The NFL projects that its kickoff return rate will rise to between 60% and 70% if owners approve a rule change that places touchbacks at the 35-yard line, competition committee chairman Rich McKay said Wednesday.
The proposal is among several rule and bylaw proposals owners will consider at their annual meeting next week in Palm Beach, Florida. At least 24 votes from owners are needed for approval.
The rate moved from 21.8% in 2023 to 32.8% last season, the league's first look at the revamped kickoff structure designed by special teams coaches and the NFL office. Touchbacks were spotted at the 30-yard line last year, and the average return was 27.6 yards.
Having a bigger difference between the touchback spot and the average return should prompt more coaches to emphasize short kickoffs that must be returned rather than conceding a touchback, McKay said.
"I think they are going up substantially because of that yardage difference," McKay said.
Owners approved the dynamic kickoff rule last year for one season only. The competition committee has proposed to make the change permanent, with several changes. In addition to the touchback spot, the committee proposed some mild alignment tweaks and also suggested eliminating the requirement that onside kicks can occur only in the fourth quarter.
Last season's structure reduced the concussion rate on kickoffs by 43%, but the total number of concussions stayed constant given the rise in return rate.
That means concussions on kickoffs could rise in 2025 if the return rate rises as expected. Jeff Miller, the NFL's executive vice president of communications, public affairs and policy, emphasized that the concussion rate is expected to remain the same. And if increased returns lead to better field position and more scoring, punts -- the NFL play with the highest concussion rate -- could decrease.
"So, as we add plays on the kickoff, we may end up with ... a decrease in some number of injuries because of the fewer punts," Miller said. "So, we put all that into the mix when we take a look at changing the kickoff play."
Meanwhile, the committee has proposed to continue adding responsibilities to its replay assist program. If approved, the on-site replay official will be permitted to reverse flags that are thrown for hits to defenseless players, along with fouls for facemask, horse collar, tripping and running into/roughing the kicker.
Those replay officials, however, would not be allowed to add a flag when an obvious foul has gone uncalled. McKay said there was no support for authorizing that step despite a series of high-profile misses in those situations last season.
"The idea was that the game being officiated from [the replay booth] changes pretty much everything and takes away the judgment that we give to officials on the field and would require substantial rework of the rules," McKay said. "So, I think everybody is kind of universal in saying we want the game officiated on the field, but we want replay assist to be able to step in when there is a clear miss of an objective element of a foul and fix it."
Troy Vincent, the NFL's executive vice president of football operations, said allowing flags to come from anyone other than on-field officials would be problematic amid the surge of legalized sports gambling.
"We talk about allowing the game to be played on the field and a phantom foul, a flag, is thrown," Vincent said. "Just imagine you yourself just thinking about, 'Where did that come from?' It just creates all kinds of speculation. ... We know there's going to be mistakes. There're going to be human errors. Let's try to fix some of those things that we can fix. But to put a flag on the field was a non-starter."
The committee also proposed allowing two players to be designated to return from injured reserve if they are placed on IR when rosters are reduced to 53, granting playoff teams two more returns from IR spots in the postseason, and using point differential as the third tiebreaker on waiver claims.
Owners will also consider a series of rule proposals from teams, which the NFL released to the public last week. They include a proposal from the Green Bay Packers to essentially ban the tush push short-yardage play that the Philadelphia Eagles have used to great success in recent years. The Eagles have proposed adding five minutes to regular-season overtime, and requiring that each team get a possession, while the Detroit Lions proposed a new playoff seeding system that emphasizes team records rather than division champions.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.