ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder has graded more than 50 NFL free agency signings and trades so far, breaking down each deal from every angle and doling out ratings on which teams did well -- and which gave up too much money. Below, we compiled all of Walder's "A" grades -- the 2023 deals he liked most from the perspective of the teams. We then asked him to rank those 14 deals, with his favorites at the top.
To determine each grade, Walder evaluated deals based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary-cap implications, draft compensation, player value/age and the context of a team's short- and long-term outlook. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it's a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team's chance to win the Super Bowl, either this season or in the future?
Check out Walder's favorite free agent deals and his analysis on all 14, which has been adapted from our original piece (updated at 6:30 a.m. ET Monday with another signing included):
A GRADES
1. WR Jakobi Meyers to the Raiders
The deal: Three years, $33 million ($21 million guaranteed)
The wide receiver market exploded a year ago and the free agent class is pretty weak overall this season, so I assumed that Meyers -- arguably the top free agent wide receiver available -- would receive a major payday. He isn't widely regarded as a No. 1, but then again, the same could be said for Christian Kirk, who received an average of $18 million per year as a free agent in 2022. Given that, consider me shocked at how cheap Meyers came to the Raiders. Las Vegas got a steal at the most important non-QB position in the sport.
Meyers' statistics aren't eye-opening, with between 729 and 866 receiving yards in each of the past three seasons. But the advanced metrics tell a different story. According to ESPN's Receiver Tracking Metrics, Meyers has shown significantly more upside. He's coming off his "worst" season of the past three years in the eyes of the RTMs, which gave him a 66/74/30 Open/Catch/YAC triple slash and an Overall Score of 62 (tied for 32nd). Even at that level of performance, I think he's worth this price. But Meyers has shown more in the past, including a 66 Overall Score in 2021 and an 88 Overall Score in 2020 -- which came with a 99 Open Score. Open Score is the most important and most stable metric of the three, so Meyers' best production may still be ahead of him.
Teams in the modern NFL really need three or four good pass-catchers to win. Adding Meyers to complement Davante Adams is going to be an impactful move for Jimmy Garoppolo and the Raiders.
2. OT Orlando Brown Jr. to the Bengals
The deal: Four years, $64 million ($43.5 million guaranteed)
When you look at the contract numbers, keep in mind that this same offseason Jawaan Taylor received $80 million over four years and Mike McGlinchey received $87.5 million over five years. Brown is the best tackle of the three and the only one who has played left tackle in the NFL. And on a per-year basis, he is being paid the least. An average of $16 million per year for a good 26-year-old left tackle is plenty palatable.
Brown's 92% pass block win rate at tackle ranked 18th out of 64 tackles -- McGlinchey was 32nd and Taylor was 37th -- but he also did it with double-team help just 27% of the time, the fourth-lowest rate. His run block win rate was average (significantly worse than McGlinchey, but significantly better than Taylor).
Crucially, the Bengals' need here was massive. The idea that their offensive line cost them at the end of last season because of injuries isn't quite right; the line wasn't all that good to begin with, particularly at tackle. Jonah Williams and La'el Collins had pass block win rates of 84% (55th) and 81% (57th) last season, respectively. Bringing in Brown is a huge step forward in fixing the biggest problem for a Super Bowl contender.
3. CB James Bradberry back to the Eagles
The deal: Three years, $38 million ($20 million guaranteed)
Bradberry was the best corner in the NFL last season. Others might disagree with putting him at the top, but I don't think there's any debate that he was one of the league's best. Let's rattle off a few of his NFL Next Gen Stats nearest-defender numbers again, shall we?
0.7 yards per coverage snap (first among outside corners with at least 250 coverage snaps)
minus-33 EPA allowed when targeted (first)
minus-10.6 receptions allowed over expectation (first)
I've preached in this space all week that cornerback performance is unstable from year to year. That fact and his age (29) are the drawbacks here. Perhaps the influence of all the other good defenders around him, too.
My counter to that? This isn't the first time he has played exceptionally well -- he was great with the Giants in 2020 -- so we can be confident it was no fluke. He isn't too old to sign what essentially amounts to a two-year commitment. Ultimately, this is about getting an elite player at a key position for a total bargain. Just one year ago, the Chargers signed J.C. Jackson on a contract with $40 million fully guaranteed. The Eagles are getting Bradberry for half the guarantee a year later -- when the salary cap is higher.
4. DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson to the Lions
The deal: One year, max value of $8 million
Just a one-year, $8 million deal for the six-interception safety who my colleague Matt Bowen ranked as NFL's eighth-best free agent available? The one who was part of the elite Eagles secondary that helped bring them to the Super Bowl? Consider me surprised.
It's a heck of a move by the Lions to continue to invest in their secondary, their biggest weakness last season. They had the league's fourth-most efficient offense ... and the 31st-most efficient defense. They've now added Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley and Gardner-Johnson in free agency.
Gardner-Johnson is a ballhawk, with nine interceptions in the past two seasons, and he can play as a safety or slot corner.
His nearest-defender numbers are hard to interpret because of his versatile nature, but he allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap last season, which would be better than average for a slot defender, where he aligned most of the time with the Eagles. His target EPA was only slightly negative (with negative numbers being good), a surprise for someone with six interceptions last season, but again, nearest-defender numbers are dicey at best for safeties.
He has now been moved for cheap in consecutive offseasons -- the Saints dealt him and a seventh-round pick for a fifth and sixth-rounder in 2022 -- in a trade that both at the time and in retrospect seemed like an error (or an easy win, from Philadelphia's perspective). Now he only gets $8 million in free agency, though the safety market has been fairly cheap outside of Jessie Bates' contract. Still, I'm shocked at how cheap this contract is; I did not see Donovan Wilson signing a larger total contract than Gardner-Johnson. If his market was this poor, it makes sense Gardner-Johnson took a prove-it deal -- especially being just 25 years old.
For the Lions, this is a no-risk move to add a defensive playmaker for a low cost. It's a no-brainer.
5. QB Geno Smith back to the Seahawks
The deal: Three years, $75 million ($27.3 million guaranteed at signing)
Smith represented such a strange free agency case because he's a 32-year-old quarterback we're still figuring out. He legitimately played well in 2022, ranking sixth in QBR, stunning the league and bringing the Seahawks to the postseason. He led all QBR qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage over expectation (plus-4%), per NFL Next Gen Stats, and ranked third in off-target rate (11%).
He was in a surprisingly strong situation with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf at receiver -- Russell Wilson missed them quite a bit, it turned out -- and was pretty well protected after the Seahawks hit on rookie tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Smith's performance dwindled as the year rolled on: He ranked fourth in QBR in the first half of the season (games 1-8) before ranking 15th in the second half.
But let's be clear, Smith played well. His efficiency numbers don't just happen. It left Seattle in a bit of a weird place. It had overachieved with Smith, but he still represented plenty of unknown and the team is sitting on the No. 5 pick in the draft.
Going into free agency, I thought the franchise tag was the play for Seattle here. One year ago, many saw Smith in the Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota class of quarterbacks. Would it be that wild if we saw him there again a year from now? Why not take another year to make sure he plays well again before committing multiyear money to him?
Initially, I thought this deal was a slightly unnecessary risk, based on the initial numbers that surfaced. But the actual deal means the Seahawks fully guaranteed less money than they would have with the franchise tag -- or even the transition tag -- while retaining all of the upside. If Smith plays well, the Seahawks retain the rights to him at what would then be a well-below-market price for a QB coming off two consecutive strong seasons.
6. DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo to the Browns
The deal: Three years, $22 million ($12.5 million guaranteed)
I think Okoronkwo could break out later in his career the way Shaquil Barrett did with the Bucs in 2019. I'm not promising anything quite like 19.5 sacks, but you get the idea. He had five sacks with the Texans this year, but that came while playing just 44% of snaps (a career high) on a bad team, which resulted in fewer sack opportunities. On a play-to-play level, he was productive, recording a 19% pass rush win rate and 31% run stop win rate at edge, which ranked 13th and fourth at the position, respectively.
Okoronkwo fills a need, playing edge opposite Myles Garrett, and I think a year from now, we'll look at this contract as a steal. I'm surprised he was this cheap even right now, considering how thin the edge rusher market is this offseason.
7. LB T.J. Edwards to the Bears
The deal: Three years, $19 million ($12 million guaranteed)
This is a steal for a highly productive off-ball linebacker in the prime of his career. The 26-year-old Edwards' numbers were excellent across the board for the Eagles last season, as he allowed 0.6 yards per coverage snap, the eighth-best mark among linebackers with at least 250 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He also ranked seventh in run stop win rate among linebackers and had a strong 38% pass rush win rate in a small sample.
The tricky part of evaluating Edwards is that he played on such a stacked defense that it's fair to wonder if he benefited from such good play around him. Off-ball linebacker is not a premium position either, but again, the financial commitment from the Bears here is minimal and much less than I thought he would go for -- even given the crowded linebacker market.
8. LB David Long to the Dolphins
The deal: Two years, $11 million
Outside of the deals for Tremaine Edmunds and Bobby Okereke, it's clear the linebacker market is coming cheap. Long just missed qualifying for our run stop win rate leaderboard last season, but he would have led all linebackers in the category. While his 46% run stop win rate was a little higher than he posted the previous two seasons, he always has been strong in the metric. In coverage, he was decent, allowing 0.9 yards per coverage snap, which is average for linebackers.
He joins a Dolphins defense that increasingly looks like it could be an elite unit under new coordinator Vic Fangio. What makes this deal great, though, is the value. At just $5.5 million per season, Miami locked in a good linebacker at a great price.
A- GRADES
9. DE Brandon Graham back to the Eagles
The deal: One year, $6 million
Sure, he'll be 35 years old in April. But Graham was excellent as a rotational player for the Eagles last season, turning in 11 sacks and a 28% pass rush win rate at edge that would have ranked third at the position had he qualified. The Eagles are going to lose some defensive players to free agency, so keeping Graham in the fold should help ease the pain.
The base price is expected to be just a portion of the $6 million max value, so I'm all for bringing back a high-impact role player at a key position at that price -- even at Graham's age.
10. DE Arden Key to the Titans
The deal: Three years, $21 million ($13 million guaranteed)
The Titans just landed some serious pass rushing upside. Key didn't play enough with the Jaguars last season to qualify for our pass rush win rate leaderboard, but if he had, he would have ranked sixth at edge rusher. His 24% pass rush win rate at edge was a tenth of a percentage point ahead of Von Miller. Plus, he had 4.5 sacks.
Now, it's not a huge sample, and his 2022 win rate was definitely the best of his career, but those are solid numbers. It could be a sign of great things to come. Even though the Titans are seemingly in a rebuild, this is still exactly the kind of bet I'd want to make in free agency.
11. QB Jacoby Brissett to the Commanders
The deal: One year, $10 million ($8 million guaranteed)
Like the Commanders, I am somewhat intrigued by Sam Howell. But I'm also a realist -- he's a 2022 fifth-round pick who played one game last season. The best thing the Commanders could do short of landing Lamar Jackson is get a veteran QB with upside. Brissett completely fits the bill.
Brissett played very well in Cleveland last season, with a 60 QBR that ranked eighth among all quarterbacks. With the same team, Deshaun Watson's QBR was 38.3 (which would have ranked 27th had he qualified). At worst, Brissett is a bridge quarterback to Howell or someone else, a role he filled admirably in Cleveland. At best, perhaps his play with the Browns is a sign of more to come and Washington will be the beneficiary.
Either way, he's a great fit on a one-year commitment for Washington. It also makes sense for Brissett. He's in a spot where he should be the Week 1 starter, and the Commanders have a good receiver in Terry McLaurin, a good defense and a new offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. The only question I have is whether Washington should have instead gone for Jackson. I suppose it still could, as a one-year deal for Brissett is a pittance compared with what Jackson will cost. The Commanders wouldn't be surrendering an early first-rounder if they sign Jackson to an unmatched offer sheet -- they pick in the middle of Round 1 -- and would be an instant contender in the shallow NFC. It would be costly, but the Commanders have to at least consider it.
Jackson aside, Brissett is a pretty ideal short-term move.
12. S Jordan Poyer back to the Bills
The deal: Two years, $12.5 million ($14.5 million max value)
In each of the past two seasons, no defensive back has cost opposing offenses more EPA when targeted than Poyer, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. It's hard to quantify safeties, but there's no denying Poyer's ball skills. He has been incredibly effective for Buffalo.
And I often think about the 2021 Bills defense as an example of the hidden value of safeties. That was an elite defense despite the fact it lacked a good pass rush and was only decent against the run. Buffalo had a good corner in Tre'Davious White but was anchored by Poyer and Micah Hyde on the back end -- and I believe that was a major factor in its success. Hyde's injury meant we didn't get to see the pair really play together in 2022, but now we'll get another chance. They're both getting up there in age; Hyde is 32, and Poyer will be 32 as well in April. But the Bills are a top Super Bowl contender, and it's probably worth it to keep the duo together, especially at this cheap price.
This is basically just a one-year $7 million commitment, and if Poyer maintains his level of play for another season, he'll easily be worth the money.
13. OT Andrew Wylie to the Commanders
The deal: Three years, $24 million
Wylie is an underrated pass-protector who will help whoever starts at quarterback for the Commanders in 2023. I think his reputation is slightly dinged by Patrick Mahomes' higher-than-average time to throw and pressure rates, but his pass block win rate (which measures how frequently he sustained his block for at least 2.5 seconds) was strong at 93%, ninth-best among offensive tackles.
I do put some stock into the general view of Wylie, but it's hard to shake how strong his player tracking numbers are overall. Even if Wylie is an average pass-protecting tackle -- and I think there's a solid chance he's better than that -- this is a good price for the Commanders.