Predicting NFL Week 17 upsets, plus weekly buzz, notes

Just two weeks left! The 2022 NFL regular season is nearing the end, as some teams look ahead to the playoffs and others start to focus on an offseason of moves. Four divisions are still up for grabs, and neither conference's No. 1 seed has been clinched. What's on the line over the last two weeks of the season?

NFL insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are here to sort it all out for you. They dive into possible surprises over these final two weeks -- including a prediction around the interesting NFC South race -- and some concerning trends for postseason-bound teams. They also look at which players have the most riding on the next two games on their schedule and offer some quick fixes for two teams that already have been eliminated from the playoffs. And of course, they bring the usual upset picks for this week and fantasy advice for Week 17.

Jump to:
Possible surprises | Most to gain/lose
Worrisome trends | Fixing bad teams
Upsets | Fantasy help | Weekly buzz

What will be the biggest surprise over the NFL regular season's final two weeks?

Graziano: Would the Carolina Panthers winning the NFC South qualify as a surprise at this point? All they have to do is win their final two games and they're division champs with an 8-9 record. That also would make interim head coach Steve Wilks 7-5 since taking over for the fired Matt Rhule, and one would think that would make him a candidate to keep the job full-time.

Carolina is fifth in the league in rushing yards per game since Week 7 (158.1) -- which, oddly, was when it traded Christian McCaffrey to San Francisco -- and it just ran for 320 in Saturday's victory over the previously red-hot Lions. Carolina has found a formula and is playing hard for Wilks. And the first-place Buccaneers look terrible. These two teams now meet Sunday in Tampa with a lot on the line.

Fowler: I'll say Kirk Cousins will strengthen his sneaky MVP case with two more solid performances. The Vikings quarterback has been cooking over his past three games with 1,184 yards and nine touchdown passes. He has guided the Minnesota offense through a barrage of close games, and at 12-3, the Vikings now have a chance to secure a top-two seed in the NFC playoffs. Cousins isn't a trendy name in the MVP race, but maybe he should be.

Which player has the most on the line over these next two weeks?

Fowler: Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots. Maybe Jones should be graded on a curve because of the lack of a true offensive coordinator in New England, but he's on pace to finish the season with fewer than 3,000 passing yards -- a total that would have been just middle of the road in the 1980s. His QBR right now is better than only Baker Mayfield at 32.3, and he carries a 9-8 touchdown-interception ratio. With the Patriots still alive in the AFC playoff hunt, Jones has a chance to punctuate -- or extend -- his season on a high note. Divisional matchups with the Dolphins and Bills await.

Graziano: Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are technically not eliminated from playoff contention yet, though it would take several miracles to get in. They looked terrible on offense in Saturday's loss to the Steelers, and Carr has not had the season that was predicted for him under new coach Josh McDaniels. Carr's 14 interceptions lead the NFL, and his 60.8% completion percentage ranks 31st.

There is no guaranteed money left on Carr's contract after this season, and the Raiders' dead-money charge for 2023 would be a very affordable $5.625 million if they were to cut him. But if he's still on the roster three days after the Super Bowl, his $32.9 million salary for 2023 will become fully guaranteed, as will $7.5 million of his $41.9 million salary for 2024. Does Carr have time to show the Raiders enough to consider keeping him? Will McDaniels want to move on to someone else? Frankly, if they've already decided to cut Carr, it would make some sense to sit him for the final two games, because that $40.4 million in 2023 and 2024 salary is guaranteed against injury, and the Raiders could be on the hook for it if he gets hurt. But if he does get to finish out the season, he's under pressure to show the Raiders something.

Update: The Raiders are benching Carr in Week 17.

What is the most worrisome trend for a playoff-bound team?

Graziano: The Philadelphia Eagles' injuries. We still don't know when quarterback Jalen Hurts will be back from his shoulder injury, or whether it will continue to affect him once he is back on the field. Losing right tackle Lane Johnson and slot corner Avonte Maddox this close to the playoffs is no good, either. Defensive tackle Jordan Davis is hurt again, too. The Eagles are almost certain to go in as the NFC's No. 1 seed and get a much-needed first-round bye to get themselves healthy, but there's a chance they're entering the playoffs too banged up to capitalize on their sensational year.

Fowler: The Baltimore Ravens' passing-game woes. Baltimore has just 2,644 passing yards (28th in the NFL) and has gained at least 15 yards on just 62 pass plays this season (29th). Lamar Jackson's three-game absence hasn't helped, but questions about Baltimore's aerial attack follow it into the playoffs. The Ravens must find ways to manufacture points without receivers Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay.

Here's a bonus one, Dan: How about the Bucs' trend of poor offensive starts? Tampa Bay has scored six or fewer points in four of its past five first halves. You can't expect to just turn it on in the fourth quarter of playoff games.

Eight teams have already been eliminated from the playoffs. Fix one of them with an offseason move that makes sense.

Fowler: Let's go with the Chicago Bears reshaping their defense up front with a splashy free agency move. Chicago GM Ryan Poles should have around $120 million in cap space for 2023, and his defense needs interior strength. Washington defensive tackle Daron Payne would be an ideal fit if the Commanders don't re-sign him. He's 25 years old and coming off a 9.5-sack season.

The Arizona Cardinals also need to spend on or trade for quality offensive linemen. They have to find major upgrades there to protect quarterback Kyler Murray upon his return from a torn ACL.

Graziano: The Houston Texans should trade their second-round pick (likely to be either No. 32 or No. 33 overall) to the San Francisco 49ers for quarterback Trey Lance. If Houston isn't sure about the signal-callers at the top of the draft, this would allow it to bring in a high-upside player who turns 23 in May and has had the benefit of two years' worth of high-level coaching and development in San Francisco. It also would allow the Texans to use their two first-round picks to instead find high-impact helpers on defense and the offensive line.

If the 49ers get to the Super Bowl with Brock Purdy, they're going to be tempted to run it back with him. Getting something in return for Lance as he heads into the third year of his rookie contract would make sense, even if it's far, far, far less than they gave up to get him in the first place.

What's your top upset pick for Week 17?

Graziano: Panthers (+3) over Buccaneers. I went over this a bit earlier, but the Bucs look dead in the water in spite of their late comeback win that Arizona flat-out handed them. Carolina, meanwhile, is playing inspired football. A win here and another in Week 18, and the Panthers steal the NFC South.

Fowler: Texans (+4) over Jaguars. Jacksonville's looming Week 18 matchup with the Titans could take its focus off Houston, which has played Dallas, Kansas City and Tennessee well over the past three weeks. The Texans defeated Jacksonville in Week 5, one of their two wins on the season, and they know how to match up with Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

What's your fantasy football call of the week?

Fowler: Add Eagles quarterback Gardner Minshew. Coming off the bench to throw for 355 yards and two touchdowns last week vs. Dallas was commendable. The Saints are on deck and rank second in pass defense (190.4 pass yards allowed per game), but the Eagles' versatile attack is quarterback friendly regardless of opponent.

Graziano: Have a Derrick Henry backup plan. Three years ago, the Titans sat a relatively healthy Henry against the Saints in their second-to-last game of the season because they realized that winning or losing that game would have no impact on their playoff chances and everything rode on the season finale. Such is the case again this year.

This week's game (on a short week, by the way) against the Cowboys cannot change the fact that Tennessee would win the division with a Week 18 victory over the Jaguars or miss the playoffs with a loss in that game. Sitting its star running back so he's fresh for the team's only remaining important game makes sense. If you're in your fantasy football championship and have been relying on Henry, you might be in for a disappointment.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano

• Despite what the Eagles were saying publicly last week, I don't believe there was ever any consideration given to Jalen Hurts playing against the Cowboys after his shoulder injury was revealed -- and once again, I'd be surprised if he played this week. The Eagles' real decision could end up being whether to give Hurts some game action in Week 18 against the Giants just so he hasn't had five weeks off before their divisional-round playoff game (assuming they secure that No. 1 seed and bye). The impression I get from talking to people about this situation is that the Eagles believe they will have Hurts back before their first playoff game, but they still aren't sure about the extent to which the injury will affect him once he does return.

• Even though the past couple of cycles have been disappointing for Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, I'm hearing his name a lot as someone who will be of interest to teams looking for a head coach this offseason. We weren't hearing his name much at this time last year, and he didn't go for a lot of interviews after the season. But I'd be very surprised if he didn't get at least an interview in Denver, and there are a lot of people I talk to about the coaching carousel who believe this could finally be the year Bienemy gets his shot. I'm not sure what has changed since last year -- maybe the Chiefs' ability to maintain their high level of offensive performance without Tyreek Hill -- but for some reason he sounds like he's more popular on the circuit this time around.

• You're going to start to hear a lot of chatter about former Texans coach Bill O'Brien being the next offensive coordinator of the Patriots, and it would make a lot of sense assuming Bill Belichick (A) wants to return for 2023, and (B) he believes he needs to make changes to his offensive staff. O'Brien was on the New England staff from 2007 to '11, serving as offensive coordinator in 2011, and he fits the critical description of a coach Belichick trusts. He'd have to leave his current post at Alabama, which is playing in the Sugar Bowl on Saturday, but it's not out of the question. As for Matt Patricia and Joe Judge (who were appointed this year to head up the offense in spite of their past credentials being mainly on defense and special teams), my guess is Belichick would find other roles on the staff for them because he does believe in them as coaches and values trust above pretty much anything else when looking for assistants.

Fowler

• Jets coach Robert Saleh says Zach Wilson is still a part of the franchise's future after the QB was benched a second time last week. Others around the league aren't so sure, believing there's no going back. "They have a major problem," an NFL coordinator said. "His confidence is shot, and he's not seeing it [on the field]. The New York fans are brutal. Maybe going somewhere else can help him get his confidence back up." The Jets are in a precarious spot. Giving up on a No. 2 overall pick after 22 career starts is bad business. Trading him for a late-round draft pick -- assuming his value is not high -- might be worse business. But it's also hard to foresee the Jets going into 2023 with Wilson as the starter as it stands. "I think they do everything possible to trade him -- but I think they wait until maybe even the preseason or into the regular season to get his value up," an NFC exec said. "There's nothing right now that says a team wants the Zach Wilson experiment and will trade a draft pick for him. But it could be a Baker Mayfield-type situation [with the Rams] where a team has injuries at the position and needs a spot starter."

• Here are a couple of early nuggets on the Broncos' coaching search. Yes, many around the league expect Denver to at least check on Sean Payton and possibly make a major run at him. While it's the worst-kept secret that Payton has interest in the Chargers job, Brandon Staley just secured a playoff berth for L.A. with two regular-season games remaining. Several top candidates who interviewed with Denver last year -- including Dan Quinn, Brian Callahan and Jerod Mayo -- could meet with the team once again. And don't be surprised if the new ownership group is heavily involved. Last year, GM George Paton was driving the search. But multiple industry sources expect CEO George Penner to loom large in the decision-making.