It's getting to that time, folks. The 53-man rosters are all but set. Live NFL regular-season football hits your television screens in less than a week.
We know why games are won and lost in the NFL: quarterbacks, coaching and stars. Only it isn't that simple. Football is a complex game with many moving parts, and the influence of a star quarterback or a genius head coach only reaches the water's edge. Wins and losses also can be found in the key late sack from a pass rusher; the running game powered by a bolstered offensive line; and the secondary or tertiary target that shines when the primary is double-covered. We call these players X factors.
The performance of X factors has a disproportionate amount of leverage in their team's outcomes. If they're good, it might clarify an entire unit that needed just one more player. If they're bad, it might make a team one-dimensional and easily exploitable.
That's a little on what X factors are. Let's talk about what they aren't.
No quarterbacks. Every single team will greatly benefit from its quarterback playing well and terribly suffer from its quarterback playing poorly. Some quarterbacks are greater X factors than others: What if Sam Darnold is excellent in Seattle? What if J.J. McCarthy really struggles in Minnesota? But the simple fact is that all quarterbacks are X factors. So none are included on this list.
No rookies. Again, every rookie has the potential to be a franchise-changing, timeline-altering player. We know so little about the incoming class every year that the biggest surprises in preseason expectation to season reality often are the result of rookie performance. There's another article to be written about the most important rookie for each NFL team (check out our rookie guide this Saturday), but like with quarterbacks, it's not exactly in the spirit of X factors.
No coaches. Purely talking on-field contributors for this exercise. Again, a couple of guys -- including Texans offensive coordinator Nick Caley and Buccaneers OC Josh Grizzard -- easily could qualify, but that's a different article.
Every team has more than one X factor, but I tried to name the biggest one for each squad as we approach the 2025 season. Let's get into the 32 names, starting with a big-ticket free agent signing in Arizona.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals: Edge Josh Sweat
The Cardinals' defense is as well-coached as any, and it has a talented depth chart filled with useful role players. To elevate to a playoff team, Arizona needs stars -- guys who can win the late downs and the fourth-quarter plays that put the finishing touches on victories. Budda Baker is one, but we're looking for more. Those stars might come from anywhere: rookies Walter Nolen III and Will Johnson, second-year man Darius Robinson or perhaps Sweat.
Sweat's best NFL season came under Jonathan Gannon's coaching with the Eagles in 2022, when he registered 11 sacks, 15 tackles for loss and 51 pressures. Sweat has always been more of a three-down player with impactful run snaps and a modest pass-rush profile. But when third downs come, he'll be the primary pass rusher. The bad news is he'll see double-teams and chip help. The good news is that Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis will try to scheme up some one-on-ones for Sweat anyway. The Cardinals were 26th in team pressure rate last season, but Sweat alone can yank that number up if he's beating league-average left tackles.
Los Angeles Rams: WR Davante Adams
Much of the Rams' offensive success hinges on the health of quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is fighting a bad back (as well as Father Time), and offensive tackle Alaric Jackson, who missed most of training camp because of blood clots. Even in the worlds in which Jackson and Stafford are available for much of the season, a Cooper Kupp-size void appears in the offense for the first time in Sean McVay's tenure as coach. But the Rams chose to move on from Kupp, who has really slowed down in recent seasons, and replace him with a stylistically different wide receiver in Adams.
Adams is more often used in isolation on the outside than Kupp ever was and excels as a go ball receiver -- a role the Rams haven't filled in years. If Adams benefits from the easy separation offered by McVay magic and brings an additional layer of matchup danger for opposing defenses, then even Jimmy Garoppolo could excel under center. But Adams also is 33, and for as technical and timeless as his game is, he cannot go the way of Kupp by failing to produce on McVay's yards-after-catch-oriented opportunities.
San Francisco 49ers: WR Ricky Pearsall
On one hand, it feels as if any wideout can succeed in Kyle Shanahan's offense. On the other hand, the 49ers' wide receiver room hasn't been this thin in a while. With Deebo Samuel now on the Commanders and Brandon Aiyuk not expected to return until Week 6 after his complex right knee injury, San Francisco desperately needs Pearsall to immediately shoulder a bigger portion of the offensive pie.
Pearsall ended the season strong (14 catches on 18 targets for 210 yards and two touchdowns in the final two games) but was quiet beforehand. Of course, he was recovering from a gunshot wound for much of training camp. For much of this year's offseason program, he has been dealing with a hamstring injury. With Jauan Jennings also nursing a calf injury, the 49ers' wide receiver room is extremely touch and go. San Francisco needs Pearsall to be both healthy and capable of providing that late-season production on a weekly basis if it want its offense to return to its league-leading ways.
Seattle Seahawks: RB Kenneth Walker III
New Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak's offenses have been friendly to running backs. In 2021 with the Vikings, Dalvin Cook had 1,159 yards on 249 carries (4.7 yards a pop). Last year, the Saints' Alvin Kamara had only 950 yards on 228 carries (4.2 yards per attempt), but he was on a tear before the line injuries hamstrung the offense -- and Kubiak immediately got Kamara going in the air as a result.
Without question, Walker has the talent on the ground and through the air to benefit from Kubiak's offense. But Walker hasn't had a 1,000-yard season since his rookie year, as inconsistent vision and nagging injuries have limited his down-to-down success. Explosiveness is the name of Walker's game, and home runs will be there to hit if he trusts the blocking of the Seahawks' improved line. Seattle figures to be a defense-driven team either way, but that formula works way better if you trust your back to salt away close games and tight leads. Walker still needs to earn that trust.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys: WR George Pickens
The Pickens trade is one of many significant moves made this offseason, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is regarded as the single most impactful trade by the end of the campaign. The Cowboys have struggled mightily to find a sufficient WR2 opposite CeeDee Lamb since Amari Cooper departed. In 2022, tight end Dalton Schultz was second on the team in receiving with 577 yards; in 2023, it was tight end Jake Ferguson with 771 yards; and last year, it was wideout Jalen Tolbert with 610 yards.
Tolbert, a third-round pick in 2022, was one of a few missed investments at WR2. The Cowboys also extended Michael Gallup (who was hurt and never came back healthy), signed an over-the-hill Brandin Cooks in free agency and traded for Jonathan Mingo, which hasn't worked out. Pickens is unquestionably the most talented running mate Lamb has had since prime Cooper and has the capability of leading the Cowboys in targets any week. Dallas' running game looks suspect, and its defense looks beatable, so the wide receiver room really needs to help Dak Prescott reach 400-plus-yard outings for the Cowboys to compete. The Pickens-Lamb duo has legitimate Ja'Marr Chase-Tee Higgins and A.J. Brown-DeVonta Smith potential.
Adam Schefter joins "Get Up" to detail why it is unlikely we will see Micah Parsons on the field during Week 1.
New York Giants: CB Paulson Adebo
The Giants are going to pressure the quarterback. With a defensive line room of Dexter Lawrence II, Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Abdul Carter, you'd have to try not to. But we know pressure is not enough for a defense to succeed, as quarterbacks get rid of the ball faster than ever before.
The Giants' cornerbacks struggled last season: 2023 first-round pick Deonte Banks has flashed, but he failed to put together consistent weeks of strong coverage; and 2024 rookie slot Dru Phillips excels as a tackler and blitzer but can struggle to produce on the football. They need Adebo, whom they paid in free agency despite a major leg injury, to step up as a CB1. They can hide Banks from the toughest matchups and get safety help his way; they can get Phillips up onto the line of scrimmage, pressing across the board and buying time for that pass rush to arrive.
The past 1½ seasons of Adebo were CB1-caliber -- seven picks and 28 passes defensed for only two touchdowns surrendered -- but he must be healthy.
Philadelphia Eagles: DT Moro Ojomo
Many next-guy-up options were available here. Edge rushers Nolan Smith Jr. and Jalyx Hunt must replace the lost snaps of Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham, while guard Tyler Steen must step into Mekhi Becton's shoes. But I chose Ojomo, who has to replace the outgoing Milton Williams at defensive tackle, because Ojomo has the best chance to become a sudden star.
Ojomo is fresh off his best NFL season, which went underreported behind the career year from Williams. Ojomo's game is better against the run, and while he had solid pressure production (9.3% pressure rate on 248 pass rushes as compared with Williams' 12.9% on 271 rushes), Ojomo did not bring down the quarterback (zero sacks as compared with Williams' five).
But Ojomo's film was enough that the Eagles made almost no additions behind him on the depth chart, only bringing in fourth-round rookie Ty Robinson. That implies Ojomo will get all of Williams' third-and-long opportunities beside Jalen Carter. If Ojomo can turn his pressures into sacks at a league-average rate, expect him to start getting the same hype Williams did last season.
Washington Commanders: WR Deebo Samuel
Samuel was already an intriguing player when the Commanders traded for him: a wide receiver barely ever used down the field, best creating after the catch and beyond his athletic prime, but perhaps with some seasons left in the tank. As things have developed further -- the recently resolved training camp holdout from Terry McLaurin and the lack of wide receiver depth -- Samuel has become even more important.
The Commanders expect to spread and shred the field again, so Samuel figures to consistently get six or seven touches a game as a backfield option or receiver on quick run-pass options (RPOs). They need him to be dynamic, and while he wasn't the same player last season as he was prior to that, he still is above average. Samuel was 12th among all skill-position players in yards after catch (YAC) over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. (New teammate Austin Ekeler was eighth.) If Samuel doesn't bring the juice, the Commanders' options to replace his unique role are understandably thin.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears: OT Braxton Jones
The Bears have a lot of question marks on offense, but most are not make-or-break issues. If Rome Odunze doesn't completely pan out, the Bears have other pass catchers. If Caleb Williams doesn't totally exorcise his bad-sack demons, the offense can still move the ball. But one issue feels integral to a big Bears season: functional left tackle play.
There's been a massive battle, but it looks as if incumbent veteran Jones is going to fend off the challengers. Jones won the job in 2022 as an impressive fifth-round rookie out of Southern Utah, but his play has diminished since then and has been compounded by nagging injuries. Jones' best games have always looked great; it's the inconsistent showings and sudden dramatic struggles that make it difficult to scheme around him. The entire interior of the Bears' O-line was retooled, but the left tackle battle has deprived it of chemistry-building time as a unit. Jones must be a leader and a tone-setter from day one if the Bears' offense is going to be what many hope and believe it can.
Mina Kimes and Chris Canty discuss whether they expect a bigger turnaround from Caleb Williams or Bryce Young this NFL season.
Detroit Lions: CB Terrion Arnold
The Lions' embattled defense from last season is returning many key players out of the injury tent: edge rushers Aidan Hutchinson and Marcus Davenport, linebacker Derrick Barnes and, eventually, tackle Alim McNeill. The only big departure on that unit is CB1 Carlton Davis III, who left in free agency and was replaced by veteran free agent D.J. Reed.
But Reed has been a career CB2 and hopefully will remain the same in Detroit, with Arnold rising up to the challenge of opposing WR1s. A first-round pick last year, Arnold settled in nicely as a rookie after a penalty-filled September; by December, his performance in coverage reflected his improvement. Arnold will face a stiffer class of competition, and if new coordinator Kelvin Sheppard retains last season's defensive philosophy, Arnold will be placed on islands in man coverage. It's a tall ask, but Arnold has the tools to meet it.
Green Bay Packers: Edge Rashan Gary
The average NFL edge rusher (minimum 200 pass rush snaps) had a pressure rate of 12.3% last season. Gary led all Packers edge rushers at 13.4% -- the worst mark for a season in his career. Green Bay certainly would love to get more out of Gary's running mate, 2023 first-round selection Lukas Van Ness (11.2% pressure rate, only three sacks). But Van Ness didn't get a four-year, $96 million extension during the 2023 season. Gary did.
Gary is a solid three-down player, and some of his drop-off in pressure rate can be explained by what defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley asked of him. But Gary simply did not produce the sheer volume of disruption a star edge rusher needs to create on a team with deep playoff aspirations. If the Packers want to reach the Super Bowl, they'll need to win against Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata; Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell; Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke. Gary made his first Pro Bowl last season, but another level is required of him.
Minnesota Vikings: S Theo Jackson
The 2024 Vikings' defense starred three safeties: Cam Bynum and Harrison Smith each played more than 1,000 snaps, and Joshua Metellus was just behind with 991. Bynum was the deep middle player in Brian Flores' chaotic defense full of coverage traps and rotations. As such, Bynum was hugely productive on the football, tallying 12 pass breakups and five interceptions over the past two seasons.
Bynum left for Indianapolis on a big free agent deal, leaving Jackson to fill his shoes. Jackson has taken fewer than 200 defensive snaps combined over the previous two campaigns. But he has been lauded for his preparation in the Vikings' building, where he was the primary backup safety for all three of Metellus, Bynum and Smith -- three very different roles. Flores has enjoyed having a reliable safety blanket in Bynum, who allowed him to call many of his more aggressive blitzes; if Jackson can offer the same production, expect Minnesota's D to keep chugging.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons: DT Ruke Orhorhoro
The Falcons made plenty of investments across the defense in the offseason, adding rookie edge rushers to improve the pass rush and rookie DBs to fill out their secondary. But they've largely left the defensive tackle position untouched, in fact releasing one of their free agent adds (Morgan Fox) earlier this week. With David Onyemata and Kentavius Street the only veterans on the depth chart, Atlanta's defensive tackle room is as thin as any in the league.
Orhorhoro, the 35th pick in the 2024 draft, is the most likely candidate to leap to relevance. Worryingly, he saw only 148 snaps last season, spending time on injured reserve with an ankle injury then failing to break the rotation when active. This season, he'll have to take more snaps by default and hopefully win as a penetrator to disrupt plays while he settles in from a technical perspective. Even if the Falcons' young pass rushers hit or their secondary improves, a bad defensive tackle room will prove an Achilles' heel on the ground, minimizing the value of their other improvements.
Carolina Panthers: Edge D.J. Wonnum
The Panthers had the league's worst defense by team pressure rate (25.3%) last season. They jumped to 21st (29%) from Week 10 on, when Wonnum returned from injury to join the starting lineup. His running mate, Jadeveon Clowney, was released this offseason after the Panthers retooled the entire edge rusher room, adding free agent Patrick Jones II and drafting Nic Scourton (Texas A&M) and Princely Umanmielen (Ole Miss). Wonnum and DJ Johnson are the only returning players in the room.
Last season was Wonnum's first with Carolina. In 2023, during his contract season with the Vikings, he had eight sacks and 15 quarterback hits in 15 games; if the Panthers can get even that version of him on the field, it will raise the floor on the room and prevent the rookies from bearing an outsize portion of the snap count too early.
New Orleans Saints: G Trevor Penning
The right side of the Saints' offensive line looks stellar: center Erik McCoy, guard Cesar Ruiz and tackle Taliese Fuaga. If the left side can hold its own, the Saints have the sort of group that can help either young quarterback (Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough) develop behind sound production and a strong running game.
Rookie first-round pick Kelvin Banks Jr. will start at left tackle, but at left guard -- which has been a problem spot for the Saints before -- Penning slides in. A 2022 first-round selection, he has taken all but two snaps in his career at tackle, and while he is far from the first tackle flameout to try to resurrect his career at guard, his role is extremely important this season. If he's the fifth and final player for this line, expect the Saints to run the ball extremely well. Penning, for all of his struggles in pass protection, has had moments of plus run blocking.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LB SirVocea Dennis
The Buccaneers endured a ton of injuries in their back seven last season. The pass defense suffered for it, ranking 22nd in success rate against dropbacks and 24th in expected points added (EPA) per play. The LB2 position was an issue in coverage and run defense, as Dennis' early-season shoulder injury left K.J. Britt, J.J. Russell and even veteran Deion Jones filling the spot.
Tampa Bay let Britt and Russell walk, and the team signed only Anthony Walker Jr. for depth. It then released Walker before the 53-man roster cut-down deadline. It's hard to read this as anything but a ringing endorsement for Dennis' health and preparedness to fill the starting spot opposite Lavonte David.
And for good reason: Dennis' film was strong last September. He always has had issues staying on the field, but when he does, he'll discourage those middle-of-the-field targets that often hurt Tampa Bay against quality pocket passers. That plus the young additions in the secondary could get the Bucs' defense punching at the weight of the offense in 2025.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos: CB Riley Moss
Only three outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps were targeted more than Moss last season. Not because he was a bad player -- he allowed 7.6 yards per target, just above the average (7.4) for outside corners -- but because that's what happens when you play opposite Pat Surtain II: Teams throw it at you. Consider the late-season game he played against the Bengals in which Cincinnati eschewed the Ja'Marr Chase-Surtain matchup to target Tee Higgins against Moss: 8 targets, 7 catches, 101 yards and 2 scores.
Higgins is perhaps the best WR2 in football, and Moss was just off an MCL sprain. His film was a lot better than his coverage numbers imply -- he lost a lot of contested catches and should expect some positive regression there. But the target density isn't going away, especially now that the Broncos have improved at slot corner with first-round pick Jahdae Barron. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph wants to play man coverage and blitz, so opposing quarterbacks will default to challenging Moss with back-shoulder fades and dare him to make them pay at the catch point. Moss' first season as a starter was encouraging, but he'll need to take another step for the Broncos to remain atop the defensive charts.
Kansas City Chiefs: S Jaden Hicks
There are a few key names for the three-time AFC champs as their roster consistently churns, including left guard Kingsley Suamataia and corner Kristian Fulton. But I'm focused on Hicks, a 2024 fourth-rounder tasked with stepping into Justin Reid's vacated shoes.
Reid was with the Chiefs for only three seasons, but those seasons all brought Super Bowl appearances and masterful Steve Spagnuolo game plans. Reid was the quarterback of that defense -- versatile enough to play anywhere on the field, tight enough in man coverage to solve opposing tight ends and always good for a timely tackle in space on third down. He was a consistent mistake-eraser, and for as much as I like Hicks -- who looked quick and smart as a rookie -- it's unlikely he brings that level of steady, heads-up production. Expect to see Hicks tested in coverage early, but it might be Reid's reliable tackling against the run that is most missed early in the season.
The "Get Up" crew explains why the Chiefs will be hungry for redemption after their lopsided defeat in the Super Bowl.
Las Vegas Raiders: C Jordan Meredith
The Raiders plan to start Meredith at center. He has never made a regular-season snap at center in college or in the pros. They have 2024 second-rounder Jackson Powers-Johnson, a college center at Oregon, on the roster. But Powers-Johnson is playing right guard.
I don't know exactly what they're cooking. Stylistically, Powers-Johnson is a bulky and boxy lineman, whereas Meredith moves a little easier. I'm assuming offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has a vision for which body types work in which position in his running game and has sculpted his offensive line accordingly. But still, there's a guy snapping who hasn't snapped before! That's a big deal.
If Meredith and Powers-Johnson settle into their respective roles, the Raiders can have a solid line. If there are hiccups in pass protection or snap delivery that lead to a midseason shuffling, the shifting continuity could spell problems across a unit that needs time to jell.
Los Angeles Chargers: Edge Tuli Tuipulotu
Tuipulotu had 8.5 of the quietest sacks you ever saw -- or perhaps didn't see -- last season. He was a low-pressure, high-sack player -- and as we know, pressure is the stickier stat. Still, some players have a knack for splashy tackles behind the line of scrimmage, and he is one of them. In run defense we see the same sensation: By NFL Next Gen Stats' charting, he was below average in total run stops but above average in stuffs -- negative plays for the offense.
Tuipulotu cannot just be a splash player this go-round, though. He split snaps with Bud Dupree and Joey Bosa (when the latter was healthy) last season. Bosa is now off the roster, without much new depth behind. Tuipulotu will be a full-game starter, playing north of 70% of the snaps on a weekly basis opposite Khalil Mack -- and you know where opposing offenses will send their pass protection help on third-and-long. If Tuipulotu continues generating explosives on an increased snap count while also finding more down-to-down consistency, he'll be one of the league's most impactful No. 2 edge rushers.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills: WR Keon Coleman
For the umpteenth consecutive offseason, the Bills are looking for a way to break through the AFC playoff field. Their offense is plenty capable of it, with offensive coordinator Joe Brady helming a precise passing game and brawling rushing attack that, with the ever-looming threat of Josh Allen wizardry, presents too much for defenses to handle. But there's still the lurking question: Does this team have a WR1? A man coverage beater, a go-to third-down safety valve? A new Stefon Diggs?
The Bills have an excellent slot in Khalil Shakir, but Coleman is the player they really need to emerge on the outside. He is not an elite separator, but succeeds as a ball winner. That's the sort of player who needs time to develop trust and chemistry with his quarterback, as Allen must be willing to throw to Coleman even when he's covered. In Year 1, the relationship was not yet there. But if Coleman can become a Tee Higgins-esque receiver over the middle of the field and in the low red zone, he'll introduce a new, physical facet that the Bills missed at times last year. Perhaps then this offense can finally get over the hump.
Miami Dolphins: CB Storm Duck
Many NFL fans will be flabbergasted to discover that the Dolphins are employing a cornerback named Storm Duck, but here we are. Duck was a high-caliber recruit whose college career was lampooned by injury, but he made the Dolphins' roster last year as a UDFA and played over 300 snaps because of injuries. He took his rookie lumps as you'd expect of a UDFA, but he looks physically like he belongs.
Duck is now thrust into a starting role following the substantial retooling of the secondary, and might even be the "CB1" -- not that they will travel him with star receivers or anything. The Dolphins' front seven should actually be pretty solid, so any ounce of quality play from their defensive backfield will go a long way into maximizing the effect of that pass rush. A lot of eggs in Duck's basket this season, if you will.
New England Patriots: WR Stefon Diggs
The Patriots got a very encouraging rookie season out of quarterback Drake Maye, who looked the part as a processor and as a playmaker, especially as he endured a terrible offensive line, terrible receiver play and not much better offensive coordination. The new Patriots brass was heavily involved in the veteran wide receiver market this year, eventually landing on 31-year-old Diggs to be the WR1 as they look to keep Maye on his positive developmental track.
Diggs is recovering from a torn ACL in Week 8 last season, but reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. He was averaging 2.0 yards per route run last season on a 25.3% target rate, both above league average for an NFL wide receiver (minimum 200 routes). True, he wasn't used as much downfield (8.7 air yards per target, a career low). But he was a reliable winner in the short-to-intermediate areas, and some of that usage can be explained by the roles of his teammates, Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
Diggs needs to be hidden from press and protected from vertical routes more than a dream WR1. But if he can remain a winner on breaking routes, then Josh McDaniels can use formation and motion to hide him from physical corners at the line. If Diggs is humming in this offense, the Patriots' passing game should see a much higher floor.
New York Jets: RB Breece Hall
The Jets have made no secret of their intention to run the football as much as they can this season, and rightfully so. They have a strong interior offensive line, a great rushing quarterback in Justin Fields, and a scary two-headed backfield between Hall and second-year pro Braelon Allen. That is if Hall can be the player he once was.
Hall averaged a screaming 5.8 yards per carry through seven weeks in 2022, his rookie season. An ACL and meniscus tear ended that campaign before we could find out if that number regressed to the mean. Since the injury, Hall has struggled to find explosives at nearly the same rate, but he should be afforded more space in a Fields backfield than he got from the Aaron Rodgers-authored offense that lacked creativity in the running game.
Hall did emerge as a receiver while he struggled in the ground game the past two seasons -- he had 76 catches in 2023 and another 57 last year. His ability to turn a designed swing or screen into a chunk gain will be hugely important for Fields, who has always struggled to create a reliable passing game on his own.
If Hall can be one of the league's best pass-catching backs and get back to his home-run-hitting form, the Jets' three-headed rushing attack will stress out enough defenses that they have a functional offense. But if he continues to flounder behind the line of scrimmage, expect him to lose snaps to Allen.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens: LB Trenton Simpson
The Ravens entered last season with a ton of confidence in Simpson as their LB2 besides Roquan Smith. But the quality of play wasn't there, and he lost almost all of his snaps to Malik Harrison and Chris Board by the end of the season. A project linebacker whom the Ravens drafted in the third round in 2023, Simpson always looked the part -- fluid mover, explosive first step -- but he got bamboozled by misdirection and swallowed up by size far too often in 2024.
With another offseason to catch up on the mental aspects of the game, the Ravens are giving Simpson the reins once again. Board and Harrison left in free agency, leaving Simpson unimpeded as the starter next to Smith. Baltimore had the best defense in the league down the back half of last season, when Simpson was largely shelved. So expect opposing offenses to immediately try to attack him in space and force him to find the ball quickly. He needs to rise to the call in a big way for the Ravens to retain their form.
Cincinnati Bengals: CB Cam Taylor-Britt
The volatility of cornerback play can be well described by Taylor-Britt's past two seasons. In 2023, he saw a target on 16.3% of his coverage snaps, allowed 2.6 yards of separation on average and had a 49.2% success rate. Last season, he was targeted on 16.0% of his coverage snaps, allowed 2.4 yards of separation and had a 49.1% success rate. Pretty similar, right?
Wrong! Taylor-Britt surrendered 0.41 EPA per target last season against the 0.06 he had the season before. He failed to come down with a pick after snagging four in 2023; he allowed a completion percentage 8.1% points over expectation the season after coming in 2.2% points under expectation. Playing corner is just plain tough, and sometimes, you break bad.
Taylor-Britt is still a quality player, but he likely needs a defense that lets him play more man coverage, and he needs his confidence back to boot. The Bengals have gaps to plug all over the defense, but CB2 is one of the most glaring -- and that's only the problem if he is for sure the lockdown CB1. Here's hoping.
Cleveland Browns: Edge Alex Wright
The Browns' defense was lackluster in 2024 after being dominant in 2023 for several reasons, including cornerback injuries and a lack of talent at linebacker. But they also didn't have great pass-rush depth. While Myles Garrett is a one-man wrecking crew, the rest of the defensive line must be functional enough to punish teams that overwhelmingly dedicate resources to stopping Garrett -- the Browns struggled with that in 2024.
To that end, they drafted Mason Graham with the No. 5 pick, and they also return 2022 third-round pick Wright. It looked as if the lightbulb was coming on for him in the back half of the 2023 season, and he was expected to take a larger chunk of the snaps and rush opportunities in 2024 before a torn triceps ended his season in Week 4. His absence created room for the growth of Isaiah McGuire, another important young rotational player, but expect Wright to get the first crack at starting opposite Garrett as the Browns look to rebuild the stable of pass rushers they've typically enjoyed under coordinator Jim Schwartz.
Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Broderick Jones
If I could list only one huge X factor for the season, it might be Jones. The Steelers' offensive line, from left guard to right tackle, is exciting: Veteran left guard Isaac Seumalo is solid, second-year center Zach Frazier looks like a future Pro Bowler, second-year right guard Mason McCormick is a hit for sure and second-year right tackle Troy Fautanu sure looks the part this preseason as he returns from a knee injury. For a team that wants to run the football at all costs and needs to protect an immobile aging quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, the success of this young line is critical.
That brings us to Jones. A 2023 first-rounder, he has spent most of his career at right tackle, as he couldn't unseat veteran Dan Moore Jr. from the left side. The film at right tackle was at times thrilling -- he is a physically gifted player with dominant flashes in the running game -- but often infuriating, filled with mental lapses and poor penalties. Jones now flips to the left side to replace Moore, and a substantial leap in his pass protection is needed so Rodgers can deliver the final gasp of elite play the Steelers are hoping to draw from him.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans: RB Nick Chubb
There are too many X factors for the Texans. The offensive line is just one, but the unit needs so many positions to break just right that it will probably remain unreliable. But even lines that struggle in pass protection can win as run blockers, and the Texans need to be able to run opposing defenses out of two-high shells -- star quarterback C.J. Stroud saw split safety defenses on 49.4% of his dropbacks last season, a big leap from the 42.8% he enjoyed as a rookie. And to that end, they need Chubb to rediscover something lost.
Last we saw a healthy Chubb, he rushed for 1,525 yards in the 2022 season. He tore his MCL (and damaged his ACL) early in the 2023 season and hasn't looked the same since. The Texans, who were scrambling for RB depth after Joe Mixon's ankle injury lingered long through the offseason and now into the regular season, took the long shot that Chubb could return to form now two calendar years removed from the major knee injury. If the Houston line is going to be hot and cold, he needs to make up the difference by maximizing the rushing lanes when he gets them and minimizing losses with elusiveness behind the line of scrimmage. If he can't, the Texans' offense becomes one-dimensional.
C.J. Stroud joins "First Take" to discuss how the Texans' offensive line has improved as a unit to protect him better in the 2025 NFL season.
Indianapolis Colts: C Tanor Bortolini
The quarterback position has dominated headlines in Indianapolis, but there's another, critical storyline to track: the offensive line. Ryan Kelly is not starting as the Colts' center for the first time since he was drafted in 2016. In his place is Bortolini, a 2024 fourth-round selection who played more than 300 snaps at center in relief of the injured Kelly a year ago.
Bortolini looked pretty solid, but a new center is a new center -- especially important when the quarterback is new, as well. We already saw a major protection miscue in the Colts' preseason with Anthony Richardson Sr. under center. When a young center takes the helm with a quarterback new to the system, as Week 1 starter Daniel Jones is, it's easy for assignments to get missed in pass protection -- and the running game can suffer the same errors.
I liked what I saw on Bortolini's film, and his movement skills will shine on screens and perimeter runs. How high is his ceiling as an anchor in pass protection and pre-snap processor? It remains to be seen.
Jacksonville Jaguars: OT Anton Harrison
With new coach Liam Coen come high hopes for the Jaguars' offense -- he just authored a huge offensive leap for Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers last season. But Coen doesn't get to bring the offensive line with him, and Tampa Bay's line was the secret sauce to its success. In Jacksonville, additions have been made to bolster the group -- veteran interior players Patrick Mekari and Robert Hainsey, as well as rookie third-round pick Wyatt Milum. But the tackle spots remain largely untouched.
The Jags need more from Harrison, a 2023 first-round pick who started the past two seasons at right tackle. He was a young draftee -- he just turned 23 -- and has flashed plenty. But he can lose to technicians and to power alike, and his bad plays tend to snowball as he loses confidence or starts guessing. The Jaguars' line won't hold a candle to Tampa Bay's, so if it's going to be an above-average unit, Harrison must smooth over the wrinkles in his game and deliver steadier performances.
Tennessee Titans: CB L'Jarius Sneed
Be honest -- did you remember Sneed was a Titan? He was all the rage in 2023 as a dominant press-man corner for the Chiefs with positional versatility -- but after their Super Bowl win, they traded him to Tennessee in lieu of signing him to a market-setting extension. He was meant to be a linchpin of new coordinator Dennard Wilson's defense, but he was shaky in September and injured by October, missing the rest of the season with a quadriceps injury.
Sneed is back, having taken a cautious road back to full recovery in the hopes that he can hit the ground running in 2025. The rest of the Titans' secondary, including young corners Jarvis Brownlee Jr. and Roger McCreary, is ready to take a big leap. But they need Sneed to recover his Chiefs form as a physical winner and WR1 eraser. If he does, don't be surprised if this defense is a top-10 unit by the end of the season.