As the NFL's legal tampering period approaches -- teams can begin negotiating with free agents on March 11 -- I'm breaking down the league's free agent market by position and tier.
The goal is to try to understand who's likely to be available to teams next week and what that means for the negotiating power on both sides. I've gone through the pending free agents for 2024 and included potential cap casualties to see whether there's a surplus or a shortage of starting-caliber talent available.
On Feb. 26, I evaluated the quarterbacks, tight ends and offensive linemen, and then I covered running backs and linebackers Thursday. Now, the focus moves back toward the passing game, with wide receivers and defensive backs. I'll start on offense, where there's a clear top wideout and a murky group of talent behind him.
Jump to a position:
Wide receiver | Defensive back
More position tiers:
QB, TE, OL | RB, off-ball LB
Wide receivers
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: None
This is another position in which true top-level stars usually don't make it to free agency. I probably would have put Tee Higgins in this tier before the Bengals franchise-tagged him last week.
The best wide receivers in the prime of their careers to hit the open market over the past decade are Sammy Watkins (2018), Amari Cooper (2020) and Chris Godwin (2022). The latter two ended up re-signing with their original teams.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: None
Buccaneers star Mike Evans was in this tier, but he re-signed with Tampa Bay on Monday morning. Here's what Barnwell wrote about Evans' outlook:
Evans might come close to the top tier. You already know about his 1,000-yard streak, and he has missed just two games because of injury in four seasons. And after narrowly topping the 1,000-yard mark in 2020 and 2021 and needing a spectacular Week 17 to get there in 2022, he racked up 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. Drops are the only established flaw in Evans' game; the nine he had in 2023 were second to only Tyreek Hill. (Evans makes up for it in part by not fumbling; he hasn't put the ball on the ground after the catch since 2018.)
Subscribe: "The Bill Barnwell Show"
It's typically a bad bet to count on wide receivers after they turn 30, but Evans has been staggeringly consistent. Organizations will look at his age and project the 6-foot-5 wideout to decline over the course of his next deal, but that decline might be more graceful than it is for others. Then again, Julio Jones was a Pro Bowler with a 1,393-yard season at age 30 and a cap casualty by the Titans two years later.
It's rare for a free agent in his 30s to get three guaranteed years on a new deal, with Kirk Cousins and Von Miller as exceptions. Evans' camp will push for a third year that's at least partially guaranteed; when you consider his run of success, don't be surprised if he finds a few teams willing to go there. That could mean something close to $60 million in guarantees at signing. (Note: Evans agreed to a two-year, $52 million contract on Monday morning that includes $35 million guaranteed.)
Average annual salary projection: $24-26 million per season
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Marquise Brown, Cardinals; Michael Pittman Jr., Colts; Calvin Ridley, Jaguars
Possible cap casualties: Tyler Lockett, Seahawks; Mike Williams, Chargers
While Evans has stayed consistent and productive with a wide variety of quarterbacks over his career, the free agents in this tier have struggled to achieve similar success. Ridley spent a year and a half out of football after being suspended for gambling on games. His debut season with the Jags in 2023 was a mixed bag, as he racked up 92 yards and a touchdown in the first half of Week 1, then barely topped that figure over the next three weeks combined. He had four 100-plus-yard games, but nine of his 17 games produced 40 yards or fewer. He's now 29, so there's a three-year gap between Ridley and some of the other wideouts in this tier. If the inconsistency with Ridley was a product of Jacksonville's offense, the potential of that 1,374-yard season from 2020 will still appeal to teams needing a true top receiver.
Brown is a lesson in projection. He spent the first three years of his career in a run-first Ravens offense, then was traded to the Cardinals. Over the first six weeks of 2022, he posted a line that prorates to 122 catches for 1,374 yards and eight touchdowns over a full season. He then sustained a fractured foot, and by the time he returned, he got one more game with Kyler Murray before the quarterback tore his right ACL. In 2023, they got three games together before Brown suffered a heel injury that ruined the end of his season.
I don't think Brown will ever turn into a complete wide receiver -- and injuries have been a nagging problem throughout his career -- but he has legitimate speed and won't turn 27 until June. He's not going to be a No. 1 wide receiver, but he could produce more than you might expect if given the No. 2 role in the right offense.
Pittman is a unique player in that he mostly lines up outside (65% of the time last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats) but still averages 10.6 yards per reception, a figure you'd expect more from a slot receiver. He had a huge split in 2023 between his performance when split out wide (2.6 yards per route run, an excellent figure) and in the slot (1.0, abysmal for a receiver). In 2022, he was more effective in the slot than out wide, so this hasn't been a trend. Pittman's size plays up for any quarterback, but I'd like to see him get a multiyear run with the same passer to get to the next level. The Colts already have said they'll bring him back, either on a new deal or via the $21.8 million franchise tag.
Lockett and Williams can still play, but their teams have other options and cap concerns. Williams is coming off a torn left ACL and has a $32.5 million cap hit in the final year of his deal. Quentin Johnston, a first-rounder last year, is not ready to take over for Williams, but the Chargers might draft another wide receiver at No. 5 and probably have to choose between Williams and Keenan Allen. Lockett has a team-high $27.8 million cap hit, and the Seahawks could move Jaxon Smith-Njigba into two-wide sets alongside DK Metcalf. Lockett averaged 1.7 yards per route run last year, his worst mark since 2017.
This tier and the ones below are also going to be impacted by the 2024 draft class, which is full of talented wide receivers. Evans will still get paid, but given the disparity in salary between veterans in free agency and Day 2/Day 3 picks on rookie deals, there's a fair number of teams likely to prefer taking their chances with a younger player. That's going to hurt the market for players who aren't seen as something close to sure things in free agency.
Average annual salary projection: $12-16 million per season
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Odell Beckham Jr., Ravens; Tyler Boyd, Bengals; Gabe Davis, Bills; Darnell Mooney, Bears; Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs
Possible cap casualties: Michael Gallup, Cowboys; Allen Lazard, Jets; Michael Thomas, Saints
Beckham's one-year deal with the Ravens ended up producing a different sort of season than what we've seen from the former Giants standout in previous years. He averaged a career-high 16.1 yards per reception, but Baltimore cut back heavily on his usage. He played just about every snap in Week 1 and during the first half of Week 2, then missed all of the second half and the next two games with an ankle injury. From that point forward, the Ravens played him on about 45% of the offensive snaps. I'm not sure he's more than a rotational player at this point.
Mooney looked to be on pace to become a star after a 1,055-yard season in 2021, but he racked up 907 combined yards over the past two seasons. Some of that is a product of playing in a run-heavy Chicago offense, but Mooney averaged 0.9 yards per route run last season. That ranked 80th out of 96 wide receivers (ahead of Valdes-Scantling and Lazard, but not many others). The 26-year-old is probably looking at a one-year deal to reestablish his value.
Davis went to bat for himself in tweeting out a series of stats pointing toward his explosiveness when catching the ball, but he was never able to command a significant target share in Buffalo. His style of play will make it hard to draw lots of passes; over the past four seasons, he was targeted on just 16.6% of his routes, which ranks 63rd out of the 76 wideouts with at least 1,000 targets over that span. The only guy below him to earn a significant deal in free agency is Valdes-Scantling, who serves as a pretty good comp for Davis. He's a deep threat and little else.
Average annual salary projection: $5-9 million per season
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Jamal Agnew, Jaguars; Noah Brown, Texans; DJ Chark, Panthers; Devin Duvernay, Ravens; Mecole Hardman, Chiefs; K.J. Osborn, Vikings; Josh Reynolds, Lions; Curtis Samuel, Commanders
Possible cap casualties: Hunter Renfrow, Raiders; Robert Woods, Texans
When you get to this tier, you're looking for wideouts who do something else reasonably well beyond receiving to justify their paychecks. Agnew and Duvernay are good returners. Reynolds and Woods are valuable blockers. Hardman and Samuel have been useful gadget players at some point during their careers. That's the sort of stuff that makes it easier to keep a veteran on a roster as the third or fourth wide receiver.
The exceptions are players who have been useful receivers in the recent past. Chark hasn't looked the same since fracturing his left ankle with the Jags in 2021, but he put up some good numbers for the Lions at the end of 2022. Renfrow had a 1,038-yard season in 2021 before falling victim to the Josh McDaniels era in Las Vegas. Osborn quietly has been an effective third wideout when given the opportunity in Minnesota. Brown had 153- and 172-yard games for the Texans last season and played special teams during his time with the Cowboys (2017 to '22).
Average annual salary projection: $2-5 million per season
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spots
Free agents: Braxton Berrios, Dolphins; Kendrick Bourne, Patriots; Miles Boykin, Steelers; Equanimeous St. Brown, Bears; Parris Campbell, Giants; Chase Claypool, Dolphins; Chris Conley, 49ers; Mack Hollins, Falcons; Richie James, Chiefs; Van Jefferson, Falcons; Ray-Ray McCloud, 49ers; Isaiah McKenzie, Colts; Chris Moore, Titans; Donovan Peoples-Jones, Lions; Trent Sherfield, Bills; Quez Watkins, Eagles; Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Titans; Cedrick Wilson, Dolphins; Olamide Zaccheaus, Eagles
Possible cap casualties: Russell Gage, Buccaneers; Deonte Harty, Bills; Tim Patrick, Broncos; Allen Robinson, Steelers
Some of the most notable names here haven't been healthy. Patrick has missed the past two seasons with a torn ACL and then a torn Achilles. Gage tore a patella in training camp and was sidelined for the entire season. There's no way they'll be back at their current cap figures. Neither will Robinson, who has a $10 million unguaranteed salary and hasn't looked good in three years. He might be finished.
Claypool could be right behind him. An ill-fated stint with the Bears ended with him being dumped on the Dolphins for a swap of late-round picks. He proceeded to run a total of 22 routes over his nine games with Miami. I'd be surprised if the 25-year-old wasn't given another opportunity -- there are only so many 6-foot-4, 240-pound wideouts with his speed out there -- but there's nothing in his performances over the past two seasons suggesting he's an NFL-caliber wideout.
Average annual salary projection: $1 million per season
Restricted free agents: Greg Dortch, Cardinals; Trenton Irwin, Bengals; Jauan Jennings, 49ers; Rashid Shaheed, Saints; Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Vikings
There are some fun players here. Shaheed has been a high-efficiency deep threat for the Saints, but he won't be going anywhere because he's an exclusive-rights free agent. Dortch, who has been productive when given a chance to play, is another ERFA.
Jennings is a traditional restricted free agent, and coming off a Super Bowl in which he both threw and caught touchdowns, I wonder whether there will be interest in the 2020 seventh-round pick. Jennings doesn't have great speed, but he's a big body (6-3) who can work the middle of the field and shrug off tackles after catching the ball.
With the 49ers committed to big deals for multiple playmakers and expected to address Brandon Aiyuk's contract this offseason, there might not be much left in the cupboard for their third wide receiver. I'm not sure a team would be willing to give up a second-round pick for Jennings if the 49ers tender him as such, but there might be a scenario in which San Francisco trades him for a Day 3 pick.
Defensive backs
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: CB L'Jarius Sneed, Chiefs; S Antoine Winfield Jr., Buccaneers
Let's start with two young players who deserved to be considered among the best at their respective positions last season. Sneed was a shutdown cornerback against top wideouts for Steve Spagnuolo's Kansas City defense, which played man at one of the league's highest rates and asked him to cover players all around the field. The Chiefs already have suggested they'll use the franchise tag to extend their negotiating window with him, although that might end in a trade. The Chiefs used the tag on edge rusher Dee Ford in 2019 before trading him to the 49ers for a second-round pick.
Winfield filled up the stat sheet in 2023, racking up 6 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, 8 quarterback hits, 122 tackles and 3 interceptions. You can make a pretty exclusive group out of those numbers: He was the fourth player in NFL history to generate at least 5 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 100 tackles and 2 picks in a season, joining James Harrison, Jerrell Freeman and NaVorro Bowman. The other three players were linebackers, which speaks to Winfield's range; he lined up all over the place last season, serving both as a free safety, strong safety, slot corner and even the occasional snap as a linebacker.
The Bucs can franchise him at a reasonable price ($17.1 million), but they have a free agent class that includes Lavonte David, Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield, so they might want to use the tag elsewhere and/or keep their cap space open to try to retain as many outgoing free agents as possible. Some teams don't value safety as a premium position, while others will trade two first-round picks to acquire Jamal Adams. If Winfield is allowed to hit the market, I think he will find at least one team willing to make him the league's first $20 million-per-year safety.
Average annual salary projection: $22 million per year (cornerback), $20 million per year (safety)
Tim Hasselbeck explains why the Chiefs could struggle to bring back both the franchise-tagged L'Jarius Sneed and Chris Jones.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: S Kyle Dugger, Patriots; CB Jaylon Johnson, Bears; CB Xavien Howard, Dolphins
Dugger became a building block for a Patriots defense that was still quietly effective in Bill Belichick's final season; the Pats ranked first in points allowed per drive during the second half of the season, even without standouts Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez. Dugger's range and ability to thump near the line of scrimmage provided the few bursts of excitement Patriots fans have seen over the past two seasons. He also posted a career-low missed tackle rate last season.
The Pats have the league's most cap space heading into free agency, but they might not want to prioritize using that money on a safety. While Dugger played free safety more often in 2023 than he did in 2022, he's still probably best around the line of scrimmage.
After a promising rookie season, a disappointing sophomore campaign and an injury-hit 2022, Johnson put together an excellent contract year for Chicago. He allowed a 50.9 passer rating in coverage, which ranked third among cornerbacks, behind Derek Stingley Jr. and Martin Emerson Jr. He did that while playing behind a pass rush that wasn't good for most of the year, and at 24, he's one of the youngest free agents in this class.
There are also reasons to be concerned. Johnson played in one of the league's most zone-heavy schemes, which might make it tough for his performance to translate to more man-focused coverages. He had just one interception through his first three seasons before nabbing four picks in 2023. And even in this breakout campaign, he missed three games and more than half of two other games with injuries; he has missed 15 of 68 possible games over his four-year career with various knocks. Johnson is one of the higher risk/reward options available in free agency.
Howard, meanwhile, will want to find a defense that moves him around more often. Stuck on one side of the field in Vic Fangio's Miami defense, the four-time Pro Bowler wasn't able to impact games the way he had in previous years. Miami's Week 4 loss to the Bills was a classic example, with Jalen Ramsey injured and Buffalo picking apart the cornerbacks on the right side of the defense, while Howard languished on the left side.
Howard's calling card has been takeaways, and after having 15 combined interceptions in 2020 and 2021, the Dolphins ripped up his contract and gave him a brand new deal. He had just two picks over the ensuing two seasons. He can still be an upper-echelon cornerback, but he also might not find a huge market. Teams are wary of cornerbacks after they turn 30, and he battled a foot injury a year ago. Remember that Ramsey, who was two years younger and didn't have the same recent injury concerns, had a much less significant trade market than many would have expected last offseason. Howard, who turns 31 this summer, might not be able to land a significant multiyear guarantee.
Average annual salary projection: $14-18 million per year
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: CB Chidobe Awuzie, Bengals; S Julian Blackmon, Colts; S Kam Curl, Commanders; CB/S C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Lions; CB Stephon Gilmore, Cowboys; S Micah Hyde, Bills; CB Adoree' Jackson, Giants; CB Jourdan Lewis, Cowboys; S Xavier McKinney, Giants; CB Kenny Moore II, Colts; S Jordan Whitehead, Jets; CB Ahkello Witherspoon, Rams
Possible cap casualties: S Jamal Adams, Seahawks; CB Jaire Alexander, Packers; S Quandre Diggs, Seahawks
There are lots of options here. Some of the bigger names have had their career paths affected by injuries. Adams has missed 30 games over the past three seasons and has a $26.9 million cap hit in 2024. It's easy to imagine him as a fun fit in Mike Macdonald's defense in Seattle, but that's an exorbitant price tag for the 28-year-old given his injury history. Alexander missed 13 games in 2021 and 10 more in 2023 with his own injuries. He allowed a 113.4 passer rating in coverage last season. Plus, he was suspended after making the curious decision to go into business for himself during the coin toss in the Packers' game against the Panthers. Hyde is 33 and battled neck and hamstring injuries over the past two seasons. Awuzie was playing at an All-Pro level in 2022 before tearing an ACL and didn't return to a full-time role until late in 2023.
The younger players are probably going to be more compelling for teams in terms of multiyear deals, especially at safety. Blackmon allowed just a 46.6 passer rating in coverage and dropped his missed tackle rate from 15.3% to 4.3%. McKinney played every single defensive snap for the Giants and has exhibited the versatility to play all over the field, making it easier for coordinators to mask their post-snap intentions. Whitehead had four picks and nine pass breakups in a career season, including three in the Jets' Week 1 win over the Bills.
At corner, Witherspoon signed with the Rams for $1 million and allowed a 75.7 passer rating in coverage. At 6-foot-3, he has rare measurables, but can he repeat his career year? I'll be intrigued to see if new Atlanta coach Raheem Morris pursues a reunion with his former Rams corner. Gilmore still played at a high level last season, although he was one of the many Cowboys to have a brutal day in the season-ending loss to the Packers. Lewis and Moore have been two of the better slot corners in the league at their best. Gardner-Johnson can play slot corner and safety, although he didn't have a huge free agent market last year and then missed most of the season with a torn pectoral muscle. There might be bargains in this tier if teams are willing to be patient.
Average annual salary projection: $10-14 million per year (cornerback), $8-12 million per year (safety)
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: CB Myles Bryant, Patriots; S Kevin Byard, Eagles; CB Michael Davis, Chargers; S Mike Edwards, Chiefs; S Jordan Fuller, Rams; CB Kristian Fulton, Titans; S Tashaun Gipson, 49ers; S Alohi Gilman, Chargers; S Jayron Kearse, Cowboys; S Darnell Savage, Packers; S Geno Stone, Ravens; CB Levi Wallace, Steelers
Here's where a team is going to find a bargain, especially if a lot of the Tier 3 defensive backs get big deals. There are some intriguing players here who might be this year's Witherspoon and break out if given a chance to start all season on the right team.
Davis was a solid starter for most of his time in Los Angeles before losing his starting job in 2022, regaining it after J.C. Jackson got hurt then struggling mightily in 2023. Fulton looked on the path to becoming a Pro Bowl-caliber corner in 2021 and then couldn't stay healthy or repeat that level regularly. Savage looked like a difference-maker earlier in his career before falling off a cliff; he has been everything from an every-down player to a benched special-teamer over the past two seasons.
I wonder whether teams will be more interested in the guys who played their best football in 2023. Bryant saw steady snaps for the Patriots at cornerback, although his coverage numbers weren't impressive. He can also contribute on returns. Fuller returned from a 2022 ruined by injury and did a solid job at free safety for a resurgent Rams defense. Gilman and Stone moved into the starting lineup and held their own, albeit on defenses of different qualities. Edwards returned to the third safety role he played for most of his time in Tampa on a one-year deal with the Chiefs, but after Bryan Cook got hurt, the 27-year-old held his own as an every-down safety through Kansas City's Super Bowl run.
I'd want to take a shot on the players who have shown higher ceilings during their rookie deals, but there's something to be said for a player whose most recent tape was his best.
Average annual salary projection: $6-8.5 million per year (cornerback), $4-6.5 million per year (safety)
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: S Jeremy Chinn, Panthers; S Terrell Edmunds, Titans; S Deshon Elliott, Dolphins; CB Kendall Fuller, Commanders; CB Dane Jackson, Bills; S Eddie Jackson, Bears; S Kareem Jackson, Texans; CB Steven Nelson, Texans; CB Keisean Nixon, Packers; CB Jeff Okudah, Falcons; S Jonathan Owens, Packers; S Jeremy Reaves, Commanders; CB Rock Ya-Sin, Ravens
Possible cap casualties: CB/S Avonte Maddox, Eagles; S Nick Scott, Bengals
This is the range in which we're looking at fourth cornerbacks and third safeties; those guys typically need to either have starter upside or play special teams to survive in the league. In the case of Nixon and Reaves, their primary impact is going to be as valuable special-teamers as opposed to defensive players, although Nixon did play regularly as a cornerback for the Packers last season.
It's going to be tough for the veterans on this list, several of whom just finished up big deals or who will have to take pay cuts from what they made a year ago. Fuller, Ya-Sin and Eddie Jackson still have something to offer, but they're probably not stepping into Week 1 starting roles the way they might have in previous seasons. Some vets are happy to call it a day at that point. Others hang on. Kareem Jackson is seemingly going to be out there committing personal fouls until the league stops letting him onto the field.
There are also players in this tier who appeared to be on the path to stardom years ago. Chinn was second in the Defensive Rookie of the Year balloting in 2020 and then never seemed to launch. He wasn't a regular most of the Panthers' 2023 season, even when he was healthy. Okudah was the No. 3 overall pick in that 2020 draft and was quickly befallen by Matt Patricia and a torn Achilles in consecutive seasons in Detroit. Okudah didn't lock down a role in a desperate Lions secondary in 2022 and was benched late in the 2023 season by the Falcons. It appears Chinn and Okudah need a fresh start somewhere else.
Average annual salary projection: $2-4 million per year (cornerback), $1.5-3 million per year (safety)
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spots
Free agents: S Adrian Amos, Texans; CB Eli Apple, Dolphins; S Chuck Clark, Jets; CB Ronald Darby, Ravens; S Ashtyn Davis, Jets; CB Shaq Griffin, Panthers; CB Bryce Hall, Jets; CB Tre Herndon, Jaguars; S Will Harris, Lions; CB J.C. Jackson, Patriots; S John Johnson, Rams; S Brandon Jones, Dolphins; S P.J. Locke, Broncos; CB Arthur Maulet, Ravens; CB/S Jalen Mills, Patriots; CB Fabian Moreau, Broncos; CB Emmanuel Moseley, Lions; CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, Titans; CB Isaiah Oliver, 49ers; S Taylor Rapp, Bills; CB Chandon Sullivan, Steelers; CB Kindle Vildor, Lions; S Tracy Walker, Lions; S K'Von Wallace, Titans; CB Isaac Yiadom, Saints
This is a lot of football players, many of whom are going to be either trying to catch on with old coaches in new places or waiting to fill a void when someone gets injured during training camp. Veterans such as Apple, Darby and Johnson were on their couches for most of last summer but on the field by the time the playoffs rolled around. Vildor was on the Titans' and Eagles' rosters in 2023 before making it to the Lions, where he didn't make his debut until Week 14. He was an every-down corner by Week 17 and into the postseason, when he famously had a Brock Purdy pass bounce off his helmet and into the hands of Brandon Aiyuk to help fuel a 49ers comeback.
I have my favorites. Apple has been a meme for several years now, but he keeps finding a way to end up as a starting cornerback on a playoff team, season after season. Maulet is a good special-teamer and was a wildly successful slot blitzer in Baltimore last season. Johnson was a star earlier in his career with the Rams and solidified their defense after entering the starting lineup at midseason in 2023.
Good coaches will find the right way to use these guys in an appropriate role; lesser coaches will try to plug them in as replacements for injured or disappointing starters with mixed results.
Average annual salary projection: $1-2 million per year
Restricted free agents: CB Jerry Jacobs, Lions; CB Mike Jackson, Seahawks
Jacobs was a starter most of the season with the Lions before suffering a hamstring injury, which limited him to one defensive snap from Week 15 onward. Vildor took over as the starting corner from that point forward.
Jackson was a pleasant surprise as a full-season starter for the Seahawks in 2022, but Tre Brown and Devon Witherspoon took snaps away from him in 2023. He would go from riding the bench one week to playing the majority of the snaps the next, then back to the bench shortly thereafter. A steadier diet of playing time might help.