FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- Barring injury or an improbable return by Aaron Rodgers, Zach Wilson will be the New York Jets' starting quarterback for the final four games. He has four opportunities to solidify his place in the team's 2024 plans. Or four chances to convince another team he'd be a worthwhile reclamation project.
Wilson's future, once bright and shiny, is now one of the biggest questions surrounding the Jets. Ordinarily, a backup quarterback doesn't warrant this sort of attention, but he's not your typical QB2 due to his draft pedigree (selected No. 2 overall in the 2021 NFL draft) and what he represents. If he's traded in the offseason, as many expect, it leaves the Jets with no post-Rodgers succession plan.
Even if the organization no longer considers Wilson a worthy heir apparent, it must weigh his value as a backup. The backup quarterback market figures to be robust in the offseason, considering the rash of injuries (16 teams have started multiple quarterbacks). If the Jets move on from Wilson, 24, they will need to secure a viable insurance policy. And that won't be cheap.
All of this creates a fascinating choice: Will the Jets call it quits after a three-year marriage that hasn't lived up to expectations? Does Wilson, perhaps worn down mentally by the constant scrutiny and negativity, want to come back?
Right now, it's easy to bang the "Keep Wilson" drum because he's coming off the best game of his career -- 27-for-36, 301 yards and two touchdown passes in a 30-6 win over the Houston Texans. But let's not forget, in his first nine starts after replacing the injured Rodgers, Wilson led the offense to eight touchdowns in 108 drives and was benched.
Does the organization really want to run it back with Wilson as Rodgers' primary backup in 2024? That would be risky, considering the way this season has unfolded.
Wilson said he's focused on the present, not what lies ahead in the offseason, adding that he hasn't discussed his future with the team. One of his hometown newspapers, the Utah-based Deseret News, reported last weekend that the Jets told Wilson after his Nov. 20 benching that they will trade him in the offseason. Coach Robert Saleh wouldn't confirm or deny the report.
"Anything can happen, especially in this sport," said Saleh, commenting on whether Wilson will be on the team next season. "It's like a New York minute, right? It swings from one pendulum to the next."
It was a cryptic response by Saleh, the first time he declined to say Wilson -- under contract for 2024 -- will be part of the Jets' future. At least one teammate expects him to be playing elsewhere next year. Wide receiver Allen Lazard said last week Wilson seems more relaxed than ever, "understanding he's got only a few weeks left here."
Wilson is good at masking his feelings, but he has acknowledged on multiple occasions that his career hasn't turned out as hoped. He admitted the ups and downs have been "frustrating." He has been benched three times in the last 13 months, the last time in favor of career journeyman Tim Boyle, who struggled in his two starts.
Replacing Boyle last week, Wilson made a handful of off-schedule plays, reminding everyone of the player he was for BYU in 2020. Watching from a suite at MetLife Stadium, former Jets star Ken O'Brien -- a member of the celebrated quarterback Class of '83 -- said Wilson looked "completely different" from the quarterback who mostly sputtered through his first 31 starts. O'Brien described the performance as "a growing point" for Wilson. He looked confident and unburdened, according to O'Brien, who previously saw a quarterback who didn't seem comfortable with his decision making.
"It certainly helps having Aaron Rodgers there, but no matter who's there, you have to figure it out for yourself on your own terms," O'Brien told ESPN. "To me, it was a moment of clarity."
Perhaps, but soon it will become a business decision. The Jets must decide whether to pick up Wilson's fifth-year option (for 2025) by early May, but there's little chance of them exercising it. The amount last year for a quarterback was $23 million, and it figures to increase. By rule, it's fully guaranteed.
Wilson is due to count $11.2 million on the cap in 2024 -- steep for a backup, but palatable because Rodgers is on the books for a relatively modest $17.2 million. (This is where his massive pay cut comes in handy.) Wilson is scheduled to make $5.5 million in salary and bonuses -- all guaranteed -- which comes off the cap if they can find a team willing to trade for his existing contract.
If that happens, the Jets can invest that money in a proven backup. The Tennessee Titans' Ryan Tannehill and the Indianapolis Colts' Gardner Minshew would be options. There's a connection with Tannehill, as passing game coordinator Todd Downing coached him in Tennessee.
For now, Wilson must prove last week wasn't an aberration, starting Sunday against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Consistency has been an issue from Day 1. For his career, he has yet to post a passer rating of 90.0 or better in consecutive starts. His rating was a career-best 117.9 against the Texans.
"Wash, rinse, repeat," said Saleh, spelling out what he expects.