Everyone loves the NFL offseason hot stove. Fans get super excited about new players joining their teams, whether through trades or free agency. Finally, all those holes on the roster will be filled by wily veterans!
Unfortunately, it doesn't always work out. Some players excel in their new surroundings, bringing strong production. But other players struggle to make anything good happen, showing they were likely available veterans because their careers are almost over.
Let's evaluate five offseason free agent signings and trade acquisitions who are working in their new cities, and five who are not. Where are teams getting a lot of help from these new players, and where are teams on the hook for bad contracts?
Jump to a section:
Signings/trades that have worked out
Signings that aren't thriving so far
Five players whose deals are working out
Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
How he got there: Signed a three-year, $37.8 million contract ($26 million guaranteed)
2024 stat to know: 19.9% rush DVOA (fourth in NFL)
Comparable 2023 stat: Minus-12.7% rush DVOA (42nd out of 49)
It's an understatement to say Giants fans were shocked and disappointed when Barkley signed with the rival Eagles. Watching the negotiations with Barkley on "Hard Knocks: Offseason with the New York Giants" just made things worse. "I'll have a tough time sleeping if Saquon goes to Philadelphia, I'll tell you that," owner John Mara said on the show.
Some writers, including this one, were surprised by the signing given that the analytically oriented Eagles had not spent highly at the running back position in recent seasons. But it has paid off. Barkley is the second-most efficient running back in the NFL, according to my DVOA metric, trailing only Jahmyr Gibbs of the Lions. He has 872 yards and six touchdowns from scrimmage this season.
Most knew that life would be easier for Barkley behind the Eagles' offensive line, but here's a gigantic surprise: This season, the Eagles offensive line ranks 11th in run block win rate. Last season, the Giants offensive line ranked ... you guessed it, 11th in run block win rate. That offensive line is making things a lot easier for Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts than New York's Daniel Jones, but the run blocking has been similar in Barkley's old home and his new one.
So instead, he's excelling on his own. Last season, NFL Next Gen Stats listed Barkley with 0.39 average rush yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt. This season, Barkley is third in the league at 1.86 average RYOE per attempt. Barkley is standing out for the Eagles despite facing more defenders in the box, as well. Last season, Next Gen Stats listed Barkley as facing a heavy box of eight or more defenders just 15.0% of the time. That's up to 25.4% of the time this season.
Stephon Gilmore, CB, Minnesota Vikings
How he got there: Signed a one-year, $7 million contract (fully guaranteed)
2024 stat to know: Minus-33.9% coverage DVOA through Week 7 (15th out of 89)
Comparable 2023 stat: 2.4% coverage DVOA (57th out of 93)
There was certainly reason to question how much the 34-year-old veteran had left, especially when it took him until Aug. 18 to sign a contract. But the answer, so far, is he has plenty left. Gilmore has started all seven games and played 86% of the snaps for the Minnesota defense, which leads the league in my DVOA ratings.
The raw coverage stats are pretty average for Gilmore, who has one interception this season. He has allowed a lot of shorter completions and finally gave up his first touchdown against the Rams in Week 8, a 7-yard score for Cooper Kupp. However, Gilmore's coverage DVOA is near the top of the league because of adjustments for who he has had to cover. He has had difficult tests against these primary receivers this season:
Week 1: Malik Nabers
Week 2: A combination of Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel Sr.
Week 3: Nico Collins
Week 4: A combination of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks
Week 5: Garrett Wilson
Week 7: All over the place, covering all the Lions receivers and Sam LaPorta at times
Week 8: A combination of Kupp and Puka Nacua
There are a lot of very good wide receivers on that list. And Gilmore has held his own against that run of talent. The only bad news here is cornerback stats are notoriously inconsistent, so his performance is not necessarily an indication he'll be really good for the rest of the season. Still, this is a player with a strong track record and pedigree. The Vikings are glad to have Gilmore, who is a key player on their elite defense, to cover some of the best receivers in the game.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
How he got there: Signed a two-year, $16 million contract ($9 million guaranteed)
2024 stat to know: 2.91 RYOE per attempt (1st in NFL)
Comparable 2023 stat: 0.31 RYOE per attempt (17th in NFL)
The Derrick Henry of 2019-20 was a special player, a running back who truly transcended the idea that backs are all interchangeable. His three years since, where he averaged below 4.5 yards per carry each season, suggested he had become one of those interchangeable running backs who was no longer at his peak.
This year has certainly undermined that idea. Henry is leading the NFL with 145 carries, 946 rushing yards, 6.5 yards per carry and nine rushing touchdowns. What has really impressive is how many yards he's getting compared to the expectation when you consider where his blockers and defenders are at the time of the handoff. He leads the league in the Next Gen Stats RYOE model with nearly 3.0 yards per carry more than expected. Only a couple of other backs (Tank Bigsby and Barkley) are above 2.0 RYOE per attempt.
Most running backs are clearly in decline by the age of 30, but not all of them. Henry is matching superstars such as Adrian Peterson (1,485 rushing yards at age 30) and Curtis Martin (1,697 rushing yards at age 31). Henry is on pace for over 2,000 rushing yards.
It's unlikely he'll stay at this pace. He's probably not going to average 6.5 yards per carry for an entire season, but he should continue to be very efficient. The threat of quarterback Lamar Jackson taking off with the ball opens extra rushing lanes for Henry, and the upcoming return of Keaton Mitchell will help him get a little more rest to prepare for the postseason.
Danielle Hunter, DE, Houston Texans
How he got there: Signed a two-year, $49 million contract ($48 million guaranteed)
2024 stat to know: 24.2% pass rush win rate off the edge (fifth)
Comparable 2023 stat: 13.8% pass rush win rate off the edge (50th)
The Texans spent a lot of money to bring in Hunter, and they should definitely feel they got their money's worth. With a surprisingly mediocre passing game this season, the defense has driven them to a 5-2 start, and the pass rush is a huge part of that.
Houston ranks second in pass rush win rate (51.6%) and third in the NFL with 27 sacks. It also has the league's fourth-best defensive DVOA when the defense brings pressure on the quarterback. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Hunter leads the NFL in pass pressures at 51, seven more than any other defender. He also has 5.5 sacks and seven tackles for loss.
Another advantage of having Hunter on the defense is he makes it so much harder to constantly double-team Will Anderson Jr. It's really hard to double both of them! Last season, Anderson was double-teamed 24% of the time. In 2024, Anderson has been double-teamed 16% of the time.
Donte Jackson, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
How he got there: Traded by the Panthers for wide receiver Diontae Johnson and a minor draft pick swap
2024 stat to know: Minus-35.0% coverage DVOA through Week 7 (13th out of 89)
Comparable 2023 stat: 12.7% coverage DVOA (74th out of 93)
Jackson was never regarded as a top cornerback when he was with the Panthers, but his strong early performance opposite Joey Porter Jr. has helped the 6-2 Steelers rank 11th in defensive DVOA. Although Jackson has been in coverage on some big gains -- the longest are 28 yards to Michael Pittman Jr. in Week 4 and 48 yards to Jalen Tolbert in Week 5 -- he has yet to allow a touchdown this season. He also has six passes defensed and three interceptions after just five passes defensed with no interceptions for all of 2023.
"For a corner, [interceptions] do the most for your confidence, for your swagger, for real," Jackson told ESPN's Brooke Pryor last week. "When you get your hands on the ball, whether you are breaking it up, or punching it out, or most importantly getting interceptions out of the air, it does a lot for your confidence and it does a lot for the team's confidence."
As noted above with Gilmore, cornerback metrics are inconsistent, so it remains to be seen if Jackson can score this well over the rest of 2024. If he keeps it up, the Steelers will have to negotiate to keep him around, as he is scheduled to be a free agent at the end of this season.
Five players whose deals aren't working out
Gabe Davis, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
How he got there: Signed a three-year, $39 million contract ($24 million guaranteed)
2024 stat to know: Minus-25.3% receiving DVOA (61st out of 65)
Comparable 2023 stat: 12.2% receiving DVOA (22nd out of 81)
A lot of fans were surprised when the Jaguars signed Davis to a three-year contract and allowed Calvin Ridley to go elsewhere. Ridley is having his own problems in Tennessee (more there in a moment), but Davis has been no great shakes.
At first, things looked promising. Davis had three catches for 20 or more yards against Miami in Week 1. But through eight games, Davis has caught just 18 passes for 217 yards and two touchdowns (both against Chicago in Week 6). He's averaging only 12.1 yards per reception after averaging at least 15.7 in each of his four seasons with Buffalo.
Part of the issue is how Davis is being used by his new team. He had an average depth of target of 15.1 yards last season. This year, that's down to 12.0 yards. Normally, a shorter depth of target is going to raise catch rates as passes become easier to grab, but Davis' catch rate has dropped from 56% to 51%. However, he's still gaining yards after the catch. According to the NFL Next Gen Stats model, Davis' yards after catch over expectation has only dropped from 3.2 to 2.7 yards per reception.
Davis left this week's loss to Green Bay early with a shoulder injury, but the Jaguars will need him to step up as Christian Kirk is done for the year with a broken collarbone.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
How he got there: Signed a four-year, $92 million contract ($47 million guaranteed)
2024 stat to know: ESPN receiver score of 39 (tied for 65th out of 76)
Comparable 2023 stat: ESPN receiver score of 48 (tied for 66th out of 109)
Ridley was Tennessee's big free agent addition this offseason, coming off a 1,000-yard season with eight touchdowns for the Jaguars in 2023. But he has been tough to find in the Titans' offense, even with the team downshifting DeAndre Hopkins' role before trading the veteran to the Chiefs. Ridley has just 326 receiving yards and a single receiving touchdown. (He also had a 10-yard rushing touchdown; both touchdowns came against the Jets in Week 2.)
His season hit its nadir in Week 6, when he was targeted eight times without a single catch in a 20-17 loss to Indianapolis. Ridley was one of just 19 wide receivers to go 0-for-8 or worse in a game since 1979.
According to my advanced DVOA metric, his production has dropped. Ridley was a little above average at 3.1% last season, which ranked him 39th. He's at minus-21.9% DVOA this season, which is 57th out of 65 qualified wide receivers. The really big drop there has come in catch score via ESPN's receiver scores, where Ridley went from 50 in 2023 to 29 so far in 2024. (Both scores are on a scale of 1-100.)
The good news for the Titans is he may finally be asserting himself with Hopkins' departure. Ridley had his best game of the season against the Lions last week, catching 10 of 15 targets for 143 yards.
Tyron Smith, LT, New York Jets
How he got there: Signed a one-year, $6.5 million contract (fully guaranteed)
2024 stat to know: 83.5% pass block win rate (55th out of 67)
Comparable 2023 stat: 89.1% pass block win rate (26th out of 69)
Smith is a bit of a stand in here for the entire Jets offensive line, although he is the most disappointing among them. They signed three veteran starters this offseason: left tackle Smith, left guard John Simpson and right tackle Morgan Moses. They were supposed to dramatically improve the Jets' offense, protecting quarterback Aaron Rodgers and making big holes for Breece Hall in the run game. It hasn't happened. As a team, the Jets rank 19th in pass block win rate (57.8%) and 28th in run block win rate (67.8%).
Smith turns 34 in December, so should we have expected him to have problems this season? He was a second-team All-Pro just last season. And he hasn't been part of the run-blocking problem, as his RBWR is above average and has actually increased from 79.0% in 2023 to 82.7% this season.
However, he's not protecting Rodgers well, and he has committed six penalties, although three were declined. Smith is going to get Hall of Fame consideration for the 13 years he spent in Dallas, but he must improve his game if he wants to spend another year with the Jets.
D'Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
How he got there: Signed a three-year, $24 million contract ($14 million guaranteed)
2024 stat to know: Minus-23.1% rush DVOA (31st out of 33)
Comparable 2023 stat: 6.3% rush DVOA (16th out of 49)
Swift brings up an interesting discussion of just how much we should value a running back's contributions on the ground compared to his contributions as a receiver. He has dropped near last place in rushing DVOA among qualified backs. And until his big 56-yard touchdown run against Washington on Sunday, he was averaging 3.6 yards per carry after 4.6 in 2023 and 5.5 in 2022.
Advanced metrics suggest the Bears should have known Swift might struggle without the Philadelphia offensive line to open up running lanes for him. Even in a good season in 2023, NFL Next Gen Stats recorded him with an average of minus-0.29 RYOE per carry. That means he was gaining less yardage than expected given the placement of the blockers and defenders at the time of the handoff. This season, Swift is at minus-0.35 RYOE per carry.
However, it's hard for Swift to blame the offensive linemen for his struggles this season. Chicago ranks fifth in the run block win rate metric.
The good news for the Bears is they are getting positive production out of Swift, at least in the passing game. He has a strong 19.3% DVOA as a receiver and is averaging 10.2 yards per catch. But it's hard to argue his receiving makes up for the poor rushing performance, especially since short runs put quarterback Caleb Williams into bad down-and-distance situations.
Tre'Davious White, CB, Los Angeles Rams
How he got there: Signed a one-year, $4.3 million contract ($3.3 million guaranteed)
2024 stat to know: 68.6% coverage DVOA through Week 7 (89th out of 89)
Comparable 2023 stat: Minus-53.9% coverage DVOA (unranked, only played four games)
White was once one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL. He was selected as a first-team All-Pro in 2019 and made the Pro Bowl again in 2020. He played only 21 games for the Bills between 2021 and 2023 because of injuries, but even a year ago he played very well in a limited sample of four games. The Rams had to believe they were improving at an important position when they signed him to a reasonable deal in April.
It turns out they were not. Still working his way back from a torn Achilles, White was burned repeatedly over the first four games of this season. He has the worst coverage DVOA (68.6%) of any cornerback this season with at least 100 coverage snaps -- by a good margin. No other qualified cornerback is above 41%.
White allowed four touchdowns in coverage to four different receivers: Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Elijah Higgins and Jauan Jennings. According to FTN Fantasy charting, only five passes targeting White have been incomplete.
Los Angeles realized the problems White was having early on. It seems to have accepted this contract as a sunk cost, and he has been inactive for the Rams' past three games after playing nearly every snap for the first four weeks. ESPN's Sarah Barshop reported last week that the Rams and White are discussing options for his future, including a trade.