EAGAN, Minn. -- By every measure, J.J. McCarthy was one of the NFL's worst-performing quarterbacks during the first two weeks of the season.
Despite a magical fourth-quarter comeback victory over the Chicago Bears in Week 1, he ranked last among qualified passers in expected points added per play (-0.36) and recorded the second-worst QBR (20.3). McCarthy fumbled a league-high three times, losing one, and tied for the second-most interceptions (three). He held the ball for an average of 3.15 seconds before throwing, second most in the NFL, and endured a league-worst 16.7% sack rate -- indications of both shaky pass protection and his own hesitation in making decisions. It all came as he attempted 41 passes, the fewest for any quarterback who played two full games over that period, and took only 95 snaps.
The most optimistic takeaway is that McCarthy -- also the NFL's youngest starting quarterback at 22 years and eight months -- simply needs time to make up for his inexperience after playing in the University of Michigan's run-based offense and then missing his rookie NFL season because of a torn meniscus in his right knee. But a high right ankle sprain, suffered in Sunday night's 22-6 loss to the Atlanta Falcons and diagnosed Monday morning, threw a sudden halt to that development plan and prompted some unexpectedly existential questions.
McCarthy's injury puts him on a recovery timetable of two to four weeks, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Veteran backup Carson Wentz will start in his place, beginning Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) and then perhaps both ends of a two-week United Kingdom road trip that follows.
If Wentz plays well and/or the Vikings play winning football with him, under what circumstances would McCarthy return to the starting lineup? Are the Vikings as equipped as they once thought to let McCarthy develop in real time while also making a playoff run? If not, how can they expect improvement off his initial performances without additional experience?
"For him, part of this journey is making sure you acknowledge what it felt like in the moment," coach Kevin O'Connell said of the time McCarthy will be sidelined. "Did I take the right footwork? Did I play with the kind of technique and fundamentals and have my eyes in the right spots? And on what plays did I do that? And what did that look like? And then what plays maybe could it have been a little bit more consistent? And then what did those plays turn out like? And then just evaluate each play as its own, but always with the same principles of playing the position."
The Vikings have a long history of unexpected playoff runs with veteran backup quarterbacks who stepped in during the season, from Randall Cunningham in 1998 to Gus Frerotte in 2008 to Case Keenum in 2017. Wentz fits a similar mold, and there is genuine optimism inside the team facility that he can steady an offense that has undergone multiple personnel changes over the past month due to injuries and the suspension of receiver Jordan Addison.
But the development of McCarthy, the No. 10 pick in the 2024 draft, will remain a top organizational priority. As unfair as it might sound, he is nearing a crossroads experienced by several other highly drafted quarterbacks in recent years. He threw 713 passes in his career at Michigan, roughly half the average of the other five quarterbacks selected in first round of the 2024 draft, and there are multiple recent examples of quarterbacks who entered the league with limited college experience and were not able to stay on the field long enough to develop beyond it.
Trey Lance is the most notable example, having thrown 318 passes at North Dakota State before the San Francisco 49ers made him the No. 3 pick in 2021. Lance has been on three teams and started five games in the NFL. A similar fate might befall Anthony Richardson Sr., who had thrown 393 passes at Florida when the Indianapolis Colts selected him at No. 4 in 2023. He is currently backing up Daniel Jones.
It doesn't always work out that way, of course. One of the most prominent examples is Matthew Stafford, the No. 1 pick by the Detroit Lions in the 2008 draft. Stafford played more in college than Lance and Richardson, having thrown 987 passes over three years at Georgia, but he struggled through injuries during his first two NFL seasons. However, after missing six games as a rookie and 13 in his second year, Stafford threw for 5,038 yards in his third season as he began a streak of eight consecutive seasons without missing a game.
"I'm not talking about one specific person," Stafford said this week, "but there's plenty of guys out there that just are unable to play through it and that's part of it. It's unfortunate. It's not a fun part of the game. You spend so much time -- I know those guys did -- preparing their body and their mind to get ready to play a full NFL season and lead their teams, and when you're not out there, it's tough and it's disappointing."
Based on the timetable Schefter reported, injuries are going to cost McCarthy at least 21 of the first 23 NFL games he otherwise could have played in. As a result, observers have been left to pick through a tiny sample size to find glimpses of what he could look like leading the Vikings offense.
O'Connell and offensive coordinator Wes Phillips both noted a 17-yard throw to receiver Jalen Nailor in Sunday night's game, for instance. McCarthy layered the ball over Falcons safety Jessie Bates III, past cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. and into Nailor's hands near the sideline at the 2-yard line.
"An excellent rep," Phillips said, noting McCarthy's precision footwork, the direction of his eyes, the timing of his decision and -- notably -- a clean pocket against a three-man Falcons pass rush. It was a routine play by NFL standards, but O'Connell called it "one of his best reps of the day."
On the next play, however, McCarthy dropped the ball as he was faking a pitch before what almost certainly would have been a touchdown pass to receiver Justin Jefferson. McCarthy recovered the ball and and threw it away to avoid a turnover, but the Vikings ended up settling for a field goal on the possession.
It wasn't an unusual sequence for a young quarterback, and it was reasonable to expect better execution the next time. For McCarthy, that will have to wait -- again.
ESPN Rams reporter Sarah Barshop contributed to this story.