There are no perfect football players. Even the best players in their best NFL seasons will not do everything at the highest level.
This is especially true for quarterbacks. We have so many stats now that we can track quarterbacks in different situations and against different coverages and amounts of pressure. Whether it is third down, man coverage or facing a blitz, we know NFL quarterbacks have weaknesses.
I delved deep into our data at Football Outsiders (as well as ESPN Stats & Information's numbers) to identify weaknesses for the starting quarterbacks of all 32 teams. The resulting numbers combine Football Outsiders DVOA and ESPN Total QBR, incorporating ESPN charting and NFL Next Gen Stats tracking. Some of these weaknesses are issues these players have been dealing with for years. Other weaknesses have only appeared in 2022 and, in some cases, are directly counter to the player's stat splits in previous seasons.
Let's start with AFC quarterbacks.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Jackson's weakness is that he struggles when he needs to throw the ball on third down, with his DVOA consistently ranking lower for third-down passes than for his passing overall. Through Week 12, Baltimore ranked 19th on third-down passes compared with seventh on all passes. Last year, Baltimore was a horrid 28th on third-down passes compared with 16th on all passes. Jackson is reportedly dealing with a PCL sprain in his knee and could miss the next two games, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
One of Allen's relative weaknesses is facing the blitz. He is not the worst quarterback in the league when opponents blitz, but there's definitely a drop-off compared with other plays. This year, Allen has a 66.0 QBR against the blitz, which ranks 17th in the league. Last year, he had a 56.1 QBR against the blitz, which was 23rd. And by comparison, Allen ranks first in the league with a 77.0 QBR on non-blitzes and was second in those situations last season. A big problem with the blitz is that Allen's accuracy goes awry. He has a 24.2% off-target percentage this year when blitzed, 31st out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow is much stronger against man coverage compared with zone coverage this season. He ranks 18th with a 48.9 QBR against zone, compared with ranking ninth with a 70.8 QBR against man. The splits in 2021 were similar but smaller: 58.7 (13th) against zone and 73.6 (11th) against man.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
It's hard to find a specific Watson weakness when you go back two years to the 2020 Houston Texans. Watson was good against blitzes and standard pass rushes, against pressure or no pressure, on deep and short passes, and on passes in every direction. The one weakness came on third downs. Houston ranked eighth in pass DVOA overall but just 16th on third and fourth downs.
Watson has played two games this year after an 11-game suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy by committing sexual assault as defined by the league. In those two games, he is struggling on third downs and would rank next-to-last if he had enough pass attempts to qualify for ranking. However, this isn't a problem that has lasted Watson's entire career. For example, in 2019, Watson was better on third down than on first or second down.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Contrary to popular belief, Wilson has not been horrible at everything this season. He is throwing deep (16-plus air yards) more than any other quarterback, and those throws have been productive. Wilson ranks 10th in DVOA on deep throws. The problem has been the shorter throws. On those passes, Wilson ranks 29th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks. Maybe that's why Wilson and the Broncos have struggled so much in the red zone this season: There's no fear of a deeper throw when you don't have as much field to work with.
Davis Mills, Houston Texans
Mills has been horrible passing on third downs, when passing is most important (and most expected by the defense). This year, Mills has a minus-63.4% DVOA on third downs, the second lowest in the league for a quarterback with at least 20 third-down passes. (Baker Mayfield is the worst at minus-69.3%.) Last year, Mills was better but still had minus-23.8% DVOA on third downs compared with only minus-2.7% on first and second downs.
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts
Get Ryan out of the pocket and he's toast. Ryan has a minuscule 2.4 QBR, the worst in the league, on plays where he's forced out of the pocket this season. But this might be related more to the Colts' offense than to Ryan himself. Last season in Atlanta, Ryan actually ranked eighth with a 73.1 QBR when forced out of the pocket ... while Carson Wentz in Indianapolis was 28th out of 31 quarterbacks with a 24.9 QBR outside the pocket.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence has struggled this year when defenses disguise coverage before the snap. So far, he has been in for 108 plays that ESPN charting marks as "disguised coverage" and has a 25.3 QBR on those plays, 30th out of 31 quarterbacks. This was also a problem for Lawrence during his rookie year, when he ranked 27th with a 39.2 QBR on plays with disguised coverage.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes does not have any absolute weaknesses, only relative weaknesses. The biggest this year is probably against pass pressure. With no pressure, Mahomes leads the NFL with an 86.6 QBR, and Jalen Hurts is the only other quarterback over 80. But with pass pressure, Mahomes is sixth in QBR at 48.1.
This weakness is a flip from last season. In 2021, Mahomes was just ninth in QBR without pass pressure (72.4) but ranked third behind Dak Prescott and Josh Allen in QBR with pass pressure (56.7).
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
Carr has struggled in the fourth quarter this season, which is one of the reasons the Raiders have blown all those big leads. He ranks 24th with a minus-22.5% passing DVOA in the fourth quarter. What's interesting about this one is that it runs so counter to the rest of Carr's career. Carr has an excellent record in the fourth quarter, especially in the fourth quarter of one-score games. In 2021, he had a 32.1% DVOA in the fourth quarter of one-score games. It was 21.4% in 2020 and 38.2% in 2019.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert tends to struggle in the second half of games. That sounds wrong -- given that we all remember Herbert connecting on fourth down after fourth down late in the game against Las Vegas that closed last year's regular season -- but it's true.
This year, Herbert has a 14.6% passing DVOA before halftime. That would rank sixth in the NFL on its own. After halftime, he drops to minus-18.2% DVOA. That would rank 28th.
This was also a problem in Herbert's first two years, although less of one. Herbert's passing DVOA dropped from 23.4% before halftime to 12.3% after halftime in 2021. It dropped from 22.8% before halftime to minus-2.8% after halftime in 2020.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
The Miami passing game was so strong this year -- until the past two games -- that it's hard to find a split where Tagovailoa really shows a weakness without dipping into smaller sample sizes. However, he has had an issue with Cover 4 "quarters" coverage this season. We're talking about just 40 pass plays, but Tagovailoa's 18.6 QBR against Cover 4 ranks 27th among starting quarterbacks. This looks like a small-sample fluke, especially when we consider that in 2021 -- when his overall performance was nowhere near as good -- Tagovailoa was one of the league's best quarterbacks against Cover 4 with an 84.8 QBR.
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
This one is a little weird. Jones is horrendous throwing to the left side of the field this year. He ranks 32nd out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in DVOA on throws to the left side. By comparison, Jones ranks 11th on throws to the right side. This is a wild one-year split that doesn't make much sense, especially because, as a rookie, Jones was better at throwing to the left side than the right side.
Mike White, New York Jets
We have only a three-game sample on White, but he has struggled so far on shorter throws. White has a 23.0 QBR on passes behind the line of scrimmage, which ranks 27th out of 49 quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts. His QBR on passes of 0-9 air yards is 31.6, which ranks 46th in the same group. By comparison, his QBR of 91.2 on passes of 10 or more air yards ranks seventh. This weakness so far this year is interesting because those short passes were a strength for White in his limited playing time a year ago. Not the passes behind the line of scrimmage, but the ones of 0-9 air yards. White had a 66.2 QBR on those passes in 2021.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pickett's relative weakness this year has been a poor performance when not pressured. Of course, Pickett has a lower QBR when pressured because nearly every quarterback has a lower QBR when pressured. However, Pickett ranks 13th in the league with a 24.9 QBR with pass pressure. But he's 28th out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks with a 49.6 QBR when he's not pressured.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
Tannehill's problem is that the Tennessee passing game just isn't as good without the threat of the run to occupy the defense. Tannehill is consistently not as strong on second and third down compared to first down.
This year, the Titans rank third in the league in pass DVOA on first downs. But they drop to 25th on second downs and 22nd on third downs. Last year was not as extreme, but the Titans went from 12th in passing DVOA on first downs to 19th on second downs and 25th on third downs. Even in 2020, when the Titans' offense was phenomenal, we saw similar trends (third on first and second downs, but seventh on third downs).
NFC
Colt McCoy, Arizona Cardinals
For new starter McCoy, a clear weakness is throwing against zone coverage. Over the past two seasons, McCoy has a 36.5 QBR against zone coverage, which ranks 39th among 51 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts in 2021-22. By comparison, McCoy has a 78.8 QBR against man coverage, which ranks fourth behind only Allen, Taysom Hill (!) and Mahomes.
Kyler Murray, who suffered a season-ending torn ACL on Monday vs. the Patriots, was horrendous this season on deep throws, defined as passes over 15 yards through the air. He is one of only two quarterbacks with a negative DVOA on deep throws. What's remarkable about this weakness in 2022 is that it was a massive strength just a year ago; Murray led the NFL in DVOA on deep throws in 2021.
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
Since Ridder has yet to play this season, we have to go back to last year's college stats. At Cincinnati, he was not as strong against man coverage compared to zone. Ridder had a 59.5 QBR against man coverage with just a 49.4% completion rate, compared to a 75.3 QBR against zone looks with a 65.7% completion rate. He was better against man coverage in 2020, however, with a 68.4 QBR.
As for previous starter Marcus Mariota, you might have read that the Falcons replaced him with Ridder because of problems with deep passes. But Mariota also had trouble this year completing the easy passes behind the line of scrimmage. His completion rate of 75% and CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) of minus-10% are both the lowest in the league on passes behind the line.
Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
We'll learn more about Darnold looking at last year's 12 games than looking at this year's two. And last year, Carolina was by far the worst passing team on third and fourth downs. The Panthers had a minus-56.9% DVOA on third and fourth downs with Darnold as their primary quarterback in 2021. No other offense was below minus-31%.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Fields' biggest weakness is simple: He takes too many sacks. It will probably surprise you to learn that the Bears currently rank second in ESPN Analytics' pass block win rate. Yet the Bears also have the worst adjusted sack rate in the league. In fact, Chicago has a 12.6% ASR, and no other offense is above 10%.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott has had trouble using the middle of the field this season. He is above average on passes to both the left and right sides of the field but ranks just 26th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in DVOA on passes to the middle. The good news is that this has not been a long-lasting problem. It seems to be just a 2022 issue, as Prescott has been above-average passing to the middle of the field in other seasons.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Goff has been surprisingly productive in 2022, ranking third in Football Outsiders' passing DYAR. But he still struggles to throw deep passes to the outside. His QBR on deep passes (16-plus air yards) outside the numbers is 39.1, which ranks 28th among qualifying quarterbacks. He was much better on these passes in 2021 with a 62.8 QBR -- but that still ranked him 23rd in the league.
For a comparison, Goff's QBR on deep passes between the numbers is 98.3, tied for seventh in the NFL.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers has a problem with short throws this season, a problem that's more about throws of a few yards than about screen passes behind the line of scrimmage. If we look at passes that travel between 1 and 10 air yards, Rodgers ranks just 30th in QBR. He also has a minus-3.3% CPOE on these passes. As you can imagine, this is a big change from Rodgers' MVP seasons. Last year, Rodgers was third in QBR on these same throws.
Baker Mayfield, Los Angeles Rams
As for Mayfield, everything was a weakness when he was in Carolina earlier this year, but third downs stand out. Mayfield's minus-69.3% DVOA this year on third or fourth down is the worst for any quarterback who has thrown at least 25 passes on those downs. This was also a problem in Cleveland in 2021, as Mayfield was average on first and second downs but ranked 29th in DVOA out of 32 quarterbacks with at least 80 throws on third and fourth downs (minus-40.1% DVOA).
Matthew Stafford's statistics show a number of weaknesses in 2022. The problem is that most of those were not weaknesses in 2021. It's hard to find something "real" when Stafford's entire production collapsed this season. For example, Stafford was one of the league's worst quarterbacks in the fourth quarter of games this year. But in 2021, he was one of the best QBs in the fourth quarter. Stafford struggled throwing deep this year but was great there in 2021.
Probably the most "real" weakness for Stafford is that he's comparatively much worse under pressure. This year, Stafford's QBR ranked 22nd without pressure but 24th with pressure. Last year, Stafford was second in QBR without pressure but dropped to 14th with pressure. And in Detroit in 2020, Stafford ranked 14th in QBR without pressure but dropped to 23rd with pressure.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Cousins has problems with zone coverage -- and has consistently had these problems for years. This has actually been less of an issue in 2022 than in the past couple of seasons, although that's less because of strong performance against zone and more because Cousins' QBR against man coverage is his lowest since the ESPN database of coverages began in 2016. Take a look at his year-by-year splits:
2022: 56.3 QBR vs. zone, 60.3 QBR vs. man
2021: 41.5 QBR vs. zone, 80.8 QBR vs. man
2020: 43.8 QBR vs. zone, 78.3 QBR vs. man
2019: 62.4 QBR vs. zone, 65.5 QBR vs. man
Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints
Dalton appears to struggle specifically with Cover 3 defenses. This year, he has a 30.0 QBR against Cover 3, which ranks him 29th among qualifying quarterbacks. He didn't have enough pass attempts to qualify for the ranking in the previous two seasons but had 40.8 QBR against Cover 3 in 2021 and 21.1 QBR there in 2020.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Jones is the exact opposite of New England quarterback Mac Jones. Daniel Jones has had difficulty throwing to his right side this year. Throwing to the left side, Jones is a top-10 quarterback with a 30.6% DVOA. Throwing in the middle of the field, he's even better, with a 40.4% DVOA. But throwing to the right, Jones is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL with a 1.4% DVOA.
Unlike with Mac Jones, there is some evidence this split is not just a one-year fluke. The difference between left and right for Daniel Jones was much smaller in past years, but for three years, he has been better throwing to his left than throwing to his right.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
This is a surprise because he is such a dangerous scrambler, but Hurts has been only an average quarterback under pressure this season. Without pressure, Hurts has an 82.4 QBR, which ranks second in the NFL. With pressure, Hurts drops to 25.5 in QBR, which ranks 12th. Take out scrambles, and Hurts drops even further to 10.7, which ranks 22nd in the league.
However, performance under pressure is generally less consistent than performance from a clean pocket, and Hurts is no exception. In 2021, Hurts ranked sixth in the league with a 49.7 QBR under pressure.
Hurts is also a good example of how weaknesses can be addressed, especially for young quarterbacks. Last year, Hurts was poor at throwing to the middle of the field and threw to the middle less than any other starting quarterback. But this year, Hurts is above average on throws to the middle and passes there with an average frequency (40% of his throws).
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Purdy was called upon when Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a broken left foot in Week 13. It's hard to find a weakness in a player who has essentially played only two games, but it's worth noting that Purdy's value this year is heavily dependent on third downs. Purdy is below average if we look only at first and second downs, with minus-4.7% DVOA. But he has been awesome on third downs, with 64.5% DVOA -- which would rank third among quarterbacks if Purdy had enough pass attempts to qualify.
This is absolutely wild given what we know about the San Francisco offense and how it is structured, but Garoppolo struggled this year on play-action passes. Garoppolo had just a 26.7 QBR on these plays, tied for 29th in the league. Accuracy was part of the problem, as Garoppolo has a minus-2.7% CPOE on play-action passes. He is fifth in the league with a 64.4 QBR on non-play-action passes.
However, it seems that this is a one-year fluke. Garoppolo had a 67.0 QBR on play-action passes in 2021, higher than his 54.7 QBR on other passes.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Smith has not been good in the red zone this season, perhaps because he can't take advantage of the speed of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf when there are less than 20 yards to the end zone. Seattle ranks 22nd in team passing DVOA in the red zone, and Smith has a completion rate of just 55%. He has thrown 14 touchdowns in the red zone, but six of them have come right at the start of the red zone, between the opponent's 17- and 20-yard lines. One good thing, however, is that Smith has yet to throw an interception inside the 20.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brady does not get pressured very often, but he has really struggled with pass pressure this season. Brady's QBR of 65.2 without pressure ranks 15th among qualifying quarterbacks, but his QBR with pressure is just 9.1, which ranks 29th. What's interesting is that Brady has struggled so much with pressure but not with blitzes. In fact, Brady currently has an 85.6 QBR against the blitz, which is the second highest in the league. So when Brady is pressured by the standard four pass-rushers he's even worse, with a QBR of 6.8 and CPOE of minus-16.4%.
Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders
Heinicke's biggest weakness is that his throws are off target. ESPN charting rates him as throwing off-target on 21.6% of passes, which is the worst rate for qualifying quarterbacks (tied with Houston's Mills).