It's playmaker rankings time. Each summer, I run through the NFL and sort each team's rushers and pass catchers to see which teams have given their quarterback the best playmakers at running back, wide receiver and tight end heading into the season. Playmakers aren't everything, but as the Eagles showed in 2024, teams can absolutely overwhelm defenses if they have multiple superstars capable of taking a pass or a run to the house on any given snap.
Now there's an important distinction to make here. These are not rankings of the league's best offenses. These are the best sets of playmakers, where I'm trying to separate the production of running backs, wide receivers and tight ends from the quarterbacks, offensive lines and coaching staffs with which they play. Think about the question this way: If every team had a league-average quarterback, offensive line and playcaller along with average luck in a given season, who would have the NFL's best offense in 2025?
To figure that out, I tried to use advanced metrics, adjusting for elements such as pace and opportunity, to see how players performed on a snap-by-snap basis. It's a lot easier for a wide receiver to rack up yards playing with Joe Burrow and running 35 routes per game than it is to thrive with 20 routes per game and the likes of Mac Jones throwing passes on a regular basis. Ja'Marr Chase is a transcendent, scheme-independent superstar. It's not as easy to make the same case for, say, Andrei Iosivas or Mike Gesicki.
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As I tried to project performance independent of quarterback and offense to rank these teams, I considered a few factors:
This is only about 2025 on-field performance. I'm leaving stuff like contract value and long-term projections out of the equation. All I'm concerned with is what each player might do over the 17 games in the upcoming season and what that would look like in a league-average offensive architecture.
To do that, I'm trying to use recent history and other factors to project performance. While aging curves can't be perfectly applied to any one individual player, we know those in their mid-20s are more likely to sustain their performance or grow than similarly productive players in their mid-30s. It's impossible to perfectly project what each 2025 draft pick will do, but I can use the historical performance of players drafted in similar spots to guide our expectations. The best way to project someone such as Raiders wide receiver Jack Bech, the 58th pick in April's draft, is to look at the historical production from wideouts taken toward the end of Round 2.
Injury histories and suspensions matter. I can't see the future, but it would be foolish to not consider a player's recent track record of health in projecting what they might do next season. Tee Higgins is a star on a snap-by-snap basis, but he also has missed 10 games over the past two seasons with lower-leg injuries. Christian McCaffrey has been an MVP hopeful when healthy, but he has missed huge chunks of three of the past five seasons. I'm treating players such as Higgins and McCaffrey with a wider range of outcomes than guys such as CeeDee Lamb or Najee Harris, who have much better track records of staying healthy.
I don't know exactly how league investigations will pan out, but for a player such as Jordan Addison, there appears to be a clear risk of a potential suspension because of an upcoming court case. On the other hand, I'm not expecting potential hold-ins such as Terry McLaurin to miss meaningful time.
Wide receivers are weighted more heavily than running backs or tight ends. In the current NFL, the high point for a running back or tight end in terms of average salary is Saquon Barkley's new deal, which pays him $20 million per season.
Twenty-one different wide receivers have average salaries north of that mark. Eight wideouts make $30 million or more on their deals. This is a league that, even after spectacular seasons by a number of backs last season, still leans heavily toward valuing wide receivers over their brethren.
As a result, these rankings value elite wide receivers over elite running backs and tight ends. Outside of the true superstar backs and tight ends, the league also values very good and even above-average wideouts over most halfbacks and inline tight ends. I'll generally lean toward teams with better depth charts at wide receiver over teams whose talents are focused at running back and tight end, although I'm not going to ignore offenses that have great backs and tight ends.
The focus is on elite players and a team's top five contributors. Having great depth doesn't hurt, but if you gave NFL teams $50 million to work with at wide receiver, most would prefer to add Justin Jefferson and a few solid players around him than, say, five wideouts who make $10 million per year. Teams can win with the latter formula, as the Chiefs did without a recognized top wideout in 2022 and 2023, but that's much harder to do without Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce elsewhere on the roster.
Since teams can field five playmakers at a time, my focus here is on the five best players each team can line up at running back, wide receiver and tight end, with a further emphasis on the top playmaker for each team. I considered players outside that top five as tiebreakers between two close teams and I might mention them below, but the emphasis is on the guys who expect to see the most snaps.
I found ESPN's advanced receiver tracking metrics to be helpful in evaluating players independent of their quarterbacks; you can find details on how they're calculated here. No number is perfect, so I tried to align what the data suggested with what I saw from watching these players during the past few years on film.
With so many talented young wideouts flooding the league over these past few years, there aren't any truly bereft teams in the way there might have been toward the bottom of the rankings in previous years. That's good news for the 32nd-ranked team, which will hope to make life easier for the top player taken in April's draft.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
32. Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard looked better than he did while recovering from a fractured fibula with the Cowboys in 2023, but Tennessee's lead back ranked 20th out of the 23 players with at least 200 carries in success rate. The receiving efficiency he showed in Dallas before the injury didn't come back, either, as he often was reduced to a safety valve. Tyjae Spears had a better success rate, but virtually no explosiveness; just two of Spears' 84 carries went for more than 12 yards. The hope will have to be that an improved offensive line and another year under legendary assistant coach Bill Callahan will unlock the run game.
No. 1 pick Cam Ward's group of receivers are ... well-seasoned. Tyler Lockett, 32, was a cap casualty in Seattle whose numbers were way down during his final year with the Seahawks. He joins to link up with 30-year-old Calvin Ridley, who was better moving around the formation in Tennessee after being trapped on the outside in Jacksonville, but he dropped seven passes and wasn't always the reliable target a struggling group of quarterbacks needed. Van Jefferson, a second-round pick in 2020, might be valued for his blocking and professionalism, but he has averaged 0.7 yards per route run over the past two seasons. This feels like a group where there could be three new starters in 2026.
Rookie fourth-rounder Elic Ayomanor has the upside to push for a starting role and a leg up on a division rival; his best game at Stanford came in 2023, when a fair amount of his 294 receiving yards came past, over and through Colorado cornerback Travis Hunter, who will see Ayomanor twice a year with the Jaguars.
31. Carolina Panthers
Well, the Panthers certainly keep trying to add receivers. This year, it's No. 8 pick Tetairoa McMillan, who they hope fills the same role Mike Evans did for coach Dave Canales when he was coordinating the 2023 Bucs' offense. A thriving McMillan will allow all of Carolina's wideouts to drop one spot in the rotation, which would suit many of them. Looking back at the Panthers' 2024 class, I find myself more intrigued by undrafted free agent Jalen Coker than second-round pick Xavier Legette, as he averaged a respectable 1.9 yards per route run to Legette's 1.3. Outside of veteran Adam Thielen, who continues to produce at age 34, there's a lot of projection here.
With Jonathon Brooks out for the season, the backfield will run through Chuba Hubbard, which is well-deserved. Hubbard is patient and powerful; his burst between two unblocked Cardinals defenders to score a game-winning in touchdown in overtime on his final snap of the 2024 season might have been Carolina's offensive highlight of the season. The front office did well to bring in veteran Rico Dowdle, who was a league-average starting back for the Cowboys when given the opportunity, as Hubbard's backup.
30. New England Patriots
Do you believe in Stefon Diggs? ESPN's receiver score does, with the tracking metric placing the then-Texans wideout third among all wideouts before he tore his ACL in midseason. At 31, it seems risky to project Diggs to immediately return to that form, let alone his peak years with Josh Allen in Buffalo, but even a limited version of him would comfortably be the best wideout on the New England roster.
There isn't really a Plan B as the lead receiver without Diggs in the mix. Mack Hollins and Pop Douglas are complementary players. Rookie third-rounder Kyle Williams will offer some much-needed speed, but he's not entering the league as a complete receiver who can win at all levels. Ja'Lynn Polk, a second-round pick last year, had an unbelievably bad rookie season, averaging 0.4 yards per route run. That figure ranks 147th out of 153 wide receivers taken with a first- or second-round pick since 2007. Just about everybody else at the bottom of that list failed to turn things around and live up to their predraft projection.
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson has struggled with efficiency in a lead role over the past two seasons. You can understand that amid dismal offensive line play, but he also fumbled a whopping seven times on 240 touches last season, a figure the Patriots can't afford to live with again. Rookie second-rounder TreVeyon Henderson might not have the size to absorb a full-time workload as the starter, but barring a resurgence from Stevenson, he should be able to take over as the lead back in New England's rotation as the season goes along.
29. Cleveland Browns
One of the few success stories for the Browns last season came at wide receiver. Once Deshaun Watson was sidelined and Amari Cooper was traded, Jerry Jeudy finally lived up to expectations as a potential No. 1 receiver. From Week 8 onward, his line prorates over a full season to 117 catches for 1,637 yards. Drops are perennially a concern for him -- and running the second-most routes of any wideout over that stretch helped -- but his 2.4 yards per route run over those final 10 games was good enough to rank 21st among all wide receivers.
After being inserted into the rotation by the Cooper trade, Cedric Tillman also briefly flashed starter upside, although he missed the final six games (concussion). The Browns became the latest team to add Diontae Johnson this offseason, allowing the former Steelers, Panthers and (briefly) Ravens wideout to make further strides toward completing his tour of the AFC North. David Njoku wasn't able to build on his success after the catch from 2023, as the oft-injured tight end fell from seventh in yards per route run to 25th at his position. Dropping seven of the 97 targets thrown his way didn't help.
With franchise icon Nick Chubb moving on, the Browns will rely on a rotation at running back. Jerome Ford averaged 5.4 yards per carry, but that figure was buoyed by two long runs late in the season, including a third-and-forever draw against the Chiefs for a 62-yard score and a 66-yarder against the Bengals where a linebacker filled the wrong gap. Those plays count, of course, but I would be skeptical of him breaking 60-plus yarders regularly again. Second-rounder Quinshon Judkins might take the lead role, but fourth-rounder Dylan Sampson could end up as the most explosive back of the trio.
28. Buffalo Bills
This probably feels low for one of the league's best offenses, but star quarterback Josh Allen has been removed from the equation. While general manager Brandon Beane might disagree, this is likely the least-imposing group of receivers in the NFL on paper. Khalil Shakir continues to improve and averaged an impressive 2.4 yards per route run last season, but virtually every other Buffalo pass catcher failed to take a leap forward. Dalton Kincaid failed to top 55 receiving yards in a game. Second-round pick Keon Coleman averaged 19.2 yards per catch, but he wasn't able to command a consistent role in the lineup and had just three catches on 46 routes in the postseason. Free agent addition Curtis Samuel was often anonymous, and while Mack Hollins exceeded expectations, he has been replaced by former Chargers wideout Joshua Palmer.
The breakout belonged to running back James Cook, whose touchdown rate rebounded way past the mean. After racking up just four scores on 326 carries between Years 1 and 2, he scored 16 times on 207 carries in Year 3. Cook has proved to be a great zone runner and showed off more big-play ability in 2024, but I'd be surprised if his touchdown total didn't land somewhere between two and 16 this season. There's a very useful running back rotation between Cook, sophomore Ray Davis and third-down option Ty Johnson, but with these rankings weighing receivers over backs, the Bills fall toward the bottom of the charts.
Mike Greenberg and Louis Riddick detail the Bills' Super Bowl chances.
27. New York Jets
Garrett Wilson continues to plug on. Justin Fields will become the ninth NFL quarterback to throw passes in Wilson's direction, and without Davante Adams in the mix, the Jets' passing attack will go as far as Wilson can take it. He has officially inherited the role played by a college predecessor in Terry McLaurin, who managed to top 1,000 yards virtually every season no matter who or what the Commanders mustered up at quarterback. McLaurin finally has his quarterback in Jayden Daniels; let's hope Wilson either has his or finds it soon, because he would be a superstar with better quarterback play.
The Jets' other potential star playmaker from the 2022 draft isn't heading in the right direction. Breece Hall was able to stay healthy for most of 2024, but he topped 100 rushing yards just once and had more fumbles (six) than rushing touchdowns (five). In a contract year, he will have to fend off Braelon Allen, whose larger frame (6-foot-1, 235 pounds) could be valuable for a team that should build through the run with Fields under center. Hall doesn't have to be ruthlessly efficient, but with Fields drawing more attention by changing the numbers on the ground, I want to see more of the explosiveness and big-play ability he showed at his best.
Nothing about the rest of the receiving corps suggests the Jets should expect to fling the ball around with success. Allen Lazard got off to a hot start last season, but after a midseason injury and the arrival of Adams, he was essentially being paid to run wind sprints down the stretch. (He also took a pay cut in April.) Malachi Corley, taken with the first pick of the third round a year ago, had 16 receiving yards. The offseason additions included veteran wideout Josh Reynolds, who was cut in midseason by the Broncos, and second-round tight end Mason Taylor, who plays a position where it's often difficult to make an impact as a rookie, Brock Bowers aside.
26. New York Giants
Malik Nabers lived up to the hopes of Giants fans last season, overcoming dismal quarterback play to rack up 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie. Nabers had drop issues, including a late whiff that would have put the Giants in position to beat the Commanders in September, but he was easily the most dynamic receiver the organization has put on the field since the early days of Odell Beckham Jr. With improved quarterback play in Year 2, Nabers could challenge to rank among the league's most productive wideouts.
Beyond Nabers, there's not a ton. Darius Slayton's ability to win deep has been marginalized in an offense that didn't often throw deep with Daniel Jones, and the veteran averaged just 1.2 yards per route run last season. Wan'Dale Robinson has almost exclusively been limited to a gadget role, averaging a league-low 5.0 yards per target in 2024. Rookie tight end Theo Johnson came in at 1.0 yards per route run and seemed to struggle trying to catch passes in the flat, although he did have a couple of big gains up the seam in the midseason on throws that might be featured more often with the Giants' new quarterbacks.
Running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. was thrust into an impossible position as Saquon Barkley's replacement and had a quietly solid season with one significant problem: five fumbles, which likely gave the Giants pause as they decided whether to hand the job over to him on a full-time basis this offseason. Fourth-round pick Cam Skattebo is sure to become a fan favorite in Jersey, but the 225-pounder might struggle to run through NFL tacklers as easily as he did in college.
25. Chicago Bears
Well, my 2024 ranking didn't go well, did it? The Bears got disappointing performances from just about every one of their skill position players, with veterans DJ Moore and Keenan Allen looking as if they were running underwater (or wishing they were) in a scheme that didn't play to either's strengths. Rookie first-rounder Rome Odunze simply wasn't thrown many catchable balls, as his 58.9% expected catch rate was the league's sixth lowest for receivers with at least 100 targets. He managed only a 54.0% catch rate, which suggests he wasn't an entirely innocent party in the equation.
The arrival of new coach Ben Johnson suggests the offense will be put in much better positions to succeed, and indeed, it will hardly be a shock if the Bears go from one of the league's worst schemes to one of its best. Some layups for Odunze to separate and run away from defenders would be helpful. Johnson needs to light a spark under Moore, who appeared to grow numb amid his seventh consecutive losing season. Johnson also needs to find ways to create yards-after-catch opportunities for rookie second-rounder Luther Burden III, who will take over Allen's role in the lineup.
Johnson excelled in finding ways to maximize the talents of his running backs and tight ends in Detroit, though, and that might be what makes the Bears. D'Andre Swift averaged 5.5 yards per carry in 2022, his lone season with Johnson as offensive coordinator, although it was also simultaneously clear the Lions didn't trust him as their top back. Can jack-of-all-trades Roschon Johnson or buzzy seventh-round pick Kyle Monangai push Swift for Chicago's primary back role? And if the new coach leans into 12 personnel groupings, will Colston Loveland turn into his Sam LaPorta and torment linebackers up the seam? There are reasons to be optimistic about Chicago's playmakers, but that was also the case a year ago.
24. New Orleans Saints
It's tough to figure out what to do with Chris Olave, who finished fourth in ESPN's receiver score but was limited to six games and a handful of snaps in two others by concussions, with the star wideout having suffered four in three years. He's a legitimate No. 1 receiver when on the field, but it seems impossible to form any realistic projection for how often we'll see the 25-year-old this season.
Deep threat Rashid Shaheed has been extremely efficient when healthy, but he missed the final 11 games (meniscus) in 2024. The Saints made a move to address their depth at the position by bringing back former first-rounder Brandin Cooks, but the well-traveled receiver has seen his per-route metrics crater over the past three years, even while spending 2023 and 2024 in a pass-happy Cowboys offense. His 48% catch rate last season was way out of line with his prior career average (approaching 66%), so don't be surprised if we see something more out of him.
As for Alvin Kamara, it might be time to face reality. He has spent half his career with Hall of Famer Drew Brees and half without, and outside of the occasional bright spell (such as his hot two-game start to the 2024 campaign), he has been a different running back without an elite passing game making his life easier. Though he's still an effective receiver on a per-route basis by running back standards, he's probably miscast as a three-down back and would be far more effective as the receiving back in a rotation:
23. Denver Broncos
Sean Payton is excited about his new charges in Denver, but unless RJ Harvey, Evan Engram and Pat Bryant become the new Alvin Kamara, Jimmy Graham and Michael Thomas overnight, I might chalk that up to idle spring and summer optimism. I wouldn't be surprised if one of those guys breaks out and lives up to lofty expectations, but asking everybody on the roster to have a 95th percentile season versus their prior production or draft status just by virtue of playing under Payton is a tall order.
Payton (and quarterback Bo Nix) got the best season out of top wideout Courtland Sutton that we've seen in years, with a boot-heavy attack allowing the 2018 second-round pick to separate from defenders while running across the field as opposed to relying on what had been inconsistent physicality at the top of routes. Sutton topped 2.0 yards per route run and had only three drops all season, although one cost the Broncos a shot at three points in a two-point loss to the rival Chiefs.
I raved about Marvin Mims Jr. as the league's best gadget player last month, and though Troy Franklin never seemed to land on the same page with Nix, the rookie receiver was able to get open for potential big plays more often than his eventual numbers suggested (28 catches, two TDs). Summer addition J.K. Dobbins slowed down quickly after a hot start with the Chargers and has a significant injury history, but he offers the Broncos much-needed experience in the backfield as they work Harvey into the lineup. I would not be surprised to see Payton get the most out of this group given his acumen, but this wouldn't be an imposing unit in league-average hands.
22. Los Angeles Chargers
While the 2024 season was unquestionably a success for the Chargers, it's clear Jim Harbaugh & Co. agreed with that last-place ranking for playmakers. While slot receiver Ladd McConkey will return after a 1,149-yard regular season and a 197-yard performance in the playoff loss to the Texans, the Chargers are overhauling the rest of their lineup. Lead backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards were moved on, wideout Joshua Palmer left for the Bills and Quentin Johnston's role as a full-time starter isn't guaranteed after an inconsistent (if improved) Year 2.
In comes size across the board. There's a bruising one-two punch at running back in former Steelers starter Najee Harris (6-foot-1, 242 pounds) and rookie first-rounder Omarion Hampton (6-foot, 220 pounds), both of whom should offer the between-the-tackles oomph the Chargers lacked at times last season. (It's important to have oomph.) Harris hasn't been efficient as a pro, but he'll be playing behind a better offensive line and won't have to shoulder the same sort of workload. He could have a better season than what his history in Pittsburgh hints.
Is there a receiver who can win on the outside when teams double McConkey? Mike Williams is back after an ill-fated run with the Jets and a brief foray with the Steelers; I'm a little nervous that a torn ACL he suffered in 2023 might have sapped his ability to separate, with the 30-year-old ranking 155th out of 159 receivers in ESPN's open score a year ago. Rookie second-rounder Tre Harris has real potential and is already a smooth route-runner, but he's making a significant scheme adjustment in moving from the spread attack at Ole Miss to the run-intensive, heavy play-action approach Greg Roman uses in L.A. I wouldn't be surprised if it took him some time to get going as a rookie, even if he does emerge as a starter by the midway point of the season. Just hope McConkey stays healthy.
I would feel better if the Chargers had a tight end who they could rely upon as a pass catcher, especially given their style of offense. Incumbent Will Dissly isn't able to stretch the field and had a brutal pair of drops in the playoff loss to the Texans. The Jets and Chargers essentially swapped Stone Smartt for Tyler Conklin, who is an upgrade for L.A., but Conklin still only mustered 1.0 yards per route run for the Jets with Aaron Rodgers under center last season. There's an intriguing option down the lineup in fifth-round pick Oronde Gadsden II; could the 6-foot-5 former wideout be the field-stretcher the Chargers need from their tight end group?
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
Are the Steelers different? Yes. Are they better? Maybe a tiny bit. DK Metcalf is certainly a more reliable option than the now-departed George Pickens as the lead receiver, but after Metcalf's 1,303-yard season in 2020, he has averaged 1,030 yards per campaign and right above 2.0 yards per route run, producing at about the same rate as Michael Pittman Jr. and Amari Cooper. Those are good wideouts, but there's a perception that Metcalf's upside from 2020 looks more like a career outlier than a realistic expectation of what he's likely to do going forward.
Metcalf might get there on sheer target volume because many of Pittsburgh's wide receivers could struggle to stay active and produce. Roman Wilson was limited to five snaps as a rookie by ankle and hamstring injuries, critical concerns for a player who will need to rely on his quickness and route running to thrive in the slot. Robert Woods is still a sound blocker and veteran hand, but he fell all the way to 203 receiving yards last season in Houston. Woods and Ben Skowronek are better football players than they are playmakers with the ball in their hands, which might benefit the Steelers given their expected desire to lean into the run in Year 2 of Arthur Smith's scheme.
Smith went into his old bag of Falcons for Cordarrelle Patterson last year and added another to the mix this summer, with the Steelers trading for tight end Jonnu Smith, who actually averaged more yards per route run (2.1) than Metcalf (1.9) in 2024. It's tough to believe Smith's eight-touchdown total from 2025 will be repeated given that he topped three scores just once before -- and he won't get 111 targets again -- but he and Pat Freiermuth should be one of the league's most productive tight end duos, which helps give Pittsburgh a post-trade push in these rankings.
Removing Najee Harris could be addition by subtraction, with the Steelers likely to hand a larger share of the rushing workload to Jaylen Warren, the far more productive back in that rotation over the past three years. Rookie third-rounder Kaleb Johnson will take over the big-back role, but if he can be more efficient than Harris as the 1B as opposed to the 1A, Pittsburgh could finally have the consistent offensive attack it has sought since Ben Roethlisberger suffered an elbow injury in 2019.
20. Las Vegas Raiders
I wrote in this piece a year ago that even tight ends who eventually turn out to be great often struggle in their rookie seasons. Brock Bowers was not the usual rookie tight end. Playing with Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew, he pieced together what might have been the best rookie receiving season of any tight end in league history. He finished with 112 catches for 1,194 yards and averaged 2.2 yards per route run, tormenting defenses with his ability to run away from coverage and create after the catch. The only thing missing was red zone dominance, as he had only six catches and one score all year inside the 20. Bowers is a wildly exciting player who gives the Raiders an elite playmaker for new quarterback Geno Smith.
Vegas will hope to add a second game changer on a rookie deal this offseason with first-round pick Ashton Jeanty, who should step in as the lead back ahead of Raheem Mostert. Jeanty enters the league with filthy game tape on record from his time at Boise State, but Raiders fans who can remember Darren McFadden's time with the franchise might want to temper their expectations appropriately. Over the past 20 years, rookie backs taken in the top 10 have averaged 202 carries for 892 yards and seven rushing scores in their debut seasons. With a 17th game unavailable to many of those other backs, a 1,000-yard campaign should be considered a successful year for the 21-year-old Jeanty.
With these rankings leaning on wide receivers as their primary driver, though, the Raiders can't get very high. Jakobi Meyers continues to exceed expectations and should be considered one of the best slot receivers in football, but even while allowing for the possibility of Bowers lining up outside, the depth chart at wide receiver is paper thin. With low-impact deep threat Tre Tucker as the only other meaningful veteran holdover, the Raiders will rely on second-rounder Jack Bech and fourth-rounder Dont'e Thornton to step in as contributors. Third-year tight end Michael Mayer, taken with the 35th pick of the 2023 draft, has barely registered as a pro and might be a trade candidate given that the people who selected him have already been replaced twice.
19. Seattle Seahawks
A significant overhaul means the Seahawks drop in these rankings. Even while acknowledging DK Metcalf's 2020 season looks like an outlier and Tyler Lockett's decline has become apparent, Seattle might have downgraded at both spots (while getting cheaper) by replacing them with Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Like Metcalf, Kupp is several years removed from what looks like an outlier year-plus as an elite receiver. He was the league's best receiver when helping push the Rams to a Super Bowl in the 2021 season, and he stayed at that level during the first half of 2022. He hasn't been the same since suffering an ankle injury and missing the rest of 2022, however.
The emergence of Puka Nacua in Los Angeles might have taken targets away from the former Offensive Player of the Year, but Kupp has averaged 2.2 yards per route run without Nacua on the field and 2.0 YPRR in total over the past two seasons. Those are solid numbers, but they're a ways away from the 2.9 yards per route run he averaged in 2021-22. Factoring in Kupp's age (32) and the reality that he has missed eight games over the past two seasons with injuries, he projects more like a solid No. 2 receiver than one with elite upside.
Valdes-Scantling was good in a small sample for the Saints last season, but the 30-year-old was cut by the Bills and joined New Orleans for free. The passing game should run through Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose 2024 breakout helped keep the Seahawks from falling further. He averaged nearly 83 receiving yards per game from Week 9 onward, a 1,402-yard pace over a full season.
We're still waiting for the breakout from other Seahawks. Noah Fant continues to be a high-floor, low-ceiling tight end, combining catch rates north of 74% with a lack of consistent big-play ability or any sort of threat in the red zone. He has one score over the past two seasons. Kenneth Walker III has the fourth-worst success rate (37%) and is tied for third-last in first downs over expectation among running backs with at least 500 carries in the past three seasons. It's one thing to combine that profile with spectacular big plays, as Walker did in 2022, but after breaking off three 60-plus yard runs as a rookie, he hasn't posted one since.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars
If you didn't watch many Jaguars games last season, about the only thing you missed out on was the breakout from first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. Despite inconsistent quarterback play and an offense that never seemed to get right around him, he immediately stood out as a problem for opposing defenses. Few receivers of any vintage make things look as easy as he did, as he effortlessly glided away from defenders and snatched wayward passes out of the air. He's already a legitimate No. 1 wideout.
Could Thomas and Travis Hunter become the league's best one-two punch of rookie-contract receivers? It's impossible to say how the Jaguars will actually deploy Hunter, who won the Heisman Trophy while playing wide receiver and cornerback last season. I'd argue that the two-way star might have gotten at least a little boost from his story -- he ranked seventh in the Big 12 in yards per route run -- but it should go without saying that the No. 2 pick is an otherworldly athlete. If the Jags rest Hunter on defense more often than Colorado did a year ago, he might also simply have more in the tank on offense. Few top-five receiver picks come into the NFL with a wider range of potential outcomes in Year 1, but the upside of having two potential superstar receivers on rookie deals is clear for new coach Liam Coen.
Adam Schefter breaks down how the Jaguars plan to use Travis Hunter during his rookie season.
After those two? Let's hope Coen can do as much with the ancillary players in Jacksonville as he did in Tampa Bay. Receiver Dyami Brown was an afterthought for four years in Washington before a hot postseason run. Tight end Brenton Strange inherits the starting role from Evan Engram after averaging a respectable 1.6 yards per route run a year ago.
Coen was able to land on the right runner (Bucky Irving) in a three-headed backfield for the Bucs last season, and he'll need to do the same thing in Jacksonville, where 2021 first-rounder Travis Etienne Jr. hasn't lived up to expectations and Tank Bigsby hasn't been able to hold onto the football, with six fumbles on 226 touches. Could Coen get the most out of Bhayshul Tuten, another rookie fourth-rounder?
17. Green Bay Packers
With so many promising young receivers, it seemed inevitable that at least one of Green Bay's primary pass catchers would take a step forward in 2024. Somehow, they went 0-for-5.
Jayden Reed was wildly inconsistent, in part because of the Packers' reluctance to use him out of the slot. (He averaged 1.3 YPRR split out wide and 2.7 everywhere else.) Romeo Doubs was suspended by the team for a game and missed 2½ more games with injuries. Christian Watson caught just 29 passes, albeit for 620 yards, before tearing an ACL in the playoffs. Dontayvion Wicks tied Quentin Johnston for last in the league in ESPN's catch score, which is not a comparison a player wants to draw. Luke Musgrave missed most of the season with an ankle issue, but even before the injury, fellow second-year tight end Tucker Kraft had taken over the starting role, delivering the lone impressive campaign from the young guns (50 catches, seven TDs).
The Packers apparently agreed with the disappointment, as they used first-round (Matthew Golden) and third-round (Savion Williams) picks on new wide receivers, hinting at futures elsewhere for Doubs and Watson after their contract years in 2025. I'm still reasonably optimistic about all of these guys -- and Golden should give Green Bay a much-needed burst of downfield speed while Watson is unavailable -- but last season was a reminder of how tough it is to project steps forward for even promising young receivers in a healthy offense.
Then there's Josh Jacobs, who racked up 1,329 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in a Pro Bowl season. Yards per carry (4.6) and RYOE (217) loved what he did last season. Other metrics? Not as much. He ranked 15th out of 23 backs in success rate (39.9%) and 19th in EPA (minus-0.12), owing in part to his four fumbles. As a back with a below-average EPA per carry and tons of attempts, Jacobs ranked 135th in cumulative rushing EPA.
Was Jacobs really the league's 135th-best back? Of course not. The concerns about fumbles and inefficiency are meaningful, though. His strength (breaking tackles to extend plays, especially at the second and third levels) is far more conspicuous on highlight-reel runs than his weakness (indecisiveness when hitting the hole and trying to avoid runs for no gain/losses), which tends to add up as the game goes along. The Packers were better when he was off the field than when he was on it, something that wasn't true for Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, other NFL free agent additions.
The playoff loss to the Eagles was a good example of Jacobs' season. He had a spectacular 31-yard run that set up a 1-yard touchdown plunge on what ended up being his final two carries of the season, but he failed to pick up a first down on any of his prior 16 carries. He also fumbled inside the Eagles' 10-yard line, although the Packers were able to fall on the loose ball. Leaving salary aside, he is a useful player, but comparisons to Barkley and Henry in terms of 2024 impact are superficial.
16. Indianapolis Colts
How much of Indianapolis' limited offensive firepower are you willing to pin on the scattershot arm of Anthony Richardson? The Colts had three receivers top 800 yards a year ago, and while Josh Downs was a much better player with Joe Flacco on the field, Michael Pittman Jr. and deep threat Alec Pierce were both more efficient with the inconsistent, explosive Richardson at the helm.
receiver score is useful here, since it attempts to measure what receivers do on a route-by-route basis, even when they're not thrown the ball. It liked what it saw from Indy's receivers, with Downs finishing 15th in receiver score (and tied for fourth in open score), while Pierce came in at 37th and Pittman at 70th. There's an underrated trio here, and they get a fourth prominent player added to the mix in first-round pick Tyler Warren, who should be a major upgrade on a group of tight ends that combined to rank last in receptions and 31st in receiving yards at the position a year ago.
No other group of receivers suffers more because of its situation. The Colts dropped back for just 567 passes last season, the fourth-lowest total of any team. Nearly 21% of those passes were off target, the second-highest rate in the league. The only teams whose receivers were afforded fewer on-target pass attempts were the Ravens and Eagles, who had more concentrated passing attacks. And even when throws were "on target," the average quarterback group turned those throws into precise targets (hitting the receiver in stride in the torso area) just under 70% of the time. Flacco and Richardson did that 59.9% of the time, the worst rate by more than four percentage points and the worst mark by any team since the 2018 Bills (Josh Allen's rookie season). This would be a much more celebrated group of wideouts with competent quarterback play.
Jonathan Taylor's talent is more difficult to dispute, but after failing to reach the heights of his 2021 campaign over the subsequent two seasons, he seemed to be on the same track in 2024, owing to a midseason high ankle sprain. After recovering from the injury, though, he was devastating over the final month of the season. In Indy's last four games, he racked up 117 carries for 627 yards and six scores. Injuries continue to be a concern for Taylor, who hasn't completed a full season outside of that 2021 campaign, but he remains one of the NFL's best backs when healthy.
15. Arizona Cardinals
Each year, it's tempting to treat players regarded as elite prospects as something special and beyond compare to other rookies from the past. Sometimes, those guys become Brock Bowers. Other times, they have rookie years like that of Marvin Harrison Jr., who was supposed to be the clear top wideout in a fantastic class before finishing fifth in receiving yards among his own draftees. I'm willing to recognize some concerns that he wasn't put in advantageous situations, but the book on him was that he was supposed to be someone entirely capable of lining up as a true "X" receiver and dominating from the outside. Cardinals fans will remember what Larry Fitzgerald did in Year 2 after a 780-yard rookie campaign -- 103 catches, 1,409 yards and 10 TDs -- and that's certainly in Harrison's range of outcomes, but even the best prospects don't always translate into immediate superstars.
If Harrison does get going, the Cardinals should have a nice big three. Trey McBride does everything you'd want a tight end to do beyond catch touchdowns, a trick that should turn around sooner rather than later. Remember that Tony Gonzalez had two touchdowns in each of his first two seasons before putting up 11 in Year 3 and averaging seven per season over the rest of his career. Running back James Conner was both healthy and productive last season, topping 1,500 yards from scrimmage for the first time as a pro. His four fumbles were his only issue.
There's a massive drop-off to the rest of the team. Michael Wilson runs a ton of routes, which undercuts his 548 receiving yards; his 1.2 yards per route run ranked 72nd out of 91 qualifying wideouts last season. Greg Dortch was in 68th place. And Trey Benson, who seemed like he might turn into Conner's long-term replacement, had just 291 rushing yards in a limited role as a rookie. There's growth potential for a young group of playmakers here.
14. Houston Texans
After almost going from worst to first in one year, the Texans have fallen back toward the pack after a disappointing campaign. Both Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs were sidelined by season-ending injuries, and while Diggs left in free agency, Dell isn't expected to return from his multiligament knee tear this season. Down the lineup, former second-round pick John Metchie finally got a chance to play regularly and struggled, averaging 28 receiving yards per game while playing two-thirds of the offensive snaps in the second half and postseason.
Enter a bevy of new wideouts around superstar Nico Collins, who was every bit as good in 2024 as he was in 2023 when healthy enough to play. Trade acquisition Christian Kirk averaged 2.0 yards per route run as a big-money free agent in Jacksonville, but he missed 14 games over the past two seasons with injuries. Second-round pick Jayden Higgins had a promising 2024 season at Iowa State, but he is seen as more of a project than a wideout expected to make an immediate impact. And third-rounder Jaylin Noel, Higgins' college teammate, will likely compete with Kirk in the slot for snaps. I would expect the Texans to find some starting-caliber snaps across from Collins within this trio, but it's also only realistic to say the vision of three elite wideouts they had this time last year isn't in the cards with this new bunch.
Running back Joe Mixon's numbers weren't great last season, but the running game the Texans fielded early in the year while he was hurt made him look like Saquon Barkley. Mixon suffered behind the dismal offensive line play in Houston; I'm not sure I've ever seen a back pull a rabbit out of his hat more often in beating unblocked or marginally blocked rushers in the backfield on third-and-short before picking up first downs. He should benefit from a better offensive scheme, and it's tough to imagine the line play being worse.
13. Washington Commanders
The arrival of quarterback Jayden Daniels and coordinator Kliff Kingsbury leveled everyone up in Washington. Terry McLaurin, finally given a quarterback worthy of his talents, soared on a per-route basis; he finished 16th in yards per route run and nearly doubled his prior career high in touchdowns, racking up 13 before adding three more during the postseason. He didn't set a career high in receiving yards by virtue of not getting the same target totals he saw at times in previous seasons, but he was at his efficient best with improved quarterback play.
Wideouts Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown exceeded expectations before leaving this offseason, while Noah Brown should return in a lesser role. The big addition at receiver is Deebo Samuel who averaged 110 scrimmage yards per game during his All-Pro season in 2021 and 64 scrimmage yards per contest across his five other seasons. He's a true outlier in terms of generating yards after catch year after year, and he should fit well as part of all the screens the Commanders run, but he has also had consistent issues with fumbles, drops and injuries. Projecting a Samuel turnaround like the ones we saw for reclamation projects such as Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler last season is more difficult considering he's leaving an offense built by Kyle Shanahan.
Ertz and Ekeler are back, and Brian Robinson Jr. has developed into a reasonable between-the-tackles runner, but I want to see whether this team's high 2024 draft picks develop. Second-round tight end Ben Sinnott and third-round wide receiver Luke McCaffrey were along for the ride as rookies, combining for 194 receiving yards during the regular season. The Commanders didn't need to integrate them into the lineup when things were working, but it isn't as if they were facing historically stiff competition beyond McLaurin, either. One (or preferably both) of the young guys breaking out would be a big help for Washington, with regards to both its roster construction and standing in these rankings.
12. Kansas City Chiefs
While there were occasional glimmers of the old Travis Kelce, it's fair to say Father Time might have finally gotten to the best tight end in NFL history. Outside of his one-game debut season in 2013, he set career lows in receiving yards (823), touchdowns (three), yards per reception (8.5, never previously below 10), yards per target (6.1, never once before below 8.0), yards per route run (1.6) and average yards after catch (3.5). He finished last in ESPN's receiver score among all NFL players, although that owes in part to a Catch Score (zero) that's way out of line with his historical rates. I'd argue that Kelce is still an above-average tight end with this skill set given how difficult it is to find real upside at the position, but I'm expecting something a lot closer to the 2024 version than the dominant 2022 edition.
The running back situation is also muddled after Isiah Pacheco's frustrating season, owing to a fractured fibula. It's a little easier to project a 26-year-old runner to bounce back to form than a 35-year-old tight end, but then again, Kelce's baseline was a lot more spectacular than Pacheco's. Kareem Hunt was excellent in short-yardage and underwhelming at just about everything else when forced into the lead role as Pacheco's replacement.
Instead, I'm cautiously optimistic about the Chiefs' wide receivers, who have been disappointing for years. Rashee Rice was excellent down the stretch in 2023 and early in 2024 before tearing his ACL in Week 4, and with the injury occurring so early in the season, he should be closer to full health. And while it took Xavier Worthy time to rack up numbers, it wasn't because he couldn't get open. He averaged 2.0 yards per route run between Week 10 and Super Bowl LIX, where he finished the season with eight catches for 157 yards and two scores. If the Chiefs can somehow get full seasons out of Rice, Worthy and oft-injured third wideout Hollywood Brown, we could see something more like the younger, more explosive version of Patrick Mahomes. Of course, counting on getting 51 games out of those three players seems extremely optimistic, which is why Kansas City isn't ranked higher.
Kimberley A. Martin and Field Yates discuss their outlook for the Lions this season with a new offensive and defensive coordinator.
11. Dallas Cowboys
Last season was a step backward for CeeDee Lamb, but it seems reasonable to chalk up some of his decline to Dak Prescott's injuries. Even in what felt like a down year before a shoulder injury led the Cowboys to wave the white flag, he ranked 17th among wide receivers in yards per route run. Working so often out of the slot, he benefits from having a quarterback with elite accuracy and a willingness to put the ball into tight spaces like Prescott; he might be a little more susceptible to a change under center than Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase would, which represents a very tiny tier gap at the top of the wide receiver food chain.
Lamb will finally get some help on the outside, where George Pickens should -- on what can only be described as the most paper-ish substance imaginable -- be an upgrade on the likes of Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks. Thrown a steady stream of back-shoulders and 50/50 balls in Pittsburgh, Pickens had the second-lowest expected catch rate (53.3%) and the sixth-highest catch rate over expectation (plus-6.1%) among wideouts with at least 200 targets over the past three seasons. Moving from Pittsburgh to Dallas should boost Pickens' efficiency, but he won't have a clear path to as massive of a target share. Given what has happened to many Steelers receivers when they've left the protection of the Mike Tomlin behavioral cocoon, it's only realistic to wonder whether he will melt down in spectacular fashion. There's also Pro Bowl-caliber upside here, however.
Tight end Jake Ferguson didn't build on his Pro Bowl campaign in Year 3, failing to score a touchdown in 14 games. He should see the end zone more often in 2025. I'm still not entirely sure why Dallas downgraded from Rico Dowdle to Javonte Williams by choice, but this is arguably the league's worst backfield on paper. While these rankings index more heavily on wide receiver, the Cowboys seem entirely disinterested in even taking fun fliers at running back.
10. Miami Dolphins
It shouldn't be a surprise to see the Dolphins fall down these rankings, as just about everybody who stood out for them in 2023 disappointed last season. Tyreek Hill, coming off one of the best wide receiver seasons ever, saw his cumulative receiving yardage total fall from 1,799 to 959. While he was bothered by a wrist injury, the devastatingly explosive wideout didn't have a single reception of more than 30 yards after a touchdown in the opening-week win over the Jags. It seems foolish to write him off after so many years with significant production, but perhaps the 31-year-old is finally slowing down.
The big plays were also missing from the running game, where De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert went from seven runs of more than 30 yards to just three, all of which came from Achane. Miami's backs went from ranking first in rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) in 2023 to 32nd, reversing the climb they accomplished between 2022 and 2023. Mostert is gone now, and while Achane was a far more productive back with Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup, these are supposed to be quarterback-independent rankings.
Wideout Jaylen Waddle's numbers fell off by more than 250 receiving yards for the second consecutive campaign, and after averaging a league-high 18.1 yards per catch in 2022, he was down to 12.8 YPC a year ago. Miami's lone season to exceed expectations came from tight end Jonnu Smith, but the Dolphins traded Smith to the Steelers (after a contract dispute) and replaced him with the unretired Darren Waller, whose last healthy, significant season came in 2020. This is a wildly exciting group of playmakers when Tagovailoa is healthy and coach Mike McDaniel is in his bag, but last season showed how underwhelming these players can be when the conditions aren't right.
9. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are batting 1.5 out of 3 on their top-10 picks at the skill positions. Finally freed of coach Arthur Smith, 2022 No. 8 pick Drake London was installed as the primary receiver in a pass-friendly offense and lived up to expectations; his 2.4 yards per route run ranked 11th in the league among qualifying receivers. Darnell Mooney, also shifting from a dismal passing attack to what was a competent one for most of the season, ranked 29th by the same metric, settling in as a high-end second wideout.
Bijan Robinson, the No. 8 pick in 2023, has been very good, but the idea that he was going to be a position-transcendent playmaker turned out to be draft hype. I'm not evaluating players versus their draft pedigree or the opportunity cost of taking a running back for these rankings, but strictly evaluated versus other backs, Robinson has been stellar, ranking seventh in RYOE among backs over the past two seasons. After fumbling four times as a rookie, he fumbled just once on 365 touches last season, another positive step. The one thing that's missing is big plays: Robinson didn't have a single gain of more than 40 yards last season, which seems impossible for a player who had five of those in his final college season. We should see more of them in 2025.
As for the third member of that top-10 class ... he had more receiving touchdowns than Trey McBride! Kyle Pitts, the No. 4 pick in 2021, has fallen out of favor in Atlanta, owing both to concerns about his work as a blocker and his lack of impact as a receiver. It's fine to be a mediocre blocker if a player is racking up 1,000-yard receiving campaigns, as Pitts did during his fine rookie season in 2021. When he's topping out around 600 receiving yards a year and ranks 22nd in yards per route run among qualifying tight ends, the organization isn't going to be desperate to find him playing time. Pitts is still only 24 -- and young tight ends sometimes take years to develop before figuring things out elsewhere (Greg Olsen is an example) -- but it would be a surprise if he's part of this Falcons discussion in 2026.
8. Baltimore Ravens
Though I was optimistic this time last year about the move to Baltimore revitalizing Derrick Henry's career, I didn't see a 1,921-yard season on the horizon. Henry was a superstar, posting the same big plays that made him a threat during his peak. After racking up eight runs of 30 yards or more in 2020, Henry had eight more combined from 2021 through 2023. He pulled that feat off nine times in 2024. It's tough to count on Henry producing so many big plays again at his size, but the soon-to-be 32-year-old could slip a bit and still be one of the best backs in football.
Though they're different sorts of players, Zay Flowers has inherited the Hollywood Brown role of being hyper-efficient in an offense that doesn't throw very often. Flowers' 2.5 yards per route run ranked just behind Ja'Marr Chase, but while Chase averaged 40 routes per game, Flowers had six drops and just one catch on a throw traveling more than 30 yards in the air last season, so there's still plenty of room for him to grow.
The Ravens come up just short of a big three. Mark Andrews was anonymous for five weeks before scoring 11 touchdowns in his final 12 regular-season games, but there hasn't been any hint of his 2021 volume returning. He did lead all tight ends in ESPN's open score (83), so there should be opportunities there if Lamar Jackson looks his way more often. Isaiah Likely had a handful of big games, including his 111-yard performance in the opening week loss to the Chiefs, but the presence of Andrews limits his access to the football. DeAndre Hopkins, signed to a one-year deal this offseason, is strictly a situational wideout at this point of his career.
The likelier candidate to make the Ravens a big three could be Rashod Bateman, who finally had the sort of season he has hinted at since being drafted in the first round four years ago. Healthy for the entire season, he racked up 756 receiving yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 1.9 yards per route run and finishing 18th in receiver score. The sheer lack of targets to go around in Baltimore's passing game limits Bateman's ability to get his numbers much higher, but if he can maintain this level of efficiency, it will be a boon to an already-explosive Ravens offense.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Injuries can often be a setback for an offense. For the Bucs, it might have strangely helped their standing in these rankings. Just about every starting playmaker for the Buccaneers missed time at one point or another during the 2024 season, opening up opportunities for players below them on the depth chart. In the vast majority of cases, those replacements either held up their end of the bargain or actually exceeded expectations.
We ended up with games in which tight end Cade Otton became the Bucs' leading receiver as a "power slot" option after Chris Godwin and Mike Evans got hurt. Jalen McMillan had 316 receiving yards and seven touchdowns over the final five games of the regular season. Bucky Irving carved out a meaningful role early in the season, and he took over as the team's starting running back after Rachaad White missed time in midseason. Sean Tucker, filling in for the injured White, showed he could be a valuable part of the running back rotation going forward.
Everybody on offense who caught a pass or took a handoff from the 2024 Buccaneers is back, and they're joined by first-round pick Emeka Egbuka. Irving was a superstar as the primary back in the second half of his rookie season. Godwin was off to a white-hot start before suffering a dislocated ankle. And while his cumulative totals were depressed by missing the better part of four games because of a hamstring issue, Evans averaged a career-high 2.6 yards per route run while adding an 11th straight 1,000-yard campaign to his Hall of Fame résumé.
Are there concerns that the offense won't look as good without coordinator Liam Coen? Maybe. Irving has also been an elite back for only a half-season. Godwin is recovering from a serious injury. Evans turns 32 next month and has missed time in three of the past four seasons. You can poke just enough holes around Tampa's key contributors to keep them from getting any higher. But what a fun group of players to watch.
6. Minnesota Vikings
A true superstar receiver goes a long way, as Justin Jefferson is one of the two best wideouts in the game alongside Ja'Marr Chase. The Vikings star combines elite volume with efficiency (2.6 yards per route run), and while he benefits from a coach in Kevin O'Connell who does a great job of creating opportunities and space, Jefferson hasn't exactly had Joe Burrow at quarterback in Minnesota. Jefferson is a Hall of Fame-caliber talent and 26 years old. You shouldn't need me to tell you he is good.
The players around him might not be as sturdy as they seemed a year ago. Jordan Addison averaged 1.8 yards per route run in his second season, but there's a distinct possibility the 23-year-old will be suspended for part of the 2025 season after he's tried on DUI charges this month. T.J. Hockenson is healthy after missing part of the 2024 season while recovering from a torn ACL, but the former Lions first-rounder didn't score a touchdown and saw his efficiency retreat to where it had been with Detroit (1.7 YPRR) versus where it stood in Minnesota before the injury in 2023 (2.0). That's the difference between a good tight end and a Pro Bowler, and although that could be variance, I'd like to see that 2023 version of Hockenson again.
Aaron Jones Sr. racked up 1,546 yards from scrimmage in his debut season with the Vikings, but he wasn't great near the goal line and fumbled five times, including a midseason stretch with four fumbles across seven quarters. The Vikings have suggested they want to ease the burden on Jones by giving meaningful work to Jordan Mason, who was acquired from the 49ers this offseason. Mason was wildly efficient in San Francisco, but that team is running back heaven, and he also fumbled three times on 164 touches in 2024. I'd expect this offense to keep humming, but a lot of the players around Jefferson have something to prove.
5. Los Angeles Rams
If you could guarantee 17 games from the Rams' big three at their 2024 levels of play, they might challenge to rank No. 1 here. Puka Nacua missed six games and still came within a screen of making it to 1,000 yards, as his 3.7 yards per route run comfortably led the NFL. Kyren Williams ranked sixth in rushing yards per game despite not having a single run top 30 yards, something that won't happen again in 2025. And after a difficult first three months of the year, Davante Adams -- who was added by L.A. in free agency -- brought in 576 receiving yards and six scores from December 1 onward, ranking among the league leaders in both categories.
Can the Rams expect all three of those guys to live up to those expectations? Nacua is a superstar, but the only starting wideouts to average more yards per route run in a season since 2007 are Tyreek Hill in 2023 and Steve Smith in 2008. Williams is a great gap-scheme back, but he has also fumbled eight times over the past two seasons, including five in 2024. And Adams had been declining since the start of 2023 before a late-season surge with longtime friend Aaron Rodgers at quarterback against the Jaguars, who might have been listening to podcasts in the middle of plays.
These guys are all great players, so while I have my reservations about the Rams getting the most out of Adams, it would hardly be a surprise if they all garnered Pro Bowl consideration. As with other teams, it would be wonderful for the Rams if another young player broke through. Tutu Atwell is being paid $10 million to help clear out space underneath for other wideouts, but Jordan Whittington, a sixth-round pick last year, might be the more impactful receiver if he gets the opportunity to play. Tight end Tyler Higbee is 32 and didn't play much last season after a torn ACL in January 2024, so while second-round pick Terrance Ferguson is clearly Sean McVay's tight end of the future, it would be helpful if that future came sooner rather than later.
4. San Francisco 49ers
The back-to-back playmaker champs have fallen off their pedestal, with injuries as the primary cause. Brandon Aiyuk will be returning from a torn ACL. Christian McCaffrey was limited last season to four games by Achilles and knee injuries. McCaffrey had been brilliant and healthy for his prior year-plus with the 49ers, but he has now missed significant time in three of his seven seasons as a starting NFL running back. It's impossible to project injuries, but it's unrealistic to treat McCaffrey as a 17-game starter for the purpose of these rankings. The Niners also soured on Deebo Samuel Sr. and traded him to the Commanders to help ease their cap burden, nominally replacing him with journeyman Demarcus Robinson.
There's less to go around here, but the 49ers had the league's most stacked set of playmakers heading into 2024, and that was before Jauan Jennings broke out in a larger role. San Francisco's third-down weapon was a real thing, as Jennings ranked 37th in catches on first and second down, but fifth on third down. He's not Samuel in terms of working after the catch, but Jennings was tough to bring down and willing to make catches in tight quarters, which led to him finishing 12th in ESPN's receiver score this past season. Tight end George Kittle was above Jennings in receiver score, second only to A.J. Brown in the league.
Outside of their standouts staying healthy, the player who might determine where the 49ers land in 2025 is second-year wideout Ricky Pearsall, who was 25th in receiver score while only averaging 1.5 yards per route run. Though he was seemingly able to get open, those opportunities didn't yield targets very often. It's always going to be tough to attract a lofty target share with so many mouths to feed, but if Pearsall can emerge as a legitimate starting wideout, the 49ers will have a strong case to head back up to the top of these rankings in 2026.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
Welcome back, Ja'Marr Chase. After an injury-impacted 2022 season and a merely very good 2023 campaign, he won the receiving triple crown in 2024. Chase led the league in routes, which helped boost those counting stats, but he averaged a robust 2.5 yards per route run and was a big-play factory. He had seven receiving touchdowns of 40 yards, three more than any other player and the most since Jordy Nelson had seven in 2014. Asking Chase to do that every year is a lot, but the 25-year-old did have six of them as a rookie, so if anyone can do it, it's him.
Another Chase also emerged, as after a quiet rookie season, running back Chase Brown took over for departed Joe Mixon and quickly added a more well-rounded and explosive element to the Cincinnati backfield. The Bengals flirted with Zack Moss as their lead back early in the season, but after he went down with a neck injury, Brown took over as a three-down playmaker. Over his eight-game stretch as the primary back, his numbers prorate over a full season to 321 carries, 81 receptions, 1,976 yards from scrimmage and 12 scores. That's not far from Bijan Robinson's 2024.
The only things holding the Bengals back are the hamstrings of Tee Higgins. A healthy Higgins might be the best second wideout in football, but he has missed 10 games over the past two seasons, primarily because of hamstring and quad issues. He still managed 911 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns last season -- a reminder of how he can make an impact even with Chase on the field -- but it's disheartening to see such a talented player battle repeated hamstring injuries.
There's a big drop-off to the rest of the roster, unsurprisingly. Mike Gesicki had a bounce-back season and averaged 1.7 yards per route run as a "tight end," but he scored only twice and hasn't been able to turn his 6-foot-6 frame into any sort of red zone production. Andrei Iosivas racked up 479 yards and six scores, but that's a product of running 34 routes per game in an explosive offense. He ranked 91st out of 95 qualifying wideouts in yards per route run and finished 151st in receiver score.
2. Detroit Lions
For a player who was originally a fourth-round pick and then written off as strictly a slot receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to exceed expectations. He had an 81.6% catch rate last season, the second-best rate for a wideout with 100 targets or more since 1992. His 70.2% success rate on those targets, per Pro Football Reference, was the fifth-best mark for any wideout with those same constraints. Three of the other top four years are from seasons with Drew Brees at quarterback. No disrespect to Jared Goff, but St. Brown continues to do special things in his office over the middle of the field.
He finally got some consistent help on the outside from Jameson Williams, who had a long-awaited breakout season. Stretching defenses over the top with vertical routes and running away from defenders on crossers and digs, he averaged 2.2 yards per route run and 11 yards per target, with the latter figure ranking just behind A.J. Brown for the league's best mark. If he's this guy moving forward, the Lions are going to be virtually uncoverable when they have their standouts on the field.
We haven't even gotten to running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who followed up an excellent rookie season by racking up 1,929 yards from scrimmage and a league-high 20 touchdowns. With David Montgomery sidelined for most of the final four regular-season games, Gibbs showed what he could do if the Lions ever need to make him their every-down back, managing 601 yards from scrimmage and eight scores. He added 175 yards and two more touchdowns in the divisional-round loss to the Commanders.
Then there's Sam LaPorta, whose "disappointing" season (726 yards, seven touchdowns) was still good enough to finish as the sixth-best tight end in fantasy football. His target volume suffered from the ascension of Williams, as he mustered only about 16% of Detroit's targets in the passing game, which is just below what Pat Freiermuth had in Pittsburgh. I'm putting that more on the standouts around LaPorta than an inability to get open, as the 24-year-old finished 28th in receiver score.
The only knock I can place on the Lions' playmaker spots is the departure of one of the league's schematic masterminds. Ben Johnson was undoubtedly a huge help to the offense and getting the most out of this talent, but with the former Detroit coordinator now off to the Bears, there probably won't be the same endless array of trick plays and brilliant adjustments that we saw in years past. If the Lions can keep this up with John Morton calling plays, they'll be the clear No. 1 in 2026. As it stands, by the tiniest of margins, the adjustment I'm making for having Johnson over the past few years leaves the Detroit behind our new playmaker champs.
1. Philadelphia Eagles
After years of top-10 finishes, the Eagles did just enough to earn the top spot. Their big addition last offseason was a key difference-maker. Saquon Barkley stayed healthy, and while he certainly benefited from playing next to Jalen Hurts and behind a great offensive line, he produced one of the greatest seasons by any back in NFL history. He topped 2,000 rushing yards, led the league in just about every advanced metric for a running back and added 278 receiving yards and two scores. The Tush Push cost Barkley a shot at another handful of short-yardage rushing touchdowns, but he had a truly special campaign. There just aren't many other backs in the league, with Christian McCaffrey and perhaps Derrick Henry aside, who have a path to that sort of upside.
And while the Eagles throw the ball less often than just about any other team, their receivers are spectacularly efficient. A.J. Brown's 3.3 yards per route run ranked second best in the league, with the 28-year-old leading all players in receiver score. He missed three games because of injury, sat out a meaningless Week 18 game and played on a team that leaned heavily (and successfully) into the run, so he ran only 323 routes, less than half of Ja'Marr Chase's total (680) in Cincinnati.
DeVonta Smith wasn't far behind, as he ranked 14th in yards per route run and eighth in receiver score. Like Brown, Smith was limited to 13 games and 350 routes, but he still averaged more yards per route than CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers. It's not as simple as saying the Eagles' star wideouts would turn more routes into more receiving yards at the same level of efficiency, but Brown and Smith have both been superstars with larger target totals in previous seasons. All three of Philadelphia's stars are in the prime of their respective careers, making it easier to project that they'll stay at this level in 2025.
While Dallas Goedert's receiving yardage total dropped for the third consecutive season, that's more a product of injuries and the team's passing volume than his effectiveness. He commanded about the same target share (25.7%) per route as Jonnu Smith, and Goedert's 2.5 yards per route run was the second-best mark among tight ends who ran 200 routes or more. That figure was warped a bit by the 61-yard catch-and-run he had to set up the winning score against the Saints in Week 3, but having a tight end who can run 61 yards and pick up a critical first down is valuable! Goedert looks better under the hood than perception suggests.
There are injury concerns for each of these players, although Brown and Smith have typically been healthier than they were last season. Barkley has missed significant time because of ankle and knee issues in the past. Goedert hasn't played a full season since his rookie season in 2018. And after those four players, the Eagles are looking at replacement-level playmakers. Jahan Dotson was proof that it's not easy to just rack up yards per route run in this offense, as the preseason addition ranked 110th among wideouts by that metric. Running back Will Shipley and wideout Johnny Wilson are unproven, and tight end Grant Calcaterra was far less efficient than Goedert across 256 routes.
If you prefer the Lions or Bengals to what the Eagles can offer, I wouldn't take much issue. This is a narrow race at the top. When a team can field a top-five wideout, another top-15 wideout and a guy coming off one of the best running back seasons in NFL history on any given snap, though, I don't think anyone can take much issue with Philadelphia having the best group of playmakers in football.