One of the central themes of the excellent ESPN Films documentary "Catching Hell" was that Cubs fans believed the Steve Bartman interference play was a sign that the 2003 version of the team was just as cursed as all of its predecessors. It wasn't anything special; it was just the same old Cubs.
That same thought may have crossed the minds of Raiders fans this season. Over the past few years, Oakland's front office has frequently stockpiled the roster with talented players, but that talent hasn't led to a stockpile of wins. Instead, those players have consistently failed to perform up to their talent level. The scoreboard has shown some of those same inconsistencies so far this year. Victories over Denver and the Jets were both impressive achievements, but in between was a contest against the Buffalo Bills that saw Oakland get out to a 21-3 halftime lead and then give up 35 second-half points on the way to losing 38-35.
A stretch like that might make Oakland fans wonder if this is the year the Silver and Black finally turn the corner or if this is simply another instance of the same old Raiders, blowing games they have the talent to win.
But after doing detailed game tape and metric analysis, it is clear this team is not the same old Raiders. In fact, it looks like a bona fide playoff contender.
The obvious place to start is to note the play of Darren McFadden. He has always been a dominant player (he was every bit as good as Jamaal Charles on a per-game basis the past three years) but his early MVP-like start is finally getting him the acclaim he deserves as one of the NFL's best running backs.
But space may be opening for McFadden because of the progress quarterback Jason Campbell has made in his second year in coach Hue Jackson's system. Campbell ranks in the top 10 in the league in both Total QBR and in passer rating.
Campbell has also made zero bad decisions (defined as when a quarterback makes a mistake with the ball that leads to a turnover or a near turnover -- such as a dropped interception or fumble recovered by the offense) this season, so it isn't as if his numbers are the result of luck.
He's not just throwing a bunch of safe passes, either -- 31 percent of his throws have been of the vertical variety (vertical being defined as aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield).
That Campbell is gaining 11.8 yards per attempt (YPA) on those vertical throws is impressive enough (only five quarterbacks last year finished the season with a vertical YPA that high), but what makes it even more notable is that it has been largely achieved without the services of Louis Murphy, Jacoby Ford and Kevin Boss. All three have missed significant time because of injury and yet Campbell and the offense have continued to thrive.
One reason Campbell is having success on downfield passes is the superb job the Raiders' blocking wall has done in protecting him. Oakland has allowed only two sacks this season (a total that is tied for the lowest in the NFL) and one of those occurred on a fluke play when McFadden tripped Campbell while trying to make a block.
That Oakland has achieved this total while having a second-year player (Jared Veldheer) at left tackle and a rookie (Stefen Wisniewski) at left guard speaks volumes for how well this group has been coached.
The improvements are not limited to the offensive side of the ball, however.
No team allowed more rushing yards in 2008-10 than the Raiders, but this year they've done a very good job of stopping the run. They are presenting the opposing team with an unfavorable blocking situation 56.8 percent of the time. Only three teams posted a 50 percent or higher total in this metric last year, so Oakland is on an elite pace here.
The Raiders' pass defense is also holding up despite losing the overrated Nnamdi Asomugha to free agency. Oakland ranks tied for seventh in YPA allowed (6.9), 13th in passer rating allowed (85.3) and is one of only six teams with at least 10 sacks.
So what has caused this turnaround? There are two main reasons.
It starts with the Raiders' front office/scouting department. Over the past three years, the team has drafted numerous quality starters (Wisniewski, Veldheer, Ford, Rolando McClain, Matt Shaughnessy) as well as a slew of talented depth players (Denarius Moore, Chimdi Chekwa, DeMarcus Van Dyke, Taiwan Jones, Lamarr Houston). Al Davis has taken a lot of heat in recent years for drafting JaMarcus Russell with the No. 1 pick in the 2007 draft, but very few front offices can match his team's draft success rate over the past three years.
The second reason is Jackson. His hiring looks like a wise move on many levels. It gave Campbell a second season in the same system (something he had not had since high school) and allowed the team to tap into Jackson's energy. He has the passion of a gospel preacher as well as a clear vision of what type of team he is trying to build.
And that, more than anything else, may be why this team is ready to break out. When talented young players are fired up to play for an enthusiastic coach, it can result in a lot of wins. For the 2011 Raiders, that formula could mean as many as 10 wins and a spot in the playoffs.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is currently available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."