2025 NFL free agency: Projecting offers, deals on six stars

Top NFL free agents will begin to agree to new deals in less than a week, when the legal negotiating window kicks off Tuesday (though 2025 free agency officially opens two days later). To get a sense of how all the action will play out, we simulated the market on six key players -- four on defense, including two Eagles -- who could be available.

How? We asked our NFL Nation reporters to serve as the GM for the team they cover and make contract offers for key free agents while trying to stay within that team's salary cap restraints and realm of realistic outcomes. The object wasn't to "win" but rather to accurately reflect how a team might approach negotiations. For instance, the cap-strapped Saints didn't throw around any offers here, but the Patriots have money to spend -- and it showed. Once all the offers came in, national NFL reporter Dan Graziano played the role of player rep, mulling the proposals and "signing" each of the stars to a new deal.

So who is headed to a new team, and who re-signed for another go with his current franchise? Who earned the big bucks? Let's predict this offseason's free agency for Sam Darnold, Ronnie Stanley, Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, D.J. Reed and Jevon Holland. Here are some hypothetical pitches and landing spots. (Zack Baun was originally part of this project, but he signed an extension. You can see offers for Baun at the bottom.)

Jump to:
Darnold | Stanley | Sweat
Williams | Reed | Holland

Sam Darnold, QB

2024 team: Minnesota Vikings
Free agency ranking: No. 4

2024 stats: 4,319 passing yards, 35 TD passes, 12 INTs

Raiders' offer: Three years, $125 million ($55 million guaranteed)

New Raiders coach Pete Carroll wants his team to win right away, and the key to making his goal a reality is landing a franchise quarterback. This year's QB draft class isn't as strong as last year, which could force Las Vegas to be aggressive in free agency and give Darnold a big-time deal after a career season. He's only 27 years old, and his skill set should fit coordinator Chip Kelly's offense.

The AFC West is loaded at quarterback, and Darnold can make an immediate impact -- which the Raiders desperately need. They were 30th in QBR last season at 40.4. -- Ryan McFadden

Titans' offer: Three years, $120 million ($85 million guaranteed)

This deal gets Darnold to the coveted $40 million yearly average and offers an opportunity for him to be the starter for the next three years. Darnold would also get to reenter the free agent market at 30 years old to get another crack at a big contract. The Titans can use more of their free agent funds -- and turn to the draft -- to complement Darnold while he attempts to prove himself capable of being their long-term answer. We'll also toss in an opt-out option on this deal after two years. -- Turron Davenport

The decision: Darnold agrees on a new deal with the ... Titans

The higher guarantee swings it. Here, Darnold would have a little bit of a concern that the Titans might also take a guy in the draft, leaving him to potentially get Kirk Cousins-ed, but the Raiders bring that same concern. This is more money, and Darnold would still get to hit free agency again at 29 or 30. -- Graziano

Ronnie Stanley, OT

2024 team: Baltimore Ravens
Free agency ranking: No. 1

2024 stats: 17 starts, 92.3% pass block win rate

Patriots' offer: Four years, $100 million ($65 million guaranteed)

Left tackle is one of the team's top needs. Ensuring Drake Maye's blind side is protected by a capable, proven veteran would be a major first step to a productive offseason of team-building. Also, bringing in a leader who has played in big games -- as a steadying presence on and off the field -- is worth an overpay. As coach Mike Vrabel said, "I think everyone overspends sometimes in free agency."

This is a standard contract with a signing bonus, designed to have Stanley earn all four years of it. We're not backloading it to make it look better -- the $25 million yearly average is meant to show Stanley how serious the Pats are, tying him with Laremy Tunsil for third highest in the NFL at the position. With almost $130 million in cap space (per Roster Management System), the Patriots are ready to spend. -- Mike Reiss

Ravens' offer: Three years, $60 million ($43 million guaranteed)

At the combine, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said he was optimistic that Baltimore would get a deal done with Stanley. That means the Ravens plan to make a competitive offer but will need help to fit him under Baltimore's tight cap.

This deal is a win for Stanley because the contract averages $20 million per season, which would put him among the top 10 highest-paid left tackles. It's a win for the Ravens because Stanley's first-year cap hit would be a team-friendly $12 million. (We'll include a $16 million signing bonus as part of the guaranteed money, and $7 million of the $43 million guaranteed will come in the final year of the deal.) -- Jamison Hensley

The decision: Stanley agrees on a new deal with the ... Patriots

This is the kind of deal that makes a player feel as if the team wants to build its offseason around him. Stanley considers himself one of the elite left tackles in the league, and this is a contract that shows the Patriots agree. -- Graziano

Josh Sweat, Edge

2024 team: Philadelphia Eagles
Free agency ranking: No. 5

2024 stats: 8 sacks, 33 pressures

Cardinals' offer: Three years, $43 million ($21 million guaranteed)

The Cardinals seriously need help at pass rusher. They were 28th in pass rush win rate in 2024 at 33.3%. The position has been a liability the past two seasons because of injuries to presumptive and actual starters.

Sweat, who will be 28 in March, would give instant credibility to Arizona's pass rush. He also has experience playing for Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon, who was his defensive coordinator in 2021 and 2022 -- Sweat's best two-season stretch in sacks. He had 7.5 in 2021 and 11 in 2022. Arizona would include a $12 million signing bonus and incentives for cracking 10, 12 and 15 sacks each season. -- Josh Weinfuss

Commanders' offer: Three years, $60 million ($40 million guaranteed)

Washington needs a defensive end adept at both rushing the passer and setting an edge against the run. The Commanders have two ends who are free agents in Clelin Ferrell and Dante Fowler Jr. Sweat's length and quick get-off -- 1.55 seconds in the 10-yard split -- will appeal to Washington. Plus, he can rush inside on stunts. -- John Keim

Packers' offer: Four years, $72 million ($24 million guaranteed)

The Packers desperately want to put pressure on the quarterback without blitzing. That's defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley's ideal scenario. It didn't happen enough last season, and Green Bay watched Philadelphia dominate the line of scrimmage in the wild-card playoff meeting. The guaranteed money is entirely in a signing bonus, and we'd have roster bonuses in the range of $4 million to $8.5 million in March of each year of the deal. -- Rob Demovsky

Panthers' offer: Four years, $78 million ($46.8 million guaranteed)

The Panthers want to rebuild the defensive front the way they did with the offensive line last season. Adding an edge rusher such as Sweat -- who has 33 sacks over the past three seasons -- makes sense. Nobody on the Panthers had more than 5.5 sacks last season on a unit that ranked 29th in total sacks with 32.

Sweat is headed into his prime, and he played in a 3-4 scheme -- similar to what the Panthers used last season -- under Vic Fangio in Philly. -- David Newton

The decision: Sweat agrees on a new deal with the ... Commanders

Washington's offer has the highest average annual salary, and though the Packers and Panthers were offering four years, the guarantee here is better than Green Bay's and pretty close to Carolina's. Sweat just played in the Super Bowl, and Washington gives him a chance to get back there over the next three years with what the Commanders are building. -- Graziano

Milton Williams, DT

2024 team: Philadelphia Eagles
Free agency ranking: No. 6

2024 stats: 5 sacks, 18 pressures

Broncos' offer: Three years, $73 million ($40 million guaranteed)

With two sacks and a forced fumble in the Eagles' Super Bowl win, Williams -- who turns 26 in April -- made quite a closing argument for his impending free agency. He is one of the best interior disrupters available. And with Broncos defensive tackle D.J. Jones poised for free agency, Williams would fit well in Vance Joseph's attacking defense in Denver. This deal would allow him to hit the market again before he's 30. -- Jeff Legwold

Patriots' offer: Four years, $97 million ($55 million guaranteed)

This is built off the Alim McNeill contract from last October. The Patriots have made it clear they want to build the lines on both sides of the ball. Going hard after Stanley and Williams would prove that, as they are two of the best players available on each side. -- Mike Reiss

Vikings' offer: Four years, $96 million ($75 million guaranteed)

The Vikings tried to sign free agent Christian Wilkins last season to give them some juice on the interior of the defensive line, and they'll take another swing here. Over the past two seasons, they have 91 sacks -- but only nine have come from defensive tackles. -- Kevin Seifert

The decision: Williams agrees on a new deal with the ... Vikings

It was between Minnesota and Denver, and the fourth year on the deal and the stronger guarantee push this toward the Vikings. This is also a team that won 14 games last season, and while there's a lot to like about Denver's trajectory, the Vikings are already a contender. They give Williams the best chance to get back to the Super Bowl soon. -- Graziano

D.J. Reed, CB

2024 team: New York Jets
Free agency ranking: No. 2

2024 stats: 64 tackles, 10 pass breakups, 0 INTs

Giants' offer: Four years, $72 million ($40 million guaranteed)

The Giants need a No. 1 cornerback in the worst way, and Reed is the best option on the free agent market. He can cover and tackle, and he has already proved capable of handling the New York market. Reed might not be your prototypical shutdown corner, but the Giants will pay him as such to move across town. Last season, they gave up 7.7 yards per pass attempt (29th) and had only five interceptions (31st). -- Jordan Raanan

Falcons' offer: Four years, $56 million ($33.6 million guaranteed)

Reed emerged as a top cornerback with the Jets under defensive coordinator (and then interim coach) Jeff Ulbrich, who is now the Falcons' defensive coordinator. Both would surely enjoy a reunion in Atlanta. The Falcons were worst in the league in opponent completion percentage (69.9%) and could use an elite corner opposite A.J. Terrell. But any deal with Reed would require the Falcons to shed significant salary. They are projected to be roughly $4.4 million over the cap, per Roster Management System. -- Marc Raimondi

Packers' offer: Four years, $60 million ($16.5 million guaranteed)

The Packers appear likely to move on from cornerback Jaire Alexander. If that's the case, this position might be their No. 1 need. And they might need to add more than one player at the spot.

For Reed, it would be a chance to play alongside veteran safety Xavier McKinney, a free agent pickup last year who flourished in defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley's scheme. The guaranteed money on this deal would be in the form of a signing bonus. -- Rob Demovsky

The decision: Reed agrees on a new deal with the ... Giants

The Packers were a lot of fun to think about here. But unless they get their offer a little closer to New York's -- it's a $3 million difference per year -- I can't justify turning down what the Giants are giving. Plus, Reed gets to stay in New Jersey. -- Graziano

Jevon Holland, S

2024 team: Miami Dolphins
Free agency ranking: No. 9

2024 stats: 62 tackles, 2 pass breakups, 0 INTs

Colts' offer: Four years, $64 million ($30 million guaranteed)

The Colts have a glaring need at safety. Plus, Indianapolis recently hired defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who runs a system that can put safeties in positions to thrive. This gives the Colts a distinct opportunity to get maximum impact out of a signing such as this. They have generally avoided splashy signings in free agency, but with their stated intent to upgrade the talent and a big need at the position, this is a sensible move. We'd do a $10 million signing bonus and guarantee the $7 million base salary in Year 1. -- Stephen Holder

Jets' offer: Four years, $80 million ($42 million guaranteed)

The Jets are desperate. Their top four safeties -- none of whom are star quality -- are pending free agents. Holland is young enough (he turned 25 on Monday) to be a foundational player for this new regime. Jets fans already are familiar with him. In 2023, Holland intercepted a Hail Mary and returned it 99 yards for a touchdown against quarterback Tim Boyle.

Though Talanoa Hufanga and Tre'von Moehrig are other options, Holland goes a long way in improving this defense. This deal would have a $20 million signing bonus, and we'd guarantee the first- and second-year base salaries. I'd tack on one void year for cap purposes. -- Rich Cimini

The decision: Holland agrees on a new deal with the ... Jets

Honestly, these offers weren't close. I really expected more teams to be interested, but if this is what I'm choosing between, it's not difficult. The Jets are offering $4 million more per year and $12 million more in guarantees. -- Graziano

Editor's note: Baun signed an extension on Wednesday and is no longer a free agent.

Zack Baun, LB

2024 team: Philadelphia Eagles

2024 stats: 150 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT

Eagles' offer: Three years, $36 million ($14 million guaranteed)

Baun was moved from the edge to middle linebacker by defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and quickly developed into an All-Pro player. Quick to diagnose, he was routinely in position and disruptive at the point of attack, as evidenced by his five forced fumbles in the regular season to lead the No. 1 defense in football. His versatility and instincts were critical to Fangio's scheme and would be difficult to replace. (Jeremiah Trotter Jr. showed some potential his rookie year, but Nakobe Dean is recovering from a torn patellar tendon and Oren Burks is set to become a free agent.) -- Tim McManus

Falcons' offer: Three years, $31.3 million ($17.6 million guaranteed)

Inside linebacker is probably not the Falcons' top priority, with edge rusher and cornerback being on the front burner. But new Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich has promised a defense that will be more multiple than just strictly lining up in a 3-4 or a 4-3. For that to work, Atlanta needs versatile linebackers, and Baun fits that bill. We'd include a $5 million signing bonus and put a potential opt-out in this deal after 2027. -- Marc Raimondi

The decision: Baun agrees on a new deal with the ... Eagles

Straight up, Philadelphia is offering more money. The Eagles also jump-started his career and made him a local favorite and a Super Bowl champ. Baun already knows he can dominate in Fangio's system, and he likes the team and the city. He's staying put here. -- Graziano