The toughest choices that fantasy owners make in a draft are the blackjack picks.
What are blackjack picks? An example might be the best way to explain.
Imagine a 12-round snake draft in which a team selects sixth in the first round. That means the team will have the sixth, 19th, 30th and 43rd picks in the first four rounds.
Now imagine that the team's owner makes safe picks in Rounds 1 and 2. Round 3 rolls around, and the owner starts thinking about a potential risk/reward upside pick for the No. 30 draft slot. The decision is compounded not only because of the potential risk but also because of the possibility the upside choice might last until the No. 43 pick.
That's where the team owner has a blackjacklike quandary. Is the correct choice to say "hit me!" and take the chance that a player will be worth the more valuable earlier pick or say "stay" and play it safe with another prospect?
One could go with gut instinct or pure luck to decide, but the better way to approach this is via the same method that blackjack card sharks use: get as much information as you can to turn the odds as close to your favor as possible.
It is with this thought in mind that Insider is launching a three-part series that uses information found in my fantasy football draft guide to help determine which of those blackjack picks are worth saying "hit me!" for.
Monday's review will take a look at the running back position; on Wednesday there will be an overview of wide receivers; and on Friday we'll concentrate on quarterbacks.
LeGarrette Blount
It might seem like a significant risk to invest a pick in someone who has about only a half-season's worth of track record, but Blount's metrics last year go a long way toward alleviating those fears.
Most notable is Blount's showing in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) category. This metric gauges how productive a running back is when he receives a good-blocking situation (loosely defined as when the blockers do not allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a running play). This is important because running backs almost always gain in the neighborhood of 1 to 2½ yards on plays with poor blocking, so the big production differences occur on good-blocking plays.
It certainly made a difference for Blount, as his 8.8 GBYPA mark last year ranked tied for the third-highest total in the league.
This happened even though the Buccaneers gave their ball carriers the lowest percentage of good-blocking situations of any team in the NFL last season (33.6 percent).
That could very well change in 2011, as Tampa Bay hired former Minnesota Vikings offensive line coach Pat Morris to turn the offensive line around. If Morris can move the Bucs' blocking win rate to even a mediocre level (say 40-42 percent), Blount could have a dominant fantasy season.
Darren McFadden
Want to see some interesting numbers? Check out the following three-year performance comparison between McFadden and Jamaal Charles:
The only major difference between these two is that Charles gained more than 900 more rushing yards in this time frame, but he played in nine more games. Measure their performance on a per-game basis, and McFadden is actually quite close in the areas of yards per game and touchdowns per game. McFadden was also very close to Charles in GBYPA last season (9.0 for Charles, 8.5 for McFadden).
That's not all: In 2010, McFadden had 284 combined rush attempts/pass targets, a total that was only 12 behind Charles.
Despite all these statistical similarities, McFadden is being selected nearly 18 picks later than Charles in ESPN draft rooms. That means a team owner can get potential first-round value out of a late-second-round pick.
Tim Hightower
Redskins coach Mike Shanahan may drive fantasy owners nuts with his incessant running back-by-committee changes, but it has to be noted that Redskins running backs had nine double-digit-point games last season. This means the Shanahan magic still works in that when he does pick a ball carrier, that guy usually posts terrific fantasy football numbers.
Hightower's preseason performances are giving him the inside track for the No. 1 spot on the depth chart, but the real reason to think he is worth investing a higher draft pick on is his GBYPA showing last year. His 9.4 total in that metric was tops in the league among running backs with 100 or more carries. If he can come anywhere close to matching that figure on a 200-250 carry workload, Hightower could post numbers that place him in the top 20 in running back fantasy scoring.
Matt Forte
It's amazing how underrated Forte still is. Last season he ranked 11th in fantasy points for running backs and was only 10 points from a top-six finish in that category, yet he is likely to fall into the second round in most draft rooms (and in some cases, well into that round).
The knock on Forte is that he doesn't get goal-line carries, but he scored six rushing touchdowns last season because he can put the ball in from outside the goal line (four rushing touchdowns of 14 or more yards). He also tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns by a running back (three), and his nine overall touchdowns last year were tied for ninth-most among running backs.
Before writing that last number off as an anomaly, look at Forte's history in this area:
2008: 12 TDs
2009: 4 TDs (an injury-riddled campaign)
2010: 9 TDs
Simply put, the odds say that something in the range of nine or more touchdowns is his norm, not exception. Forte is apt to provide at least second-round and very possibly first-round point production for what might be a third-round draft pick.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is currently available for preorder, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."