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Updated NFL QB rankings

Four games may not seem like much of a sample, but in the reality of the 16-game NFL, it is a key number. Not only does that represent the quarter pole for the season, but when teams break down film to prep for upcoming games, they scrutinize their opponents' previous four games. It's a rubric I've followed in my career and as an analyst, and I'm going to use it to help guide my QB Big Board.

This ranking is not an end-all-be-all, permanent evaluation. Guys will improve -- and regress -- and that movement will be represented on this ranking every four weeks. What this QB Big Board does is combine a quarterback's historical performance with how he is playing at a certain time of the season to form a ranking of the NFL's top quarterbacks at that moment.

There are a few changes to my previous list, including how I generated it. Last offseason, I watched every throw of every NFL quarterback from 2011 to generate my initial rankings. Due to time constraints, I can't make that same claim now. Rest assured, though, that this list is the product of regular film study from the NFL Films offices each week.

Previously I omitted all of the rookies from the preseason rankings, because you can't properly evaluate where they fit when they've never thrown a pass against an NFL defense. Now that we've seen a sample of their talents -- albeit a small one -- I've added them to the mix. And let's just say it's an impressive debut for Robert Griffin III.

RG3 makes his debut at No. 17, meaning he's just outside the top half of NFL quarterbacks. Honestly, I never thought I'd rank a rookie this high. The trouble is, Griffin has not played like a rookie. What separates him from his first-year peers is his consistency. Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill have made some great plays in their young careers, but they've also made some bad ones. I haven't seen that erratic play when it comes to Griffin, hence his extraordinary debut ranking.

Erratic play has plagued a couple of veterans, which is why Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel and Jay Cutler are among the biggest drops on my board. Protecting the football is the most important thing you can do as a quarterback. If you lose the turnover battle by one or more, you lose the game 80 percent of the time. It's as simple as that. And it's one thing to make bad reads and bad decisions as a rookie. But at this point in their careers, those three have no excuse.

But there is better news for a few others. And even if Aaron Rodgers has not looked as dominant as he did during his fantastic 2011 campaign, he remains at the top of my rankings. Let's get into some details.


Jaws' QB Rankings

Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers

#12 QB
Green Bay Packers

2012 STATS

  • Att156
  • Comp109
  • Yds1064
  • TD7
  • Int3
  • Rat95.7

1. Aaron Rodgers
Previous:
1

Rodgers is still playing at a high level, but against the Seahawks he got beaten up pretty good and became a little frenetic in the pocket. His biggest problem has been his offensive line, which has failed to give him much protection. Add the injury to Greg Jennings, and Rodgers has been a little shorthanded early. The Packers need to tighten the line and get healthy. I also think they need to get more from TE Jermichael Finley, who has not yet played to his potential.


Tom Brady

Tom Brady

#12 QB
New England Patriots

2012 STATS

  • Att154
  • Comp101
  • Yds1227
  • TD7
  • Int1
  • Rat102.4

2 . Tom Brady
Previous:
3

Not surprisingly, Brady remains near the top of the list and even moves up a slot. I really like what the Pats are doing with the ball this season, committing to the run and bringing more balance to the offense. This emphasis will help reduce the hits on Brady and extend his longevity in the league. I think what we saw in Week 4 against Buffalo is a good indicator of what we'll see going forward. They'll accentuate the run, use more three tight-end sets, then take some shots using play-action or spread you out. And when you see a game in which two running backs and two receivers both top 100 yards, you know Brady is using all of his weapons.


Eli Manning

Eli Manning

#10 QB
New York Giants

2012 STATS

  • Att160
  • Comp103
  • Yds1320
  • TD7
  • Int4
  • Rat94.3

3. Eli Manning
Previous:
5

Manning made a poor decision against the Eagles by throwing a costly interception in the end zone, but he otherwise has been very solid all season. With Hakeem Nicks sidelined and Ahmad Bradshaw also missing time, the Giants' offense has been shorthanded, and Manning has raised his game to compensate. Whether it's Ramses Barden or someone else stepping into the Giants' scheme, he doesn't miss a beat. He continues to improve in all phases of the game -- particularly with his pre- and post-snap decisions and his accuracy. I don't think the Giants would stand at 2-2 without Manning's strong early play.


Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning

#18 QB
Denver Broncos

2012 STATS

  • Att153
  • Comp99
  • Yds1162
  • TD8
  • Int3
  • Rat96.9

4. Peyton Manning
Previous:
4

It was the past six quarters he's played that kept Peyton Manning at No. 4 for me. I wasn't sure what we'd see as he returned to the NFL, but it's clear that he is back. He's not yet at 100 percent. I haven't seen the velocity return and I haven't seen him spin it like he's capable of, but he's getting closer each game. There may be a little bit of projection here, but based on his previous body of work, I think Manning deserves the benefit of the doubt.


Drew Brees

Drew Brees

#9 QB
New Orleans Saints

2012 STATS

  • Att191
  • Comp110
  • Yds1350
  • TD10
  • Int5
  • Rat86.1

5. Drew Brees
Previous:
2

Brees represents our first drop in the rankings. Maybe I'm being harsh, given the circumstances he's faced in New Orleans this season, but I've seen things from Brees in 2012 that I haven't seen before. Take that interception against Carolina that was returned for a touchdown. That's not a play characteristic of Brees, and those slips in decision-making are a little too frequent thus far. These are the sorts of mistakes that happen when you're trying to do too much, when you're playing from behind and trying to make a play. Still, because of those unforced errors, I have to drop him.


Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan

#2 QB
Atlanta Falcons

2012 STATS

  • Att147
  • Comp102
  • Yds1162
  • TD11
  • Int2
  • Rat112.1

6. Matt Ryan
Previous:
11

This marks a big breakthrough for Ryan as he rises five spots and into the top 10. I love the maturation I've seen in his game this season, particularly when it comes to the no-huddle offense. When you're a QB, you earn your doctorate when you can execute a potent attack from the line of scrimmage. If the Falcons keep playing like they have to start 2012, I can easily see Dr. Ice graduating to the top 5.


Ben Roethlisberger

Ben Roethlisberger

#7 QB
Pittsburgh Steelers

2012 STATS

  • Att120
  • Comp82
  • Yds904
  • TD8
  • Int1
  • Rat109.2

7. Ben Roethlisberger
Previous:
6

He is just a big oak tree in the pocket. I know we've heard a lot about Todd Haley incorporating more short, quick passing into the Pittsburgh playbook, but the film doesn't show that. This is a vertical passing attack and when you have the weapons the Steelers have -- WRs Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, and TE Heath Miller -- why wouldn't you take advantage of them? But it's Roethlisberger's ability to move in the pocket and extend the play that allows those deep routes to develop. The Steelers may be 1-2, but with the defense getting healthy and RB Rashard Mendenhall returning, I expect that record to change for the better in a big way.


Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco

#5 QB
Baltimore Ravens

2012 STATS

  • Att156
  • Comp99
  • Yds1269
  • TD7
  • Int3
  • Rat95.8

8. Joe Flacco
Previous:
9

Flacco moves up a notch and has the potential to continue his rise. He has talent around him and it's clear that Cam Cameron has full confidence in him, handing him the keys to the offense. He missed a few throws late against the Eagles that would have given the Ravens a chance at another victory, but overall I see him improving every time he takes the field.


Matt Schaub

Matt Schaub

#8 QB
Houston Texans

2012 STATS

  • Att124
  • Comp83
  • Yds953
  • TD7
  • Int1
  • Rat105.3

9. Matt Schaub
Previous:
13

At the beginning of the season, I truly thought that Schaub could be an MVP candidate, and he has played that way so far. The Texans have more offensive dimensions that any other team. They can attack short or deep with their receivers, their tight ends are fast and, of course, they can run the ball. Add the offensive line, and Schaub has everything a QB could ask for. But you still have to take advantage. Schaub has done that so far, becoming a top-10 QB in the process. And when all is said and done, I expect we will hear his name as a 2012 MVP candidate.


Philip Rivers

Philip Rivers

#17 QB
San Diego Chargers

2012 STATS

  • Att126
  • Comp87
  • Yds897
  • TD6
  • Int4
  • Rat91.9

10. Philip Rivers
Previous:
7
I've always been a big Rivers fan, but he has not been as sharp this season. His play has been a bit uneven but when I watch him, I still see a high-level understanding of the game. The Chargers aren't running the ball as well as they need to, because I think Rivers' best reads are the result of play-action.


Tony Romo

Tony Romo

#9 QB
Dallas Cowboys

2012 STATS

  • Att151
  • Comp101
  • Yds1148
  • TD5
  • Int8
  • Rat78.5

11. Tony Romo
Previous:
10

Let me answer your question before you ask it: How can Romo rank ahead of Jay Cutler after what we saw Monday night? Simple. Not all interceptions are created equal. Romo was victimized by a drop by Kevin Ogletree and a mental mistake by Dez Bryant. Yes, turnovers have been a common factor for Romo, but the score and game situations often prompt most of those miscues. The Dallas line is not good. Period. But Romo's ability to avoid the rush, get outside the pocket and throw is probably second to none. He erases all kinds of mistakes for the Cowboys. Without him, Dallas may not win a game. He needs more help.


Michael Vick

Michael Vick

#7 QB
Philadelphia Eagles

2012 STATS

  • Att155
  • Comp88
  • Yds1146
  • TD4
  • Int6
  • Rat72.7

12. Michael Vick
Previous:
12

The Eagles easily could be 0-4, and nine turnovers through four games is too many, but his performance against the Giants convinced me to keep Vick at No. 12. He really got it going Sunday night, staying patient in the pocket, making his reads and only taking to the run when his passing options were exhausted. That's how Philadelphia needs Vick to play from here on out.


Jay Cutler

Jay Cutler

#6 QB
Chicago Bears

2012 STATS

  • Att117
  • Comp67
  • Yds917
  • TD5
  • Int6
  • Rat75.3

13. Jay Cutler
Previous:
8

Cutler now has 81 NFL starts under his belt and still we see him forcing balls into double coverage and making decisions he just can't make at this stage of his career. We know he has the physical tools to succeed, but he has to be more careful with the football. Until he is, he'll never reach his full potential.


Andy Dalton

Andy Dalton

#14 QB
Cincinnati Bengals

2012 STATS

  • Att126
  • Comp85
  • Yds1111
  • TD8
  • Int4
  • Rat103.0

14. Andy Dalton
Previous:
19

When I think of Dalton, I think of efficiency. This is an aggressive offense and Jay Gruden understands the talent he has on this side of the ball. A.J. Green is a a great security blanket for Dalton, and this is a tandem that will only get better. I don't see a lot of dumb mental errors like I normally spot in second-year quarterbacks. He just understands what he's supposed to do with the football.


Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford

#9 QB
Detroit Lions

2012 STATS

  • Att173
  • Comp114
  • Yds1182
  • TD3
  • Int4
  • Rat81.6

15. Matthew Stafford
Previous:
14

When I look at Detroit, I see an enigma. There is a lot of talent, but they appear to be floundering. I'm not sure they know what they want to do with the football. And if I sense that while just looking at the tape, what do you think Stafford feels? Their running game is nonexistent. Their special teams are a disaster -- there doesn't seem to be any continuity from a season ago. For his part, Stafford's mechanics seem to slip at times. He has a tendency to drop his elbow, causing his throws to sail and resulting in a few INTs. He needs to address that while the Lions as a whole address the bigger picture problems.


Alex Smith

Alex Smith

#11 QB
San Francisco 49ers

2012 STATS

  • Att113
  • Comp76
  • Yds784
  • TD5
  • Int1
  • Rat98.1

16. Alex Smith
Previous:
16

Smith's best asset is probably his comprehensive understanding of the 49ers' offense. I knows exactly what he's supposed to do -- when to hit the short pass, when to take a shot deep and when to audible at the line. He also understands his limitations and the limitations of those around him. This is not the most physically gifted offense in the league, but their high-level of understanding and execution is what makes the Niners so good with the ball.


Robert Griffin III

Robert Griffin III

#10 QB
Washington Redskins

2012 STATS

  • Att124
  • Comp86
  • Yds1070
  • TD4
  • Int1
  • Rat103.2

17. Robert Griffin III
Previous:
NR - Rookie

To illustrate how un-rookie-like Griffin has been, just consider that RG3 likely would have a pair of game-winning drives under his belt if it weren't for Josh Morgan's unsportsmanlike conduct penalty against the Rams. And last week's drive against Tampa showed exactly why he is so good. On that final scramble play to set up the field goal, the Redskins had called a screen to the left side. Tampa read the play perfectly and had it covered. Griffin read the coverage, then felt the opening to his right when the Bucs' left end took an inside pass rush. He sensed the void, attacked it and Washington walked away with the win. Griffin has good players around him and Kyle Shanahan has made it easier for him with sound play-calling featuring simple either-or reads and a strong running game, but his individual talent has been astounding. It's only four games, though. We'll have to see where he goes from here.


Cam Newton

Cam Newton

#1 QB
Carolina Panthers

2012 STATS

  • Att107
  • Comp68
  • Yds1013
  • TD4
  • Int5
  • Rat87.5

18. Cam Newton
Previous:
15

I was a little concerned with his decision-making (and 17 INTs) last season and I've still seen him throw some ill-advised balls at bad times. Yes, Newton has an incredible skill set and we love to talk about his running, but when I evaluate quarterbacks, they have to excel inside the pocket and throwing the ball. I need to see improved accuracy and consistency before I raise him on my board.


Sam Bradford

Sam Bradford

#8 QB
St. Louis Rams

2012 STATS

  • Att125
  • Comp77
  • Yds881
  • TD4
  • Int4
  • Rat80.1

19. Sam Bradford
Previous:
20

Bradford has made a nice rebound from a year ago ... and I was really concerned last year. He was taking a pounding. I thought Bradford could turn into a case similar to that of Patrick Ramsey, another physically gifted quarterback whose development was stunted by getting repeatedly driven into the turf. But Bradford has shown tremendous courage and he's been doing all of the things an NFL QB has to despite the hits and the pressure. I think he's going to be a rock-solid guy in this system.


Christian Ponder

Christian Ponder

#7 QB
Minnesota Vikings

2012 STATS

  • Att123
  • Comp84
  • Yds824
  • TD4
  • Int0
  • Rat97.7

20. Christian Ponder
Previous:
28

I love how Bill Musgrave has handled Ponder's development this season. It is critical for young QBs to have success, and Musgrave's schemes have set him up for that. In Minnesota you'll see a lot of play-action passing, providing simple either-or reads. And with Adrian Peterson healthy, they haven't had to ask Ponder to win games by slinging the football all over the field.


Josh Freeman

Josh Freeman

#5 QB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2012 STATS

  • Att119
  • Comp65
  • Yds790
  • TD5
  • Int4
  • Rat75.3

21. Josh Freeman
Previous:
17

Freeman's drop is a product of inconsistency. At times, my guys in the film room and I will see him make a throw that just wows you. Other times, you wonder where the heck he was trying to throw the ball at all. Sometimes we want to elevate a guy to Canton before he's ready, and that could be the case with Freeman. The physical talent is all there and I think it's just a matter of time before it comes together, but he has to eliminate those head-scratchers.


Carson Palmer

Carson Palmer

#3 QB
Oakland Raiders

2012 STATS

  • Att162
  • Comp99
  • Yds1081
  • TD5
  • Int2
  • Rat86.0

22. Carson Palmer
Previous:
21

I think Palmer has something left in the tank. Against Pittsburgh, I saw a QB capable of cracking the top 10. He was dissecting the Steelers' coverages, which are more complex than most. It was in that game that I saw the Palmer from his Bengals' days. The problem is, he has a group of young, inconsistent players around him. As the season moves along, I think you'll see the Raiders' offense improve. One thing is for sure -- Palmer still has some bullets left in his arm.


Andrew Luck

Andrew Luck

#12 QB
Indianapolis Colts

2012 STATS

  • Att122
  • Comp65
  • Yds846
  • TD5
  • Int4
  • Rat75.4

23. Andrew Luck
Previous:
NR - Rookie

Luck and Tannehill (just below) are both here for the same reasons. You can see the physical skills, the tools, but you don't see consistency. As I mentioned earlier, four games is a very small sample to judge a rookie, but I have to make a call and slot them somewhere, right? I think Luck will have an outstanding NFL career. Not only does he have the arm talent, but you can see the intellect and the understanding of the Colts' schemes. But right now, you can also see the mistakes.


Ryan Tannehill

Ryan Tannehill

#17 QB
Miami Dolphins

2012 STATS

  • Att143
  • Comp80
  • Yds1046
  • TD2
  • Int6
  • Rat66.4

24. Ryan Tannehill
Previous:
NR - Rookie

It is incredible the way Tannehill not only has adapted to becoming an NFL quarterback, but simply just a quarterback overall. After all of his time playing wide receiver in college, I wondered if Tannehill could make the rapid transition. Through four games, it seems like he can and has. Joe Philbin and Mike Sherman have done a really good job getting him prepped for the NFL game. Like I see with most rookies, there have been some questionable throws. There have been some great ones as well, though, and that leaves me pretty high on Tannehill's future.


Kevin Kolb

Kevin Kolb

#4 QB
Arizona Cardinals

2012 STATS

  • Att107
  • Comp67
  • Yds752
  • TD7
  • Int2
  • Rat97.6

25. Kevin Kolb
Previous:
25

This is the guy I'm probably most happy for this season. I'm sure there's an element out there that thinks a QB with Larry Fitzgerald should be able to do more, but the reality is, the Cardinals really don't have much more than that. Their line is dreadful. I'm not sure how many times Kolb got hit against the Dolphins, but it looked like they were running tackling drills for Cameron Wake. And yet Kolb was resilient. He kept picking himself up and when the chips were down, he made the plays to win.


Mark Sanchez

Mark Sanchez

#6 QB
New York Jets

2012 STATS

  • Att128
  • Comp63
  • Yds813
  • TD5
  • Int4
  • Rat69.6

26. Mark Sanchez
Previous:
23

I'll be honest, I'm disappointed in Sanchez. When I spent four days at Jets camp before the season, I saw confidence, I saw swagger, I saw improved arm strength -- I truly thought this could be a big year for him. Instead, Sanchez has regressed in every game. It's true, the Jets can't run the ball, their line isn't good and their receivers are average -- and declining with Santonio Holmes out -- but these are precisely the situations in which Eli Manning has raised his game. Sanchez has been the antithesis of that. I still wouldn't consider starting Tim Tebow, but you know the Jets are going to have trouble moving the football, and the cries will get louder. I'm not sure how this team will find a way to win. They look rudderless.


Blaine Gabbert

Blaine Gabbert

#11 QB
Jacksonville Jaguars

2012 STATS

  • Att113
  • Comp63
  • Yds654
  • TD5
  • Int1
  • Rat83.7

27. Blaine Gabbert
Previous:
29

I'm very happy with what I've seen from Gabbert because I was very hard on him after last season. I thought he lacked the toughness to hold and deliver the ball while staring down the barrel of a blitzing linebacker. This season he has hung in there and made some remarkable throws. He put the big boy pads on and is ready to play some NFL football. I knew he had the upside -- he can make all of the throws -- it was just that question about his toughness. I'm happy to say he's proving me wrong so far this season.


Matt Cassel

Matt Cassel

#7 QB
Kansas City Chiefs

2012 STATS

  • Att161
  • Comp94
  • Yds1058
  • TD5
  • Int7
  • Rat70.4

28. Matt Cassel
Previous:
22

If this was Bradford and Tannehill on the Chiefs' film, I probably wouldn't be as hard on him. But Cassel is a veteran. Kansas City has a great running back in Jamaal Charles and a great receiver in Dwayne Bowe. The product should be better. It's not. Cassel continues to make the wrong throws. He'll loft the ball when he needs to drive it; he'll drive it when he needs to loft it. I think the Chiefs are getting close to taking a look at Brady Quinn. Cassel has got to pull himself out of this funk and stop putting his defense in bad positions with turnovers.


Jake Locker

Jake Locker

#10 QB
Tennessee Titans

2012 STATS

  • Att106
  • Comp67
  • Yds781
  • TD4
  • Int2
  • Rat90.2

29. Jake Locker
Previous:
NR - 1st Yr. Starter

Locker is going to miss some time and his wounds were self-inflicted. He should have read the blitz and when he didn't, he paid for it with a separated shoulder. That's too bad because we saw some flashes of potential. He clearly moves well in the pocket and can extend the play. It would have been nice to have him upright now, though. After Chris Johnson's breakout last week, Locker really could have benefited from the play-action we're sure to see Sunday.


Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ryan Fitzpatrick

#14 QB
Buffalo Bills

2012 STATS

  • Att125
  • Comp72
  • Yds931
  • TD12
  • Int7
  • Rat89.8

30. Ryan Fitzpatrick
Previous:
24

I think Fitzpatrick has gotten better mechanically, but he still doesn't set his feet all the time before he throws. Maybe my expectations were too high, but I thought he'd be a riser. You have to take care of the football. It's that simple. Yes, he's been victimized by some drops ... but some of those drops have been by defensive backs.


Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson

#3 QB
Seattle Seahawks

2012 STATS

  • Att100
  • Comp60
  • Yds594
  • TD4
  • Int4
  • Rat73.5

31. Russell Wilson
Previous:
NR - Rookie

I really think Wilson is going to be on the hot seat as long as he's a starter. I just believe he's always going to struggle because of his size. I know people will point to Doug Flutie and Brees, but when I look at the tape, it is clear to me that Wilson must move in order to see his targets downfield. He can be effective when he gets his passing lanes, but as soon as he has to move, it disrupts the timing and rhythm of the offense -- the cornerstones of the NFL game. We will see a few big plays from him and he definitely has a live arm, but I just think his size will always hurt him.


Brandon Weeden

Brandon Weeden

#3 QB
Cleveland Browns

2012 STATS

  • Att167
  • Comp90
  • Yds997
  • TD3
  • Int7
  • Rat60.4

32. Brandon Weeden
Previous:
NR - Rookie

Weeden was not ready to start in Week 1, and he played that way. But I'll tell you what, we're starting to see some glimpses of improvement. I now have a better idea of what the Browns saw in him. He has the arm talent to succeed at this level and can attack the entire field. Coming out of camp, Weeden had a tendency to stare down his receivers, but he looks like he's breaking that habit. I think we'll watch Weeden improve with time, and if his receivers can hold onto the ball, it would be a big help.