A league that promotes parity is loving the 2024 season.
Each team has at least seven games in the books entering Week 9, and 19 teams have at least four wins. Six of those teams -- the Denver Broncos (5-3), Los Angeles Chargers (4-3), Atlanta Falcons (5-3), Chicago Bears (4-3), Minnesota Vikings (5-2) and Washington Commanders (6-2) -- missed the postseason a year ago.
Three out of eight division leaders hold just a half-game lead. At almost the halfway point of the season, 67 games have been decided by seven points or fewer, the most ever at this point in a season.
All right, enough with the numbers. There's plenty of football to play, which means plenty of bad football, too. Several teams are putting out ugly product on Sundays.
Save a few clear-cut favorites, surprises are coming in several divisions. And yet, early candidates for Super Bowl LIX at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on Feb. 9 are in.
ESPN marked the occasion by talking to a number of NFL executives, attempting to gauge where insiders believe the division races are headed, as well as the two teams that will still be playing football in February
Jump to a division race:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West | SBLIX
Who's catching Buffalo in the AFC East?
No one we polled expects the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets or New England Patriots to outdistance the 6-2 Buffalo Bills.
"They are a complete team," an AFC executive said. "Defense is really disciplined, playmakers on offense have stepped up and Josh Allen is playing really well. They might not be the favorite in the AFC, but they should be right there in the thick of it in January. Will the lack of a proven No. 1 hurt them in January? I'm not sure Amari Cooper is that at this stage of his career."
That doesn't mean a fringe team can't make a playoff run. Miami has the best chance, despite obvious holes. The logic: Offense has too much talent.
"Problem for me is the defensive personnel -- their best player right now might be a 38-year-old [Calais Campbell], which is crazy to think about," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "[Jalen] Ramsey is getting older and Jevon Holland has been banged up. The pass rush never came together due to injury. Just not good enough right now."
In Command of the NFC East?
The last time Washington won the division with a winning record was 2015. The Commanders currently lead by a half-game, and even staying in contention over the next two months would be a serious testament to Dan Quinn's work in Year 1.
"That's not a great roster, particularly on defense, and they are pulling out wins impressively," an NFL personnel man said. "Quinn is a great motivator with a ton of energy and is getting them to play above their talent level. I know Jayden [Daniels] has been great, but what Quinn is doing is really good."
Added a high-ranking personnel evaluator: "I know it was easy to bag on [playcaller] Kliff Kingsbury, but he's really good at creating space for his playmakers and getting easy completions for mobile quarterbacks who can use their legs on later downs."
Despite those positives, not many are ready to crown Washington the NFC East champion, due to the talent in Philly.
"I forecasted Saquon [Barkley's] impact as soon as they signed him, and he's been better than advertised," an NFC scout said. "Jalen Hurts is throwing the ball better. And their young talent is coming through on defense. The Eagles are finally playing to Vic's [Fangio] scheme, filling zones, after a slow start. It's not a pressure-heavy defense, so you have to be disciplined."
Do the Chiefs have company in the AFC West?
The Chiefs continue to find ways to win, but their division could have as many as three playoff teams.
Most evaluators polled predict that two will make it, Kansas City and either the Chargers or Broncos.
They are split on that second team, with Denver getting the slight edge.
"The defense is nasty," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "They get after quarterbacks and can play man on the back end with really good corner play. Bo Nix isn't going to carry you, but he's been just good enough to help them win. He finds ways to move the ball downfield."
Added an NFC scout: "I'll go with the quarterback. Justin Herbert is too good not to break through eventually."
No one is counting out the Chiefs as potential Super Bowl champs at this stage, despite the sluggish start offensively. The Patrick Mahomes-era Chiefs never have ranked outside the top 10 in total offense at season's end. As of Week 9, they rank 11th.
"The Hopkins trade doesn't move the needle for me," an NFC personnel man said. "But an offense going through 87 [Travis Kelce] and 1 [Xavier Worthy] and the run game and defense can continue winning. I know Patrick [Mahomes] hasn't played great, but he finds two or three plays a game to secure the win, and that's part of his greatness."
Sleeper in the NFC West desert
Our first true sleeper enters the fray: In a division with serious pedigree featuring coaches Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay, the Cardinals seem to have something brewing.
"Arizona could surprise people and win that thing," an AFC executive said. "It's not a great division this year. San Francisco is hurt, and they will have a chance. [The Cardinals] have an identity and play tough."
Added an AFC personnel man: "Kyler [Murray] is just really hard to play against, and James Conner might be the most underrated player in the league. If their offensive line holds up, they can score on people."
Not much has changed for most, though: San Francisco is still considered the favorite.
"They'll get [Christian] McCaffrey back soon, they have enough offensively without [Brandon Aiyuk], and the defensive line probably needs one more move but is capable."
Pittsburgh's unliiimited potential in the AFC North
What complicates the picture at the top, according to executives: The Ravens might have the best chance to go to the Super Bowl, but some of those same people are sold on Pittsburgh winning this division.
A renewed Russell Wilson quarterbacking a near-complete Steelers team has many people buying in.
"Really good on defense, and the development of George Pickens on offense is big -- he's clearly more comfortable with Russell," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "Russell realizes he's not the mover he once was. But he can still run boots and get out of the pocket and make plays."
Most agree Pittsburgh needs to add a receiver at the deadline to enhance the passing attack. But it can dictate terms with its running game.
Even still, the Ravens are a trendy pick to finally break through and earn Lamar Jackson his first Super Bowl berth.
"They have more ways to beat you than the Steelers," an AFC executive said. "If you play dime against them, they run it down your throat. And if you load the box, Lamar can beat you from the pocket. He's probably playing his best football. The Ravens' offensive line finally came together. But I'm worried about the defense. They had some complete busts at the end of that [Browns] game."
Some are still holding out hope for Cincinnati\ but won't for much longer. "I still believe in Joe Burrow's ability to get them to the playoffs, but they don't look like a playoff-caliber team to me," an NFC coordinator said.
Best division of football spawning a Super Bowl winner?
Good luck to four teams about to endure two months of expected carnage in the NFC North. The Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Vikings and Bears have combined for a 21-8 record with the majority of divisional games still on the schedule.
Simply put, the Lions are considered the most dangerous team in football.
"They can beat you in more ways than anyone," an NFC scout said. "They can run the ball efficiently with either back, Jared Goff is elite off play-action but can dice you up from a traditional dropback, the secondary can turn you over. Losing [Aidan] Hutchinson hurts, no doubt. But there's enough talent on the roster to offset that."
The Packers have a lot of love leaguewide, and a win Sunday over Detroit in Green Bay can send a message in the North.
"They have maybe the deepest receiving corps in the division, and Josh Jacobs is a volume grinder that can slow things down for them," a league personnel director said. "That staff deserves a lot of credit. Matt LaFleur is 2-0 with Malik Willis as his starter. [Defensive coordinator] Jeff Hafley has them playing more disciplined, less mistakes."
The Vikings are considered firmly in the mix, too, and the trade for left tackle Cam Robinson was a shrewd move after losing Christian Darrisaw for the season. "We know they can score points with that coach [Kevin O'Connell] and the weapons around Sam Darnold," an AFC scout said. "And [Brian] Flores has done a great job, but now that the pass rush is slowing down a little bit as offenses have adjusted, can they keep up the same level of play?"
Chicago is a threat with an impressive defense and playmakers, but evaluators generally see the Bears as fourth in this lineup as it stands. "They really needed that [Commanders] game," the scout said.
Are the Colts coming for Houston in the AFC South?
The Indianapolis Colts benched quarterback Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco because Flacco gives the team the best chance to win right now.
People around the league took a more pointed message from head coach Shane Steichen's decision.
"I think that's squarely about Houston, which is banged up," one exec said. "The Colts feel like the Texans can be taken in the division. They lost to Houston twice with Richardson as the quarterback, and maybe they feel they are the better team at full tilt."
The Colts' defense is not considered as stout as in previous years, but the playmakers, Jonathan Taylor and a good offensive line are "enough to make a mini run for the playoffs" if Flacco is adequate.
Jacksonville (2-6) and Tennessee (1-6) look poised for losing seasons, with the latter clearly in rebuilding mode. As for the former? "Underachieving," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "There's talent on that roster. Unserious football team right now."
That leaves Houston, which should be praised for its start.
"There's something missing there, because the offensive line play hasn't been good, and now they are beat-up at receiver," an AFC scout said. "I still think they'll be fine once Nico Collins gets back because [C.J.] Stroud has such a connection with him. But Stroud is having to make plays with pass rushers all over him right now. At least they are good on the edge and good at corner, so they are hard to score on."
NFC South: Still meh
Last year, the NFC South featured three teams with at least seven wins, but that's not a slam dunk this year as New Orleans craters and Carolina faces a lengthy rebuild, to put it nicely.
That leaves Atlanta and Tampa Bay, which have had their moments but are hardly proven contenders.
"It's like the battle of the fastest snail," an NFL coordinator said. "I would probably take Atlanta in that scenario because I trust Kirk Cousins a little more than Baker Mayfield."
Some evaluators, however, noted Mayfield has been more prolific at times this season than Cousins, who has more proven weapons. Tampa is greatly depleted at receiver.
"Atlanta worries me because they struggle to get pressure on the quarterback, but the defense has been just good enough to win games," the coordinator said.
Super Bowl picks: Ravens vs. Lions
Let's do this again. Baltimore was last year's prediction. Jackson's improvement and the presence of Derrick Henry could validate this year's. Detroit has gone from trendy Super Bowl pick to the expected pick.
Dark-horse selections favor tried-and-true NFL brands: the Steelers and Packers.
"Green Bay should be in the conversation," an AFC executive said. "[The Packers] made progress in the playoffs last year and have picked up where they left off."