Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots parted ways after 24 seasons on Thursday, ending weeks of speculation about the future of the legendary coach and the team he led to six Super Bowl titles.
Now comes what has the potential to be the most unprecedented job search in the history of the league. Never has a coach with such a track record been available on the open market. Belichick, still revered throughout the league, is widely believed to be motivated not only to prove he can win somewhere other than New England, but also to break Don Shula's NFL record of 347 career wins (Belichick currently sits at 333).
But Belichick's style is not for everyone, and any NFL team that considers hiring him will have to first address a range of questions. Is he content to simply be the head coach, or would Belichick want a high degree of personnel control? (On that topic, Belichick suggested at a Monday video conference he was open to shared responsibilities around personnel.)
Would hiring Belichick be a short-term fix? Belichick will turn 72 before the 2024 season starts, which would make him the oldest NFL head coach hired to a new job and the fifth-oldest in league history. How long does he want to keep going?
Resolve those questions and suitors will face others that cannot be answered as easily. How much meaning do you assign to the 12-22 record of the past two seasons or a 29-38 record without a playoff win in the post-Tom Brady era in New England? Can Belichick win another Super Bowl or two given the right situation or are there underlying issues that would make winning at a high level a challenge?
ESPN discussed those topics with coaches and executives around the league and sized up the fit for Belichick with each of the current NFL vacancies:
The message from some NFL executives was unequivocal: If you have a chance to hire an all-timer in the history of the coaching profession, you take it.
"I don't understand how Bill Belichick could not be the hottest candidate," a high-ranking personnel evaluator said. "I haven't seen him lose any passion or steam, he still has a deep understanding of the modernized game and details."
Other NFL observers noted a well-respected coach leaving an imprint on a new franchise is not without precedent. The reigning Super Bowl-winning coach, who was in his mid-50s when he got his second NFL shot, is perhaps a proxy for what Belichick could accomplish elsewhere.
"He can have an Andy Reid-type impact on a new team, similar to when Reid went from Philadelphia to Kansas City," an AFC personnel official said. "Assuming he's still got the energy to do it, he's about as good of a coach as you can hire. Knows what it takes to win."
Belichick's prospects will of course depend on the profile of coach an owner desires. While Belichick is as proven as any candidate could be, any organization seeking a new-school approach is unlikely to look his way -- at least initially.
"I don't think teams will be clamoring for Belichick," one NFC exec said. "Might be wrong but I'm skeptical. He's older and things got stale in New England. It would take a pretty desperate owner, in my opinion."
That said, as another front office figure noted, the number of proven candidates in this cycle will not be unlimited.
"[Lions offensive coordinator] Ben Johnson will be high on teams' lists. [Cowboys defensive coordinator] Dan Quinn probably will be. After that, it's a pretty uneven field. That's where maybe Belichick can appeal to a team that needs a coach to get the best out of underachieving players."
On that point, Belichick was undeniably not at his best in guiding the 2023 New England Patriots, who finished tied for the second-worst record in the NFL at 4-13. The Pats were 31st in offense per ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) amid well-chronicled issues with quarterback play. The defense, Belichick's longtime calling card, was fourth in FPI, however. Any leadership group that hired Belichick would have to feel comfortable with his plan on both sides of the ball and be able to write off this season's Pats experience as an anomaly.
"They've lost a ton of close games, and if they had even a functional offense they would probably have seven or eight wins," a high-ranking personnel evaluator said earlier this season.
A major theme among all of those ESPN canvassed was the notion of control. Belichick has owned final say on personnel and other football-related staffing matters throughout his tenure with New England. Is there a world in which he would be willing to relinquish that control? Some within the league believe it will be necessary if Belichick wishes to keep coaching.
"As a coach he's at the top -- as a GM he's at the bottom (of the list of candidates), and he will want to do both so that's tough," an AFC personnel man said. "I do think that's a factor teams could be turned off by. I can't imagine he doesn't want to do everything."
"Belichick has been around long enough to know he needs a strong support system," another longtime exec said. "Would be curious to see how he evolves, or if he's willing. It's still unclear how much overriding he really [did] in New England. They are known to scout players differently than other teams."
To be sure, Belichick has worked directly with personnel execs Dave Ziegler and Matt Groh in recent years and seemed to have good working relationships with them. Other names from his past, who graduated to other jobs within the league after their experience in New England, could be candidates for a power-sharing setup. But is there a GM out there who could be expected to work as a true collaborator with Belichick?
"I think, at this stage, he would need a familiarity -- one of his past lieutenants like Scott Pioli or Thomas Dimitroff," an NFC executive said. "Developing a working relationship with someone new could take some time. Not that it can't be done, but Bill is probably set in his ways at this stage."
An uncomfortable but unquestionably important factor for prospective Belichick suitors will be the coach's age. At 71, Belichick is already the fifth-oldest person to coach a game in NFL history according to the Elias Sports Bureau, behind Romeo Crennel, George Halas, Marv Levy and Pete Carroll. Excluding interims, Belichick would be the oldest at the time of their first game with a new team -- by quite a distance. Bruce Arians, 66 years old when he coached his first game with the Bucs, currently holds that distinction. With that in mind, how long should teams expect Belichick to coach?
"My guess is three to five years, depending on health," an AFC executive said. "It's hard to truly know how long he wants to do it, but that will be a determining factor. The new team will probably want a somewhat loose assurance that he can do it well into his mid-70s."
Would Belichick be expected to identify a successor in his new home?
"True succession plans are always a bit awkward to me -- especially if things go south and you don't win, then the guy in-house is sort of just standing around. And it's hard to put stipulations in contracts that this guy has to replace you. Belichick's new team might just need to wait it out and figure there are good candidates every year."
Of course, the notion of which teams want Belichick is not the only consideration. There's also the teams and owners for which Belichick would consider working. Logic suggests a massive rebuild would be of less interest as Belichick chases the all-time wins record. A good situation -- with a stable QB in place -- is likely preferable.
"I'd be surprised if he goes to a place with a young quarterback -- Carolina doesn't really work, and I don't think [owner David] Tepper wants to go that route anyway," an NFC personnel man said.
"Take a team like the Chargers -- they've got the QB, a defense with talent but have underachieved overall -- that's perfect for him."
A closer look at current NFL vacancies, and how Belichick might fit into the hiring picture:
Atlanta Falcons
Belichick fits talented, underachieving teams such as the Falcons, who are the proverbial "quarterback away." He would have an owner in Arthur Blank who doesn't meddle in the day-to-day operation. Atlanta's recent setup is 50-50 personnel split with head coach and GM Terry Fontenot, which Belichick might not embrace.
Carolina Panthers
Might be the least likely fit, as owner David Tepper and Belichick do not seem like a match. Carolina seems intrigued by the idea of a young offensive head coach and general manager with an analytical or salary cap background. Plus, the Panthers' roster is at least a year away.
Las Vegas Raiders
Hard to imagine Raiders owner Mark Davis seeking out the Patriot Way after the Josh McDaniels debacle. Plus, if minority owner Tom Brady is involved in the search, those two might not be eager to share an employer once again. But Belichick could win there. And the connection between Bill Parcells (Belichick's old boss) and Davis runs deep, which could help Belichick's chances.
Los Angeles Chargers
Similar setup to Atlanta as a talented yet underachieving team, only the Chargers have a quarterback in Justin Herbert. The Chargers likely need a cap overhaul, which Belichick can navigate. It's uncertain whether the Spanos family would relinquish control to Belichick's liking. But a decent fit overall.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle offers quality talent on both sides of the ball. Belichick would likely improve the league's 30th-ranked defense. This is a fit from an on-field standpoint. But it wouldn't surprise if the Seahawks go younger after moving on from 72-year-old Pete Carroll, implementing fresh ideas under a fairly new owner in Jody Allen. It's perhaps notable that Belichick succeeded Carroll (who is staying in Seattle in an advisory role) as New England's head coach in 2000.
Tennessee Titans
This doesn't fit Tennessee's purposes at all, a rebuilding team looking for someone to coalesce with second-year general manager Ran Carthon. Exchanging Mike Vrabel for Belichick seems excessive. But he would make the Titans competitive.
Washington Commanders
Belichick is an Annapolis, Maryland, native who appreciates the D.C. area, and Washington football carries plenty of tradition that could appeal to him. The Commanders' ownership group led by Josh Harris is dedicated to finding a winning system. The franchise has much to offer, with nearly $80 million in cap space and five picks in the top 100 of April's draft, including the No. 2 pick. But will it look for a coach on the upswing of his career?