NFL head-coach openings: Latest buzz, rumors and top candidates

The NFL head-coaching carousel finds itself in a slow, steady spin in the days since the conclusion of the 2022 regular season. In addition to three positions that were vacant before season's end, two more have been added to the list -- with a decision to come for Sean McVay with the Los Angeles Rams, and perhaps additional surprises afoot.

Vacancies at present include the Panthers, Colts and Broncos jobs, with the Cardinals and Texans both dismissing their coaches in the hours that followed the conclusion of Week 18. Sean Payton and Jim Harbaugh are high on any list of the hottest names at present, with speculation about the fit for those coaches and several others a major topic of conversation in league circles.

Here with the latest information on all of the most prominent names and coaching searches, as well as the spots where uncertainty remains, are NFL insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler, who have also been sizing up potential coordinator and general manager movement throughout the NFL:

What is your biggest early surprise of the coaching carousel?

Graziano: Same as last year: I don't understand why more teams aren't interested in talking to Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. He has previous head-coaching experience, he's well-respected by players and fellow coaches, and his Buffalo defenses have consistently ranked as the best or among the best in the league since he has been there. Especially with the league pushing for teams to hire more minority head coaches, I wonder why someone with Frazier's credentials isn't a hotter candidate.

Fowler: Agreed on Frazier, though the Colts, a natural fit, still could reach out. I believe Indy is waiting until next week to request some of the coaches preparing for the wild-card round this week. The Bengals' tree hasn't been shaken yet -- coordinators Brian Callahan and Lou Anarumo are solid candidates, and the light interest is a surprise. And the lack of a shocking job opening is perhaps the most surprising. Typically there's at least one doozy. But Monday's moves by Arizona and Houston were largely expected. Maybe the post-wild-card cycle will produce a shakeup. But for now, the league is left with five openings -- half of last year's amount.

Is Sean Payton to the Broncos viewed as a good match within league circles?

Fowler: Sean Payton is a good match in that he's the best coach available and Denver -- which offers stable ownership and a roster with talent -- is drawn to that. But some around the league are skeptical about whether Payton wants to tie his future to Russell Wilson, who struggled mightily in 2022, though he improved late in the year. A massive six-year deal can assuage any concerns if Payton wants to wait out Wilson and develop another quarterback eventually. The organization has shown little patience with head coaches, six of whom have been fired since 2009. John Fox was the only coach to last longer years, and he got to a Super Bowl. Payton might opt for more stable ground elsewhere.

Graziano: I'm starting to believe Denver might want Payton more than he wants them, though that Walmart money might end up talking before all is said and done. And it was only a couple of years ago that everybody thought Payton and Wilson were trying to team up in New Orleans, so maybe he sees something in Wilson he believes he can make work. There's widespread belief Payton will want to bring his own personnel people with him, maybe even his own GM, so you wonder what that would mean for current Broncos GM George Paton. I'd also be surprised if Payton did anything before we got more clarity on the availability of the Los Angeles jobs.

What do you expect the Cardinals to look for in a coach? Is personnel control on the table for that coach, given GM Steve Keim's exit?

Graziano: I don't think anything's off the table. For example, I expect them to at least look into Payton, which would mean giving the coach personnel control. Because Arizona is looking to hire both positions, the coaching candidate list could take a little while to shake out while they figure out what to do at GM. I do expect defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to be a candidate, though he will have to show them a plan for who's going to run the offense and how to get the most out of Kyler Murray, right?

Fowler: This one is simple: Maximize Kyler Murray. Challenge him, hold him accountable and give him an offense that will help him shine. Questions about Murray's leadership and work ethic have never been louder. He's not going anywhere and is immensely talented, so perhaps a new voice will bring out his best. Because Kliff Kingsbury's coaching style was more laid-back, the Cardinals could reverse course and go with more intensity. Giving up full personnel control to a new coach seems like a reach here, because that hasn't been Arizona's style in the past. Owner Michael Bidwill is known as very hands-on, even meddling. That can present challenges for a new coach. But the right coach, with the right power dynamic, could perhaps change that.

What are you hearing about the attractiveness of the Texans job within the industry? Do back-to-back one-and-dones (David Culley, Lovie Smith) give any potential candidates pause? Does Houston not having the No. 1 pick matter to top coaching candidates?

Fowler: Sneaky-good job. The Texans will have an estimated $47 million in cap space and 11 picks in the draft, including two selections in the top 12. Players from the rookie class, such as Dameon Pierce and Jalen Pitre, flashed major potential. Coming off back-to-back coach firings -- a bad look, to be sure -- the Texans know and seem to acknowledge they must change their ways. They can't afford the status quo. Some top candidates will have this job ranked higher than the average fan might think, though not too high, given the well-documented culture problems there.

Graziano: If you were a coaching candidate who was interested in Houston because it had the No. 1 pick and you knew (and agreed with) the decision about which quarterback to take, then the Texans falling to No. 2 would give you at least some pause, because it introduces some uncertainty into the mix. But Houston still has two picks in the top 12, so it has some basis for a strong draft foundation, as well as a lot of cap space. So it's not completely unattractive. Still, the fact that the Texans are hiring a new head coach for the third offseason in a row would make me wonder, and I do believe there are candidates who would look elsewhere or even consider staying in their current jobs rather than taking one where there's that much risk of being out after a year.

What's the latest with Carolina's search?

Graziano: Former Colts and Lions coach Jim Caldwell interviewed Monday, and my understanding was that interim head coach Steve Wilks was set to interview there Tuesday, but most of Carolina's external early list is young offensive coordinators. The Panthers have put in requests to interview Buffalo's Ken Dorsey, Philadelphia's Shane Steichen, Detroit's Ben Johnson and the Giants' Mike Kafka. Carolina is determined to fix its longstanding problem at quarterback, and for that reason it's possible it could look to one of the up-and-coming offensive coordinators to oversee that process.

Caldwell is an interesting name, because he brings the offensive background as well as previous NFL head-coaching experience. Wilks had the team playing well down the stretch and for a while looked like the favorite to keep the job, but his candidacy is losing a bit of steam. The biggest thing for him if he's trying to sell the Panthers on keeping him is probably his plan for fixing the offense, which of course requires figuring out quarterback.

Fowler: To your point about quarterbacks, Dan, those OC names have been on the Panthers' radar for a while. As the logic goes, the Panthers knew they had Wilks as a prime candidate with a defensive background, so they went heavy on offense with the rest of the pool. Wilks has a solid offensive staff to sell David Tepper, to be sure. But multiple people I've spoken to around the league think the young coordinators have their advantages for a QB-starved franchise. Frank Reich is interviewing for the head-coaching job but could end up a strong coordinator candidate. The Panthers could start knocking out an interview per day, either in-person or via videoconference.

Jim Harbaugh's name is again being mentioned around potential NFL coaching vacancies. Based on what you observed from Harbaugh as the 49ers' coach, what would need to happen for his return to the league to be a success?

Fowler: Synergy with the general manager will be key. Harbaugh is a unique personality and needs someone who understands his vision. He brought longtime NFL personnel man Tom Gamble with him to Michigan, and some people around the league believe Harbaugh would bring Gamble with him to his new spot. That's why jobs such as Denver and Indy are interesting in relation to Harbaugh, because those jobs have well-liked executives in place with George Paton and Chris Ballard, but the presence of a Harbaugh could change the dynamic. Harbaugh needs a place with an established defense and a quarterback Harbaugh believes he can either revive or put over the top. The physical style of play will come with him. And he'll need to assemble an impressive staff.

Graziano: I do think quarterback is the key, as it is for just about any candidate for any one of these jobs. It doesn't necessarily have to be an elite, top-level quarterback -- Harbaugh did a lot of winning in San Francisco with Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick. But it does have to be someone he can count on and build around. And then that word, "synergy," is a big one, not just with the general manager but with ownership and others in the building.

One thing you do always hear about Harbaugh is that his personality is unique, and that as great a coach as he might be, not everyone who works with him has always thought they meshed with him. I've been told those types of concerns were a factor with Vikings ownership when he went to interview there last year. I do wonder if the recent stories about what's going on with Michigan and NCAA investigators give Harbaugh more urgency to land one of these jobs this year. If so, the question will be whether any of the teams with openings feel as urgent about the need to hire him.

Other head-coach/GM/coordinator rumblings

Graziano:

• Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon impressed the Texans in interviews last year and should be a strong candidate for the job again this year. If he does get that job, I've been told one of the names to watch for his offensive coordinator is Patriots tight ends coach Nick Caley, who has a connection with Texans GM Nick Caserio from Caserio's time in New England.

• Interim GM Ryan Cowden and player personnel director Monti Ossenfort are both internal candidates for the Tennessee Titans' GM job, though they will consider external candidates as well. And in Arizona, in the wake of Steve Keim's departure, it's believed that VP of player personnel Quentin Harris and vice president of pro personnel Adrian Wilson are both candidates for the GM job. The two have been essentially splitting those duties since Keim stepped away, and it's possible they both stay and take on larger roles. Cardinals team owner Michael Bidwill has a history of promoting from within, which is another reason not to dismiss Vance Joseph as a candidate for head coach.

• I do expect some changes at the coordinator level in New England, and I believe there's a real chance Bill Belichick turns to a former assistant, such as Bill O'Brien, to run the offense. Even if that happens, my sense is Belichick would likely find other roles on the coaching staff for Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, who ran the offense this year. I'd be surprised if either of those guys was actually fired, as opposed to reassigned to different roles.

• Two playoff teams have head coaches whose job status is the source of speculation in spite of the fact that they're in the postseason. Those are the Cowboys' Mike McCarthy and the Chargers' Brandon Staley. There's outside chatter that one or both of those guys could be in trouble if their team doesn't make a deep playoff run. Cowboys team owner Jerry Jones strongly backed McCarthy in public comments Tuesday morning, and Jones' recent history with coaches and with late-season comments on their job status indicates we can take him at his word. But an ugly loss Monday Night in Tampa could theoretically change his mind, and people who monitor these things would not be surprised. As for Staley, a one-and-done playoff performance could lead the Chargers to contemplate a change there after just two years, especially if they believe they have a shot at someone like Payton. Just worth watching, is all.

Fowler:

• Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay has permitted his staff to search for other jobs without resistance, multiple sources told ESPN, another sign that the Super Bowl-winning coach might not be on the sidelines in 2023. McVay told coaches in a staff meeting that he doesn't know what he will do next year and won't block coaches who want to explore other opportunities. While teams can't prevent position coaches from interviewing for coordinator jobs, according to league policy changes in 2020, teams maintain the ability to block lateral moves. In this case, the Rams will not do that. The meeting only strengthened the belief among some that McVay will step aside from his Rams duties. He's expected to take time away in the coming days or weeks to sort out his future. McVay's offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, accepted the same job with the University of Kentucky on Tuesday. His defensive coordinator, Raheem Morris, is interviewing for two head-coaching jobs.

• After talking to several industry sources this week, the sentiment I hear a lot is this: If Payton says no to Denver, then Harbaugh will be the lead candidate. Still much to play out, with Denver waiting to talk to Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans and others. But I've continued to hear that Denver has done a lot of research on Harbaugh, talking to people who have worked with him in the past to gauge his coaching style. One official from a team searching for a head coach believes Harbaugh wants the Colts job. No word yet on whether Harbaugh plans to speak with Indy brass, but the connection is obvious for the former Colts quarterback.

• Former Commanders offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who was fired Tuesday, landed on shaky ground in Washington in recent weeks because of late-season struggles. The move wasn't shocking to people in the building. Washington finished 20th in total offense, which isn't bad considering the quarterback flux there. Stories like this probably didn't help. But Turner will have another job in short order. He's a well-respected coach. ... Raiders defensive coordinator Patrick Graham is a name people around the league are watching, as Josh McDaniels could make a potential change there. But there's also a case for him to stay, in that the defensive personnel -- especially in the backfield -- wasn't good enough. That, coupled with Graham's good reputation around the league, could help his cause.

• More coordinator notes: The Jets appear to be torn on Mike LaFleur, a longtime friend of head coach Robert Saleh, who has publicly backed his offensive coordinator. That's a job some around the league are expecting to open, but there's an alternative potentially in play, too -- hiring a senior assistant to aid the offense and help LaFleur. Something will be done after the Jets scored 15 points in the final three games and Zach Wilson failed to develop. Keep in mind, LaFleur is well respected around the league for his play designs and understanding of the Shanahan system. He's a young coach Saleh believes in. But if someone has to take the fall for the Jets' struggles, it could be him. .... Cleveland values head-coaching experience in the process of hiring a defensive coordinator, I'm told. That's why some believe Jim Schwartz and Brian Flores could become favorites.

• Several general manager candidates from the league's acceleration program have received requests to interview for Tennessee and Arizona GM positions, including: Chicago assistant general manager Ian Cunningham, San Francisco director of player personnel Ran Carthon, Cleveland assistant general manager Glenn Cook, Buffalo senior director of pro scouting Malik Boyd and Arizona vice president of player personnel Quentin Harris. That's a good sign, considering the scarcity of jobs open thus far. And many execs from the current program -- such as Trey Brown (Bengals), Brandon Brown (Giants), JoJo Wooden (Chargers), Morocco Brown (Colts), Catherine Raiche (Browns) and Adrian Wilson (Cardinals) -- interviewed during last year's cycle and are proven commodities.

• In other GM candidacy news, here are a few names that haven't surfaced yet this cycle but have helped build playoff rosters this year and could get in the mix -- Bills director of player personnel Terrance Gray, Dolphins co-director of player personnel Adam Engroff, Eagles director of scouting Brandon Hunt, Eagles senior personnel director Dave Caldwell, Ravens director of player personnel Joe Hortiz, Bucs vice president of player personnel John Spytek, Jaguars assistant general manager Ethan Waugh, Seahawks director of pro personnel Nolan Teasley, Vikings senior vice president of player personnel Ryan Grigson, Chiefs assistant GM Mike Borgonzi -- plus Trey Brown, Brandon Brown and Wooden above. (And the vice president of football administration route is largely untapped in GM searches but shouldn't be. The Bucs' Mike Greenberg and the Eagles' Jake Rosenberg are among the most respected here).