NFL free agency 2023 is about to see a major increase in intensity. The start of the legal tampering period means conversations between agents and teams can begin in earnest on Monday afternoon, with deals becoming official starting on Wednesday. If history is any indication, the next few days will be a frenzy.
ESPN's NFL Insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler will be there every step of the way, as weeks of buzz give way to a more official round of business. With just over 24 hours to go, here's the latest on what Graz and Fowler are hearing from all corners of the league.
Jump to:
Rodgers | Lamar | Biggest sellers
DTs getting paid | Priority FAs
Sleepers to watch | Quick hits

What's the latest with Aaron Rodgers?
By far the biggest story of the early free agency period is going to be the Rodgers story. The Jets have shot their best shot, and the Jets and Packers have had enough discussions about compensation that they basically know the parameters of the prospective deal. They've discussed various scenarios involving picks and players going both ways, and I do believe it could come together quickly. But they're both still waiting on Rodgers to decide what he wants to do.
The Packers know from experience how mercurial he is, and the Jets are beginning to get an education in this, which is why things have been quiet around this situation the past couple of days. No one wants to do anything to upset Rodgers and wreck the deal. Ultimately, the terms of a potential trade could change depending on how his contract situation is resolved and whether the Packers are willing to pay a portion of the money.
But there are still a number of different ways this could turn out. Rodgers could still decide to retire. He could decide he wants to stay in Green Bay. There could be another team lurking (there are still people who think the Raiders will ultimately get involved, though if they are interested, they've been very verrrrrry quiet about it). If this doesn't work out for the Jets, I expect them to take a run at Jimmy Garoppolo but to also consider other options, including trades for veterans (Lamar Jackson? Kirk Cousins? Matthew Stafford?) who could be on the block for one reason or another. -- Graziano
Here's my read on the situation: Once the Jets and Packers get the green light -- presumably, Rodgers signing off on a deal -- then a deal will come together quite quickly because of the legwork that's been done. The Jets first reached out before the Super Bowl, and both sides have been discussing the trade coming out of the NFL combine. They've had time to hash out particulars, such as the handling of Rodgers' $58.3 million guarantee in 2023.
The people I've spoken to believe the interest between Rodgers and the Jets is mutual. But it's still not at the finish line, and with Monday's tampering period approaching, both teams need to start planning for free agency -- with or without a Rodgers deal technically done. The Jets are being respectful of Rodgers' time, and so are the Packers, who believe he's earned that right. So ... they wait.
Dan's mention of Cousins is interesting, given Minnesota's recent cost-cutting measures (more on that below). If the Jets miss out on Rodgers, why not place that call to Minnesota with the chance to give Cousins a new deal? Cousins and Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell appear closely aligned, but it wouldn't hurt to check. As of now, he's not under contract beyond 2023. -- Fowler

What's next in the Lamar Jackson saga?
Teams cannot send in offer sheets on Lamar Jackson until Wednesday at 4 pm ET. This is because Jackson does not have an agent. As of noon ET on Monday, teams can talk to the agents of prospective free agents but not to the players themselves. So anybody who wants to negotiate a deal with Jackson has to wait until Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET.
Based on the conversations I've had, there are teams interested in pursuing a potential Jackson trade if he decides he wants out of Baltimore, but I don't know that you'll see anyone submit a formal offer sheet that puts two first-round draft picks at risk if the Ravens don't match. I think teams would rather talk to the Ravens about a more traditional trade, though of course they'd also at some point have to talk to Jackson because he'd have to sign the franchise tender before he could be traded. -- Graziano

Which teams will be the biggest sellers?
It's the time of year when teams address the bloated contracts that include minimal to no guaranteed money remaining. Sometimes, those players are shopped for a trade before teams decide whether to keep them. Meanwhile, teams that went all-in to contend for a championship now must shed salary.
Some of those teams will stay very active on the phones, feeling out potential suitors. The Colts are believed to be one. Sources with several NFL teams say three-time Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly is available for a potential trade or release. Kelly signed a four-year, $50 million extension before the 2020 season. With cap hits of $12.4 and $14.6 million in 2023-24, coupled with Indy's rough outing across the offensive line last year, Kelly's future in Indy could be tenuous. Tight end Mo Alie-Cox is another name a few teams have on their lists as potentially available.
The Vikings are open for business as well. They've released three veteran players thus far -- including legacy player Adam Thielen -- and multiple teams believe Minnesota has had trade talks centered around running back Dalvin Cook. The team is attempting to re-sign Cook's backup, Alexander Mattison, who is poised for a starter's role somewhere. Safety Harrison Smith most likely needs to take a pay cut to remain with the team. He's due $15 million-plus in cash and the Vikings are in clear scale-back mode.
In the NFC West, the Rams and Cardinals are both seeking to reset their rosters. The feeling among several teams is L.A. would move just about anybody save maybe Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald.
The belief from teams I've spoken to is the Cardinals want hefty compensation for WR DeAndre Hopkins (a premium Day 2 pick and more). His age (30) and last year's suspension are issues for some teams, but a new team would be getting a premier receiver who, I'm told, is highly motivated to reaffirm his spot among the best. And his deal is fairly manageable, with $34.4 million over two years that can be restructured to save nearly $10 million in cap space this year. Hopkins appeared in just nine games but produced at a high level, pacing for 121 catches for 1,354 yards over a 17-game season despite uneven quarterback play. -- Fowler

Defensive tackles getting paid
This isn't perceived as a great free agent class, but the top of the defensive tackle market could get pricey. Philadelphia's Javon Hargrave is expected to get a big-money deal from some team (probably not Philadelphia), but watch out for guys such as Denver's Dre'Mont Jones, Jacksonville's Arden Key and Arizona's Zach Allen, who have been mentioned several times to me as players expected to draw strong interest on the open market. Non-free agents such as the Jets' Quinnen Williams, the Titans' Jeffery Simmons and the Commanders' franchise player, Daron Payne, are watching this market closely as they think about their own potential long-term extensions. -- Graziano

Strongest retention efforts
The opening of the legal tampering window can spark urgency for teams that want to re-sign their priority free agents. That's the case with a couple of right tackles, Atlanta's Kaleb McGary and Jacksonville's Jawaan Taylor. Their teams would like to keep them and are making good-faith efforts. Jacksonville is also pushing to keep pass-rusher Arden Key with a clear goal of maintaining its promising core.
Chicago would like to re-sign running back David Montgomery, though as of now he appears poised to hit free agency.
The Eagles have several key players they could bring back, and though it appears they are waiting for markets to develop before reacting, some around the league believe they've made a strong effort to re-sign safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who appears set for the open market. That could open the door to re-sign cornerback James Bradberry or another player.
Defensive back Jonathan Jones is an ideal Patriot, so perhaps New England works something out there in short order. And watch for Dallas to try to figure something out with safety Donovan Wilson, a valuable player for Dan Quinn's defense. -- Fowler

ID'ing the sleepers
It's always fun to identify "sleepers" in free agency, the players who aren't major names or top-of-market guys but might surprise. Cornerback is a good example. Because of a lack of depth in the draft or the free agency class, corners such as Jamel Dean, Byron Murphy Jr. and James Bradberry are well positioned.
Here's another name to keep a close eye on: Cameron Sutton. The Pittsburgh corner just finished a two-year, $9 million deal but will be in a much higher tier this time. His name is circulating right now at the cornerback spot. Could see some NFC North action here -- the Vikings or Lions make sense. Raiders, too. Another player to watch is Sean Murphy-Bunting, who can play press-man coverage with inside-out flexibility and has length and speed. Teams have been intrigued by the Tampa Bay corner. Also, Shaquill Griffin is two years removed from a big-money deal with Jacksonville and should be a factor at age 27. -- Fowler
A sleeper cornerback who could be popular on the open market is the Colts' Rock Ya-Sin. He might not cash in at the upper end of the market with guys like Jamel Dean, but Ya-Sin's price could get driven up as the game of cornerback musical chairs starts to thin out early in the week. -- Graziano
A spotlight should be on Tremaine Edmunds, who will test the linebacker market in a big way. His age (24), impressive size (6-foot-5, 250) and Pro Bowl background prompt the question: Will he push for $20 million annually? Some teams think he might get close. Not everyone agrees. But those who are high on him are really high on him, and Buffalo is bummed that a blue-chip player it drafted and developed isn't staying due in part to cap constraints. The consensus is Indianapolis' Bobby Okereke is somewhere behind him, but very high on the list. And a player whose market might surprise is Philadelphia's T.J. Edwards. He could get more money than people think. He racked up nearly 300 tackles and 12 pass deflections in two seasons with Philly.
The linebacker market is saturated with really good players, so teams that stay patient will get great value.
Back to corner, Dan's point about Ya-Sin is spot-on. Wondering about Arizona here. Jonathan Gannon was his position coach in Indy from 2019-20 and the two maintained a good relationship.-- Fowler
Edmunds is a good call as one to watch, and the obvious spot for him is the Giants, who are being run by people who helped draft and develop him in Buffalo. The Giants aren't exactly loaded with cap space, and they have big-time needs on the offensive side of the ball at wide receiver. But I'm definitely not ruling them out as a team for Edmunds or Buffalo's other prime defensive free agent, safety Jordan Poyer. -- Graziano

Other notes heading into free agency
Graziano
The Bengals are among the teams looking for edge rush help in free agency and could be one of the teams interested in Obo Okoronkwo if the Texans aren't able to get him signed before the market opens.
The Seahawks will be looking for any upgrade they can find on the defensive side of the ball, especially since the structure of Geno Smith's new contract does not in any way preclude them from drafting a quarterback with the No. 5 pick in the draft.
One potential trade target I'm watching is Houston left tackle Laremy Tunsil. The Texans have resisted trading him in recent years, but he has just one year and a nonguaranteed $18.5 million left on his contract and could be a target of the Chiefs if they aren't able to bring back Orlando Brown Jr.
Earlier, I referenced a potential extension this offseason for Jets superstar defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. I expect the Jets to work on that at some point this summer. But in the meantime, don't be surprised if they work to keep his brother, Quincy Williams, from hitting the market. I'm told the Jets have been working on trying to get Quincy signed to an extension and keep the brothers together.
The running back market will be fascinating, with the top three guys -- Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard -- all franchised. I think teams see a lot of the remaining guys, such as Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary and Raheem Mostert, as committee-type backs who work well in concert with others. As for lead back types, the Bears' Montgomery is probably the top one remaining. But it's not a position for which teams are eager to pay, and a flooded market isn't helping. Look for the Raiders, Giants and Cowboys to let this free agent RB market sort itself out and set the eventual prices for Jacobs, Barkley and Pollard in extension talks this summer.
How far will the Titans go in stripping things down to the studs in Tennessee? Will they really trade Derrick Henry? And what about quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who's got one year and a very reasonable nonguaranteed $27 million left on his contract. I don't expect the Titans to cut Tannehill anytime soon. It makes too much sense for them to hold on to him and see if some team gets desperate enough to offer something for him in a trade. Once the Rodgers/Garoppolo situations are settled, there could be a disappointed team or two for whom a Tannehill trade makes sense. I wouldn't rule it out, even if it takes a while.
Packers WR Allen Lazard could end up wherever Rodgers does, but I don't think it would be for that reason. Lazard is a coach's favorite due to his ability and willingness as a blocker in addition to his abilities as a receiver. Packers coaches refer to him as their "enforcer" on the field. He's expected to have a market independent of his relationship with Rodgers, and he could end up one of the higher-paid receivers in a thin WR free agent market. I'm watching the Ravens and the Chiefs for him if the Packers don't bring him back.
Because the free agent receiver market is thin, look for teams to try to fill their need at that position through trades. One sneaky, potentially available name I've heard a couple of places is that of Denver's Courtland Sutton.
Speaking of the Broncos, with the injury recovery timetable for Javonte Williams still a bit of a mystery, they could be a player in that running back market. Kareem Hunt is an interesting name to watch for Denver.
Fowler
Predictions among a handful of scouts and execs: The Texans and/or Raiders look to sign Jimmy Garoppolo. That could affect the top of the draft if one of those teams decides not to pursue a rookie quarterback, unless Garoppolo is a bridge.
Lots of buzz right now around Atlanta targeting a big-name safety. Jessie Bates III would fit nicely.
One of the recently released players who should sign relatively quickly at a good clip is Leonard Floyd. Plenty of interest in the former Rams pass-rusher.
We talked about sleepers earlier, and here's another: Ravens tight end Josh Oliver. A lot of suitors here. Versatile tight ends get paid.
As Dan noted, defensive tackle is where much free agency money will be allocated. At the top, Javon Hargrave will post a big number. Same for Dre'Mont Jones, more of a 3-4 defensive end who can play inside and adapt to multiple schemes. A lot of buzz that those two will price themselves out of Philly and Denver, respectfully. But veterans such as Sheldon Rankins, David Onyemata and Poona Ford are well-positioned, too. A lot of depth here. The Browns, Texans, Giants, Bengals, Panthers and 49ers all could be in the defensive line pool to some degree. Plenty of well-known veterans (Jarran Reed, A'Shawn Robinson) who could help a team such as Seattle, one of many looking for D-line help.
Some people around the league are making the connection between 49ers linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and Houston, a pairing that would reunite the player with coach DeMeco Ryans.
The Raiders almost certainly will add defensive back help and could have some interest in veteran Jordan Poyer, who would be a calming presence for a young back-end.
A fit that multiple scouts presented to me, unprompted: Lavonte David and the Buffalo Bills. Still a decent chance he goes back to Tampa Bay, but joining a contender would make sense.
Lot of talk about a big number for both DT Javon Hargrave and DE Dre'Mont Jones posting huge numbers in free agency. Both might have priced themselves out of their current spots.