cape Breton (QMJHL)
DOB: 6/24/98 | Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 201
GP: 48 | G: 30 | A: 39
Dubois has been one of the better players in the Q as a 17-year-old, being among the league leaders in scoring while also proving to be a versatile, all-situations player for Cape Breton. He is a highly skilled player with great vision who makes great decisions on the ice. He's quick, and tough on his checks, showing a lot of grind in his game. Dubois can play both wing and center effectively, a useful trait when projecting him at the next level.
10. Dante Fabbro, D, Penticton (BCHL)
DOB: 6/20/98 | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 185
GP: 35 | G: 11 | A: 40
While there's always a little tug on the ear whenever you put a Canadian Jr. A guy this high on a rankings list, I'm pretty confident that Fabbro is a top prospect. He's a smart puck mover who can stop pressure and create transition effortlessly. He's creative with the puck, as well as being a good skater who can jump up into the play when he needs to. Fabbro has a great stick defensively, and rarely is caught out of position. He's not dynamic, but he's so well-rounded and has shown the ability to control play from the back end.
11. Michael McLeod, C, Mississauga (OHL)
DOB: 2/3/98 | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 187
GP: 47 | G: 19 | A: 35
When I kept inching McLeod up my list, there was a voice yelling in my head saying, "He hasn't dominated a level in two years!" To his credit, McLeod has shown well, if not very well at some points, but this is definitely a feel ranking based on what I've seen of him. His skating is simply incredible and he has arguably the best size-to-skating ability ratio in the draft. On top of his explosive speed, he grinds for pucks, is a solid positional center and has above-average skill. The main concern on McLeod is if his hockey IQ is at that "great" echelon -- I lean no. And, as noted above, one would like to see him dominate a level before using a lottery pick on him.
12. Alex DeBrincat, RW, Erie (OHL)
DOB: 12/18/98 | Ht: 5-7 | Wt: 161
GP: 38 | G: 35 | A: 27
There are many reasons to be pessimistic about DeBrincat. He's 5 feet 7, he always has played with a great center the past two years, his WJC ranged from forgettable to poor, etc. But at the end of the day, he just kills it. He's scoring more than 1.5 points per game this season, with few of his assists being of the secondary variety, and is registering four shots per game in the OHL this season. He's a dynamic skill player, with high-end offensive hockey sense and a competitiveness to his game unlike many. He drives the net, he attacks on the forecheck, and while he loses a lot of battles, he wins more than one would imagine. So while I definitely get why some teams would pass based on the size concerns, at some point, they've got to ask, "Why not Alex DeBrincat?"
13. Tyson Jost, C, Penticton (BCHL)
DOB: 3/14/98 | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 194
GP: 38 | G: 30 | A: 48
Jost is on pace to have the best BCHL season by a 17-year-old since Kyle Turris, playing at a two points-per-game pace. He also has showed well in international play, including an MVP performance at the World Junior-A Challenge. He's a magnificent skater with an easy, explosive stride, a high level of skill to go with it, and an above-average wrist shot. His defensive and physical games won't wow you, but despite his low quality of competition, you see some semblance of top-level defensive positioning in his game.
14. Kieffer Bellows, LW, USNTDP (USHL)
DOB: 6/10/98 | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 194
GP: 40 | G: 32 | A: 22
Bellows -- the son of former NHL player Brian Bellows -- has been very good in the USHL the last two seasons. He's a big, strong power winger who has drawn a lot of attention. Bellows has a shoot-first mentality. He has the skill to create lanes for himself, and a real top-end shot he can unleash once he gets a lane. He's also a good puck protector, battling well for pucks in the corner and using his big frame well to maintain possession. Despite his subpar skating, his defensive positioning isn't too bad, and he can show some reliable penalty-killing skill at times.
15. German Rubtsov, C, Team Russia under-18 (MHL)
DOB: 6/27/98 | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 174
GP: 18 | G: 9 | A: 11
Rubtsov has been solid all season, being a leader on the newly formed Russia under-18 team, but he really opened eyes in November with his performance at the World Junior-A Challenge, where he was one of the tournament's top players. He's an exciting player to watch. He's a great skater, makes skilled plays with the puck, and always seems to be in the right place at the right time. He's also a hard-working two-way center who can kill penalties.
16. Jake Bean, D, Calgary (WHL)
DOB: 6/9/98 | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 172
GP: 48 | G: 18 | A: 27
Bean has had a great season, being among the top scoring defensemen in the WHL on top of quality showings at major events. "NHL hockey sense, he's got it," one NHL GM said. Bean moves the puck extraordinarily well, he is a solid positional defenseman, and while his skating still concerns me, you see some flashes of improvement, particularly in evading pressure. I see a player who could be a power-play weapon as well as someone reliable enough to take top-four minutes.
17. Julien Gauthier, RW, Val-d'Or (QMJHL)
DOB: 10/15/97 | Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 225
GP: 36 | G: 34 | A: 10
Gauthier has been scoring at a torrid pace this season, notching nearly a goal per game in the QMJHL. He was also the only draft-eligible player on Canada's WJC team. Gauthier is a really fun player to watch. He's a dynamic skater and puck handler, especially given his size. When you add in a willingness to drive the net and battle for pucks, as well as a high-end shot, it makes him a very complete winger.
18. Rasmus Asplund, C, Farjestad (SHL)
DOB: 12/3/97 | Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 176
GP: 35 | G: 4 | A: 19
I remain a fan of Asplund's game, but I did expect more than he has shown so far this season. You talk to some scouts in Sweden, and they go to bat for Asplund as a potential top-six center. You'd like to see him playing more consistently at the pro level, but he has a lot of tools. Asplund is a shifty skater who handles the puck well and has great hockey sense. He projects to score but is also a reliable positional player in his own end.
19. Luke Kunin, C, Wisconsin (Big 10)
DOB: 12/4/97 | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 196
GP: 23 | G: 10 | A: 9
Kunin has been one of the best -- if not the best -- of Wisconsin's players this season as a freshman. He's fifth among NCAA freshmen in shots on goal, behind 2015 first-round picks like Brock Boeser, Kyle Connor and Colin White. Kunin brings an all-around toolkit to the table. He's quick, gritty, skilled, and can finish chances from a distance. He really has flourished this season, unlike with the USNTDP, where he played behind Matthews and White on the depth chart.
20. Tyler Benson, LW, Vancouver (WHL)
DOB: 3/15/98 | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 201
GP: 28 | G: 8 | A: 18
It hurt me a little bit to put Benson this low, because I was a big fan coming into the season, but his so-so campaign (mostly because of injury) has made it harder to project him with confidence. When healthy at points this season, we have seen a player who can impact a game in almost every facet. He's fast, strong, smart, and works hard. Benson doesn't take over games, but he's almost never a negative.
21. Max Jones, LW, London (OHL)
DOB: 2/17/98 | Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 201
GP: 42 | G: 21 | A: 18
There are very divergent opinions on Jones in the industry, and if some team wants him enough to take him among the lottery picks, it's perfectly understandable. He's a big, hard-working winger with good speed and a high skill level. He can make wow-level moments happen, and looks at times like a scoring power forward in the NHL. Other times, he hurts his team with bone-headed decisions and bad penalties that make you wonder if NHL coaches will trust him. In my view, he has at least worked on the latter issues of late, while improving his defensive play.
22. Mikhail Sergachev, D, Windsor (OHL)
DOB: 6/25/98 | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 205
GP: 48 | G: 13 | A: 24
Sergachev has been a top rookie defenseman in the CHL this season, as well as being one of Windsor's better players. He's a very good skater -- and outstanding for a 6-foot-3 defenseman. Sergachev moves the puck intelligently and quickly. Combining that with a top-end slap shot makes him a fantastic weapon on the man advantage. He doesn't shy away from using his size, as he's already quite strong for a player his age. I'd like to see him tighten up his defensive reads and gaps, but he's not a zero in that area.
23. Vitaly Abramov, RW, Gatineau (QMJHL)
DOB: 5/8/98 | Ht: 5-9 | Wt: 170
GP: 50 | G: 31 | A: 43
Abramov has been a name on the prospect radar for several years after many impressive international performances. He is one of the current scoring leaders in the QMJHL, and has several dynamic qualities. Abramov is a very good skater and puck handler, with a lot of flash in his game. He can move the puck and shoot it at above-average levels, too. He checks in at 5 feet 9, but he works hard, and tries to do his best to battle through checks by bigger defenders.
24. Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston University (Hockey East)
DOB: 12/21/97 | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 205
GP: 25 | G: 2 | A: 12
McAvoy has been one of the best freshmen in the country, logging a lot of minutes for BU. At the top of his game, McAvoy can control the play. He's a very smooth and agile skater who moves the puck very well. He's going to be a power-play guy in the professional ranks, and someone who can help immensely in the transition game. However, he doesn't shy away from physical play. His defensive positioning isn't the worst, but it certainly can use some work. I also wished he lowered the risk in his game, as he can be prone to creating bad turnovers. .
25. Kale Clague, D, Brandon (WHL)
DOB: 6/5/98 | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 179
GP: 49 | G: 3 | A: 18
I know that Clague's counting stats aren't great this season, but I still see a lot in his game that I like, and it makes me believe he can bounce back. My gut says he's still a top 15-20 prospect in this class, but I can't justify bumping him up to that range until he scores a little more. Looking at tools alone, he's a ridiculously good skater. He evades pressure with his feet about as well as any defenseman on this list. He's also a very smart two-way defender who can jump up into a rush or disrupt an attack. I don't love his puck skills, with his offense coming more from his skating and vision than creating space for himself.
26. Chad Krys, D, USNTDP (USHL)
DOB: 4/10/98 | Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 183
GP: 31 | G: 2 | A: 18
I was a big Krys fan coming into the season, but he has underwhelmed so far this campaign, not showing a ton of progression relative to the previous season. I still see a very good offensive defenseman with top-end mobility and vision who can control puck possession at the top of his game. However, he has lacked consistency this season, and his defensive play isn't air-tight either. That's not something you want to see in a smaller defenseman.
27. Samuel Girard, D, Shawinigan (QMJHL)
DOB: 5/12/98 | Ht: 5-9 | Wt: 165
GP: 47 | G: 6 | A: 43
Girard has been one of the best defensemen in the QMJHL this season and has been lighting up score sheets. He has elite agility, and when he has the puck in his own end he is almost impossible to check. Girard adds a dynamic offensive component to his game with his impressive hands and vision. He measures in at 5 feet 9 1/2 (the half is relevant when you're that small!) and has never really been known as a defensive stalwart -- but neither has Erik Karlsson. What Girard does do is tilt the ice at even strength and control a power play.
28. Logan Brown, C, Windsor (OHL)
DOB: 3/5/98 | Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 218
GP: 40 | G: 9 | A: 36
There is a lot to like about Brown. He's a 6-foot-6 center with high-end offensive talent. He handles the puck well and is one of the better playmakers in the draft. He's not fast, but he skates quite well for such a big man. Now for the bad: Brown often gets tagged by scouts I've talked to for "dogging it" with his off-puck play. He leaves you wanting on many occasions. I had to be persuaded by scouts I've talked with to put him even this high. Given his toolkit, this isn't an argument that should need to be so fiercely debated.
29. Sam Steel, C, Regina (WHL)
DOB: 2/3/98 | Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 176
GP: 50 | G: 17 | A: 29
Steel has underperformed so far this season statistically, and also compared to how I thought he'd look coming into the campaign. He's a very dynamic offensive player with plus speed, hands and vision who can make highlight-reel moments happen. He's also a smart positional player who has been quite solid defensively at times. He needs to show more physical effort and consistency in his game, as he disappeared at times this season.
30. Riley Tufte, LW, Blaine High (USHS)
DOB: 4/10/98 | Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 190
GP: 18 | G: 29 | A: 21
Tufte is part of the increasingly rare breed of top prospect to come out of the USA high school ranks, as they tend to opt for the USHL more nowadays. Tufte is a player who bleeds tools. Standing in at 6 feet 5, 200 pounds, and one of the best skaters in this draft class, Tufte is a nightmare when he's coming through the neutral zone with the puck. He also has a fair set of hands, and if he develops well, could be a real scorer in the professional ranks.
Honorable mentions
Will Bitten, RW, Flint (OHL)
Dillon Dube, C, Kelowna (WHL)
Carl Grundstrom, LW, MODO (SHL)
Pascal Laberge, C, Victoriaville (QMJHL)
Taylor Raddysh, RW, Erie (OHL)