SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Upon welcoming quarterback Brock Purdy and receiver Ricky Pearsall back from extended injury absences on Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers viewed their Week 11 game against the Arizona Cardinals as the most important contest on their schedule.
The thought, according to multiple players, was that at 6-4 and coming off a deflating loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the Niners had reached a tipping point in their season. Purdy and Pearsall's return, the 49ers hoped, would provide the spark they needed not just to beat the Cardinals but to break their habit of alternating wins and losses.
As it turned out, San Francisco completed the first step on that check list, beating the Cardinals 41-22 in a game that was never close. The win moved the 49ers to 7-4 overall and 4-1 in the NFC West division, placing them right in the thick of the playoff picture.
"I think it was a must win," right guard Dominick Puni said. "It's a turning point in the season ... These are the most important weeks of the season. To go get a big win like that, put up 40 points. It's a huge momentum swing for us."
The question now becomes whether the 49ers can take whatever momentum was gained in the desert and turn it into something closer to consistency. After jumping to a 3-0 start, the 49ers have developed a bad habit of winning one week and losing the next.
With a schedule that is relatively light in the coming month but much more difficult in the closing weeks, the time for the 49ers to make their playoff push is now.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Niners have a 90.1% chance to make the playoffs, the seventh highest mark in the NFL. They still have an 18.8% chance to win the division -- though both the Rams and Seattle Seahawks are considered to have a more direct line to that.
The 49ers do, however, have the fifth-easiest remaining schedule according to FPI, with only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers having an easier slate among the other NFC postseason contenders.
From that schedule, the next three games loom large. On Monday night (8:15 ET, ESPN), the 49ers host the Carolina Panthers, a surprising 6-5 upstart that is also squarely in the playoff picture. They then travel to face the Cleveland Browns, finally get a bye week and then host the Tennessee Titans. The Browns and Titans have a combined three wins on the season.
"We're positioned right where we want to be," tight end George Kittle said. "Our offense is basically healthy where we want everybody to be at. And if we can just keep rolling, keep making plays, Kyle [Shanahan] keeps scheming it up for us ... I think it's just a very lethal offense."
Indeed, if the Niners are going to make noise over the next month, the offense is going to have to do most of the heavy lifting. That already figured to be the case after losing star linebacker Fred Warner and defensive end Nick Bosa to season-ending injuries, but that offense-heavy approach is rooted in what Kittle referred to: a relatively healthy unit that boasts plenty of experience.
Against the Cardinals, San Francisco's offense benefited greatly from strong special teams plays and defensive takeaways but also flashed the big play ability it has lacked for much of the season.
While Mac Jones filled in admirably for Purdy and some of his struggles pushing the ball down the field were not his fault because of drops, Purdy seems to be more willing and capable of taking the extra hitch to take chances for big plays.
Against the Cardinals, Purdy was 2-of-4 for 55 yards and a touchdown on throws traveling 20-plus air yards. In three games this season, he's 8-of-12 for 226 yards on such throws while Jones was 4-of-16 for 122 yards in his eight games.
The Niners have averaged 6.7 explosive plays (20 or more passing yards and 10 or more rushing yards) with Purdy under center versus 5.3 with Jones so far this season. As Purdy and Pearsall round into form and the Niners potentially welcome Brandon Aiyuk back from a knee injury later in the year, those numbers could continue to climb at the most critical part of the season.
"Throughout him playing and everything, not many people have done it better than him," Shanahan said. "He's been as efficient as anyone. He's made as many big plays as anyone."
The Niners could use more of those this week against the Panthers, a game that holds plenty of leverage when it comes to the playoff chase. If Carolina wins, it will improve its playoff chances by a whopping 16.3% according to FPI. It would drop by 6.1% with a loss.
A 49ers win would improve their already healthy playoff odds by 4.7% but a loss would drop them by 12.5%. A defeat would also send them to face a ferocious Cleveland defense on a short week and send them toward an end-of-season scenario in which wins against the likes of the Indianapolis Colts, Chicago Bears and Seahawks would be necessary to reach the postseason.
All of which means, that while calling a Week 12 game a must win is a step too far, it's not far off and will apply to the two games that follow as well.
"I'm excited just with the momentum that we have going and guys being ready to go in on this challenge of finishing out the season strong," Purdy said. "We've gotten tight, we've lost some guys, which just sucks, some big names and everything.
"But guys just stepped up to the challenge, and this is what NFL football is all about. You find out who you are under pressure, but we've got the right guys in the building and we're ready for it."