This is my third draft rankings update this season following ones in September and November, and follows the recent IIHF World Junior Championship and the CHL's top prospects game -- with my scouting notes here on the latter.
There is a very strong top end of the draft class this season. I see drop-offs in talent level after Nos. 1, 2, 4 and 7, before starting a gradual marginal decrease in prospect value. Overall, I'd classify the draft class as strong. It's not a "super draft" -- a la the 2003 class -- but it definitely should result in general managers demanding above-average trade value in exchange for a first-round pick.
I've seen all but three of the players in my top 30 live so far this season. The top three spots on the list remain the same from the previous update, but there were some big moves elsewhere on the list:
Note: Players on the list range from 17 to 18 years old, and only three -- Zach Werenski, Sebastian Aho and Nicolas Meloche -- will still be 17 when the draft occurs in June.
1. Connor McDavid, C, Erie (OHL)
Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 190 | 2014-15 stats: 24 GP | 22 G | 39 A
Previous ranking: 1
As has been the case for a long time, McDavid is my clear No. 1 in this draft class. He's a generational talent -- click here for a detailed scouting report. While I know some within the industry view it as a race between him and Jack Eichel, I just don't see it. McDavid is special, and could change a franchise's trajectory.
2. Jack Eichel, C, Boston University (NCAA, Hockey East)
Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 194 | 2014-15 stats: 22 GP | 13 G | 23 A
Previous ranking: 2
Eichel continues to lead the NCAA in scoring despite playing fewer games than some of the other leaders. His skill level is elite, and his capacity for frequently making high-level plays is unique. He's strong, works hard and thinks the game at such a high level that he creates chances in bunches. His hockey sense allows him to be a top-end playmaker, but he's also a very good defensive forward, who has often been one of his team's top penalty killers. He could be a quality NHLer right out of the gates next season.
3. Noah Hanifin, D, Boston College (NCAA, Hockey East)
Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 205 | 2014-15 stats: 24 GP | 3 G | 11 A
Previous ranking: 3
Hanifin was fine in the top four for USA at the WJC, showing excellent two-way value for a player his age. He's a high-end if not elite skater, with a lot of skill. Defensively, he closes his gaps well, uses his stick effectively and projects as a player who can stop good forwards. Overall, his game has a high-tempo, high-energy style, though he's not the most bruising defender.
4. Mitch Marner, RW, London (OHL)
Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 163 | 2014-15 stats: 43 GP | 35 G | 56 A
Previous ranking: 6
Marner has been fantastic this season. He's an incredible overall offensive talent who has progressed off the puck, and historically his scoring is among the very best in recent years for his age. His skating, puck skills, and vision all get plus grades or better. His physical game is a bit of a concern, as I'd like to see him win some more battles.
5. Dylan Strome, C, Erie (OHL)
Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 187 | 2014-15 stats: 44 GP | 29 G | 52 A
Previous ranking: 4
Strome's big test was to see how he'd do with McDavid out of the lineup, and he scored at nearly a 1.5-points-per-game pace during that span. "He's a big center with high-end skill; you're never going to find that anywhere but the top of the draft," said one scout. He slows the play down very well, and has the offensive instincts to evade pressure at a high level. However, he's not great defensively yet, and he lacks an explosive top gear.
6. Zach Werenski, D, Michigan (NCAA, Big Ten)
Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 214 | 2014-15 stats: 18 GP | 3 G | 12 A
Previous ranking: 8
Werenski made the WJC team, and while he wasn't great, he looks so gifted offensively and overall that it's tough to keep him off the top of my board. "He's smooth as silk," said one scout. Another added that "he makes everything look easy." Werenski is at the top of his game when he has the puck, as he makes a ton of plays offensively and never looks panicked when doing so. He's pretty developed physically already, measuring in at 6-foot-2 and 214 pounds, although he doesn't necessarily play an overly physical game.
7. Oliver Kylington, D, AIK (SHL)
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 174 | 2014-15 stats: 15 GP | 2 G | 3 A
Previous ranking: 5
Kylington ended up missing the WJC due to an injury, although he wouldn't have played much of a real role for Team Sweden anyway. He's a brilliant skater and a very skilled puck mover, and makes a lot of creative plays. His offensive IQ and vision are high-end, and his total package offensively can control the game. His defense isn't perfect, but it isn't bad; if anything, I'd project him to be slightly above average defensively.
8. Travis Konecny, C, Ottawa (OHL)
Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 172 | 2014-15 stats: 42 GP | 19 G | 22 A
Previous ranking: 16
Konecny's season started a little slowly, but his offense has picked up. He's an explosive skater who jets through the neutral zone with the best in the CHL. Konecny is small, but he's tough, and he plays a fearless style of hockey. He's a skilled puck handler who sees the ice very well and makes a lot of great reads. He also has fine defensive value, and could project onto a pro-level penalty kill.
9. Ivan Provorov, D, Brandon (WHL)
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 201 | 2014-15 stats: 40 GP | 11 G | 30 A
Previous ranking: 11
Provorov was just OK at the WJC, but he's continued to be a standout in the WHL, and is among the top D-men scorers in that league. Provorov is a very skilled, yet advanced defenseman who has shown a strong commitment to North America (so there's less concern about him going back to play in Russia). He's a gifted skater and a notably above-average offensive player with good puck skills and great IQ. He's slightly undersized for a defenseman, but he's decent to solid in his own end, with good angles, positioning and stick work.
10. Lawson Crouse, LW, Kingston (OHL)
Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 212 | 2014-15 stats: 31 GP | 16 G | 7 A
Previous ranking: 18
There is a lot of debate on the London, Ontario, native these days. Crouse was very impressive as a fourth-liner for Canada's gold-medal team at the WJC, playing as well defensively for a forward his age as anyone I can remember from recent years, as well as creating offensive chances. He's an outstanding skater for a 6-4 forward, and will be an above-average skater at the NHL level. Crouse plays a tough brand of hockey, which is supplemented by his filled-out frame; he projects as an elite physical player in the NHL. He won't blow you away offensively, but he's above average in terms of puck skills and offensive ability. I'm projecting Crouse to be an above-average offensive player who is high-end defensively, playing against the opponent's best players, and he can also be one of a team's best penalty killers.
11. Jeremy Bracco, RW, USNTDP (USHL)
Ht: 5-9 | Wt: 172 | 2014-15 stats: 34 GP | 13 G | 35 A
Previous ranking: 14
Bracco was a final cut from the WJC team, but he has continued to tear it up with the USNTDP even after being pushed off the top line with super prospect Auston Matthews (who is eligible for the 2016 draft). Bracco is a dazzler with great agility, acceleration and ability to push the pace. He's very coordinated, and draws your attention with the way he creates offense out of nothing. Bracco also is quite effective killing penalties and as a shorthanded threat. His 5-9 frame is an obvious drawback, especially since he's not an overly abrasive type of player.
12. Mathew Barzal, C, Seattle (WHL)
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 181 | 2014-15 stats: 17 GP | 7 G | 11 A
Previous ranking: 10
Barzal has been out for a good chunk of the season due to a shoulder injury. When healthy, he's an outstanding skater and playmaker who possesses some unique offensive traits while being good off the puck, as well. He was the top scorer for Seattle prior to his injury, and is still seventh in team scoring despite playing fewer than half of the Thunderbirds' games.
13. Pavel Zacha, LW, Sarnia (OHL)
Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 214 | 2014-15 stats: 26 GP | 11 G | 12 A
Previous ranking: 9
As a rookie OHLer, Zacha's statistical production has left something to be desired. But when you evaluate him qualitatively, there's still a ton to like. He's a very good skater and moves at a really high level for a 6-3 forward. He's quite skilled, works hard, and is effective off the puck. The first half is part of the reason for his slide in the ranks, as he's been transitioning to North America and has not played on a strong team.
14. Jeremy Roy, D, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 183 | 2014-15 stats: 40 GP | 5 G | 34 A
Previous ranking: 7
Roy has played at a high level all season, and has put up a ton of points the past two seasons for an under-18 defenseman. He's a very skilled puck mover who can make players miss, lead a rush, and create well on the man advantage. He's not that big or that great defensively, but he's no black hole in his own end, as he can make some stops and push the play forward at even strength. Roy had a pretty big drop in the rankings here from the last time, but that's more about other players improving than anything he did.
15. Daniel Sprong, RW, Charlottetown (QMJHL)
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 192 | 2014-15 stats: 48 GP | 22 G | 32 A
Previous ranking: 17
An elite skater, Sprong is one of the most dynamic players in the QMJHL. He can push the tempo very well, and has the smooth mechanics to generate a lot of power from each stride. He has a high level of skill with the puck, he sees the ice well and also has a very good shot. Sprong just needs to bulk up, work on his defense a fair bit, and gain more consistency in his play.
16. Jens Looke, RW, Brynas (SHL)
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 187 | 2014-15 stats: 34 GP | 2 G | 4 A
Previous ranking: Honorable mention
Looke has trended up this season, establishing himself as a regular at even strength for Brynas and making Sweden's WJC team. He's a highly skilled and shifty playmaker, and is a fine skater, technically sound with solid speed. Looke has a ways to go in terms of his off-puck play (he's about average there).
17. Nick Merkley, RW, Kelowna (WHL)
Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 187 | 2014-15 stats: 45 GP | 14 G | 50 A
Previous ranking: 13
As one of the WHL's leading scorers, Merkley has been consistently impressive this season. He's an exciting offensive player who is quick and highly skilled with the puck, and he plays with a fast tempo. He's dangerous at even strength, and his physical limitations don't seem to hold him back. Once Merkley bulks up, he should be a very interesting player.
18. Evgeni Svechnikov, LW, Cape Breton (QMJHL)
Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 205 | 2014-15 stats: 37 GP | 18 G | 30 A
Previous ranking: 22
Svechnikov has had a seamless transition to the smaller North American rinks, excelling with Cape Breton this season. He's a big, strong winger who is solid on the puck and possesses a high level of natural talent. He can create chances by playing a skilled, flashy game or by showing power. His skating isn't a standout skill, but he has fine speed for a player his size.
19. Colin White, C, USNTDP (USHL)
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 183 | 2014-15 stats: 25 GP | 10 G | 14 A
Previous ranking: 12
After a bit of an injury-riddled season -- which included contracting mono -- White has begun to regain his bearings. When he's healthy, he's a very smart all-around center who makes the game look easy. He's a great playmaker who makes quick, correct decisions with the puck. He plays hard, is smart off the puck and has above-average natural talent.
20. Mitchell Vande Sompel, D, Oshawa (OHL)
Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 181 | 2014-15 stats: 36 GP | 6 G | 34 A
Previous ranking: 19
Vande Sompel has had a very interesting season. For the most part, he's been Oshawa's top defenseman, but when needed, he actually shifted to be the team's top-line center. He's a great skater, with quick, active feet and the speed to gain the zone with ease. He's skilled, but not amazingly so with the puck. However, Vande Sompel is at that very high level in terms of his hockey IQ. He's very advanced defensively and quite effective positionally for a 5-10 player.
21. Kyle Connor, C, Youngstown (USHL)
Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 183 | 2014-15 stats: 31 GP | 14 G | 25 A
Previous ranking: 15
Connor has been great in the USHL for several seasons. He plays the game with energy and pace and he's a fantastic skater. His IQ plus his skating allow him to be an effective defensive forward as well. He's not a "wow" type of dangler, but he's definitely above average in the puck skills category, with very quick hands.
22. Sebastian Aho, LW, Karpat (Liiga)
Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 172 | 2014-15 stats: 18 GP | 2 G | 3 A
Previous ranking: 27
Just a note again that there are two high-level draft prospects named Sebastian Aho this season; this one is the Finnish forward. Aho's been a very impressive prospect for a number of years, playing far ahead of his age group, and being dominant at the junior level. He's a very quick skater who sets up plays at a high level. He's got some dazzle to his game, and while he can try to do too much at times, he makes a lot of offensive plays. He's somewhat small, and not the thickest, which is his obvious area of concern. But I think that off the puck, he's decent and has at times shown defensive value.
23. Jansen Harkins, C, Prince George (WHL)
Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 181 | 2014-15 stats: 46 GP | 14 G | 37 A
Previous ranking: 21
Harkins hasn't ever really wowed me in viewings, although I don't really think that's his game, to be fair. He's an effective all-around player who can handle the puck, set up plays, and be very effective in his own end. Harkins' skating doesn't look pretty, but he gets where he needs to go, even if his stride could use some cleaning up.
24. Matt Spencer, D, Peterborough (OHL)
Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 194 | 2014-15 stats: 41 GP | 5 G | 18 A
Previous ranking: 25
Though Spencer's statistical production hasn't been great this season, I'd probably classify him more as a player you have to watch to really appreciate. He's very physical and skates very well, and I think he has offensive upside. Whether it's the team around him or the fact that part of his game hasn't developed quite enough, he hasn't broken through yet offensively.
25. Denis Malgin, C, ZSC (NLA, Switzerland)
Ht: 5-9 | Wt: 176 | 2014-15 stats: 21 GP | 2 G | 5 A
Previous ranking: 23
Based on conversations with scouts, Malgin is a projected third- or fourth-rounder. Obviously, based on the fact that he's No. 25 in these rankings, a team getting him there would have gotten a massive value. I'm a huge Malgin fan. I know he's 5-8, and I know he doesn't have gaudy numbers. But the more you watch him, the more you appreciate how much upside he has. He's a dynamic skater and playmaker who has the ability to score at the top level.
26. Erik Cernak, D, HC Kosice (Slovakia)
Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 203 | 2014-15 stats: 29 GP | 4 G | 2 A
Previous ranking: 20
My expectation is that Cernak will slide into the second and potentially even the third round, but I just see so much potential in the young Slovak. He's 6-3, skates well, is a skilled puck mover and plays the body. He hasn't played against his own age group in years, whether it be professional leagues or internationally. His decision making needs work, and he's by no means a finished product, but he's a potential two-way defenseman with size. Those don't grow on trees.
27. Anthony Beauvillier, C, Shawnigan (QMJHL)
Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 181 | 2014-15 stats: 47 GP | 33 G | 39 A
Previous ranking: Honorable mention
Beauvillier has been among the very best 17-year-olds in the CHL in terms of point production. He's a small forward, but skates pretty well, is skilled, plays very hard and will get back on defense. There are legitimate questions as to whether his skill level is high enough to succeed as a 5-10 player in the NHL, but he has good character, and can only score so many goals before those questions start to be answered by hard evidence.
28. Mikko Rantanen, RW, TPS (Liiga)
Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 209 | 2014-15 stats: 37 GP | 4 G | 11 A
Previous ranking: Unranked
Rantanen had a very good WJC, being one of Finland's top players. He's big at 6-4, uses his frame well and has very good playmaking instincts. His skating isn't horrible, but it could use work. I suspect he'll go top 15 or even top 10 in June, but I just don't see a dynamic offensive player, nor do I see a very good defensive player yet.
29. Nicolas Meloche, D, Baie Comeau (QMJHL)
Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 198 | 2014-15 stats: 44 GP | 10 G | 24 A
Previous ranking: 28
A very effective two-way defenseman, Meloche isn't necessarily high end at either side of the rink. He's an above-average skater who moves the puck well, and has a quality shot from the point. He can make defensive stops, and is also very physical, arguably too physical at times, as he can get into penalty trouble. Throughout the season, he's been used in various roles and showed that he can adapt.
30. Thomas Novak, C, Waterloo (USHL)
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 181 | 2014-15 stats: 31 GP | 8 G | 24 A
Previous ranking: Honorable mention
There's some reason to be skeptical about Novak: His production hasn't been great in the USHL, he's a slightly framed forward and he could work on his off-puck game. However, he's very talented, be it with his shiftiness in tight plays, or his high level of creativity with the puck that often leads to scoring chances.
Honorable mentions (listed in alphabetical order)
Sebastian Aho, D, Skelleftea (SHL)
Brock Boeser, RW, Waterloo (USHL)
Thomas Chabot, D, Saint John (QMJHL)
Jake DeBrusk, LW, Swift Current (WHL)
Timo Meier, RW, Halifax (QMJHL)
Michael Spacek, RW, HC Pardubice (Czech Extraliga)