Allow me to confirm what your eyes are likely telling you: This is not the same Aaron Rodgers we saw in 2011.
Rodgers himself recently agreed he hasn't performed to his standards in 2012, but a look at the stats alone tells the tale. His TD/INT ratio sits at a pedestrian 2.5-1 versus last season's superhuman 7.5-1. His yards per attempt has dropped from 9.25 to 6.91. His QBR has plummeted more than 25 points from 86.2 to 59.8.
Considering that Rodgers' performance in 2011 was one of the most masterful ever, it's not surprising we're seeing him slip back a little bit in 2012. The real question, is whether the QB I recently ranked No. 1 in the league can correct the problems that have contributed to the Packers' surprising 2-3 start. Is this just a fluke? Bad luck? Or do Rodgers and the Green Bay offense have significant issues they need to address in order for the Packers to turn their fortunes around? To the chagrin of Packers fans, after consulting the film I tend to think it's the latter.
In general, Rodgers has not been particularly sharp through the first five weeks of the season. He has missed open receivers on throws he would consistently make over the past couple of seasons. Accuracy has never been a problem, so what's causing the misfires?
When I see him on film, Rodgers seems uncomfortable and rushed in the pocket when making his throws down the field. He appears too quick and rushed at the top of his drop in terms of his weight transfer and throwing motion, resulting in inaccurate passes over distance. So far in 2012, the Packers have had only three pass plays gain more than 30 yards, tied for the fifth fewest in the league, according to ESPN Stats & Information. A season ago, the Packers led the league in that category. Last Sunday, Rodgers missed Jordy Nelson on a vertical route early against the Colts that should have resulted in a touchdown. But instead of seeing Rodgers' normal deft touch, I saw a flat pass with poor trajectory.
The Packers' receiving corps hasn't helped at times. In fact, according to ESPN Stats & Information, their drop rate is up around 50 percent compared to the first five games in 2011. Jordy Nelson already has dropped four passes this season, compared with two in all of 2011. Another particularly significant offender has been TE Jermichael Finley (three drops in 2012). When the Packers' offense is clicking, Finley is a big component, controlling the middle of the field. When you can control the middle of the field, you control all of the field. That lack of control in the middle is a big reason Rodgers has completed only 58.2 percent of his passes outside the numbers this season, compared with 67.8 a season ago. Those throws to the outside of the field have also led to three interceptions, which leads to our next point.
The 2011 MVP also has shown questionable field vision and progression reading and it is directly costing the Packers. On Rodgers' first interception last week on third-and-2 in the third quarter, he declined to use the bunch, bubble screen play call. He had a 3-on-3 situation, meaning his blocking in place, and I think they would have had a first down. Instead he threw a back shoulder fade to the backside to James Jones. Colts CB Jerraud Powers had Jones covered with safety help over the top, so he was able to aggressively cover the back shoulder fade throw. It was a great catch by the corner, but it was also surprising to me because Rodgers has always handled those kinds of pivotal plays so well.
I don't think Rodgers has had a "calm head" to this point of the season, a product -- I believe -- of the pummeling he took in Seattle in Week 3. He has been quickly going from side to side in his reads and seems unsure and rushed in his progressions, which leads him to miss some reads and causes his mechanics to break down when pulling the trigger. All of it adds up to inaccurate passes to his open receivers and at times some forced throws into coverage.
A great example was the third-quarter sack by Cory Redding last week in which Rodgers moved his head from right to left twice. The head movement caused by Redding forced Rodgers to not pull the trigger on an open WR slant by Nelson and led to the takedown.
I like that example for another reason as well: It combines all the symptoms of Rodgers' early struggles and points directly to the diagnosis of Rodgers' erratic play. Green Bay's offensive line struggled to block Indy's pass-rushers last week. The Packers' offensive tackles, Marshall Newhouse and Bryan Bulaga, consistently allowed edge pressure that forced Rodgers to move within the block. Moreover, center Jeff Saturday played poorly and struggles to move to stay in position to make his blocks in pass protection schemes. The simple truth? Green Bay's offensive line has not been good and needs help if the Packers want to pull out of their early struggles.
After 21 sacks to date in 2012 -- the second highest total in the league -- I believe the Packers' problems with the pass rush are starting to get to Rodgers and defenders, as I like to say, are renting space in the quarterback's head. Now, how does Green Bay evict them?
Let me be blunt, quarterbacks don't like to get hit. Heck, we even heard former Ole Miss QB Seth Smith say as much after a baseball game Wednesday night. Buddy Ryan based the entire philosophy of his defense on punishing the quarterback after he saw the lengths Weeb Ewbank went to in order to keep Joe Namath upright. The more QBs get hit, the less effective they are.
If the Packers want to get Rodgers back into MVP form, they have to keep the pressure off of him. And I'm very interested to see how they handle that challenge this Sunday against the Texans.
I'm convinced the Packers' line will go to bed with J.J. Watt haunting their dreams this week. Given their track record to this point, they're going to need help to keep him away from Rodgers. I think we could see more max protection packages with two tight ends. Heck, if Jermichael Finley is going to keep dropping balls, he can at least make himself useful by protecting the passer. I also think we could see fewer five-wide formations and more instances where the Packers keep a back in to help block. And the Packers absolutely need to stick with the run.
I understand the tendency to reflexively say that running the ball will be a problem with Cedric Benson injured, but the Packers have succeeded with RBs less talented than Alex Green in the past. They will have to succeed Sunday to keep Watt and Co. from teeing off every down.
The good news is that the talent that guided Rodgers to an MVP season in 2011 hasn't mysteriously vanished. I still see all of the traits from a year ago on the film in 2012, but all too often they're being masked by defensive pressure on the pocket. I still believe he remains the NFL's top QB, but the Packers need to better protect Rodgers from the pass rush and allow him to do what he does best -- win football games.
Notes from the film room
• Brace yourself for some positive comments regarding the play of Jets QB Mark Sanchez. Sanchez played a solid game last week against the Texans in making several good throws into tight coverage. And he had to. His WRs struggled to generate much separation when running their routes. Sanchez was also under pressure most of the game. The QB is always the lightning rod, but the Jets' struggles are not all on Sanchez. A struggling O-line and poor WR corps equal a bad combination for the Jets' passing effectiveness.
• One of the all-time great LBs, Ray Lewis (in his 17th season), has struggled both in defending the run and the pass. Lewis' movement ability has greatly decreased over the past couple of seasons and he has struggled to make plays in space. Against Kansas City last week, Lewis showed the tendency to give ground when scraping laterally in defending the run, and when blockers approach him.
• New England ran 89 offensive plays last week in its win over Denver, but more surprisingly they had 50 called runs (53 including the three QB kneel downs at end of the game) and dropped back to pass on only 36 plays. The Patriots ran the ball on 59 percent of their offensive plays and controlled the game with nearly 36 minutes of time of possession in the game.
• Although Peyton Manning does not throw the ball as well as he once did, Denver's offense is still one of the most efficient in the NFL because of his cerebral understanding of the game and the type of throws he generally makes. Manning mainly attacks the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, most of the time in the middle of the field. However, he will take a few shots down the field when the defense dictates it and the occasional isolation to the outside -- though normally on the short side of field.