The quarterback carousel is about to spin again.
As is the case every offseason, a subset of NFL teams will ponder a change at starting quarterback. Whether through the draft, free agency or by trade, there are options available, though none of them is perfect.
The Vikings must decide whether they're ready to put all their eggs in the J.J. McCarthy basket or stick with Sam Darnold. The Jets have already made up their mind on Aaron Rodgers, but where do they turn? Will the Titans use the No. 1 pick on a quarterback? Is Matthew Stafford really available? And what will the Saints do with Derek Carr given their lack of cap space?
So before the 2025 offseason really kicks off, I'm predicting where the game of quarterback musical chairs will land. I forecast who will start in Week 1 for every team and designated three categories for those predictions: Locked In (players who are virtually certain to start), Decent Bet (players I think will be starting) and Looking for Someone New (teams who I think will opt for a different quarterback). I'm predicting a specific scenario here, so each quarterback can be selected only once.
Let's take a peek at how this offseason could shake out.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
LOOKING FOR SOMEONE NEW
Cleveland Browns
Predicted 2025 starter: Kirk Cousins
The Browns will do this season what they probably should have done last year -- land a starting quarterback not named Deshaun Watson. The most straightforward path is to use the No. 2 pick on Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders. But an alternative is using this season to reload assets by shipping out Myles Garrett for draft capital, signing Cousins to a cheap contract and trading down from No. 2 for more picks.
Cousins, who could be released by the Falcons even though they said Tuesday that they would be open to him returning as a backup, would be available for close to the veterans minimum, like Russell Wilson was last year, if Atlanta moves on. Cousins' 2025 earnings will offset the $27.5 million in guaranteed salary he has coming from the Falcons, so there's little to no incentive to seek market value compensation from his new team.
Cleveland can still use one of its other draft selections on a lottery ticket at quarterback to attempt to set itself up for future success. Cousins might not be at starter level anymore, but he and Kevin Stefanski had success together in Minnesota. Jacoby Brissett could be another veteran option.
Las Vegas Raiders
Predicted 2025 starter: Shedeur Sanders
The fastest way for the Raiders to improve will be hitting on a rookie quarterback. After the Gardner Minshew-Aidan O'Connell experiment failed in 2024, I could see their new front office being eager to take another path. Of course, drafting a quarterback and hitting on one are two entirely different things. But that risk comes with the territory.
New Orleans Saints
Predicted 2025 starter: Justin Fields
The Saints' cap situation is in dire straits -- and lacking Super Bowl upside, too. The move is to get out of the Derek Carr business, even though the Saints said Wednesday that they planned on Carr being their QB in 2025. Should they reverse course and go another direction, it'd most likely be via a post-June 1-designated release. But even that isn't simple.
Carr is owed a fully guaranteed $10 million roster bonus and a non-guaranteed $30 million salary. The former is a sunk cost for the Saints, but the latter can and absolutely should be saved.
Holding Carr's $30 million salary on the cap until June 1, which is what the Saints will have to do even if they designate him as a post-June 1 release, will be a challenge. I've seen some potential paths proposed: They might be able to get there via salary restructures, thanks to a higher-than-expected 2025 cap, or they could ask Carr to reduce his 2025 salary, knowing he will be cut anyway (this might cost something, though).
Assuming New Orleans can avoid paying that $30 million to Carr, it ought to embrace a full rebuild -- which means playing players with future upside. Fields and a rookie could make sense in that context. There's still a possibility Fields can kick his level of play up a notch, and, if not, a midround rookie can get some run. My only hesitation is that even Fields might be too expensive for the Saints, given how rough their salary cap situation is.
New Orleans must stop doling out money and focus on a clean slate for 2027, as it likely will need multiple years to clear out its cap issues.
New York Giants
Predicted 2025 starter: Cam Ward
The Giants are desperate. That's what happens when ownership retains a head coach and general manager on thin ice -- something Giants owner John Mara made clear when he said a turnaround "better not take too long, because I've just about run out of patience." All that does is incentivize GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll to take considerable measures, including surrendering future value, to maximize their chances to win in 2025. In this scenario, they can guarantee landing Ward by trading with the Titans to move up to No. 1.
New York Jets
Predicted 2025 starter: Derek Carr
In this scenario, the Jets pick Carr up off the Saints' discard pile. It's hard to know what the new Jets regime will be looking for after moving on from Aaron Rodgers, but new coach Aaron Glenn saw the Lions win with an unwanted Jared Goff. Carr doesn't have Goff's upside, but he would raise the Jets' floor. And as poorly as recent seasons have gone, New York has the players to launch a quicker turnaround than one might think.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Predicted 2025 starter: Sam Darnold
Keeping Fields is a possibility, but if the Steelers really liked him, why did they continue to play Russell Wilson over him? And though I have some healthy skepticism of how Darnold will fare without Kevin O'Connell and Justin Jefferson, he's arguably the best free agent quarterback available. The Steelers land him because they have the most to offer -- a potentially very good defense, winning history under Mike Tomlin and the lack of a top pick (making them less likely to take a first-round rookie).
Tennessee Titans
Predicted 2025 starter: Jacoby Brissett
In this scenario, Brissett again takes on the role of a bridge quarterback who could mentor a young signal-caller. I think the Titans, who have a new general manager and thus have time on their side, will trade down with the Giants and select a quarterback at the tail end of the first round or on Day 2. But well-respected Brissett starts in Week 1 for Tennessee.
DECENT BET
Indianapolis Colts
Predicted 2025 starter: Anthony Richardson
It makes sense for the Colts to give the Richardson experiment another season, but they initially pulled the plug on him midway through 2024 in favor of Joe Flacco before going back to him a couple of weeks later. Also, general manager Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen might have tenuous job security and could be impatient. In other words, Richardson is most likely Indy's Week 1 starter, but we can't rule out alternatives.
Los Angeles Rams
Predicted 2025 starter: Matthew Stafford
This could look foolish in retrospect, yet I'm skeptical the Stafford trade rumors will result in an actual move. Does 37-year-old Stafford really want to go to a rebuilding team like the Giants at this stage of his career? And would the Rams, fresh off threatening the Eagles in the divisional round, really want to start over at QB? From the outside, I wonder whether this situation can simply be solved with more money.
Minnesota Vikings
Predicted 2025 starter: J.J. McCarthy
Darnold disintegrating at the end of the season surely hampered his chances of returning to Minnesota because the Vikings have a first-round QB waiting in the wings for 2025 and beyond. Plus, it's important to note that the Vikings won 14 games because of their strong defense more than anything else. Darnold ranked 14th in QBR with a great playcaller in O'Connell and arguably the NFL's best wide receiver in Jefferson. Is that worth sidelining McCarthy for another season? I'm skeptical.
Seattle Seahawks
Predicted 2025 starter: Geno Smith
Smith is close to locked in, but I expect the Seahawks to select a quarterback in this year's draft and you never know how things will shake out if that occurs. Still, Smith has been a solid steward of this offense despite a shaky offensive line and struggling run game. His contract is a bargain in 2025, but he turns 35 in October, so it makes sense for the Seahawks to look for a future quarterback.
LOCKED IN
Arizona Cardinals
Predicted 2025 starter: Kyler Murray
Midway through 2023, Murray's long-term future in Arizona was cloudy as he was recovering from a torn ACL. When I did this exercise last year, I listed him as a "decent bet" to start for the Cardinals. So what changed? The Cardinals passed on drafting a QB in 2024, and Murray put together a solid season despite rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. not panning out as many expected. Murray cooled off in the backstretch but still finished with the ninth-best overall QBR (66.5).
Atlanta Falcons
Predicted 2025 starter: Michael Penix Jr.
When the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins and drafted Penix, they limited the upside of either move. Although they could cut Cousins, they'll still be feeling the pain of what ended up being a one-year, $90 million investment. The good news is Penix looked promising in his three starts (five total games) with a 51 QBR. The Penix era really starts now, and he gives Atlanta hope.
Baltimore Ravens
Predicted 2025 starter: Lamar Jackson
What more needs to be said? Jackson has been a first-team All-Pro three times and an MVP twice. He is coming off one of the best statistical seasons of his career, leading the league in QBR (77.3) and becoming the first player in NFL history with 4,000 pass and 800 rush yards. It hasn't resulted in a ring yet, but he has the Ravens on the cusp.
Buffalo Bills
Predicted 2025 starter: Josh Allen
Just like with Jackson, there's not much else to say. The reigning MVP might keep coming up short in the playoffs, but the Bills have a fighting chance for the Super Bowl every season Allen is there. In 2024, he was the first player in NFL history to have at least 25 passing and 10 rushing touchdowns and fewer than 10 interceptions in a season, per ESPN Research.
Carolina Panthers
Predicted 2025 starter: Bryce Young
After a disastrous first two starts in which Young recorded an 8.2 QBR and was quickly benched, the 2023 first-round pick miraculously turned his season (and career) around when he returned as a starter. From Week 8 on, Young's QBR was a 60.7 (18th best). More importantly, head coach Dave Canales committed to Young as the team's starter in 2025, meaning the Panthers can make improvements elsewhere on the roster.
Chicago Bears
Predicted 2025 starter: Caleb Williams
After a disappointing rookie campaign in which he played worse than Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix, Williams has a potential massive advantage coming in: new head coach Ben Johnson. The former Lions offensive coordinator worked wonders with Goff and should help Williams begin to live up to the potential that made him the No. 1 pick.
Cincinnati Bengals
Predicted 2025 starter: Joe Burrow
Burrow is coming off his best NFL season ... yet didn't make the playoffs. He was, in my view, only narrowly behind Allen and Jackson for MVP despite playing behind an offensive line that ranked last in pass block win rate (though he did have great receivers in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins). The question going forward for Cincinnati is how everyone besides Burrow will play.
Dallas Cowboys
Predicted 2025 starter: Dak Prescott
Coming off a disappointing 2024, it's easy to look past Dallas and Prescott heading into the 2025 season. But remember Prescott's 73.4 QBR in 2023 was less than .1 behind leader Brock Purdy. Now under Brian Schottenheimer's coaching, can Dallas regain its footing? That remains to be seen, but Prescott is good enough that the Cowboys are always a threat.
Denver Broncos
Predicted 2025 starter: Bo Nix
Nix exceeded expectations as a rookie, helping the Broncos return to the playoffs for the first time since 2015. The rookie added 20 total EPA on scrambles, which was more than Baker Mayfield and Jackson. But Nix also had some advantages, playing behind the No. 1-ranked offensive line in pass block win rate and Denver having one of the NFL's best defenses. It was a fine start, yet the Broncos will need more from Nix to contend in future seasons when their defense isn't as exceptional.
Detroit Lions
Predicted 2025 starter: Jared Goff
With Goff at the helm, the Detroit offense was fiercely efficient in 2024, with 0.17 and 0.26 EPAs per play and per dropback in the regular season, respectively. Both numbers ranked second in the league. But how will Goff and the Lions fare with new offensive coordinator John Morton?
Green Bay Packers
Predicted 2025 starter: Jordan Love
Love had a quietly efficient 2024, finishing fifth in QBR. One of the reasons it was so quiet is that Green Bay didn't overly rely on him with its run-heavy offense, and Love's total production numbers weren't gaudy as a result (he also missed a couple of games early in the season). Regardless, the Packers have their man, and I think the ceiling is higher for Matt LaFleur's offense in 2025.
Houston Texans
Predicted 2025 starter: C.J. Stroud
Which season represented the real Stroud? I think most folks, me included, are inclined to believe that his disappointing 2024 sophomore season was an aberration compared with his stellar rookie campaign. But we'll find out. With Bobby Slowik out as offensive coordinator and former Rams assistant Nick Caley in, Houston is hoping Stroud will return to his previous level. There's a lot of room for its offense to improve after ranking 24th in offensive EPA per play last season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Predicted 2025 starter: Trevor Lawrence
Four seasons into his NFL career, Lawrence has never finished higher than 16th in QBR. It's a far cry from what was expected of him as an elite prospect. But he's not going anywhere after his extension last summer. With porous offensive lines, a lack of playmakers and arguably lackluster offensive coaching, Lawrence has often dealt with unfavorable circumstances. There's a breakout potentially coming this season with new head coach Liam Coen.
Kansas City Chiefs
Predicted 2025 starter: Patrick Mahomes
The 2024 season was a down season for Mahomes, and I'm not just saying that because of his poor Super Bowl performance. There were some extenuating circumstances, such as the tough tackle situation or the subpar set of playmakers alongside him. But you would still expect Mahomes to finish higher than eighth in QBR (67.6). The Chiefs ranked first in third-down success rate on dropbacks, but they have to find more explosive plays for Mahomes. They ranked 31st in rate of plays that went for 40-plus yards.
Los Angeles Chargers
Predicted 2025 starter: Justin Herbert
After opening the season with a run-heavy approach, the Chargers shifted gears to rely more on Herbert's arm after their Week 5 bye. As they should since Herbert is the offense's strength. It was a quite encouraging start for him in the first season with Jim Harbaugh, though he hasn't caught up to top-tier quarterbacks such as Mahomes, Allen, Jackson and Burrow.
Miami Dolphins
Predicted 2025 starter: Tua Tagovailoa
Tagovailoa is less than a year removed from signing a four-year, $212 million extension with the Dolphins, which includes $50 million fully guaranteed this season. But after a disappointing season with only 11 games played due to another concussion, the Dolphins might draft a quarterback at some point, if only to improve their backup situation.
New England Patriots
Predicted 2025 starter: Drake Maye
There's hope in New England again thanks to Maye. Despite poor circumstances -- such as a lack of receivers and the second-worst offensive line in pass block win rate -- Maye acquitted himself well as a rookie. With tons of cap space and a new head coach, we'll find out in 2025 if Maye can translate that promise into real production.
Philadelphia Eagles
Predicted 2025 starter: Jalen Hurts
Hurts' 2024 wasn't always perfect (10th in QBR, including the postseason), but he absolutely turned it on when it mattered most in the playoffs. The result was a Lombardi Trophy and a Super Bowl MVP for Hurts. He brings tons to the table with his legs, including his ability to convert third- and fourth-and-1s via the "tush push." And while the run-heavy Eagles didn't overly rely on Hurts' arm this season, he had the best completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, among qualifying quarterbacks. A low 1.1% interception rate helped, too.
San Francisco 49ers
Predicted 2025 starter: Brock Purdy
While the debate over Purdy's true talent level will rage forever, there is no question the combination of him and Kyle Shanahan is an excellent fit that produces efficient results. Sure, 2024 was a down season for San Francisco, but Purdy still finished seventh in QBR (after finishing first in 2023). This offense could easily ascend back to a top-three level again with him at signal-caller.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Predicted 2025 starter: Baker Mayfield
I'll admit to being skeptical that Mayfield would work out with Tampa Bay. But after two fairly successful seasons under two different offensive coordinators, he has solidified his position as a starter. I ranked him 10th-best out of all MVP candidates from the 2024 season. But Mayfield will again have to deal with a new offensive coordinator in Josh Grizzard. Can he dominate in another system? Only time will tell.
Washington Commanders
Predicted 2025 starter: Jayden Daniels
The Commanders are in the enviable position of having a clear-cut franchise quarterback in just the second year of his rookie contract. Daniels ranked fourth in QBR in the regular season and led all quarterbacks in the playoffs. There are no questions about the Commanders' quarterback situation, but what will the team do with all the cap space it has (fourth-most, per Roster Management System) before Daniels becomes expensive?