What a Week 8 of the 2024 NFL season! The Jets are 2-6, the Commanders won on a Hail Mary, Tua Tagovailoa got cheered on a slide and the Lions scored 52 points without moving the football. Halfway through the season and everyone's still having a blast except for the Chiefs, who are super boring and also 7-0.
Every Tuesday, I'll spin the previous week of NFL football forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We'll take a first look at the consequences of "Monday Night Football," break down a major trend or two and highlight some key individual players and plays. There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun. Let's jump in.
Jump to a section:
The Big Thing: Toughest teams to figure out
Second Take: Richardson wasn't that bad
All-Film team: Midseason callouts
Mailbag: Answering questions from ... you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 8 stats
Monday Night Mr. Unlimited
The Big Thing: The toughest teams to figure out
Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season?
Last week, I was pretty confident I could identify the league's "good" teams. (Spoiler alert: I cannot.) What I do know for sure is that there are a few teams that are still enigmas to me even after eight weeks of football. There are teams that could win any game and I wouldn't be too surprised. But there also are teams that can lose in embarrassing fashion in any game (looking at you, Seahawks) and I wouldn't be surprised, either. Here are four such teams and why they confound me so.
Seattle Seahawks: Can this defense be just good enough?
When Seattle's defense is bad, it looks like the worst in football. The Bills ran the football on the Seahawks without breaking a sweat Sunday. Posting 0.14 expected points added (EPA) per rush with a 50% success rate is gnarly stuff on the ground. In your home stadium and with the rain falling, you'd like to take advantage of the Bills' miscues, but even with an interception in the slick weather, the Seahawks allowed 3.1 points per drive. It was 7-3, then suddenly it was 31-10.
Seattle's biggest issue right now is its shaky run defense, but for more reasons than you think. There are the execution errors that are creating big holes and easy second-level runs. But the struggles of the run defense are also forming an even bigger weakness in the play-action passing game. Seattle is far better when it knows a dropback is coming, as the pass rush can tee off and coach Mike Macdonald can dial up designer coverages that protect the team's shaky linebackers and safeties.
The frustration is pretty evident for Macdonald, a defensive coach with a defense that can't execute on base downs and, accordingly, can't get to the cool stuff on later downs. I thought Macdonald's comment this week -- that the Seahawks haven't even gotten to the full depth of the playbook yet because of their issues -- was as telling as their midseason trade for Ernest Jones IV, a linebacker who was also available for trade before the season. The Seahawks are disappointed with the standard on defense so far, and they're scrambling for solutions.
I think this defense is better than the games it played against the 49ers, Bills and Lions. But consider who the Seahawks need to beat to establish positioning in the NFC West. They have the Cardinals (twice), a team that loves to run the football and go play-action. They have the Rams (twice, including this weekend), another team that loves to run the football, though they don't do as much play-action as in the past. And they have another date with the 49ers.
The game against the Rams on Sunday couldn't be any more enormous. With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back healthy and a two-game winning streak in their pocket, the Rams are hot. A win over Seattle would put them right back in the divisional race, and coach Sean McVay will be salivating while thinking of what his offense can do to that linebacking room. But the Rams' offensive line is also a susceptible unit, and when the Seahawks' defense has succeeded, it has been against pocket passers, such as Matthew Stafford, whom they can reliably pressure.
If the Seahawks make a postseason appearance this campaign, it will certainly be a result of their offense, which continues to be a strong unit despite a nightmare day in the low red zone against the Bills. The Seahawks don't need their defense to win them games; they just need their defense to not lose games. If Macdonald can find enough solutions over the second half of the season, I'm confident Seattle will be in the thick of the NFC playoff race.
Arizona Cardinals: Just do that every time, man!
I would love to fully believe in Arizona's offense, which I wrote about after Week 1 as a unit that was going to "win the Cardinals a few games this season." The seasonlong metrics indicate we've got a strong unit on our hands too. Arizona is seventh in success rate, ninth in EPA per play, 11th in series conversion rate and 12th in points per drive. No matter which way you slice it, this is a good unit.
But I don't understand why it vacillates between being so hard and so easy for the Cardinals to move the ball. On Sunday against a strong Dolphins defense, they were excellent. Kyler Murray authored magical play after magical play, winning with his arm in the pocket and his legs (and arm) outside of the pocket. Murray's ability to thrive under pressure has been particularly key this season; he is first in the league in EPA per dropback when pressured (0.16) and 23rd in EPA per dropback when unpressured (0.14). That's both super cool and super worrisome. It's cool because he is beating defenses when the Cards "win" on the chalkboard but worrisome because the passing game isn't solid within structure.
Rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. had a great game (six catches for 111 yards and a touchdown), which seems to happen only when the concern about his previous quiet games reaches a boiling point. The Cardinals finally got clever with Harrison, who ran 40% of his routes from the slot (a single-game high) and was targeted on a crossing pattern for the first time since Week 3. It should not be hard to build a passing game around Harrison, who has only struggled in games in which he has been stuck running vertical routes and comebacks while pinned to the sideline by an unchallenged cornerback.
Winning back-to-back games on last-second field goals feels great and is a testament to the Cardinals' management of the clock and game state. But I'm still wondering what happened against the Lions, whom most teams can throw against with no problem. What happened against the Packers, who held the Cardinals to minus-0.13 EPA per play? Even the game versus San Francisco that the Cardinals won was a shaky offensive performance against a run defense they should have dominated. When this offense encounters some resistance, it tends to spiral on bad Murray scrambles and weird late-down calls.
What is missing is the stabilizing, veteran presence. Harrison and tight end Trey McBride are the primary pass catchers for this team, and neither has yet earned the reputation of a key bucket getter who will always win the one-on-one you need. Murray, for as delightful a playmaker as he is, needs chaos to thrive. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is a young playcaller who is at his best doodling some wacky run-game wrinkles, and the lack of stability is as much on him as it is on his players. While Arizona can score with anyone, it still has a young offense figuring things out.
The Cardinals' defense is about as bad as it gets in the NFL, so I don't think the Cardinals are suited to hold their tenuous NFC West lead. Any hope they have hinges on this offense ascending from a pretty good unit to a weekly juggernaut, and that ascension demands finding some consistency. If Arizona does what it did to the Dolphins for the next month, call me. Until then, I have my doubts about this team.
Atlanta Falcons: I think they just beat up on bad defenses ...
The Falcons have three games with at least 30 points on the season: Week 8 against the Buccaneers, Week 5 against the Buccaneers and Week 6 against the Panthers. In those games, Kirk Cousins sat in the pocket with a flamethrower, dicing up porous secondaries with anticipation, zip and accuracy.
In every other game they've played this season -- games against any team with a heartbeat of a pass rush or defensive backs who can actually stick -- the offense folds ... fast.
The issue is the Falcons are just too predictable. If that sounds familiar, it is. We had these complaints about the Falcons' offense early in the season, when they were only running out of pistol formations and passing out of shotgun. They've solved some of the quarterback alignment problems, but that's not the only thing that can make an offense predictable. Cousins still has one of the lowest rates of play-action in the entire league and still hasn't intentionally left the pocket all season. In other words, defenses can be confident that when Cousins shows handoff, he's actually handing it off. And when Cousins drops back, they know he's going to stay in that pocket. So, the aiming point for the pass rush becomes clear.
Against secondaries such as those of the Bucs and Panthers, Cousins can just throw everything in rhythm and get chunk completions. No one feels the absence of play-action fakes and scramble-drill throws. But Atlanta isn't going to get those game states against good defenses. The Week 7 loss to Seattle looked fine on the stat sheet for the Falcons, but it was a game in which the Seahawks could anticipate playcalls and win with their pass rushers, so they got their splash plays on defense.
It's always hard to talk about fragile offenses such as this Falcons group, especially with all their dynamic playmakers. At any point, Bijan Robinson can win a game by breaking 19 tackles, just as Kyle Pitts can by running away from coverage. When things work, they work so well that it's tough to doubt the Falcons in any game. That's what a veteran quarterback does for you. But because there are no second-reaction plays in this offense and no multiplicity in the offensive structure, the Falcons have to be perfect on offense or else they are terrible. There is kind of no in-between.
That might be good enough to win the NFC South, but it sure doesn't feel good enough for the level of investment Atlanta placed in Cousins.
Indianapolis Colts: Uh, are you benching Anthony Richardson?!?
Actually, let's talk about this for real, because it's got my goat.
Second Take: Stay the course with Richardson
ESPN's "First Take" is known for, well, providing the first take on things -- the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather the spot where I'll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.
Richardson has one of the worst completion percentages we've ever seen.
After completing just 10 of 32 pass attempts against the Texans in Week 8, Richardson has now completed just 44.4% of his passes on the season. This century, only Akili Smith in 2000 was worse; he completed 44.2% and would start only three more games after that season before falling out of the league. Just above 2024 Richardson in completion percentage are 2011 Tim Tebow, 2009 JaMarcus Russell, 2005 J.P. Losman, 2004 Mark Brunell and 2000 Ryan Leaf.
So, it's not great company.
Of course, completion percentage is a far-from-perfect metric. It doesn't adjust for ... well, really anything. How pressured was the quarterback? How difficult were the throws that he was attempting? How good are his receivers? As a football-watching community, we've gotten a lot smarter than overreacting to sheer completion percentage. (No, we absolutely have not, because I've seen the Richardson completion percentage stat like 30 times now. But I'm choosing to be optimistic.)
Of the 816 quarterbacking seasons since 2000, Richardson's 12.3 air yards per target is the highest mark. Nobody is throwing downfield more than Richardson right now, and his company since 2000 is at least a little bit promising: 2011 Tebow is there, but so are 2006 Michael Vick, 2019 Matthew Stafford, 2018 Jameis Winston, 2006 Tony Romo, 2018 Josh Allen and 2015 Carson Palmer.
Richardson's depth of target is largely the result of his own play style, since no quarterback is forced into having such a towering depth of target by offensive design. And because he is attempting such challenging throws -- very far downfield and usually with little separation -- Richardson is not expected to have a great completion percentage. In this game, Richardson's expected completion percentage was 47.2%, the second lowest for a game since the start of the 2021 season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He still had a negative completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) of minus-16.0%, but CPOE is as much a receiver stat as it is a quarterback stat. Make a tough grab and it's a great CPOE day for the quarterback. Drop a contested catch and it's a bad day for CPOE.
What's far more interesting than Richardson's success on downfield targets is the downfield throws he attempts -- and the shallow throws he passes up in the process.
Take this throw on the first drive against the Texans. It's third-and-10 in field goal range. On his right, Richardson has rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell on a vertical route, with Michael Pittman Jr. on a shallow crosser working to that side of the field. Because the cornerbacks are in off-coverage, Richardson can choose to throw this ball to Pittman, expecting the traffic from the other releases and defenders to impede the corner as he chases Pittman down.
Incomplete pass pic.twitter.com/MrOUa63ENR
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) October 28, 2024
But Pittman is not guaranteed to pick up a first down. He'd have to break a tackle or win in space in order to get to the line to gain. So instead, Richardson throws beyond the sticks and into the end zone, testing Mitchell on a double move against Derek Stingley Jr. He delivers an excellent ball that should have been caught, but Mitchell doesn't get a foot down, and the Colts are forced to attempt a field goal.
It's difficult to say which choice would have been better here, because it isn't cut-and-dried. The Pittman throw is low-risk but low-reward. You're likely getting a fourth-and-short or maybe a first down. The Mitchell throw is high-risk, high-reward. It's a more challenging throw and catch, but if you connect, it's six points on the board. But one thing is for certain: The Pittman throw would look way better for box-score watching. It would have been a completion!
While Richardson could have picked up a warm and cozy 8-yard completion to Pittman, I don't think the Colts want Richardson to stop attempting that Mitchell throw. If they did, they'd stop giving Richardson as many vertical routes to target. Consider that 28% of the routes Richardson's receivers have run this season -- not routes he has targeted, but rather routes run overall -- have been vertical in nature. That's eighth most among league quarterbacks. The Colts are enabling him to take downfield shots, and appropriately so: He has a huge arm and moments of brilliant accuracy.
I'd imagine Colts coach Shane Steichen wants Richardson to start taking more layups on base downs. That doesn't mean third-and-10 with the end zone in sight, but it does mean first-and-10 within structure. Just get into a rhythm, get his pass catchers activated and give the defense more time on the sideline.
Here's a good example from the second drive of the game. It's second-and-13 after a Jonathan Taylor run for a loss. Off the play-action fake, Richardson is in the pocket with a free rusher flying in off his blind side. (Richardson was pressured on 60% of his dropbacks in this game, which is tied for the highest single-game mark this season -- which also seems like important context to the poor completion percentage.) He makes the rusher miss, but in the collapsing pocket off the Texans' blitz, he has to make an off-platform throw to the flood concept to his right.
There are two potential targets here, both open: Pittman, again on that shallow crosser, and tight end Will Mallory, running the intermediate out-breaker. Richardson elects the harder throw of the two to Mallory.
Free rusher, collapsing pocket, incomplete pass pic.twitter.com/ZMK3f6JczU
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) October 28, 2024
Once again, this ball should be caught. It's not a good throw, as it's behind the receiver, but it is eminently catchable. However, there's far less value add in this throw -- further downfield to the TE4 -- to justify taking it over the WR1, who is also open underneath. There's no high reward to this increase in risk. This is a good example of the decision-making that can lead to an unnecessarily deflated completion percentage. Richardson should just take Pittman on this throw and get to third-and-6.
Most of Richardson's incompletions are of these kinds of plays: aggressive choices that were anywhere from great to poor-but-still-catchable throws that weren't paid off by his receivers or offensive line. He missed an open Alec Pierce in the third quarter on a nine (go) route because left tackle Bernhard Raimann stepped on his foot. Richardson had a scramble drill Pierce touchdown called back on an offensive pass interference downfield. He missed Mitchell on another nine route by about a finger's length. He hit running back Tyler Goodson in both hands at the goal line on yet another nine route, but it was dropped. The tape shows a Colts team that was close to a big offensive day but just kept missing by small margins. Welcome to pro football! It's tough out here.
Within the near misses, there are also straight bad plays. Absolute stinkers. Richardson threw a pick targeting Josh Downs on a route that Texans nickel Jalen Pitre had already seen earlier in the game and was squatting on. He missed Downs badly on another underneath route early. He underthrew Pierce by about 15 yards on a scramble drill because he didn't take the time to set his feet. These are the plays that you see shared on social media and captured by NFL RedZone, because they are splashy and awful. But they are outsized in our minds. We see two egregious plays, we see a 31.3% completion rate and we assume that all 22 incompletions were equally egregious.
It simply isn't the case. Richardson played a totally imperfect but totally acceptable game that should have looked far better in the stat sheet. Watch the film. I promise.
Now, Steichen has watched the film, and he has still left the starting QB question open about Richardson. As he said to reporters Monday morning, Richardson is still their starter "today" and that the Colts are "evaluating everything." (Update: The Colts are benching Richardson in favor of Joe Flacco.)
I can conjure up plenty of potential explanations for this. Richardson tapping himself out for a play because he was "tired" in the third quarter was super weird and definitely raised some eyebrows. Is there a locker room problem? And of course, the front office and ownership can always get involved. I imagine general manager Chris Ballard and owner Jim Irsay would like to win some games and make the postseason. Maybe there's pressure from up high to move to Flacco, with whom the Colts would certainly complete more passes.
But would the Colts really be that much more competitive? The Flacco-led Colts lost to the then-winless Jaguars three weeks ago. Of course, Indianapolis' defense was the biggest culprit there. But I've got news for you: It's still the same defense. If you plug Flacco in for Richardson because of some misguided belief of playoff contention, you rob Richardson of even more reps. This was Richardson's 10th career start, for crying out loud! And it'd all probably just be for the chance to finish 10-7 with Flacco and get bounced in the wild-card round of the playoffs.
Flipping to Flacco right now might feel better because your quarterback posts fewer embarrassing stat lines, but there are no outs in a Flacco-led season. No positive-enough outcomes to save your team from collapse. He is 39 and maybe the 24th-best quarterback in football. The only world in which the Colts have a rosy 2025 and even 2026 outlook is the world in which Richardson hits as a successful young QB. And even if you believe there's next to no chance that outcome will exist, it's a better bet than drawing dead with Flacco. If Richardson is awful the rest of the way, Indy would be in the same place it'd be in if it started Flacco: without a quarterback of the future (but with a much better draft pick).
I don't know what went on with Richardson taking himself out for a play, but short of that issue, this is exactly the sort of player I'd want to hitch my wagon to. He makes all the high-difficulty plays you could ask for. He regularly saves the offense from bad pass protection and long down-and-distances. The snap-to-snap offense must be more consistent, but it's so much easier to take a naturally aggressive quarterback and force-feed him some layups than it is to take a risk-prone quarterback and teach him when and how to shoot. Matt LaFleur and the Packers have done this with Jordan Love. Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers did so with Brock Purdy. Even Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, over time, have learned this.
Richardson was not as bad as you think he was on Sunday -- not nearly as bad. He doesn't play a style of football that is conducive to high completion percentages. Even if his wideouts had made plays in this game, he would have completed about 50% of his passes. It just would have been a win, and nobody would have screenshotted his box score for likes. (Something that we all do, to be very clear ... myself included!)
He has had far worse games this season (like the loss to the Packers) and bounced right back with better games the following week. If the Colts bail on him now, it would be one of the most perplexing and inexcusable abandonments of QB development that I can remember.
All-Film Team: Midseason acknowledgements
Once in a while, I'll update my All-Film List -- or, as it's better known, my list of "players who won't get season-long awards or All-Pro nods or anything but are still good." This is a list without qualification. Rookies can make it, veterans can make it and guys you've never heard of can definitely make it. It's meant to catch those players who might not be popping on counting stats or playing key positions on contending teams ... but are popping on the film.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers: You could convince me that Herbert is playing the best ball of his career over the past few weeks. He's once again making the unbelievably difficult look dispassionately routine. I can list the number of quarterbacks who could make a passing game work behind this interior offensive line and with these receivers on one hand. The Chargers are a high-floor, low-ceiling team -- but they'd be a low-floor, no-ceiling team without No. 10 back there.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks: In his first two seasons as a pro, Walker had only four games with at least four catches. In six games this season, he already has four more. The activation of Walker as a three-down back has me wondering just how early I'd take him if I were drafting running backs to start a franchise. He's only 24 years old, after all. I'm taking Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, probably still Christian McCaffrey ... but after that?
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts: You won't find a bigger Downs fan than me. I think he's far and away the Colts' best receiver. Everything that Jayden Reed can do in that Packers offense -- line up in the slot, snap off routes, win downfield, catch everything through contact, take a reverse, line up in the backfield -- Downs can and does do for the Colts. Downs had only his second 100-yard game on Sunday, but he deserves even more volume than the nine targets he saw.
Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers: After Week 4, we had Panthers rookie wide receiver Xavier Legette here. I still like what I've seen from the big fella, who hauled in another touchdown grab on Sunday. But over the past month, the emergence of fellow rookie Coker has been a big storyline in the absence of Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson, who likely will be traded this week. (The Panthers traded Johnson to the Ravens on Tuesday.) An undrafted free agent out of Holy Cross, Coker has an X receiver's frame and has made multiple high-difficulty catches against the sideline. He's a big play walking.
Demarcus Robinson, WR, Los Angeles Rams: Everyone is so excited about Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returning to the Rams' starting lineup. Whatever. Real filmheads have enjoyed the growth of Robinson, a veteran who has earned the WR3 spot in the Rams' offense -- and the Rams use more three-WR sets than any other team in the league. Robinson can win on isolation routes downfield, presenting a nice break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option for Matthew Stafford when he likes the one-on-one matchup. And Robinson reliably makes the tough snags that other Rams receivers struggle on.
Darnell Washington, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers: This is a guilty pleasure pick, but I don't care. Washington (6-foot-6, 264 pounds, 83¾-inch wingspan) operates as a sixth offensive lineman for the Steelers in their running game and does so with aplomb. They use him as a featured blocker at the point of attack and even leave him isolated in pass protection against edge rushers -- and he usually wins. If you gave Arthur Smith truth serum and asked him who the most important players were to his offense, Washington's name would be out of his mouth really early.
Dion Dawkins, LT, Buffalo Bills: I highlighted Spencer Brown, the Bills' right tackle, after Week 4. He's the indie pick on the line. But the mainstream artist still deserves his credit. Dawkins has steadily improved over the course of his career to the point that he's now a set-it-and-forget-it left tackle. He doesn't ever get help, even against top edge rushers, and rarely loses a rep cleanly. The Bills even mess with their splits between Dawkins and the left guard to put him on a bigger "island." That's how confident they are in his dominance one-on-one.
Penei Sewell, RT, Detroit Lions: For the first time in about five years, Lane Johnson is not the best right tackle in football.
Sam Cosmi, RG, Washington Commanders: I was dubious about the Commanders' line coming into the campaign and quite surprised by the four-year, $74 million extension that Cosmi and the Commanders agreed on just before the season began. Insert the Shaquille O'Neal "I apologize. I wasn't familiar with your game" meme here. Cosmi has really excelled in the new-look Commanders' offense. Length was always an issue for him at tackle, but now that he has been bumped inside to guard, his quickness and balance have looked great in the running game. He has the flexibility to anchor against shorter, squattier defensive tackles on the pass rush.
Graham Barton, C, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Barton was a college left tackle whom NFL scouts far preferred as an interior option. But rookie offensive linemen usually take a little bit of time, and doubly so for a player moving from the blind side to the pivot. Yet Barton has taken the transition swimmingly. Ravens defensive tackle Travis Jones was a feature on this list last month, and Barton gave him trouble that no other center has so far this season. However, Barton is at his best not on the first level against defensive tackles but rather when climbing to the second level and tagging linebackers in space. He has a lot of length and a lot of quickness.
Hjalte Froholdt, C, Arizona Cardinals: Instead of a left guard, I'm doubling up on centers for the fifth OL spot. The Cardinals' running game is one of the most fun to watch in the league, and Froholdt is a big part of its success. Froholdt is a fire hydrant in the middle of that line; he drops anchor when he seals off a running lane and just doesn't move. He can be a steamroller, but I'm most impressed when he is exchanging power for power in the tight spaces on the interior as both a run blocker and pass protector. He's a presence.
Jonathan Greenard, Edge, Minnesota Vikings: It breaks my heart that Greenard, who was long my hipster pick as an unknown edge rusher for the suffering Texans, has now become the star that everyone overlooks to talk about Andrew Van Ginkel. Greenard is the ringer that the Vikings rely on when they aren't blitzing, and he consistently beats opposing left tackles with a great combination of hand fighting and power. The Vikings reduced salary and got younger when they swapped Danielle Hunter for Greenard, and they got a flat-out better player too.
Greg Rousseau, Edge, Buffalo Bills: We love to see a player doing the thing in a contract year. Rousseau was drafted for his measurables and ceiling, as he never fully panned out in college. And after a few years in the pros, the full picture is starting to come into clarity. Rousseau's best reps -- which feature a nearly unbeatable combination of length and power -- have come more frequently and against better competition so far this season. He's still a more impactful run defender than a pass rusher, but that ability to collapse the pocket through the offensive lineman and force the quarterback into the waiting arms of a teammate will be valuable for someone (the Bills or otherwise) for all of Rousseau's career.
Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Washington Commanders: I thought the loss of Jonathan Allen might hurt the Commanders' surprisingly plucky defense, but Newton -- a rookie who fell a bit in the draft with foot injury concerns -- has looked like the first-rounder he should have been. He is impossibly quick for a 300-pounder and regularly throws wrinkles into opposing running games by getting upfield and ruining angles and timing. When he wins on his pass rush, it's early in the down, and that's hugely valuable for an interior rusher. There is a very, very high ceiling here.
Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Detroit Lions: All remaining card-carrying members of the Onwuzurike fan club are rejoicing at the healthy season that he is finally stringing together. The No. 41 pick in the 2021 draft, Onwuzurike dealt with back injuries in each of his first three seasons. But when he is healthy, he's an absolute load as an interior pocket pusher. In the absence of healthy edge rushers against the Titans on Sunday, Onwuzurike was forced to play off the edge and actually put together a few more pressures with his combination of explosiveness and power. If he can continue to win in a hybrid role, it will help alleviate the loss of Aidan Hutchinson (leg) as the Lions make their postseason run.
Trenton Simpson, LB, Baltimore Ravens: A second-year pro and a first-year starter stepping in for Patrick Queen (now with Pittsburgh), Simpson is far from a perfect player. The Ravens tried to hide Simpson from passing downs to start the season, and they are slowly phasing him back in. But man, I will gamble on that combination of length, agility and first-step explosiveness on any given week. The Ravens have a big coverage issue at linebacker this season, but if Simpson can continue improving week over week, it might be fixed by the time they get to postseason ball.
Jordyn Brooks, LB, Miami Dolphins: We all thought the Dolphins would be quiet in free agency, but they snatched Brooks when he hit the market this spring. What a win for that pro personnel department. Brooks hasn't left the field all season (he has legit played 415 of a possible 415 snaps). And he has continued where he left off in Seattle by winning in coverage and is strong enough against the run. Few linebackers make more splash plays in zone coverage than Brooks, and coordinator Anthony Weaver's defense doesn't go without a quality coverage 'backer.
Cooper DeJean, NB, Philadelphia Eagles: It would be an overstatement to say that DeJean saved the Eagles' defense, but it was bad before he got healthy and good after he took over the starting slot job from Avonte Maddox, so I'm going to say it anyway. DeJean has been one of the most impressive rookies I've seen all season, immediately showing a veteran level of feel both when matching routes behind him and closing downhill. He won more reps against Ja'Marr Chase on Sunday than I can remember a player winning in quite some time. The fit in a Vic Fangio defense that needs a safety-like nickel couldn't be more snug.
Mike Sainristil, CB, Washington Commanders: When the Commanders drafted rookie Sainristil in the second round, we all lauded their investment in a quality starting nickel. Sainristil started the season in the slot, but with poor play on the outside, he was forced into a role on the boundary -- where he has thrived! Sainristil lacks the ideal size of an outside corner (5-foot-10, 182 pounds), but he has proved extremely sticky in man coverage without drawing flags (something most rookie corners struggle with) and is still able to affect the catch point. I'm curious to see what he becomes long term for the Commanders, but right now, he's saving their bacon on the outside.
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Philadelphia Eagles: Mitchell has been one of the most tested cornerbacks in the league, as opposing offenses avoid Darius Slay Jr. and elect instead to test the rookie. Mitchell has more than risen to the challenge. He is thriving right now in off-coverage with his eyes in the backfield, anticipating and jumping routes or getting connected to receivers far downfield and closing windows. And the stats would look far more favorable if Mitchell could have caught one of a few footballs that have hit him in the mitts.
Evan Williams, S, Green Bay Packers: There are always a few rookies who splash in the league whom you never really heard much about during the predraft process. Williams is one of those guys for me. The fourth-rounder out of Oregon has been a revelation beside Xavier McKinney, and his success in the box as a run defender has allowed McKinney those single-high reps from which so many interceptions have come. The tackling skills are particularly impressive; Williams is bringing people down in space and finding the football while he's at it.
Malik Mustapha, S, San Francisco 49ers: Mustapha was on the wrong end of a Patrick Mahomes highlight when he got truck sticked into the end zone, but generally this season, Mustapha has been the one laying the wood. Mustapha's love for contact has immediately made him a fit in the San Francisco defense, and that's doubly huge given the absence of Talanoa Hufanga (knee). The 49ers tried to protect Mustapha from man coverage plays when he was first thrust into the starting lineup, but as he has inevitably gotten tested, he has responded well.
From y'all
The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime -- but especially on Monday each week -- to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.
From Troy: "Is Tua Tagovailoa the big winner of the first half of the season? Many people thought he was overpaid, but we came to see just how bad this offense is without him, and the offense puts up 27 points in his first game back."
Yes. Also no.
I think the Dolphins' failure to get the offense going with their backups is a much bigger indictment on coach Mike McDaniel than it is a feather in Tua's cap. When the starting quarterback goes down, it is the head coach/playcaller's responsibility to bend the offensive approach around the backup. McDaniel, whom I long characterized as excellent at building around Tagovailoa's strengths, struggled to find a way to maximize Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley. Even when Teddy Bridgewater was the backup for this team, the Dolphins largely just ran the Tagovailoa stuff for him and hoped it would work well.
It increasingly seems like McDaniel was correct when he said to sportswriter Mike Silver in 2022: "Tua is the perfect quarterback for this offense." The Dolphins' success with Tagovailoa isn't so much about McDaniel fine-tuning the Shanahan offense to fit Tua's skill set as it is about Tua's particular playing style making the offense something new and explosive (at least, for the first 1.5 seasons of the McDaniel-Tagovailoa relationship).
With that said, even when Tagovailoa is in, this offense still minimizes the quarterback's impact on the passing game by creating so many one-read throws and lightning-fast plays. His decisiveness and rapid release is integral to the offense's execution, but this offense still succeeds more so because of the cumulative team speed (De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle) and the machinations of McDaniel.
I definitely believe more now than I did in 2022 or 2023 that Tagovailoa is integral to Miami's offense. I still watched the film on Sunday, though. There were plenty of prototypical Tua oopsies under pressure and on downfield throws. He's far from a perfect QB.
From John: "Saints fan here. I don't think the Alvin Kamara extension is bad, relatively speaking. He's a fan favorite and is likely retiring as a Saint. But when you juxtapose that with everything that's happened since Drew Brees retired, it's borderline malpractice. Can both truths co-exist?"
This is such a good and important point. Fans should want their teams to have good and healthy cap space to build contenders and win Super Bowls. But it is wrong to root for cap management over cool, good players being paid. Saints fans, I'd imagine, love Kamara nearly universally. He's an electric running back and a Saints lifer, and he has a good relationship with the team and the fan base. He deserved an extension for the caliber of his play, and he got it.
It's not incumbent on fans to root against their players for the sake of financials. Saints fans should celebrate that Kamara is back in the building for another few years. The Saints' front office ... well, it should be making the hard decisions about the long-term state of the franchise. And I won't be holding my breath on that.
From Shovik: "Ben, what the hell is up with Brian Callahan and the Titans' offense this year? I thought Cally was an offensive-minded coach, but man, this offense seems so uncoordinated."
It's an excellent question. I'm largely trying to reserve judgment on Callahan's group because I think the Titans' offensive line is just about the worst pass-protecting group in football, which makes a lot of what the Titans want to do totally untenable.
However, you can see how calling plays for a quarterback of Joe Burrow's caliber has affected Callahan. A lot of those five-man protections, five-in-the-concept, pick-a-matchup-and-win-it plays worked a lot better when Burrow was back there super-processing pre-snap. Burrow also threw so many catchable, WR-friendly 50-50 balls along the outside. Ask Calvin Ridley how many of those he has seen this season with Tennessee.
What Burrow did for Callahan (and to a lesser degree what Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins did) kind of spoiled Callahan as a playcaller and a designer. Callahan hasn't really found a way to put training wheels on the offense -- not for Will Levis or Mason Rudolph. I still think what Callahan's cooking might work eventually, if the protection gets better and a better scheme fit steps in at quarterback. But right now, there's a huge chasm between what the coach wants from his quarterback and what his quarterbacks are capable of delivering.
From Brett: "Is it time for me to apologize for all my Bo Nix slander from this summer?"
Nah. Everyone beats the Panthers. But watch out: The Ravens' pass defense is real rough, and Baltimore is the Broncos' Week 9 opponent. Nix hype is about to skyrocket again.
From Totoro: "CEDRIC TILLMAN HIVE REPRESENT"
We're so back. And more importantly, we never left.
Next Ben Stats
NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.
plus-2.2%: That's the Chargers' pass rate over expectation since the bye, per NFL Next Gen Stats. It's the third-highest number in that stretch.
For perspective, the Chargers were minus-10.5% in pass rate over expected before the bye. They were one of the most run-heavy teams in football before Week 5. Afterward, they've become one of the pass-heaviest.
What changed? It's not like L.A. suddenly got healthier. In fact, starting wide receiver Quentin Johnston (ankle) has been absent from the lineup in the past two weeks. It's not like the team was struggling before the bye, either. The Chargers were 2-2. Their offense was far from great, but the formula of shortening games with a dedicated ground attack and winning on defense was working as intended.
So, I'm not entirely sure why the switch flipped in the bye week, but I'm glad it did. The Chargers have taken the Maserati out of the garage, and quarterback Justin Herbert is delivering the way he usually does -- managing the game, avoiding negatives and occasionally hitting the most bananas, high-difficulty throw you've ever seen. His receiver room is pretty shaky, but if rookie WR Ladd McConkey's six-catch, 111-yard, two-score performance this week was a sign of things to come, this passing attack can continue to cruise.
The question left for the Chargers is whether they can interchange between the two approaches. They haven't played in a trailing script over these past three weeks, so what will happen when they're down early? They haven't faced a particularly scary offense these past few weeks, either. Can they become a chew-the-clock team again at will?
I think yes. Stock up for the Chargers as a playoff contender.
3: That's how many total snaps on which the Bengals' defense pressured Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts on Sunday. Leaguewide, a defense has totaled fewer QB pressures than that just once this season (Colts versus the Jaguars in Week 5).
The Eagles' offensive line is a juggernaut, so this would be totally reasonable -- except starting left tackle Jordan Mailata (hamstring) and starting right guard Mekhi Becton were both out for this game. And Hurts walked into this game with one of the highest times to throw in the entire league (3.08 seconds). In fact, Hurts has been pressured at an above-average rate this season (33.6% of his dropbacks, while the average is 31.2%).
This is a staggering failure from the Bengals, as they simply cannot do anything on the defensive front unless Trey Hendrickson is dominating. Coordinator Lou Anarumo had ratcheted up the blitz rate in recent weeks against struggling offenses (Giants and Browns) to account for the lack of a rush, and he tried to keep the heat up against Hurts and the Eagles, blitzing on 27% of Hurts' dropbacks. It did not help.
With time in the pocket and clean platforms to throw from, Hurts had one of his best games of the season. He hit the middle of the field, avoided turnovers and made some peak throws downfield. But give some flowers to backup left tackle Fred Johnson, who had 13 one-on-one pass-blocking snaps against Hendrickson and surrendered only one pressure.
plus-136: That's how many receiving yards over expectation Bills rookie wideout Keon Coleman has this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. It's the fifth most for any pass catcher in 2024.
Let's pull a random rookie wide receiver to compare. Oh, I don't know, how about ... Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy, who was drafted by the Chiefs after they traded up in the first round to get him. Of course, the team that traded back was the Bills, and everyone was very frustrated that the Bills would let the Chiefs jump up in the draft to get the 40-yard dash record holder. But Worthy has minus-134 receiving yards over expectation this season, which is second worst in the league.
Remember: Speed threats are cool, but complete receivers are way cooler. The Bills drafted a three-level player who can create before and after the catch and win through contact. The Chiefs drafted yet another gadget receiver who can't yet handle a full menu of routes and alignments.
Like, a billion: That's how many weird stats I have about the Lions' win over the Titans, via ESPN Research:
The Lions are the first team in NFL history to win by 30-plus points yet be outgained by at least 150 yards since 1933 (which is the first year someone was, like, "Hey, we should keep track of how many yards these teams got in this game").
The Lions scored 52 points despite only totaling 225 yards of offense, which is the second-fewest yards gained in a 50-plus-point outing in NFL history (shoutout to the 1941 Packers).
The Lions had 61 net passing yards, which is the second-fewest passing yards gained in a 50-plus-point outing in NFL history (shoutout to the 1950 Giants).
OK, that's yards. Now drives:
The Lions had four touchdown drives of 25 or fewer yards. They're the second team to ever have that many touchdown drives under 25 yards, joining the 1988 Houston Oilers.
The Lions had five touchdown drives of 30 or fewer yards. Going as far back as the Elias Sports Bureau has data (1978), that had never happened until Sunday.
The Lions also had five touchdown drives of four or fewer total plays -- only the sixth time that has happened in a single game this century.
The Lions' average starting field position for the full game was their own 41.8-yard line, the fourth-best starting field position for a game this season.
Just a preposterous game. One in a million.
Monday Night Mr. Unlimited
Each week, we will pick out one or two of the biggest storylines from "Monday Night Football" and break down what it means for the rest of the season.
We got an appropriately wacky "Monday Night Football" game between two wacky teams. The Steelers looked good once again with Russell Wilson under center. He was 20-for-28 for 278 yards, hitting big completions on vintage downfield floaters to George Pickens, Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin III (for a score!) and even supersized tight end Darnell Washington.
Through two weeks, the passing game with Wilson certainly has more juice than it did with Justin Fields. Over three seconds time to throw and more than 10 air yards per attempt is vintage Russ. But when Wilson fumbled up one score late in the fourth quarter, it was a reminder that Wilson going back to his old ways isn't 100 percent a good thing.
Pittsburgh is now 6-2 and in sole possession of the lead spot in the AFC North. I really trust this defense, which has star talent at all three levels and a ton of depth to go with it. And I can be made to trust this offense if it continues to follow the Wilson formula over a larger sample. Two wins against the 2-6 New York teams is far from a decisive proving ground. The Steelers have a bye in Week 9 before catching the Commanders in Week 10 and the Ravens in Week 11. Let's test that mettle.