Each NFL draft season brings its own set of variables. Scrutiny over a given year's quarterback class is not one of them.
Quarterbacks are always a fascinating storyline, whether it's considered a weak class -- as in 2022, when Kenny Pickett (No. 20) was the only signal-caller selected among the first 73 picks -- or a strong one such as this season's, with ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. projecting the first four selections in the 2023 NFL draft beginning April 27 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN, ABC, ESPN App) to be quarterbacks. The premium nature of the position and the long-standing mythology around it ensures fans and draft observers will be watching closely to see where the quarterbacks land.
The NFL personnel tasked with evaluating those players will be watching too, after spending weeks and months determining how they believe each will fare at the next level. We turned to those NFL executives, scouts and coaches to give us a window into the construction of quarterback draft boards, offering their own player comps and a sense of where they believe each of the draft-worthy QBs could be selected. We then placed those quarterbacks in order and into tiers, reflecting the consensus of experts within the league on the abilities of each player:
Jaren Hall throws 32-yard touchdown pass to Isaac Rex.
Tier 1
Bryce Young, Alabama
Most frequent scout/exec comp: Drew Brees
Scout/exec draft range: No. 1 (ceiling), No. 2 (floor)
Widely considered the most pro-ready quarterback prospect in the class among NFL scouts and executives we interviewed, Young led Alabama to 24 wins in 27 starts and threw 80 touchdowns on his way to becoming a two-time Heisman Trophy finalist (and winning the honor in 2021). He mastered a pro-style Alabama system.
Described as a "mental savant" by one NFC exec, Young aced the S2 cognition test, which Carolina uses to evaluate quarterbacks. "Most pro-ready. Sees the whole field better than anyone," an AFC personnel evaluator said.
Young lacks a broad frame (5-foot-10 1/8, 204 pounds), which fuels injury concerns and worries about potential limitations in the pocket.
"He's the best, but he looks like [5-10, 182-pound Seahawks receiver] Tyler Lockett back there," an NFL coordinator said. "There's a lot of risk with whether he can keep himself healthy."
Among successful sub-6-foot quarterbacks, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray were faster than Young. Drew Brees, exactly 6 feet tall, is perhaps the best pocket operator of all time. It's tough to expect any young quarterback to meet that standard. But one NFC exec believes Young can overcome his deficiencies because, like Brees, he can't see clearly from the pocket and still delivers.
"His anticipation and feel in the pocket is very unique," the exec said. "Great feel for the pocket and how to escape. He'll be very comfortable doing that." Added an NFC scout: "He has great footwork. He will need players around him, though. He needs guys to get open for him."
KeSean Carter tracks down the dime from Clayton Tune to put the Cougars on the board.
C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
Most frequent scout/exec comps: Dak Prescott, a more mobile Jared Goff
Scout/exec draft range: No. 1 (ceiling), No. 4 (floor)
The prolific Stroud owns the Ohio State record with 9,434 career passing yards, won a Rose Bowl and was impressive in the 2022 College Football Playoff with 348 yards and four touchdowns against a vaunted Georgia defense.
"Might be the cleanest prospect," an NFL exec said. "Prototypical size (6-3, 214), arm, accuracy. Maybe not a premium athlete but might be a little underrated in that regard. He's impressive." Added an NFL personnel director: "Interviews very well, prepared. Needs to see the whole field better. Likes staying in the pocket and making reads. ... Probably looks the most like a polished NFL quarterback out of the class."
Several evaluators agree that Stroud throws a beautiful football, with the ability to throw at different speeds to freeze the defense. He's commonly referred to as "smooth" as a thrower. Teams remain concerned about Ohio State's offense and how it translates to the next level, likening it to 7-on-7 football heavily schemed for open receivers and clear-picture throws.
"He had a few clunkers," said an AFC personnel man, citing a 10-for-26 performance against Northwestern and two interceptions in a loss to Michigan. "I thought the performance was uneven." A high achiever with ambition, Stroud wants to go No. 1 to Carolina and has made learning NFL team playbooks a priority entering pre-draft meetings. "He's different than those past Ohio State quarterbacks," a veteran NFL coach said. "He's further along."
Tier 2
Aidan O'Connell airs it out for 60-yard TD.
Anthony Richardson, Florida
Most frequent scout/exec comps: Cam Newton, Justin Fields, Josh Allen, Donovan McNabb
Scout/exec draft range: Top 5 (ceiling), top 10-15 (floor)
Richardson has the highest upside in the draft by a Florida mile, per scouts and executives we interviewed -- he was very close to Tier 1. He showed massive ability in 13 starts at Florida and at the NFL combine with an eye-popping 4.43-second 40 and a 40.5-inch vertical at 6-foot-4, 244 pounds. He's an explosive player who was "putting his head in the rim" by age 15, according to an NFL coordinator.
"If you just watched him and knew nothing about [résumé], you'd take him No. 1 and not think twice," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "He makes really hard s--- look really easy." Added an NFC exec, "I don't want to play [against] him. He's the guy out of this draft that I'd least like to play. Better quarterback playing the position than given credit for. He can read it out and has some good throws."
Among teams, there is huge variance on where he should be drafted. Multiple teams have both first- and fourth-round grades on him among their scouts, with decision-making and accuracy the primary concerns among his detractors. Richardson completed 53.2% of passes at Gainesville (Fla.) High School and 53.8% for the Gators in 2022.
"To ask him to suddenly be a really accurate passer at the next level is asking a lot. He just hasn't done it, and the tape was not good," an NFL scouting director said. "He will need to sit for a year." Added a veteran NFL coach: "If he was a transcendent talent, why wasn't Florida better when he was there?" The Gators went 6-7 in Richardson's lone year as a starter. Those who disagree with that thinking argue that Florida's personnel was quite bad last season, dooming Richardson from the start.
An AFC executive said Richardson "doesn't have the 'student of the game' aspect down yet," not quite a "gym rat ... but I think he will be. He's willing to work at it." Others who have heavily researched Richardson say he was "very attentive" at Florida and have no worries about that part of his profile. And in team interviews, many were impressed by his football acumen.
Richardson was forced to go through progressions in the pocket at Florida and delivered good throws more often than the completion percentage suggests, in part because of a poor supporting cast, per multiple scouts. He could bring added value as a package player in Year 1 behind an established starter.
UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson finds Michael Ezeike for the Bruins' second touchdown.
Will Levis, Kentucky
Most frequent scout/exec comps: Matthew Stafford, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Tannehill
Scout/exec draft range: Top 5 (ceiling), bottom of the top 10 (floor)
Perhaps no quarterback fits the prototypical mold more than Levis, who can fire through tight windows or trample defenders in the open field.
"Might be the most physically talented out of all of them," an NFC scout said. "A lot of positives that you can build around." Added an NFC personnel man: "Big, tough, great arm, smart, hard worker -- everything feels frenetic. Makes you feel good when he chucks a deep ball or runs someone over, but throwing it to the right guy or making the routine play, it makes you a bit uneasy."
Levis is a line-drive thrower similar to Stafford or Tannehill, per an AFC scout. He's not devoid of touch, but a Levis-friendly offense will need to utilize his straight-line fastballs. Teams classify him as a perfectionist, which fuels his work ethic but can pose problems in the pocket, resulting in flustered play. Levis threw 19 touchdowns to 10 interceptions while battling a foot injury last season.
"Robotic, mechanical, can't handle pressure," an AFC scout said. "Tape scares me," an NFC exec added. "I see a guy who can throw it hard. I don't see a guy who throws it accurately."
Others give Levis grace because of a lack of support around him. The Wildcats lost three offensive players to the 2022 draft and were light on receiver and offensive line talent, and their attack fell from eighth in the SEC in 2021 (425.2 yards per game) to last (324.7) this past season. Offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello was fired after one season for failing to maintain the momentum built by ex-coordinator Liam Coen, who returned to Lexington after one season with the Los Angeles Rams. Some evaluators say Levis wasn't put in position to maximize his skill set last season.
"Yes, he can have better accuracy and decision-making in the right situation," an AFC executive said. "Especially if he can sit for a year, the upside is tremendous. And he's really going to work at it."
Some teams who interviewed Levis came away thinking his personality was serious or "tightly wound" -- a phrase heard repeatedly in our interviews with scouts -- and hard to loosen up.
One NFC exec challenged that notion with this: "Are teams trying to knock him down [in industry discussions] so that [his stock] slips and they can draft him? Because that's a game that can be played."
Tier 3
Stetson Bennett records six total touchdowns in Georgia's historic rout of TCU in the College Football Playoff title game.
Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
Most frequent scout/exec comps: A faster Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith, Jarrett Stidham
Scout/exec draft range: Bottom half of first round (ceiling), second round (floor)
Hooker is really Tier "2A," well above the rest of the class after the top four. He was lighting up the SEC with 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns and two interceptions through 11 games before tearing his left ACL vs. South Carolina.
"Super impressed with him," an NFL offensive coach said. "Found myself wanting to watch more. Tools, quick release, smart guy." One NFC exec called Hooker a "solid starter in the right situation. ... Resembles guys that start for a few years and maybe they hit, maybe they don't."
Hooker has plenty of arm but is not on par with Levis and Richardson, several scouts say. Teams are high on his maturity. He's considered organized, engaging and meticulous with his work and encouragement of teammates.
He's also 25 and played in a college-friendly Air Raid system that coaches and scouts say allows quarterbacks to read half the field on one-read plays while stationary, which isn't life in the NFL.
"Age, injury, scheme -- that's a trifecta of areas he has to answer for," an NFC scout said. Added an AFC scout: "Some are putting out first-round buzz but I'm not buying it. But I could see him going to a team that's established looking at him as more of a high Day 2 player."
While most consider him a Day 2 prospect, he's at least considered a threat for the first round, which provides fifth-year options on player contracts (important for injured players).
TCU QB Max Duggan fakes the handoff and goes untouched for a touchdown.
Jaren Hall, BYU
Most frequent scout/exec comp: Russell Wilson
Scout/exec draft range: Round 3 (ceiling), Round 5 (floor)
Next in a line of NFL passers from BYU, Hall completed 66% of his passes for 3,171 yards, 31 touchdowns and six interceptions in 12 games last season. He was erratic at the Senior Bowl, where he was hampered by an ankle injury, but showed a variety of on-time throws at his pro day.
"He has the most going for him in [this tier]," an NFL scouting executive said. "Mentally sharp, accurate." Added a personnel director: "Good kid, pretty good athlete, good arm, longtime backup, can maybe get you out of a few games." Teams had positive experiences with Hall in meetings, with one veteran offensive coach pointing out, "The more time you spend with him, the more you like him."
Not everyone is sold on the Russell Wilson comps, however. His ability to stretch the field vertically is not the same, according to one NFL exec. "A lot of dink-and-dunk," the exec said. "The deep stuff is not very good." But a veteran NFL coach said Hill is a "creative" quarterback whose tape is "very easy to watch. He's a lot of fun to watch. Plays with flair. Has improv in his game."
Jake Haener, Fresno State
Most frequent scout/exec comps: Gardner Minshew, Brock Purdy
Scout/exec draft range: Round 3 (ceiling), late Day 3 (floor)
The 6-foot, 207-pound Haener is not physically imposing. But he overcomes a lack of upside because he's "a baller" with instincts galore, multiple scouts said. Haener rallied Fresno State from a 2-4 start to a 10-win season, including two fourth-quarter comebacks. One veteran NFC scout said Haener has low-end starter ability and could go as high as Day 2.
"I'd take him over [Falcons quarterback and 2022 third-round pick] Desmond Ridder," the scout said. But largely considered by scouts as a high-level backup who will be a coach after his playing days.
Haener is also viewed as a high-level processor who can get to his third read and deliver.
"Really good distributor, knows how to play the position, accurate to the intermediate area, has the fourth-quarter comebacks -- he's just small and not a great athlete," an NFL executive said. "Good enough arm but not enough to push deep downfield. Athletic enough to get out and run [bootlegs]." Haener is also known as football obsessive in his preparation and his rest/recovery regimen.
Clayton Tune, Houston
Most frequent scout/exec comp: Taylor Heinicke
Scout/exec draft range: Early on Day 3 (ceiling), fifth round (floor)
Tune might have the best size-and-football skill makeup in this tier. At 6-foot-2½, 220 pounds, Tune runs a 4.64-second 40 and possesses a 37.5-inch vertical and 10-foot, 2-inch broad jump. He was productive with 4,074 yards and 40 passing touchdowns for Houston in 2022.
"Could go higher than people think," a veteran NFL scout said. "He just has an unorthodox release." Added an NFL scouting executive: "Pretty good runner, pretty tough, probably the worst thrower of the bunch. But when you get to the backup and the s--- hits the fan, you want someone who can make plays and he can do that. Smart, hardworking, good kid and bigger than the others [in this tier]."
Despite a solid showing at Senior Bowl practices, Tune's arm leaves something to be desired. "You don't see him push the ball downfield," an NFL offensive coach said. A scheme that utilizes his mobility could be key.
"You put him in [Kyle] Shanahan's offense and he'd be pretty good," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "Not big-time traits but has size and can move a bit." Added an NFL offensive coach: "His interview was awesome. But you watch film, and offense is just hard with him. A run-first guy, not a natural QB."
Aidan O'Connell, Purdue
Most frequent scout/exec comps: Nathan Peterman, Sean Mannion
Scout/exec draft range: early Day 3 (ceiling), late Day 3 (floor)
A pure pocket passer who earned All-Big Ten second-team honors in back-to-back years, O'Connell completed 67.6% of his passes during that span. Scouts describe him as a streaky passer with an above-average arm. They believe he's best-suited to a traditional passing offense.
"If you're asking him to get on the move, that's not ideal because he's slow-footed," an NFL personnel evaluator said. Teams consider O'Connell, who aspires to be a team chaplain after his playing career ends, to be high-character.
"Will stick in the league because he can throw it and is smart and can operate the offense," a veteran NFL coach said. "Moving to a place where you have to get to on the field with mobility, he will struggle to do it." Added an AFC scout: "I still think he goes before some of the other QBs because he's an ideal backup in the right offense, smart, good makeup."
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA
Most frequent scout/exec comp: Tyrod Taylor
Scout/exec draft range: Round 3 (ceiling), late Day 3 (floor)
A top dual-threat quarterback out of high school, Thompson-Robinson is an upside pick that might be gaining steam. "Really talented but really raw," an NFC scout said. "A lot of traits. He doesn't even know what he's doing yet." Thompson-Robinson, who recorded a 4.56-second 40 at the combine, would add quickness to any offense.
Coaches noticed Thompson-Robinson looked smoother throwing the ball at the combine than he did on his tape, when he sometimes looked stiff. He appeals to modern quarterback sensibilities because of his mobility and adequate arm. "After the first wave of quarterbacks go, he'll have the traits that could be tempting to teams," an AFC exec said.
Several teams have concerns with Thompson-Robinson's maturity, leaving scouts to wonder whether he can relate to teammates and thrive in a backup QB role. The belief is he's worked to address those concerns in his last year at UCLA and in team interviews, though some scouts thought the maturity still showed up on tape in interactions with teammates. "If you're looking for the traditional backup, he might not be for everyone," an NFL personnel exec said. "But I think [that stigma is] overblown and he was fine with us."
Tier 4
Stetson Bennett, Georgia
Most frequent scout/exec comp: Case Keenum
Scout/exec draft range: Early Day 3 (ceiling), undrafted (floor)
Based solely upon on-field play, Bennett might be as high as the sixth-best quarterback in the draft. Evaluators consider him a good processor who has above-average physical tools and is a playmaker without whom Georgia doesn't win back-to-back titles. "Plays big in big games, quick-twitch, aggressive -- sometimes that hurts him but he has confidence, which is what you want," an NFL coordinator said.
Bennett's size (5-11, 192 pounds) is bound to be a concern for some teams. And many interviewed have non-football concerns about Bennett, who was arrested for public intoxication on Jan. 29 and did not receive universally high marks on combine interviews. Said an NFC exec: "To me, he's clearly better than those other guys [in this tier]. He does some good stuff. But he might go undrafted. His pre-draft has not been good and there are questions about whether he'll be the pro that you need out of a backup QB."
Tanner McKee, Stanford
Most frequent scout/exec comp: Josh Rosen
Scout/exec draft range: Late rounds (ceiling), undrafted (floor)
A sturdy pocket passer, the 6-foot-6 McKee completed the fifth-most passes in Stanford history (264) in 2022. He also rushed for two touchdowns, but his mobility is not considered a strength.
"Rhythm passer, pro-style QB with experience," an AFC scout said. "Throws the seam/intermediate ball the best. Struggles due to lack of lower body strength and foot quickness. Average arm talent. Palms the ball and it doesn't jump off his hand." Added a veteran NFC coach: "One of the more natural pocket passers but he can't move and has a slot release. If you are throwing outcuts and daggers, he can really deliver the ball."
Max Duggan, TCU
Most frequent scout/exec comps: Sam Ehlinger, smaller Taysom Hill
Scout/exec draft range: Late rounds (ceiling), undrafted (floor)
Duggan is a high achiever and former Iowa Gatorade Player of Year in 2018 who became TCU's first Heisman Trophy finalist since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2000. He was one of college football's best stories in leading the Horned Frogs to the national championship game in 2022. Most evaluators see Duggan as more of a gamer/scrambler (runs a 4.52-second 40) than a polished passer.
"If you take him to a workout or a throwing session, he'll miss guys on air," an NFL coordinator said. "If you got out there in a game, he figures it out and wins games. [There's] something to him. He's a 'finds-a-way' guy." Added an AFC executive: "He can run, tough, some leadership to him, but delivery and accuracy [will be] issues at the next level."