Just because the Super Bowl is nine days away doesn't mean you should forget about everything else that's going on in the NFL.
Free agency is right around the corner -- the new league year begins March 12 -- and that means teams and players are already confronting some big-money decisions that will shape this offseason. Whether it's free agent deals like the one Saquon Barkley signed with the Eagles last year or huge contract extensions like we saw for Justin Jefferson in June, teams are planning their offseasons around major contract spends.
So, we consulted with a half-dozen executives and cap experts around the league and tried to predict what some of these contracts will look like when they do come in. We picked five pending free agents and five players who are still under contract but are due for extensions. Here's our best crack at projecting terms for 10 new deals.
Jump to:
Baun | Chase | Darnold | Hamilton | Higgins
Parsons | Purdy | Smith | Stingley | Wilson
Five top free agents
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Age: 27 | 2024 stats: 4,319 passing yards, 35 TD throws, 12 INTs
Last contract: One year, $10 million, $8.75 million guaranteed
The Vikings have talked about bringing Darnold back, even with 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings to take over as the long-term starter at some point. (McCarthy first has to recover from his season-ending knee injury.) They could franchise-tag him (roughly $40 million) with the intent of keeping him or possibly trading him, but odds are the market is going to offer Darnold more than Minnesota can afford. The Raiders, Giants, Jets, Steelers, Browns, Titans and Saints are among the teams that either will or could find themselves looking for a new quarterback this offseason.
The Vikings can pay receiver Justin Jefferson $35 million per year in part because it's anticipating operating on McCarthy's rookie deal. And in the end, they probably end up letting Darnold hit the market, where he should be able to command a deal in line with the three-year, $100 million deal that Baker Mayfield got from the Buccaneers a year ago -- though it would be adjusted upward based on inflation and market demand.
Prediction: Three years, $120 million, $75 million guaranteed -- which would tie for 15th among quarterbacks in average annual value.
Russell Wilson, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age: 36 | 2024 stats: 2,482 passing yards, 16 TD throws, 5 INTs
Last contract: One year, $1.2 million, fully guaranteed
Pittsburgh has two free agent quarterbacks -- Wilson and Justin Fields, who started the first six games of the season while Wilson recovered from a calf injury. The Steelers have a tough decision to make. Wilson started out hot once he got the job but fizzled toward the end of the season. After averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and posting a 59.3 QBR over Weeks 7-14, Wilson dipped to 6.4 yards per attempt and a 38.4 QBR over his final five starts, including the playoffs. Pittsburgh lost all five of those games.
The coaching staff liked the progress Fields was making while he was the starter, but they still benched him for Wilson and didn't use him a ton late in the season. Could there be an outside market for Wilson? Possibly, but the Steelers were the only interested team one year ago, and he didn't do a ton to improve his marketability.
This isn't like last year, either, when the money he made from the Steelers was offset against the guaranteed money the Broncos were still paying him. The Broncos don't owe him any more, so Wilson won't be available for a minimum salary as he was last season. The Giants took a cursory look at him before he went to Pittsburgh last year, and his old coach Pete Carroll just got the head coach job in Las Vegas, so there are some potentially intriguing options for Wilson if the Steelers don't bring him back.
But let's say Pittsburgh does bring him back on a short-term deal while it continues to look for a more sustainable long-term solution.
Prediction: Two years, $50 million, $35 million guaranteed -- which would tie for 19th among quarterbacks in average annual value.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Age: 26 | 2024 stats: 73 catches, 911 yards, 10 TDs
Last contract: One year, $21.8 million (franchise tag)
The Bengals franchised Higgins in 2024 for $21.816 million, which means to do so again in 2025 would cost them $26.179 million. Given their history with the franchise tag -- and with teammate Ja'Marr Chase due for a pricey long-term extension -- it feels unlikely that the Bengals would use the tag on Higgins for a second time. Assuming the Bengals do plan to sign Chase and let Higgins go, Higgins should be the top target for any team looking for a No. 1 wide receiver in free agency this offseason. And with multiple teams likely bidding, his market could go through the roof.
There are some past injury concerns -- Higgins has missed five games each of the past two years -- that could keep the number under the very top end of the market, but he should do better than the guys who got extensions with years left on their deals last offseason. Some of the people I spoke to believe he could get a little more per year than Jaylen Waddle's $28.25 million average and a little more guaranteed than DeVonta Smith's $69.998 million.
It's also possible Higgins could benefit from a multiple-team bidding war and drive that number higher. The Patriots, Bills, Commanders, Ravens, Chiefs, Chargers and Panthers are just a few of the teams that could be looking to sign a high-end wide receiver this offseason.
Prediction: Four years, $114 million, $70 million guaranteed -- which would be seventh among receivers in average annual value.
Stephen A. Smith reacts to Micah Parsons saying he's "devastated" the Cowboys let go of Mike McCarthy.
Trey Smith, G, Kansas City Chiefs
Age: 25 | 2024 stats: 17 starts, 93.9% pass block win rate
Last contract: Four years, $3.6 million, $902,676 guaranteed
Smith's rookie deal is up, and he was a sixth-round pick, so the Chiefs don't hold a fifth-year option on him. Chiefs center Creed Humphrey -- his 2021 draftmate -- got his big extension last offseason, landing a four-year deal worth $72 million. Smith is now a priority this offseason, as Kansas City tries to keep its elite interior offensive line group together. Smith's 95.6% pass block win rate since entering the NFL in 2021 ranks second at guard behind only Joe Thuney, who traditionally plays Kansas City's other guard spot. (He was moved to tackle this season.)
The offensive line franchise tag number is tied to top tackle pay, as it doesn't differentiate between tackles, guards and centers. So it will likely cost the Chiefs more than $25 million to franchise Smith for 2025.
The Eagles' Landon Dickerson is at the top of the guard market, earning $21 million per year. Based on what I'm hearing, it shouldn't be a problem for the Chiefs to give Smith a deal that at least matches that in terms of annual value and tops the $63 million in guarantees that Robert Hunt got from the Panthers.
Prediction: Five years, $105 million, $65 million guaranteed -- which would tie for first among guards in average annual value.
Zack Baun, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
Age: 28 | 2024 stats: 151 tackles, 11 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT
Last contract: One year, $3.5 million, fully guaranteed
The Eagles landed Baun on a one-year, $3.5 million contract last offseason, and he turned into one of the top bargains in the league. He had a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber regular season, helping fuel a defensive turnaround that landed Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. He'll obviously be looking for much more on the open market, and the Eagles may not be able to keep him around. Per Roster Management System, Philadelphia has $7.9 million in cap space for 2025 and multiple free agents to consider.
Getting to $15 million per year would put Baun in the top five at his position, behind only Roquan Smith, Tremaine Edmunds and Fred Warner.
Prediction: Four years, $60 million, $35 million guaranteed -- which would be fourth among off-ball linebackers in average annual value.
Five extension candidates
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Age: 25 | 2024 stats: 3,864 passing yards, 20 TD throws, 12 INTs
Remaining contract: One year, $5.2 million
Purdy's original salary for 2025 was a little over $1 million as part of the four-year rookie contract he signed after being the last pick of the 2022 draft. But proven performance escalators based on how much and how well he has played since becoming the 49ers' starter in 2023 have inflated it to a little over $5 million. (The official actual amount has yet to be determined and will be once the 2025 salary cap is set.)
The 49ers do not hold a fifth-year option on Purdy because he was not a first-round pick. So if he played out the 2025 season, he'd be either an unrestricted free agent or (much more likely) a franchise tag recipient in 2026. Purdy has led the 49ers to two NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl appearance as the top bargain of the past three seasons in the entire league. Surely both sides agree that the time has come for a significant raise.
The threat of the franchise tag certainly gives the 49ers some leverage, and if Purdy is not determined to play hardball and max out his contract in the upper-$50-million-per-year range, there's a deal to be made here. Some of the people I talked to expect that the framework would likely build out from the contract Daniel Jones signed with the Giants two years ago (four years, $160 million with $81 million guaranteed). But it would obviously be adjusted upward for inflation and based on superior performance.
Prediction: Four years, $196 million, $112 million guaranteed -- which would be 10th among quarterbacks in average annual value.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Age: 24 | 2024 stats: 127 catches, 1,708 yards, 17 TDs
Remaining contract: One year, $21.8 million
Chase is scheduled to play 2025 on the fifth-year option from his 2021 rookie contract, but he was clearly unhappy to not get an extension last offseason. He "held in" throughout Bengals training camp, and he's likely willing to push even harder this time around. The top of the wide receiver market right now is Chase's college teammate and friend Justin Jefferson, who's making $35 million per year on the deal he signed with the Vikings last offseason. Chase posted enormous numbers in 2024, strengthening his case to surpass Jefferson's contract.
The Bengals have a long-held policy of refusing to guarantee any money beyond the signing bonus in long-term veteran contracts (other than Joe Burrow's deal), and if Chase demands they make an exception for him, this could drag out for a while. Cincinnati is likely to offer a massive signing bonus to try to convince Chase to sign while still holding to its policy. If he goes for it, that likely means he'd top the $38 million signing bonus CeeDee Lamb got from the Cowboys prior to the 2024 season.
It's just tough to imagine a structure in which the Bengals are OK with Chase getting the $100-million-plus guaranteed that Lamb and Jefferson got. For the sake of a prediction, though, let's say they blow Lamb's signing bonus out of the water with a number that "virtually" guarantees at least the first two years of the extension.
Prediction: Five years, $180 million, $70 million guaranteed -- which would reset the receiver market in average annual value.
Micah Parsons, Edge, Dallas Cowboys
Age: 25 | 2024 stats: 12 sacks, 55 pressures, 43 tackles
Remaining contract: One year, $24 million
As of now, Parsons is scheduled to play out 2025 on the fifth-year option from his rookie contract. His performance to date gives him a case to be the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL. At this point, that honor belongs to the 49ers' Nick Bosa, whose deal averages $34 million per year. However, players such as the Browns' Myles Garrett, the Raiders' Maxx Crosby and the Steelers' T.J. Watt are in line for potential extensions this offseason, too.
We know the Cowboys' history of waiting until the last minute to get these big deals done, and if they wait again, any or all of those three could sail past Bosa's number in the meantime. So I'll predict a deal here that imagines the top of this market moving up a few million annually before Parsons signs and still places him at the top of it once he does. After all, he has a 30.2% pass rush win rate over four seasons, by far No. 1 in the league over that time.
Parsons could tear up the final year of his contract and get a record-breaking new deal.
Prediction: Five years, $180 million, $125 million guaranteed -- which would reset the edge rusher market in average annual value.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, Houston Texans
Age: 23 | 2024 stats: 54 tackles, 5 INTs, 11 pass breakups
Remaining contract: One year, $5.3 million plus 2026 fifth-year option
Pat Surtain II's four-year, $96 million deal with the Broncos is likely Stingley's target as the Texans are expected to make his extension a top offseason priority. They'll surely pick up the fifth-year option for 2026, which should cost around $17 million. But the strong likelihood is that they tear up the 2025 and 2026 years and replace them with a brand-new deal that pays Stingley like the top corner he has become.
Stingley has 11 career interceptions over three years, and he allowed 7.6 fewer receptions than expectation in 2024, per NFL Next Gen Stats (second among players with 400-plus coverage snaps). People I've talked to think Stingley could top Surtain's $24 million annual average and his $77.5 million in guarantees.
Prediction: Four years, $104 million, $80 million guaranteed -- which would reset the cornerback market in average annual value.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Baltimore Ravens
Age: 23 | 2024 stats: 107 tackles, 1 INT, six pass breakups
Remaining contract: One year, $2.9 million plus 2026 fifth-year option
As a first-round pick in 2022, Hamilton has one year left on his rookie contract -- but the Ravens do hold a fifth-year option for 2026. That's likely to come in around $19 million, and Baltimore is sure to pick it up for a player who has been the best and most versatile on its defense. The question is whether the two sides can find common ground on an extension this offseason or whether that has to wait until next year.
If the Ravens wanted to play hardball, they could afford to wait. They'd have the ability to franchise Hamilton in 2027, and the franchise number for safeties is generally among the lowest in the league. But it's not like Baltimore to do that with a franchise cornerstone player like Hamilton, so I would expect the Ravens to discuss a new deal this offseason.
Tampa Bay's Antoine Winfield Jr. did a favor for the rest of the safety market with his extension last offseason, pushing the top end to around $21 million per year. Hamilton can and should expect to top Winfield whether his deal gets done this offseason or next.
Prediction: Four years, $88 million, $50 million guaranteed -- which would reset the safety market in average annual value.