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senior NFL national reporter- Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.
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ESPN- Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.
The divisional round of the NFL playoffs kicked off Saturday afternoon with the Chiefs topping the Texans 23-14 to advance to the AFC Championship Game. Then the Commanders punched their ticket to the NFC Championship Game on Saturday night, beating the Lions 45-31. Washington will play the Eagles, who won 28-22 against the Rams on Sunday afternoon. And the Bills outlasted the Ravens in the final divisional game, winning 27-25. They move on and will meet Kansas City next weekend.
What are the lessons from each divisional round matchup, and what's next for these teams? We asked NFL analyst Ben Solak and national insider Dan Graziano to help size up each game and look forward from all angles. For Texans-Chiefs, Commanders-Lions, Rams-Eagles and Ravens-Bills, Ben answered one big remaining question and Dan judged the legitimacy of one potential overreaction.
Let's jump in, making sense of Lamar Jackson's playoff struggles, the Eagles' passing game, the Commanders' wild upset of the Lions and Travis Kelce's big performance for the Chiefs.
Jump to a matchup:
Texans-Chiefs | Commanders-Lions
Rams-Eagles | Ravens-Bills
Bills 27, Ravens 25
Overreaction? "Playoff Lamar" is keeping the Ravens from getting where they want to go.
Not an overreaction, and I hate to say it because I've been a huge Lamar Jackson fan since he was still at Louisville. It would be amazing for the NFL if he were to add a Super Bowl title to his two (and likely three) MVP trophies. But we can't overlook the reality of Jackson's playoff flops, and we have to count Sunday's loss in Buffalo among them.
Did the Baltimore defense get pushed around up front by the Buffalo offense in the first half? Sure. Did the Bills limit Derrick Henry -- who shredded them in Week 4 -- and keep him from breaking the game open in the first half again? Absolutely. Did Mark Andrews drop a 2-point conversion that would have tied the game inside two minutes? He did (and committed a fourth-quarter turnover). There are plenty of reasons other than Jackson that the Ravens aren't going to the AFC Championship Game. But this game was still very much in the balance when he overthrew Rashod Bateman on a corner route for an easy Taylor Rapp interception in the first quarter. And it was still tied 7-7 when he got reckless with the ball and fumbled it away in the second quarter.
Those are the types of mistakes Jackson and the Ravens didn't make in the regular season. He threw four interceptions all season, and a review of the tape helps make a case that literally none of them was his fault. Baltimore as a team turned the ball over just 11 times in 17 regular-season games. Only the Bills (8) and Chargers (9) had fewer giveaways. So to show up in a game like this -- on the road and against a 13-4 team, with an extremely small margin for error -- and just give the ball away twice in the first half ... well, it's not the kind of thing that helps knock down narratives.
Sunday's loss dooms Jackson to yet another offseason of questions about whether he can ever get it done in the biggest games and why he always seems to make these inexplicable mistakes in the moments when they absolutely cannot happen. Over his past three postseason appearances, Jackson has gone 3-0 with four TD passes and one interception in the opening game. But he is now 0-3 in the Ravens' following game, throwing three TD passes and three interceptions in those bigger matchups. Overall, he is 3-5 in the playoffs over his career.
Now, he's only 28 years old, and he's as brilliantly talented as any player we've ever seen. And he has the time and ability to overcome the narratives before his career is over. But the teams he has had the past couple of years have been stacked, and they have offered him perhaps the best chances he'll ever have to cash in all that ability with a championship. It's not OK to squander those kinds of opportunities in a league that makes no promises about ever getting them again. -- Graziano
The lingering question: Is the Bills' run game the missing piece to a postseason victory over the Chiefs?
In the regular season, the best rush defense by success rate belonged to the Broncos (successful rushes allowed 33.6% of the time). In the wild-card round, the Bills ran all over that vaunted run defense with a 50% success rate -- the best against the Broncos all season -- and totaled 210 yards on 44 carries.
In the regular season, the second-best rush defense by success rate belonged to the Ravens (35.8%). In the divisional round, the Bills ran all over that vaunted defense, too, with a 55.6% success rate -- the best against the Ravens all season. Buffalo had 36 carries for 147 yards and three scores.
Buffalo's running game is powering its playoff push. Yes, Josh Allen is a huge part of that, and the fact that he can, at any time, go into superhero mode through the air makes those run defenses a little softer. But the improvement along the Bills' offensive line, the skill of running back James Cook and the designed running game with Allen have created a clock-chewing, stick-moving beast in Buffalo.
Can this be the difference against the Chiefs this time? Kansas City lacks an explosive passing offense this season. If the Bills can generate a lead and shorten the game in the second half by stringing together long drives with a dominant running game, they can limit Patrick Mahomes' chances with the football and protect that lead all the way to a victory. The formula is there. -- Solak
What's next: The Bills will play on the road against the Chiefs next Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS) in the AFC Championship Game. Buffalo beat Kansas City 30-21 in November, handing the Chiefs their only loss this season with their starters playing.
Eagles 28, Rams 22
Overreaction? The Eagles need a lot more from their passing game to beat Washington.
Not an overreaction! Yes, I watched the game. I know the second half was played in a blizzard and no one could do much. I'm not holding the Eagles' mere 65 passing yards -- 128 total with 63 sack yards -- against them, per se. But they weren't getting much through the air early in the game when the weather was less intense, and the Rams threw the ball fine in the fourth quarter. Plus, the Eagles' passing game has been middle of the pack all season. The issue has gotten plenty of attention -- receiver A.J. Brown was seen reading on the sideline and the Brown/Jalen Hurts/Brandon Graham drama in December.
Even so, the Eagles have won 16 of 19 games this season. How bad can they be in any aspect? We're talking about champagne problems here. But the Eagles probably will need to win a shootout next week against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, who scored 36 points against them in a Week 16 victory. I'm not sure how confident we can be in the Eagles' ability to do that.
The Eagles have an incredible opportunity. They were one of three NFC teams this season to win 14 or more games, and they have the chance to get to the Super Bowl without having to face either of the other two. They should run wild against the Commanders' defense, as well. Running back Saquon Barkley -- whose perfect marriage with the Philadelphia offensive line is making a case for him as one of the greatest free agent signings -- ran for 150 yards and two touchdowns in that Week 16 loss.
Hurts left that Week 16 game due to a concussion, so maybe the result would have been different -- and maybe it will be this time. But unless the Eagles get the same kind of weather they got in Philadelphia on Sunday, there's a chance they will have to throw to keep up with the unflappable Daniels. At some point, this team has to lean on its quarterback if it wants to get to the Super Bowl. Can Hurts and his receivers deliver if the NFC Championship Game ends up in their hands? -- Graziano
The lingering question: How much longer will Matthew Stafford play?
Stafford is 36 years old. But he is also extremely tough. He's still ridiculously talented. He's capable of making clutch throws. He's strong in the pocket. And he can still run the Sean McVay offense and captain a playoff-caliber offense.
But yes, he's also 36 years old, and he will be 37 when the 2025 season begins. The Rams have been aware of Stafford's age and questionable health for the past few seasons. In 2021, he had a back injury. He also had elbow surgery that offseason, and the nagging elbow pain led to questions at the beginning of the 2022 season. In the 2023 draft, the Rams selected Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett in the fourth round, and they signed Jimmy Garoppolo this past offseason as a high-priced backup. As a pocket passer ages, it is less certain he'll bounce back from the next hit -- just as Stafford did after a shot in the ribs early in the Rams' loss to the Eagles.
Stafford has two years left on his deal and is unquestionably the Rams' starting quarterback in 2025. But Los Angeles needs a QB of the future in place and will spend some time this offseason looking at short-term bridges (Sam Darnold? Daniel Jones?) and the long-term dart throws in the draft. -- Solak
What's next: The Eagles will have a home game against the Commanders next Sunday at 3 p.m. ET (Fox) in the NFC Championship Game. Philadelphia played Washington twice this season; it won 26-18 in November but then lost 36-33 in December.
Commanders 45, Lions 31
Overreaction? The Lions have already blown their best shot at a Super Bowl.
Not an overreaction. This is a team that was up 17 points in the NFC Championship Game on the road against the 49ers a year ago and blew that lead. Then they rolled into Saturday night as the No. 1 seed in the conference and heavy favorites over the visiting Commanders, and they turned the ball over five times and couldn't stop Jayden Daniels and the Washington offense. They committed bad penalty after bad penalty. They tried trick plays that didn't work. It was a disaster of an evening for a team that was the best in the NFC all season, even as injuries ravaged its defense.
The story of the 2024 Lions could end up being that all those injuries wrecked a special season. It could be that Daniels is just so much better than any of us ever thought he would be and that this is the game that launches a legendary QB career and a new golden football era in Washington. The Lions could even come back stronger next season and win it all. Any and all of those things are possible. And I don't want to take anything away from this Commanders team, which is one of the great stories I've seen in my football-reporting career. But this season's Lions were supposed to be an unstoppable force. And they did a lot Saturday to stop themselves.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn could get head coach jobs and leave Dan Campbell needing to refresh a coaching staff. That staff has been remarkably stable given the team's success in recent years. I believe in Campbell and GM Brad Holmes, and I expect this roster to be good enough moving forward that the Lions will remain competitive. The problem is, it's really tough to have a season like the one the Lions just had, and the fact that they didn't cash it in could very well haunt them for years to come. -- Graziano
The lingering question: Is Daniels the best rookie quarterback ever?
By EPA per dropback -- and I'm including postseason numbers here -- Daniel is having the fifth-best rookie quarterback season. By success rate, it's third. Players above him include Robert Griffin, Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott -- guys who had truly incredible rookie years. But none of those players had multiple postseason wins on the road. None of them knocked off the No. 1 seed. Daniels became only the fourth quarterback in NFL history to win multiple playoff games in his rookie season, joining Brock Purdy, Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco. No rookie QB has ever won three.
Of course, QB wins is a bad stat. Daniels played great ball in both wins, first over the Buccaneers in the wild-card round and then over the Lions on Saturday. But if not for one timely takeaway in Tampa Bay or five huge takeaways in Detroit, the result of those games might have been different. Far more important than whether Daniels wins in the playoffs is whether he seems like he belongs in the playoffs -- and he unequivocally does. In hostile environments and running a largely hurry-up no-huddle offense, he has avoided turnovers, been clutch on fourth down and made spectacular plays with both his arm and his legs.
The better news is that Daniels doesn't need to be the best rookie quarterback ever -- because he is good enough to win a Super Bowl. This season, it's very possible; the Commanders are only two games away. But it is also next season, and the season after that, and for as long as he stays healthy. He's bringing competitiveness at the highest level, and if the Commanders build around him, they'll be the ones hosting the playoff games next year. -- Solak
What's next: The Commanders will play on the road against the Eagles next Sunday at 3 p.m. ET (Fox) in the NFC Championship Game.
Chiefs 23, Texans 14
Overreaction? None of these other games matters; the Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl again.
It's not an overreaction. Look, the Bills will be better than the Texans. But you could make the case that the Bills don't have edge rushers as good as Houston's unit, and the Chiefs' biggest offensive weakness is their tackle play. The Chiefs managed to weather the Danielle Hunter/Will Anderson Jr. storm and advance to the next round, where they will play in the AFC Championship Game for the inconceivable seventh year in a row (and at home for the sixth time in those seven years).
Buffalo is likely to be more physically exhausted as a result of the difficulty of its divisional round matchup -- and the Chiefs will have an extra day of rest. Also consider that this was the Chiefs' rust game. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and most of the Chiefs' superstar regulars hadn't played since Christmas, and the offense looked like it was getting back into the rhythm of live game action during the first half. That was the Texans' chance to jump on them and take advantage of the rust, and all Houston could manage was three field goal attempts, one of which it missed.
You can be sick of the Chiefs. You can be bored with the Chiefs. You can point out any number of reasons they're not as good as the team they'll play next week. But what you can't dispute is that they've played 17 games this season that they were actually trying to win, and they've won 16 of them. Buffalo (which delivered the Chiefs' one loss during that stretch) will go into Kansas City next weekend burdened with the ghosts and memories of painful playoff losses to Mahomes & Co. as recently as last season. It's going to be a lot to overcome.
And while the Eagles can make a strong case to beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, it's tough to feel good about that. Thanos claimed to be inevitable but was not. Mahomes has made no such claim; but watch him throw a touchdown pass to Kelce while being sacked and falling forward at a 45-degree angle and tell me whether he even has to say it. -- Graziano
The lingering question: Can Kelce do this two more times?
While it might feel like Kelce always does this in January, Saturday's performance was perhaps his best postseason leveling up we've ever seen. Kelce had 62 yards after the catch (his most YAC in a game this season), making seven receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown. He had 30 YAC over expectation, the most in any game of his past two seasons, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The 35-year-old looked spry and fresh, like the clock was turned back a few years. (In reality, it might have been the two weeks off from playing football that put some pep back into Kelce's step.)
Kelce ended the day with a whopping 66% of Mahomes' 177 passing yards on a cool 32% target rate. The passing offense ran through him as the Chiefs avoided the elite cornerback duo of Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, instead picking on slot cornerback Myles Bryant and linebackers Henry To'oTo'o and Azeez Al-Shaair. It was a great game plan, and it was conditional on having an elite pass-catching tight end.
So, Kelce dominated in the playoffs. Of course he did. But this was just the eighth 100-plus-yard game for a tight end at age 35 or older. What he just did was exceptional, and it's unreasonable to expect him to deliver a 100-yard performance in the AFC Championship Game and beyond.
Can wide receiver Hollywood Brown pull down a deep target next weekend (like the one he dropped Saturday)? Can wideout DeAndre Hopkins show up with a couple of those contested catches over the middle? Or will the Chiefs continue to run their passing offense through a tight end who doesn't move like he once did? And would anyone be able to stop Kelce and Mahomes anyway? -- Solak
What's next: The Chiefs will play at home against the Bills next Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS) in the AFC Championship Game.