Through two games in 2013, the Cleveland Browns have scored a total of 16 points. And as Browns general manager Michael Lombardi was watching the team on Sunday -- when the Browns scored six points against a Baltimore defense that had been thrashed the week before -- in a game in which Trent Richardson was stuffed short over and over because the Ravens had little respect for the Browns' passing game, he might have been thinking, "If only I could redo the 2012 draft."
After all, when the Browns drafted Trent Richardson at No. 3 overall, and Brandon Weeden at No. 22, Lombardi wasn't in charge.
Well, now he is. And after trading Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2014 first-round pick, he does get to redo the draft, with two first-round picks of his own this May.
It's a great move for the Browns, who just got a ton of value for a player they couldn't maximize anyway. And now they'll have two Round 1 selections in a draft that should be loaded with QB talent, which is the No. 1 need in Cleveland.
A few thoughts on why I like the trade:
1. Richardson's value is diminished in Cleveland
Many Cleveland fans are probably mad based on the loss of talent in the short term. But they're simply seeing star potential and not seeing relative value. It's not a shot at him, but Richardson simply doesn't have that much value to a team that can't consistently move the ball through the air. If you're mad the Browns just gave up what some might call a "franchise back," just ask yourself this: How good is the offense with him? How much is Richardson really worth to this Browns team? Is he capable of making this a decent offense on his own or adding more wins? Is he appreciably better than a player like Washington Redskins RB Alfred Morris, who was drafted 170 spots later? Just check the Vegas lines. A game with or without Richardson might be worth a half point.
If you're still using old maxims like, "You need the run to set up the pass!" you need to re-educate yourself on where the NFL is at. A franchise running back is practically an oxymoron. The Browns can't get great value out of Richardson because they don't have an even adequate passing game, and defenses know it. I was there on Sunday in Baltimore, and in Richardson I saw just another good running back with no chance against a stacked box of defenders. It's why before this trade he was on his way to yet another season in which he could average fewer than 4 yards per carry. (He's at 3.4 yards per carry through two games. He was at 3.6 last year.)
2. This draft could offer big help for the Browns
The Browns have a pretty good defense. They even have a couple of good pieces on the offensive line, a brilliant left tackle among them. But this is a league in which the rules are literally set to help passing offenses, and the Browns don't have a franchise quarterback … and they're dreadfully inconsistent at wide receiver. The addition of another first-round pick gives them the ability to take a QB in the first round of a 2014 draft that should be loaded with talent at quarterback. You could have the likes of Teddy Bridgewater, Brett Hundley, Marcus Mariota, Tajh Boyd, Johnny Manziel and a number of other really interesting prospects. With the added first-round pick, the Browns could even take the guy they believe is a franchise QB in Round 1 and add a depth flier later on.
After what you're seeing to start 2013, did you really want to go into 2014 with Weeden and Richardson at this same level and assume things would be better?
3. The Browns got remarkable draft value for a running back
It seems almost absurd that any team could get a first-round pick in return for a running back in today's NFL. When undrafted free agents like Arian Foster can lead the league in rushing, or rookies like Morris can put up huge totals, everyone knows that this is a position more beholden to surroundings than almost any other. And remember, Richardson already played a full season with an injury. He also came into the 2012 draft with some minor injury concerns. I'm surprised a team could get a first-rounder for any running back, much less one with any recent injury issues. And remember, the value of a first-round pick has never been higher. You're essentially drafting assumed starters, and doing so knowing they'll be on the roster at a low price for years to come.
I understand what Indy is doing. The Colts are looking to establish a power run game to complement and protect a great quarterback. They want to become more multiple. But they're doing that because they have that great quarterback. A healthy Richardson has far more value to them than he does to the Browns.
I understand what the Colts did. But I love what the Browns did.
Richardson is a good player, but he's not the difference between winning and losing in Cleveland -- this year or next. He could be out of Cleveland by the time he truly has value. Cleveland now has 10 total picks in the 2014 draft, including two 1s, two 3s and two 4s. The 2014 draft could change the entire direction of the franchise, and at worst will significantly upgrade the talent on this roster. This is a bet Cleveland had to make.