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ESPN Writer- Matt Bowen is a fantasy football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent multiple years on "NFL Matchup." After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo over seven seasons.
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ESPN Analytics- Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on "ESPN Bet Live" and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
Super Bowl LVIII is here, with the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs facing off in Las Vegas on Sunday night (6:30 p.m. ET on CBS). We dug deep into the matchup from both statistical and game-planning standpoints to see where each team has an edge.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder pored through the numbers to find five trends and potential questions based on what the stats say. He leaned heavily on advanced numbers, including data from NFL Next Gen Stats and ESPN's video tracking. Then NFL analyst Matt Bowen ran through each team's tape to identify five tendencies and advantages, factoring in personnel matchups, scheme and coaching approaches. And finally, Seth and Matt put all of that to use and each made two predictions for the Super Bowl.
Can the 49ers beat the Chiefs' press coverage? Will Kansas City eat up San Francisco's zone coverage? Here are 10 trends and tendencies to watch heading into the final game of the 2023 season -- and what they might mean for the winner.
Note: All stats include both the regular season and playoffs unless otherwise stated.
Jump to:
What the stats say | What the tape says
Predictions for Super Bowl LVIII
Walder: Five key things I see in the numbers
Does the Chiefs' press coverage play into the 49ers' hands?
The Chiefs use press coverage more than any team in the league, with both outside corners pressing on 42% of opponent dropbacks, per NFL Next Gen Stats. No other team is over 35%. But that should suit the 49ers just fine.
San Francisco leads the NFL in estimated points added per dropback at 0.24 through the regular season and playoffs, and when facing press coverage from both outside corners, that number balloons all the way to 0.5 -- also the best in the league. Why? Well, one reason is that San Francisco has plenty of playmakers beyond the wide receiver position. The yards per route run for both running back Christian McCaffrey (1.5 to 1.9) and tight end George Kittle (2.5 to 3.4) rise when opponents play press coverage.
Is San Francisco's OL held up by one player?
The 49ers' pass protection is just OK, ranking 15th in pass block win rate, including their two playoff games. But that team-level number doesn't tell the whole story, because Trent Williams brings that number up with his 96% PBWR, first among all offensive tackles.
While Williams locks down the left tackle spot, there are areas of weakness for the 49ers. Left guard Aaron Banks has an 89% PBWR (51st of 64 guards) and right tackle Colton McKivitz is at 86% (45th of 68 tackles). That should present opportunities for Chiefs pass-rushers such as defensive end George Karlaftis -- who often plays opposite the right tackle -- and defensive tackle Chris Jones.
Can the 49ers beat the Chiefs' Cover 0?
This is a really small sample, but I can't help but notice the numbers here. No team runs Cover 0 more than the Chiefs, who do it 7% of the time. And the 49ers when they have faced Cover 0 this season? They have recorded 0.99 EPA per play. To translate, that means every time an opponent ran Cover 0 against them this season, the 49ers increased their scoring margin by essentially an entire point on average.
I mentioned the sample size, and it does matter; the Niners have only seen Cover 0 coverage 17 times since Week 1. That being said, the 49ers have recorded at least 0.3 EPA per dropback -- higher than San Francisco's overall 0.24 EPA per dropback this season -- against Cover 0 in each of the past four seasons.
Will either team be more aggressive on fourth down?
Fourth-down calls and game management represent weaknesses for both the 49ers' Kyle Shanahan and the Chiefs' Andy Reid, otherwise outstanding coaches. The 49ers have the worst "non-obvious error rate" on fourth downs this season, according to ESPN's decision analysis. By our model, they have made an error on 28% of non-obvious fourth-down go-or-no-go decisions. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have sacrificed the most total win probability on fourth-down errors, throwing away a third of a win over the course of the season.
If either Shanahan or Reid can make fewer errors on fourth-down decisions -- remembering they have either the best quarterback or best offense on the planet and can use all four downs -- they would gain an advantage in the Super Bowl.
Which struggling run defense is in more trouble?
Neither team has a particularly great run defense. They both rank outside the top 20 in yards allowed per rush and defensive rush EPA. For the 49ers, it's not really a problem against a Chiefs offense that has averaged minus-0.07 EPA per designed carry. But a weak Kansas City run defense against the 49ers seems far from ideal. San Francisco averages 0.07 EPA per play when running the ball, second-best in the NFL.
You might point to the AFC Championship Game in the Chiefs' defense, as Baltimore managed just 81 rushing yards despite leading the league with 156.4 rushing yards per game this season. But the Ravens didn't really run the ball two weeks ago -- they had 16 carries, and eight came from quarterback Lamar Jackson. And it wasn't because the Chiefs stacked the box. Baltimore had one running back carry on 35 snaps where the Chiefs had six or fewer defenders in the box. I'm guessing the 49ers will take a different tact, especially with McCaffrey in the backfield.
Bowen: Five key things I see on the tape
Will Nick Bosa get his ideal matchup?
The 49ers' star defensive end enters the Super Bowl with 12.5 sacks and 65 pressures. He's the best speed-to-power pass-rusher in the league, and 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks can scheme one-on-ones for him using loaded fronts and five-man surfaces.
Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor has a pass block win rate of 91% this season (13th among tackles) but has given up 12 sacks. In passing situations, I see this as a critical matchup on Sunday night. Bosa's ability to disrupt the pocket will impact how Wilks sets his coverages against Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Can Brock Purdy beat the Chiefs' pressure schemes?
Purdy has been really good against the blitz this season, with an 84.6 QBR and 14 touchdown passes when opposing defenses send five or more rushers. The 49ers quarterback is a true distributor against pressure, quickly finding outlets.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will dial up heat on Sunday night. That's part of their defensive identity, evidenced by their 32% blitz rate and 52 snaps of Cover 0 (all-out blitz) this season. Yes, I expect Shanahan to have a call sheet loaded with blitz answers, especially on third down. But Spagnuolo can disguise his pressures with second- and third-level blitzers off late movement, so Purdy will be forced to read it out quickly after the post-snap picture changes.
Will the Chiefs keep running out of 12 and 13 personnel?
The Chiefs have deployed more multiple-TE sets to run the ball in the postseason, and I believe we'll see a similar script against the 49ers. In Kansas City's three playoff wins, running back Isiah Pacheco logged 36 carries with two or three tight ends on the field, averaging 4.4 yards per rush.
Look for Reid to keep scheming the edges, with counters that kick out the defensive ends or toss concepts that create positive angles to pin Bosa and Chase Young to the inside. This would allow the Chiefs to attack downhill or push the ball to the perimeter, where the 49ers have had run defense issues during the playoffs. San Francisco has allowed 6.5 yards per carry to 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs) or 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs) in the postseason.
Does the 49ers' zone-heavy approach open the door for Mahomes?
Mahomes has completed 67.9% of his throws and posted a 90 QBR against zone coverage in the playoffs. You'll see leveled concepts that create schemed voids and high-to-low reads, and tight end Travis Kelce can find open grass, of course. This sets up well for Mahomes against a 49ers defense that has played zone on 67.1% of opponent dropbacks, sixth-most in the NFL.
I'm curious how Wilks will adjust here, but I could see the Niners potentially using more late rotation to two-deep or playing interior match coverage to limit Mahomes.
Could McCaffrey's pass-game deployment be a factor?
McCaffrey caught 11 of 17 targets over the Niners' pair of playoff wins, and you can bet he will again be an underneath outlet for Purdy when the Chiefs drop into Cover 2. San Francisco has to take the throws that are available there.
But what about Shanahan's concepts where McCaffrey is a primary target? The 49ers running back can be deployed on backfield releases to beat Kansas City's pressure or gain matchup advantages on choice/wheel routes. And when he is flexed from the formation, McCaffrey can get free access off the ball versus man coverage; Shanahan will scheme that up with his alignment. I think McCaffrey's usage as a receiver will allow the 49ers to extend drives and create explosive plays opportunities.
Our predictions for how things will play out
The Chiefs and 49ers will combine for two or fewer sacks
Sure, Bosa's presence makes me think twice about this prediction, but if I'm confident in one thing, it's Mahomes' ability to avoid sacks. His 3.7% sack rate is second-best in the NFL this season, and his career rate is 3.8%. Though not on Mahomes' level in this area, Purdy is better than average in this department, too. His sack rate of 5.5% ranks 10th, and the Chiefs' pass-rushers outside of Jones aren't as dominant. -- Walder
Marquez Valdes-Scantling will catch a deep ball in a critical moment
The deep-threat receiver had at least one catch for 30 or more yards in each of the Chiefs' two playoff games. With that vertical field-stretching ability, Reid can isolate Valdes-Scantling on the perimeter -- or against a deep-half safety -- to create a difference-making play down the field on Sunday night. -- Bowen
McCaffrey will have at least 60 receiving yards
Facing a press- and blitz-heavy Chiefs defense, McCaffrey should play an even larger role than usual in the 49ers' passing game. His receiving yardage prop is 33.5 right now, he has averaged 35.3 this season (second among RBs) and has only clipped 60 receiving yards three times, so this is bolder than it sounds. -- Walder
Kittle will score a touchdown
The 49ers tight end has seven touchdown receptions this season, including the playoffs. And on Sunday night, I would look for him on plays out of the high red zone, with Shanahan setting Purdy up to target Cover 2 looks with a seam ball to split the Chiefs' safeties. -- Bowen