Predicting NFL Week 15 upsets, plus weekly buzz, notes

We've reached the portion of the NFL season when letters have begun accompanying the numerical records in the league standings, with teams both securing postseason berths and clinching mathematical elimination ahead of the 2022 NFL playoffs. The sealing of postseason fates means a discussion of what comes next for teams on both sides of the divide, and ESPN insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler discussed the potential fortunes of the 12-1, playoff-bound Philadelphia Eagles as well as the three teams that have now been separated from the Super Bowl tournament discussion.

Also part of this week's back-and-forth between Graz and Fowler is an update on the 2022 NFL Coach of the Year race, a chat about the apparent crisis facing the Tennessee Titans and our experts' usual spate of upset picks and fantasy advice.

Jump to:
Eagles postseason | Eliminated teams
Coach of the year | Titans in crisis?
Upsets | Fantasy start/sit | Weekly buzz

The Philadelphia Eagles (12-1) have clinched a playoff berth and will likely have a permanent place on the Super Bowl LVII contender shortlist. What's your biggest remaining question about them?

Graziano: Really, the same one I have about the other top contenders in the NFC, which is only whether they have the killer instinct they need to win in the postseason. We don't know that about the Cowboys, or really about this version of the 49ers. And we won't for another month and a half. But the Eagles are set up, assuming they hold on and get this first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. With Jordan Davis back, the run defense is better, and that was a potential Achilles' heel. They don't have obvious weaknesses. The only question I have is whether they can win in the postseason, and there's only one way for them to answer that.

Fowler: Dan, as far as roster construction and the number of ways they can beat you, the Eagles don't have much to nitpick. They are balanced, their line play is great, they can beat you with the run or the pass, and they can shut down receivers with their secondary. My biggest question still lies with Jalen Hurts, who, yes, deserves a ton of credit for his third-year growth, strengthening his MVP campaign by the week. But in the playoffs, when the game tightens and good defenses restrict Philly's RPO-heavy offense, can Hurts read the whole field from the pocket and deliver? I'm not saying he can't, but that's a question I still need answered, and many evaluators around the league are wondering the same thing. The Bucs made him do it in the playoffs last year, and he struggled mightily. He seems like a different quarterback now.

Three teams, meanwhile, have been eliminated from playoff contention -- the Texans, Bears and Broncos. Of these three, who has the most realistic turnaround potential for 2023?

Fowler: It's close between the Bears and Broncos. I'm going Broncos because the defense is among the league's best, and the second year with Russell Wilson under center has to improve, right? Denver's offense has been decimated by injuries, Wilson included. It's easy to forget because of this year's struggles, but just a few months ago, the Broncos' roster was considered a strength under GM George Paton. And if the Broncos move on from Nathaniel Hackett, a Wilson-friendly system could maximize the talent there. The Bears and GM Ryan Poles are loaded up on cap space and draft picks -- the latter of which Denver doesn't have, because of the Wilson deal -- to rebuild both sides of the ball, so Chicago's case is compelling here.

Graziano: Bears. If we are buying into the idea of Justin Fields as a franchise QB (and I think we've seen enough this year to at least make us optimistic on that), then the Bears are set up to quickly build around him .They project to have upwards of $125 million in cap space they can use on the offensive line, at wide receiver and on defense -- all areas where they need help. A smart, targeted offseason by Poles, combined with that level of financial flexibility, portends a quick rebound in Chicago.

What's the current state of your NFL coach of the year ballot?

Graziano: 1. Nick Sirianni, 2. Brian Daboll, 3. Mike McDaniel, 4. Kevin O'Connell. 5. Robert Saleh. The last time we did this, I had Mike Vrabel at the top, but the way the Titans have played since has seen him tumble out of my top five. Sirianni's Eagles have met every challenge and stayed at the top of the league all year long. Daboll and Saleh have elevated moribund New York teams into contention. McDaniel and O'Connell energized offenses in Miami and Minnesota and elevated those teams into contention as well. I'm wondering whether Dan Campbell gets himself into this conversation if the Lions keep surging. Or if McDaniel tumbles out if the Dolphins keep sliding.

Fowler: 1. Nick Sirianni, 2. Ron Rivera 3. Kevin O'Connell, 4. Mike McDaniel, 5. Brian Daboll/Robert Saleh. Lots of NFC East flavor here. Rivera splashes into my top five after the Commanders' 6-1-1 run with a backup quarterback. Rivera's job is one of the most understated of the year and should be acknowledged.

At least eight names deserve major consideration. What about Mike McCarthy? Reaching 10 wins by mid-December under the Dallas spotlight should be commended. And in the AFC North, Baltimore's John Harbaugh and Cincinnati's Zac Taylor have done solid jobs to keep their squads together, finding different ways to win. In the end, Sirianni is outdistancing the crowd here. The Eagles impose their will every Sunday, no matter the opponent, and that's a credit to the coaching staff. O'Connell is firmly cemented in the top three. Who cares about the Vikings' poor point differential? He has shifted the culture there. McDaniel, Saleh and Daboll are all hanging around despite the recent slides. All three are overachievers so far.

The Tennessee Titans appear in turmoil after the surprise firing of GM Jon Robinson was followed by a poor home performance against the Jaguars. On a scale of 1 to 10, how worried should we be about the Titans?

Fowler: 6.5. This is largely an endorsement of Mike Vrabel, who is 48-30 in five seasons and never has lost more than seven games in a season since being hired in 2018. He will keep the Titans competitive, and in a one-game-playoff setting, I like the Titans' chances to scheme up a win. But Tennessee doesn't seem like a true contender, based largely on the offensive setup. The offense is built around Derrick Henry, who, if removing his 50-yard run vs. Jacksonville last week, is averaging 3.06 yards per carry over the past five games (279 yards on 91 attempts). That's a problem for an offense that ranks 31st in passing (sure, injuries along the offensive line play a part). In the offseason, the new general manager must decide on massive 2023 cap hits for Ryan Tannehill ($36.3 million) and Henry ($15.8 million). It seems like a good time for Vrabel and the Titans to reinvent the offense. Can they keep giving Henry the ball 300-plus times per year and hope for the best? The defense has the pieces to remain solid for the foreseeable future.

Graziano: 6. I have a fair bit of faith in Vrabel getting this thing straightened out enough to win the AFC South, but that's about it. The Titans are the seventh-worst scoring offense and the fourth-worst offense in yards per game this year. They've given up 35 more points than they've scored this year, and their defense has generally been pretty good. Only once all year have they scored more than 24 in a game, and that was when they scored 27 in a Thursday night game against the Packers. They have not won since. I don't see where the points are coming from, which means they'll have to win tight games with their defense. That's a tough way to live, and it doesn't portend postseason success in this league in 2022-23.

What's your top upset pick for Week 15?

Graziano: Ravens (+2.5) over Browns. No, I don't know who's going to play quarterback for the Ravens on Saturday. But I do know who's going to play quarterback for the Browns on Saturday, and he doesn't look very good right now. Baltimore finds a way, and with Cincinnati breathing down their necks, I think the Ravens take care of a checked-out Browns team.

Fowler: Falcons (+4) over Saints. I have a feeling Desmond Ridder will provide a spark to the Atlanta offense, with Falcons coach Arthur Smith dialing up more shots downfield off play-action. After averaging 17.6 points per game over the past five games, Atlanta's offense is due. I wonder if the Saints' hangover from the ugly loss to Tampa Bay will linger here. I also like Pittsburgh (+2.5) over Carolina.

What's your fantasy football call of the week?

Fowler: Play Chigoziem Okonkwo as a sleeper TE or flex. The Titans rookie is coming alive with 16 targets in his past three games, which he has turned into 13 catches for 148 yards and one touchdown. With the running game struggling, Tennessee is searching for answers on offense. Okonkwo is here to help.

Graziano: If you're like me and lost Kyler Murray on the eve of the playoffs, you could do worse than looking at Patriots QB Mac Jones as a streaming option this week against the Raiders. Vegas is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, and Baker Mayfield just went right down the field on them twice in crunch time 48 hours after getting off a plane. The Patriots' offense isn't much to write home about, but the Raiders can be had, and we know Jones is lobbying the coaches to let him throw it.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano

• I continue to hear that Carolina Panthers team owner David Tepper is looking for a head coach with previous NFL head coaching experience. The thing about this is he already has one. Carolina is 4-4 since former Cardinals coach Steve Wilks took over as interim head coach following the firing of Matt Rhule. But the Panthers have won three of their past four and are actually live in the extremely disappointing race for the NFC South title. At 5-8, Carolina is one game back of first-place Tampa Bay, and its remaining four games are all against teams with losing records -- the Steelers, Lions, Bucs and Saints. The Panthers are clearly playing hard for Wilks. If he wins the division, would he have a chance to convince Tepper to keep him in the job? The list of potential candidates I've heard includes the likes of Marvin Lewis, Dan Quinn, Leslie Frazier, Frank Reich and of course everyone's Hail Mary, Sean Payton. I also think you'll hear the names of some of the popular offensive coordinators connected with Carolina. Assuming, of course, they don't just keep Wilks. That seemed like a serious long shot when Rhule got fired, but it seems less like that now.

• I do not get the sense that the two other disappointing coaches in the NFC South, Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles and New Orleans' Dennis Allen, are on shaky ground, but it wouldn't surprise me if both of them (assuming they're kept) made the kinds of coaching staff changes they didn't make when they ascended to their posts last offseason. The Tampa situation is especially interesting because of all the unknowns around Tom Brady. If he decides he wants to stay in Tampa (and they decide they want to keep him), he could have some input in what happens with the offensive coaching staff. If he retires or decides to play elsewhere, the decisions about how to build the offense could be much different, depending on whom the Bucs get to play quarterback.

• The Jets seem likely to have to play without star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams this week, but his calf injury doesn't sound like it's the kind of thing that will keep him out for an extended period of time. As for QB Mike White, the team believes it'll be a pain tolerance issue for him with his rib injury, and the expectation is he'll be able to start the game this week against the Lions.

Fowler

• Several NFL teams believe Odell Beckham Jr. is leaning toward sitting out the entire 2022 regular season and postseason and signing with his new team at the start of free agency in March, sources told ESPN. Executives whose teams have done their homework on Beckham expect him to wait because, as one put it, "he'll be the prize"" of the free agent receiver class. Beckham isn't expected to be ready to play football until the playoffs, and joining a new team and offense for a playoff run comes with injury risk. Leaguewide attrition at the position could change the outlook and prompt a team to sign Beckham to a strong offer this year. The Chiefs could be among teams in this category, though they could be getting Mecole Hardman back from IR this week and would be at full strength at receiver. The Cowboys and Bills, who recently hosted Beckham on visits, signed veteran receivers T.Y. Hilton and Cole Beasley, respectively, this week, but those moves wouldn't preclude them from signing another receiver. It's just that the tea leaves are telling teams that Beckham might not be a realistic option this year

• A few QB nuggets: The 49ers coach who did a lot of homework on starter Brock Purdy in the 2022 draft was quarterbacks coach Brian Griese, who left the ESPN broadcast booth to join Kyle Shanahan's staff. He was a big proponent of Purdy, who some scouts tell me had among the best intangibles in the quarterback class. ... The biggest issue with Jets quarterback White's rib injury is soreness. He felt the injury Monday. But this is not considered a major injury that will keep him out of the lineup. He just has to manage the pain and hope it subsides later in the week. ... Tyler Huntley is optimistic he can work through the concussion protocol in time to start Saturday for the Ravens vs. the Browns. He's feeling good early in the week.

• Houston has become a spot to watch as the coaching carousel nears. Some people around the league believe Texans coach Lovie Smith could be on shaky ground after this year's one-win performance. Moving on from minority head coaches in back-to-back years wouldn't be the best look for Houston and GM Nick Caserio, whose Texans teams are 5-24-1 since he took over the job. But the Texans have regressed on the field. Should the Texans move on, watch for Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon. Caserio was believed to be very high on him during last year's interview cycle. ... In other coaching news, expect Rams OC Liam Coen to finish the NFL season before joining the University of Kentucky staff in the same position, which our Chris Mortensen reported. Coen's deal with UK is not finalized, and the expectation is he coaches the Rams' final four games. Coen isn't the only Rams staffer with high-level college interest. Assistant head coach/tight ends coach Thomas Brown and defensive line/run game coordinator Eric Henderson received Power 5 head coaching consideration this cycle, with Arizona State and Georgia Tech, respectively.