Early in the NFL season, there are lots of mentions of players on pace to put up huge numbers. "Ja'Marr Chase is on pace for 1,600 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns," that sort of thing. But most of the time, no one has any idea of which teams and players were on pace for similar things in the past.
Over time, performance usually regresses toward the mean. Teams and players that started super hot will slow down. Teams and players that were terrible early will get better. It's not useful to compare a performance after five games to what other teams have done in full 16- and 17-game seasons. It's better to compare that performance to what other teams have done in the same number of games.
I do that with DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) stats, explained further here. I went back and re-ran every season since 1979 to see what DVOA would have looked like as of a certain week in the past. Teams are rated solely based on what they did through five games, and opponent adjustments are based only on opponents through five games.
I've picked out seven early trends from the 2024 season below, taking a look at the Ravens, Saints and Bengals (three historically good teams given their unimpressive win-loss records), the Vikings' great defense, the Browns' terrible offense and the strong starts for rookies Jayden Daniels and Brock Bowers.
Let's go through to see where those teams and players compare to history and then look at what happened in the past to get an idea of what might happen over the final three months of the season.
Jump to a section:
Minnesota's stellar defense
Cleveland's porous offense
Where Jayden Daniels' start ranks
How Baltimore's 3-2 start stacks up
Will 2-3 New Orleans bounce back?
Does 1-4 Cincy have a postseason shot?
This tight end might be underrated
1. The Vikings have the sixth-best defense through five games since 1979
Minnesota ranks fifth in the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.8) and second in total turnovers (13) this season, despite playing an above-average schedule of opposing offenses. DVOA lists the Vikings as roughly 37% more efficient than the NFL average. No other defense is better than 16%.
That puts them on the list of the best early-season defenses ever measured by DVOA:
Most of these defenses finished the season on top as well. The exception was the 2009 Giants, who faded to 8-8 with a middle-of-the-pack defense by the end of the season. Out of the top 10 defenses, only the 2002 Buccaneers won a Super Bowl, but a few other Super Bowl champions are just below this top 10 list: The 1996 Packers rank 16th, 1991 Washington is 18th and the 2015 Broncos are 21st.
What's most remarkable is that Minnesota is combining good-not-great players with coordinator Brian Flores' scheme. Looking at the Vikings' depth chart, there are no players who are among the five best NFL players at their positions. They lead the league by blitzing on 41% of all dropbacks and rank fourth among defenses in the frequency of using zone coverage.
What to expect from the Vikings going forward: The Vikings' schedule of opposing defenses gets easier, but their schedule of opposing offenses does not. Nonetheless, the past performance of these great defenses suggests they will continue to have one of the league's best defenses -- perhaps the No. 1 defense -- for the rest of the season.
Sam Darnold is not a great quarterback, but the Vikings so far look similar to the 2002 Buccaneers and 2015 Broncos: Teams powered by a defense that won Super Bowls with caretaker quarterbacks such as Brad Johnson and a final-season Peyton Manning.
2. The Browns have the eighth-worst offense through five games
How far behind the rest of the league is Cleveland's offense right now? The Patriots' offense, which ranks 30th in DVOA, is about 18% less efficient than the league average. Next comes Miami, currently led by backup quarterbacks, which is 28% less efficient than average. And then way down, way below every other team, there's the Browns -- roughly 44% less efficient than the NFL average.
Prefer standard stats? OK, the Browns are averaging 3.8 yards per play when every other team in the NFL averages at least 4.3. They rank last in yards per game as well (239.4).
DVOA ranks the Browns 30th on the ground and last through the air. They have the worst offense before and after halftime. They rank dead last on first- and second-down success. Miracle of miracles, they aren't last on third downs, ranking ahead of the Dolphins. They are worse than the expansion Cleveland offense of 1999, although they are better overall because they have an average defense. (That's an additional disappointment, but a different subject.)
What to expect from the Browns going forward: The second-worst offense over the first five games belonged to the 2018 Bills, who were quarterbacked by rookie Josh Allen. That's reason for optimism, isn't it? Well, no, because a) They were still bad on offense that whole season, b) Allen didn't play well until two years later and c) The Browns have a struggling 29-year-old QB in Deshaun Watson.
What about the team turning it around this season? The 12th team that would go on the table above is the 1983 Broncos, who turned around their early offensive struggles to finish 9-7 and even earn a wild-card playoff spot. But that's another team with a rookie quarterback improving with experience, in this case, John Elway. Out of the 40 worst offenses through five games, only one other team finished with a winning record: the 2005 Vikings, who were also 9-7.
It's certainly possible the Browns are in a situation like the 2001 Washington team that started 0-5 and then turned things around to finish 8-8 with veteran Tony Banks at quarterback. That team was helped along by a strong defense, and this Cleveland team might be helped as well if the defense plays more like it did last season.
3. Jayden Daniels ranks eighth in value among rookie quarterbacks through five starts
Our list of the top 10 rookie quarterbacks is based on DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above average replacement), a stat based on DVOA that represents total value instead of value per play. DYAR includes both passing and rushing, and it's based on each player's first five starts instead of the first five games of their rookie seasons.
The surprise is really that Daniels isn't higher on this list given how well he played in the first four weeks of the season. His Week 5 performance against Cleveland comes out near 0 DYAR because of his negative plays, including an interception in the red zone, three sacks and a completion that lost three yards. That means Daniels is now only fifth in DYAR on the season, trailing Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield and Brock Purdy -- quarterbacks who have thrown more passes. Only Jackson has been better in DVOA (value per play).
What to expect from Daniels going forward: That's a great list of rookie passers, most of whom had very productive careers. The Commanders will be very happy if Daniels can turn into a combination of the other players on that list. He looks like he's in line for a long, successful career.
4. The Ravens are the sixth-best team to be 3-2
"You are what your record says you are" is a quote from longtime NFL coach Bill Parcells, stating that a football team is only as good as its win-loss record. But that's not necessarily true when looking to the future. Some teams are better than their record suggests and are likely to win more games in the future. Others are worse and are likely to lose more games. What's more accurate is to say, "You were what your record was." Teams can't go back and change their win-loss record no matter how the underlying statistics suggest that they played in those games, or how well they may play in the future.
The Ravens are going to have to live with two losses in their first five games. First, they lost by the length of Isaiah Likely's toe against the defending champion Chiefs. Then they lost a game to the Raiders, despite outgaining Las Vegas by 123 yards with the same number of turnovers (1). Follow that up with three wins over strong opponents, including a blowout of the Bills, and Baltimore comes out as the second-highest team in DVOA so far (behind Minnesota but ahead of Kansas City). That also makes it one of the highest-rated 3-2 teams in DVOA history.
What to expect from the Ravens going forward: The best-ever start for a 3-2 team came last season, from the aforementioned Bills, who finished 11-6. Notice that two of the five best 3-2 teams actually finished with losing records, though.
Things look better further down the list. Out of the top 15 teams in DVOA at 3-2, only the 2003 Buccaneers and 1997 Cowboys missed the postseason. Just below the top 10 are both the 2005 Seahawks and 2005 Steelers, who built on their 3-2 starts to meet each other in Super Bowl XL.
The 2005 Steelers were one of a dozen teams since 1979 to go from 3-2 to a Super Bowl title. Surprisingly, only five of those teams had a DVOA above 10% when they were 3-2. At this point, it's hard to imagine the Ravens not rebounding from their 0-2 start to make the postseason. Whether they can beat the Chiefs in January is a different story.
5. The Saints are the third-best team to be 2-3
The Saints are the opposite of the Ravens. While Baltimore started 0-2 and then righted the ship, New Orleans started with two huge wins and has lost all three games since. It beat Carolina 47-10 and then Dallas 44-19. These currently stand as two of the top three games of the season by single-game DVOA. (The other is Buffalo's 47-10 win over Jacksonville in Week 3.)
The Saints haven't completely fallen apart since that hot start, though. Their ratings for losses to Philadelphia and Kansas City are bad but not terrible. And they have a positive DVOA for their 26-24 loss to Atlanta in Week 4. Although the Falcons outgained them on a per-play basis, the Saints had an excellent third-down conversion rate (53.8%) and a lot of bad luck from not recovering a fumble to losing the coin toss in overtime.
Overall, the Saints are 11th in DVOA on offense, eighth on defense and fourth on special teams this season. The DVOA system might be overrating their win against Carolina because opponent adjustments for the Panthers are based on both Bryce Young's and Andy Dalton's games. But even if they were penalized a bit more for this, they would still be one of the top 2-3 teams in history.
What to expect from the Saints going forward: The list of the best teams at 2-3 is surprisingly promising when looking at how well those teams did down the line. Thirteen of the top 25 teams at 2-3, or more than half, eventually made the postseason. Several of the other teams finished 9-7 or 8-8, which could translate in today's NFL to 9-8 and competition for the seventh playoff spot.
Our expectations for the Saints changed dramatically due to the oblique injury suffered by quarterback Derek Carr, however. Spencer Rattler will be starting for the Saints against the Bucs this week, and there aren't high expectations for the rookie fourth-round pick who has not yet attempted a pass in a regular-season NFL game. It helps that New Orleans plays the league's second-easiest remaining schedule based on average DVOA of opponents. However, it is unlikely to make the playoffs unless Carr is ready after only missing a couple of games.
6. The Bengals are the fourth-best team to be 1-4
There's nothing the Bengals can do to change the fact they are 1-4, even though DVOA suggests they have played like an above-average team overall. They rank 13th in DVOA ahead of five different teams with winning records.
Each of Cincinnati's four losses have come by less than a touchdown. Cincinnati had a higher single-game DVOA rating than both the Chiefs when it lost to Kansas City in Week 2 and the Commanders when it lost to Washington in Week 3. Its defense and special teams are below average but not by too much. DVOA ranks the Bengals' offense third in the league, behind only the Ravens and the Commanders.
What to expect from the Bengals going forward: Unlike with the Ravens and the Saints, this time a look at similar historical teams does not present a reason for optimism. Most of the top DVOA teams at 1-4 declined as their on-field performance caught up with their record. The big exception was the 2004 Bills, who only needed to beat the Pittsburgh backups in Week 17 to seal a playoff spot but ended up losing and finishing with the best DVOA ever for a team that missed the playoffs. A couple of teams went 5-6 the rest of the way and were just mediocre, including the 1990 Vikings and the 2003 Jets.
Yes, teams have come back from a 1-4 start to make the playoffs, most recently Washington during the 2020 COVID season. However, those are all teams that started poorly and earned their 1-4 records before turning things around in October.
On the other hand, there's a different reason to believe that the Bengals can turn things around. Based on the average current DVOA of their opponents, they have the easiest projected schedule for the rest of the regular season. Seven of their remaining 12 games are on the road, though.
7. Brock Bowers ranks 11th in value among rookie tight ends after five games
Bowers leads both the Raiders and all NFL tight ends in receptions (28) and yards (313). He ranks fifth in receiving DYAR value behind four tight ends who have been more efficient with less opportunity: George Kittle, Isaiah Likely, Cole Kmet and Pat Freiermuth.
His start puts him among the best rookie tight ends ever measured by DYAR. Our list is based on the first five games for each player, whether they started or not.
What to expect from Bowers going forward: A number of tight ends who were among the fastest rookie starters developed into longtime NFL starters and, in Rob Gronkowski's case, a future Hall of Famer. But it's a little surprising how many of the players on this list did not turn into year-after-year Pro Bowlers like the Raiders are expecting from Bowers.
Randy McMichael, for example, had 16 catches for 230 yards and three touchdowns in his first five games. He only had one touchdown the rest of the season and, while he had a long career, never made a Pro Bowl. Obviously, Bowers, a top-15 pick, comes with a better draft pedigree, as McMichael was a fourth-rounder in 2002.
Robert Awalt is an even more puzzling story. He barely played in his first three games, then had nine catches for 97 yards and a touchdown and nine catches for 124 yards and a touchdown in consecutive games. He finished his rookie season with 42 catches, 526 yards and 6 touchdowns, but he never matched those numbers again. He was done as a regular starter after three seasons.
Bowers' hot start shows how much promise he has as a tight end, but it doesn't guarantee him stardom over the next few years.