It is considered a fait accompli that the Indianapolis Colts will select Stanford Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck with the first pick of the 2012 NFL draft, but what if this honor came down to an open competition between Luck and Baylor Bears quarterback Robert Griffin III (aka RG3)?
Luck has been considered the top quarterback prospect for such a long time now that it might be thought he would win this type of battle hands down, but there are at least ten reasons RG3 could be the No. 1 pick over Luck.
Reason No 1: Better overall statistics in 2011
Let's first examine both quarterbacks' statistics against schools from BCS conferences last season (sans Baylor's game against Kansas).
This is the main reason Heisman Trophy voters chose Griffin III over Luck by a wide margin last year. RG3 crushed Luck in yards per attempt (YPA) and also bested him in completion percentage (72.4 to 71.3) and passer rating (189.5 to 169.7). Griffin III's 37-6 touchdown/interception ratio for the full season was also slightly better than Luck's 37-10 showing in those categories.
Reason No. 2: Better vertical statistics
Part of what gave Griffin III the statistical lead over Luck was a huge advantage on short passes (8.2 YPA vs. 6.8 YPA), but where he really stood out was in the area of vertical passing.
Luck had a slight edge in medium pass YPA, but RG3 bested him in deep, bomb, vertical and stretch vertical YPA -- and did so by significant margins in each category.
Reason No. 3: RG3 had better stats when not throwing to his top target
Some have argued that the reason Griffin III had better downfield numbers is because he was able to throw to Kendall Wright, a speed merchant whom Mel Kiper and Todd McShay both have listed as a late first-rounder in their most recent mock drafts.
The issue in taking this tack is that Griffin III actually had better vertical numbers when throwing to someone other than Wright last year.
RG3's vertical numbers on passes to Wright: 45 targets, 693 yards, 15.4 vertical YPA (VYPA)
RG3's vertical numbers on passes to other players: 70 targets, 1,146 yards, 16.4 VYPA
Luck was the exact opposite in that his vertical totals dropped off dramatically when not throwing to his best vertical target (tight end Coby Fleener):
Luck's vertical numbers on passes to Fleener: 29 targets, 533 yards, 18.4 VYPA
Luck's vertical numbers on passes to other players: 99 vertical targets, 1,167 yards, 11.8 VYPA
Reason No. 4: Nearly equal decision-making skills
The book on Luck is that he is much more advanced in the area of game management, but he and Griffin III were actually nearly equal in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric.
This statistic measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near-turnover such as a dropped interception.
Luck tallied a 2.9 percent BDR last season while RG3 racked up a 3.1 percent BDR. Both of those numbers are well below the 3.5 percent BDR rate that is considered par for the collegiate course.
Reason No. 5: Tougher competition
Last year RG3 faced three teams that ranked in the top 30 in the FBS in passer rating allowed in 2011, and two of those teams (the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma State Cowboys) had exceptionally strong starting cornerback batteries.
By contrast, Luck faced only one team (Oklahoma State) that ranked in the top 30 in passer rating allowed last year.
Reason No. 6: Griffin III has operated a pass-first offense
Both of these quarterbacks are likely to be asked to operate a pass-first offense right out of the gate, but Griffin is the only one who has experience doing this. Check out the pass-run ratios for each of their teams during their three years as a starter:
Griffin III: 37.6/62.4, 50.1/49.9, 57.6/42.4
Luck: 36.8/63.2, 41.5/58.5, 44.6/55.4
Griffin III began his Baylor career by operating a run-first offense, but by the end of his tenure, the Bears had fully switched to a pass-first environment. Luck's Cardinal teams moved more towards the pass but never adopted a pass-first philosophy.
Reason No. 7: Equivalent overall body of work
Luck's proponents might contend that Griffin III was a one-year wonder and that Luck outperformed him over the course of their collegiate careers.
That argument doesn't hold up, though, when looking at their career statistics:
Those are basically equivalent figures across the board and that is before RG3's significant leads in rushing yards (2,257 for RG3, 957 for Luck) and rushing touchdowns (33 for RG3, seven for Luck) are accounted for.
Reason No. 8: Speed at the position
Luck's 4.67 40-yard dash time at the NFL combine was more than respectable, but RG3 was an All-American in track and ran a 4.41 in the 40. To get an idea of just how dominant that level of speed is, consider that Griffin was only five one-hundredths of a second behind the fastest wide receivers in the combine.
Reason No. 9: Vocal leadership
Luck and Griffin III both posted a top score in the Scouts Inc. intangibles rating, but it's worth noting that Griffin III was said to be a vocal leader while Luck was still working on this area. This obviously is a major gray area, but Griffin III shined with evaluators in terms of his poise, smarts and ability to deal with the media. If the leadership aspect at QB extends off the field (which we know it does), his ability to thrive in that arena is going to be huge.
Reason No. 10: Something to prove
One of the keys to Cam Newton's success last year was his incredible motivation level to prove all of the naysayers who thought he wasn't worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick wrong. He worked extra
If Griffin III was to be taken first overall, he would encounter just as many naysayers. Given his mental makeup, it is easy to see him being equally motivated to prove to the world that Indianapolis made the right choice in selecting him.
Even with all of these advantages, the Colts are still almost certain to select Luck. If and when they do, the Washington Redskins will be getting a franchise quarterback who will be even more motivated to prove his doubters wrong.