When a team gives up 70 points in a game, the defense is going to look extremely bad. But for the Denver Broncos' defense, it hasn't been just one bad game this NFL season.
They gave up 35 points in Week 2 to a Washington Commanders team that has otherwise averaged 18 points. Last Sunday, they let quarterback Justin Fields have the best passing game of his career, though they escaped with a 31-28 win over the Chicago Bears, who had 471 yards of offense after averaging 250 yards in their first three games.
Is this the worst any NFL defense has ever played in the first few games of the season?
To answer that question, we're going to look at the NFL's worst defensive starts over four games by DVOA, going back to 1981. This is not just a list of the teams that allowed the most points during the first month of the season. DVOA accounts for yards per play, consistency (success rate) and turnovers, with adjustments for the quality of your opponents. (Here's a more detailed explanation.)
Many of the 13 teams ranked below weren't particularly bad on defense the season before. For example, the Broncos ranked 13th in 2022. And a terrible four-game start didn't necessarily doom the teams on this list to a full season of horrible defensive play, as some ended up with a winning record and one even made the Super Bowl.
So where do the Broncos rank? And what might the rest of the season look like for them based on history? Here are the 13 teams with the worst defensive starts, starting with a recent -- and particularly interesting -- team. We'll show their records through those four games, along with a few other details, including where they finished in DVOA.
13. 2017 New England Patriots (2-2)
Through four games: 28.6% DVOA, allowed 32.0 points per game
Rest of season: minus-0.6% DVOA (14th), 14.0 PPG
Final record: 13-3
Draft position: No. 31 overall
That's right. When the Patriots were defending Super Bowl champions, they had a horrible defensive start to the season. New England had been ninth in defensive DVOA when they won it all in 2016 so this start was a real surprise.
It began with a 42-27 loss to Kansas City. The Patriots had to stop the Chiefs with 4:15 left, down 35-27, and instead they let Kareem Hunt run for 58 yards and allowed a 21-yard touchdown to Charcandrick West.
The Patriots were better in Week 2, allowing just 20 points to the Saints, although Drew Brees threw for 356 yards. In Week 3, New England scored a touchdown with 29 seconds left to beat Houston 36-33. Then in Week 4, the Pats fell to Carolina 33-30, with three touchdown passes and a touchdown run from Cam Newton.
Through four games, the Patriots allowed 7.3 net yards per play, nearly a full yard ahead of the No. 31 Saints and nearly 2 yards above the NFL average of 5.4. And then the Patriots figured it out. They were an average defense the rest of the season in terms of both DVOA and net yards per play (5.35), and they went back to the Super Bowl -- where the defense crumbled again.