The 2023 NFL season kicks off Thursday, Sept. 7, when the Detroit Lions visit the Kansas City Chiefs. Will the Chiefs go back to the Super Bowl? Which teams have the best offensive and defensive units? Which sleeper teams could make the push for the playoffs? To raise (or temper) expectations, I put together a complete breakdown of predictions and projections for the upcoming season.
My annual guide has everything you need to know for this season, including which teams are likely to score the most points, which defenses will allow the least and which X factors will decide the standings. I also stacked my team-by-team power rankings and unit grades, and made predictions for the playoffs and Super Bowl LVIII. Here's what to expect for the 2023 season, starting with what I consider the biggest storyline to follow.
Jump ahead to:
Schedule: Easiest | Toughest
Offense projections: Best | Worst
Defense projections: Best | Worst
X factors | Power rankings
Super Bowl pick | Unit rankings
The biggest storyline
Can anyone in the AFC overtake the Kansas City Chiefs?
It's not a stretch to argue that 11 of the NFL's top 13 teams are in the AFC. Three of those teams come from an AFC East division that includes Aaron Rodgers' New York Jets, a loaded Miami Dolphins defense and the three-time defending division champion Buffalo Bills. The AFC North division is also stacked, with much-improved Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers squads primed to push the Cincinnati Bengals. Add a healthy Los Angeles Chargers team, a Sean Payton-led Denver Broncos roster and the AFC South-favorite Jacksonville Jaguars, and there are more talented teams than available playoff spots (seven) in the AFC.
Oh, and if making the playoffs isn't enough of a challenge, these teams will also need to try to solve Patrick Mahomes and the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Kansas City is arguably better on paper now than it was one year ago, especially with several recent early-round draft picks ascending on the defensive side of the ball.
Easiest schedule
New Orleans Saints
Some teams will be better than expected (and vice versa), but it's hard not to look at the Saints' 2023 schedule and be astonished at how easy it looks. For starters, the NFC South is not daunting, with the Panthers (Bryce Young), Falcons (Desmond Ridder) and post-Tom Brady Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield) all in transition at quarterback.
It's a similar sentiment with the four games against the AFC South. The Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence, but the Colts (Anthony Richardson) and Texans (C.J. Stroud) will start rookies, and the Titans aren't as intimidating as usual. The Saints will also face a wide-open NFC North division that lacks an elite team and no longer includes quarterback Aaron Rodgers. As for unique games, the Saints face the Giants, Patriots and depleted Rams. For added perspective on the Saints' light slate, a look at the latest Caesars Sportsbook odds shows that none of the top eight Super Bowl favorites are on their docket this season.
The other NFC South teams -- Falcons (second easiest), Panthers (third) and Buccaneers (fifth) -- join the Saints in having light 2023 schedules. The Colts (fourth easiest) are set up with the lightest slate in the AFC.
Toughest schedule
New England Patriots
The Patriots project as the worst team in the aforementioned loaded AFC East. On top of six games against the Bills, Dolphins and Jets, the Patriots' schedule includes the NFC East and AFC West. That means showdowns with last season's Super Bowl teams (Eagles and Chiefs) and games against the potentially strong Cowboys, Giants, Chargers and Broncos. The Patriots' unique games include improved Steelers, Saints and Colts squads, too.
The Dolphins, Bills, Jets and Raiders round out the league's five toughest schedules, in that order, so the silver lining for New England is that the rest of the division will face similarly tough schedules.
Projected highest-scoring teams
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 498 points
The Chiefs top this category for the fifth consecutive season. My hidden skill seems to be projecting points scored by Kansas City's offense. In 2019, I had the Chiefs projected for 469, and they scored 451. In 2020, they were projected for 470 and scored 473. In 2021, it was 477 projected and 480 actual. And last season, I had them at 479 points, and they scored 496. That's a grand total of 1,895 projected and 1,900 actual. Coach Andy Reid and Mahomes are primed to push for 500 points again in 2023.
2. Philadelphia Eagles, 471 points
3. Cincinnati Bengals, 459 points
Projected lowest-scoring teams
1. Washington Commanders, 310 points
Washington has finished bottom-10 in scoring each of the past five seasons and will now turn to Sam Howell -- a 2022 fifth-round pick who attempted 19 passes as a rookie -- as its starting quarterback. Perhaps the Commanders have found a diamond in the rough (Howell has looked good during the preseason), but he's obviously an unknown, and the team's fallback plan is journeyman Jacoby Brissett. Also shaky along the line, this offense will hope to be bailed out by its terrific WR trio in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel (though McLaurin could miss some time to open the season while dealing with an injury).
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 311 points
3. Carolina Panthers, 323 points
Projected defenses to allow the fewest points
1. San Francisco 49ers, 332 points
The Niners' defense, which allowed a league-low 277 points last season, will return all seven defenders who played at least 700 snaps last season. That list includes 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa and star linebacker Fred Warner. The unit added some big-time firepower up front by signing Javon Hargrave away from the Eagles to team up with Arik Armstead. Cornerback and edge rusher depth are potential concerns, but this is an otherwise elite defense.
2. New Orleans Saints, 333 points
3. Miami Dolphins, 341 points
Projected defenses to allow the most points
1. Los Angeles Rams, 460 points
This Rams defense is the shakiest and most unproven I've seen on paper since entering this industry. Six defenders played 700-plus snaps for this team last season, and none remain on the roster. In fact, Ernest Jones (693) and Aaron Donald (593) are the only players remaining who played more than half the snaps. Despite all the departures, the Rams' top veteran replacements were John Johnson III and Ahkello Witherspoon, which means they'll rely on rookies and recent Day 3 fliers for a majority of their defensive snaps. It's hard to imagine this not being the league's worst defense ... and that's with superstar Donald in the fold.
2. Las Vegas Raiders, 459 points
3. Arizona Cardinals, 458 points
X factors: Make-or-break players who will decide the 2023 season
1. Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers finally got his trade out of Green Bay and then took a gigantic pay cut in New York. The Jets' roster may not be perfect (more on that in a bit), but it's good enough on both sides of the ball to contend with the league's top teams. The question is: Does Rodgers have anything left in the tank after a rough 2022 season that included his lowest QBR (41.3) since becoming a starting quarterback?
2. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp
Add a suspect offensive line and shaky receiver depth to the aforementioned Rams' defensive issues, and an overwhelming amount of pressure is on 35-year-old Stafford and 30-year-old Kupp (who is already battling a hamstring injury) to carry this team in 2023.
3. Young QBs (Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Kenny Pickett)
I'll group these four together:
Tagovailoa was terrific last season (third in QBR), but his string of concussions remain a concern and could make or break what is an otherwise loaded Miami roster.
Chicago upgraded its offensive line and pass-catchers, which leaves Fields without any excuses if he fails to make a leap.
Jones landed a four-year, $160 million contract despite the Giants ranking last in passing touchdowns over the past three seasons, and with their own OL and WR upgrades, it's on Jones to move the ball down the field this year.
Lastly, with a loaded defense and several offseason offensive upgrades, the Steelers are primed for a rebound -- but that will require a second-year leap from Pickett.
4. San Francisco 49ers quarterbacks
The Niners have a very good defense and an elite foursome of offensive playmakers, leaving offensive line and especially quarterback as the big determining factors in how this season will shake out. Week 1 starter Brock Purdy was terrific as a rookie, but he can't be considered a sure thing as a seventh-round pick with 233 career attempts. If not Purdy, can coach Kyle Shanahan work his magic and get the most out of Sam Darnold, who played well in six appearances for Carolina last season?
5. Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor
The aforementioned brewing battle in the AFC very well could come down to the smallest of margins, and one differentiator might be the offensive tackle position. Orlando Brown Jr. was terrific in two seasons as Mahomes' blindside protector in Kansas City, but he'll now play the same role for Joe Burrow in rival Cincinnati after being signed away during free agency. The Chiefs overhauled both tackle positions, signing Smith to replace Brown and paying big for former Jaguars right tackle Taylor. Neither of them showed well in most objective metrics last season, so this is a situation to monitor for the defending champs.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars' and New York Jets' offensive tackles
Sticking with the offensive line theme, could tackle issues prove the downfall for these two potential AFC contenders? Not only did the Jaguars lose Taylor to free agency, but Cam Robinson has continued to struggle and is facing a four-game suspension to open the season. That puts a lot of pressure on 24-year-old Walker Little and first-round rookie Anton Harrison. Meanwhile, the Jets will turn to some combination of 38-year-old Duane Brown, oft-injured Mekhi Becton (48 total snaps over the past two seasons) and Max Mitchell (327 snaps as a fourth-round rookie in 2022).
7. Lamar Jackson and Odell Beckham Jr.
If Baltimore is going to overtake the Bengals in the AFC North (and perhaps the Chiefs in the AFC), it's going to require healthy seasons from Jackson (five games missed each of the past two seasons) and the 30-year-old Beckham (one full season since 2017 and was out all of 2022). That might be a tall order, but this duo has lethal upside in a new-look offense under coordinator Todd Monken.
8. Joey Bosa, J.C. Jackson and Rashawn Slater
New year, same question: Will a loaded Chargers team finally stay healthy? Three of the league's best players at their respective positions -- linebacker Bosa (groin), cornerback Jackson (knee, ankle) and left tackle Slater (biceps) -- all appeared in fewer than seven regular-season games in 2022. And that's not to mention the substantial missed action for safety Derwin James Jr., defensive tackle Austin Johnson and receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Los Angeles remains stacked on paper, but the health bug is the elephant in the room.
9. Calvin Ridley and Deshaun Watson
Ridley missed all and Watson missed most of the 2022 season while serving suspensions. Both are back and primed to be X factors in the AFC. Excluding QB, the Browns have arguably a top-five roster on paper, so their progress will come down to whether Watson plays at the high level he did in Houston or if he struggles like he did late last season. By all accounts, Ridley is healthy and primed for a major bounce-back, though. The ex-Falcon finished tied for fourth in the NFL with 1,374 receiving yards in his most recent healthy season (2020).
10. Russell Wilson
To say Wilson struggled in his first season in Denver would be an understatement, as his 36.7 QBR ranked 27th out of 31 qualified QBs. Of course, there's now hope with the arrival of new coach Sean Payton. Denver made some impact signings this offseason and has quietly put together a quality roster. If Payton gets Wilson back playing at the level he did in Seattle, Denver very well could steal a playoff spot.
Preseason power rankings
Asterisks indicate projected playoff teams.
1. Kansas City Chiefs*
With Mahomes (reigning league and Super Bowl MVP) and Reid, the Chiefs are the team to beat -- though Chris Jones' holdout is a short-term concern.
2. Philadelphia Eagles*
After another good Howie Roseman offseason, the Eagles remain loaded at the most important positions and should be able to overcome major uncertainty at safety and linebacker.
3. Buffalo Bills*
Josh Allen's supporting cast is a slight concern, but a once-again-elite Sean McDermott-led defense positions the Bills as a legitimate threat.
4. Cincinnati Bengals*
Cincinnati will be a contender as long as Joe Burrow is healthy, and the defense remains stout even after losing standout safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell.
5. Miami Dolphins*
Miami's defense arguably tops the NFL on paper (even with Jalen Ramsey out for a few months), and Tagovailoa was terrific during a breakout 2022 season.
6. Dallas Cowboys*
Adding cornerback Stephon Gilmore and wide receiver Brandin Cooks to a formidable roster has Dallas closer to the division-rival Eagles than you might realize.
7. San Francisco 49ers*
I have concerns about the offensive line (Trent Williams aside), but this defense is loaded, and Shanahan always gets the most out of his quarterbacks.
8. Los Angeles Chargers*
The Chargers are one of the league's biggest underachievers over the past decade. They have had great rosters for years but can't seem to shake the injury bug. Perhaps this is the year?
9. Cleveland Browns*
Cleveland has quietly built one of the league's best rosters, so the pressure is on coach Kevin Stefanski to get the most out of Watson & Co.
10. New York Jets
The Jets have a top-10 offense and defense on paper, but one or two very good teams are going to miss out in the loaded AFC. Rodgers' play might be the determining factor.
11. Baltimore Ravens
The defense is shakier on paper than we're used to seeing in Baltimore, but a new-look offense led by a healthy Lamar Jackson and elite coaching from John Harbaugh can get this team back to the playoffs.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh gets a big boost from its elite T.J. Watt-led defense, but offensive line improvements and a leap from Pickett could help this team return to contender status in the AFC.
13. New Orleans Saints*
Coupling quarterback Derek Carr with a strong defense and the league's easiest schedule makes New Orleans the favorite in a weak NFC South division.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars*
There are some concern areas on defense and along the offensive line, but adding a healthy Ridley to a Trevor Lawrence-powered offense positions the Jaguars as the favorite in a middling AFC South.
15. Seattle Seahawks*
I have some concerns about the trenches on both sides of the ball, but this is an otherwise good roster, and Geno Smith will have all the help he needs to prove his 2022 breakout was legit.
16. Denver Broncos
Offseason additions of Zach Allen, Frank Clark and Mike McGlinchey were big, but even bigger was the hire of Payton, who will be tasked with getting Wilson back on track.
17. Minnesota Vikings*
Minnesota's offense has been one of the league's best during the Kirk Cousins era -- the O-line is sneaky good -- but major concern areas on defense (especially in the secondary) could prove problematic.
18. Detroit Lions*
The defense is better and has some upside, so the pressure is on volatile quarterback Jared Goff to deliver consecutive strong seasons.
19. New York Giants
There are worrisome areas on both sides of the ball, but if new playmakers Darren Waller and Parris Campbell help coach Brian Daboll get Jones to the next level, the Giants will sneak back into the playoffs.
20. Chicago Bears
Much like the Eagles did for Jalen Hurts last offseason, the Bears have given Fields the upgrades (DJ Moore, Chase Claypool, a better O-line) he needs to make a big leap. But the defense still has a ways to go.
21. New England Patriots
Coach Bill Belichick always gets the most out of his defense, but New England's playoff prospects will come down to whether new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien can get Mac Jones on track.
22. Green Bay Packers
The post-Rodgers era is here, and the offense will be a work in progress with unproven quarterback Jordan Love and an extremely young group of targets. On the plus side, the defense is still pretty good.
23. Tennessee Titans
Coach Mike Vrabel is not to be underestimated, and the Derrick Henry/DeAndre Hopkins/Treylon Burks trio could impress, but having the league's shakiest offensive line and a mediocre defense will be problematic in a tough conference.
24. Atlanta Falcons
A few defensive upgrades (led by Bates and Calais Campbell) and a strong offensive line make the Falcons an interesting sleeper in a weak division, but this team will struggle if second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder doesn't progress.
25. Carolina Panthers
The defense has talent on all levels and could make a big leap, but the offense is in transition after a massive overhaul that includes the addition of 2023 first pick quarterback Bryce Young.
26. Las Vegas Raiders
Edge rusher aside, the defense remains a major problem. And while the offense is solid on paper, things could go downhill quickly if quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (one full season in his career) can't stay on the field.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay's defense is still very good, but beyond wide receiver, the post-Tom Brady offense has issues all over the board. The most notable, of course, is a quarterback position that will be manned by Baker Mayfield.
28. Washington Commanders
The defense features an elite D-line, but the offense is a massive question mark until Howell proves he's a legit starter.
29. Houston Texans
It was a busy offseason for this team, but the roster is still a work in progress, and it will take time for rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud to establish himself as a difference-maker at the pro level.
30. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts' secondary might be shakiest in the entire league, and first-round rookie QB Anthony Richardson figures to battle through some growing pains after starting only 13 games in college. Jonathan Taylor's absence doesn't help.
31. Arizona Cardinals
Safety aside, this defense has major problem areas. And with quarterback Kyler Murray (recovering from a torn ACL) set to miss at least the first four games, the offense is short on impact players.
32. Los Angeles Rams
With the aforementioned extreme defensive concerns and an offense overly reliant on two 30-plus-year-old players (Stafford and Kupp), the check has come due for the Rams' all-out effort to win Super Bowl LVI.
Super Bowl LVIII prediction
Philadelphia Eagles over Miami Dolphins
Are the Chiefs and Eagles the best teams in their respective conference? I believe so. Is it fun to predict a repeat Super Bowl? No, it's not.
I'm very much in on the Dolphins this season, and it's not a stretch to think, come playoff time, that their loaded defense (especially once Ramsey returns) can contain the Kansas City offense a bit while the Tagovailoa/Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle trio delivers the goods on offense, sending Miami to its first Super Bowl appearance since 1984.
The Eagles, meanwhile, are well-positioned to repeat as NFC champions, and this time Hurts, A.J. Brown and the rest of this roster will get them over the top.