You know it's Week 14 when you show up in Pittsburgh for Ravens-Steelers and you blink and all of a sudden, the quarterback matchup is Anthony Brown vs. Mitch Trubisky.
Brett Rypien ended up playing meaningful snaps for the Broncos in a close game against the Chiefs. Sam Darnold led Carolina to a victory over Geno Smith and the Seahawks. The Texans spent the whole game flipping between Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel and came this close to beating the Cowboys. Heck, Week 14 started with Baker Mayfield walking off an airplane and leading the Rams to victory on his second day with the team.
And of course, there was Brock Purdy.
The final pick in this year's NFL draft became the third player to start at quarterback for the 49ers this season, taking over after Jimmy Garoppolo's likely season-ending foot injury the week before. Purdy became the first player since the immortal Luke Falk in 2019 to make his first career NFL start at quarterback against Tom Brady.
How did he do?
Well, let's start the overreactions there and you can be the judge.
The 49ers' offense is better with Brock Purdy than it was with Jimmy Garoppolo
Purdy was incredible, and the 49ers absolutely blasted Brady and the Buccaneers. Purdy threw two touchdown passes and ran for another touchdown in the second quarter alone as the Niners built a 28-0 halftime lead that became 35-0 shortly after the third quarter began. He ended the game 16-for-21 for 185 yards and the two touchdown passes, and he basically didn't have to play in the fourth quarter because the game was sealed.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
At some point, if I keep writing and saying the same stuff about the 49ers every week, someone's going to listen. They are a very good team. They are one of the three or so teams in the NFC with a really good shot to get to the Super Bowl. I believed that to be the case when Trey Lance was their quarterback, when Jimmy Garoppolo was their quarterback and I believe it with Brock Purdy as their quarterback. Last week, in this column, we said it was an overreaction to believe the Niners were in trouble as a result of the Garoppolo injury, because this team was never going to be about the quarterback. If you liked the Niners' chances before Garoppolo got hurt, you still should. If you didn't, you still shouldn't.
They will go as far as their defense, run game and coaching will take them. Purdy's performance shouldn't be a shock to anyone who's watched anyone play quarterback for Kyle Shanahan over the past decade-plus. And while it's risky to go into the playoffs with a seventh-round rookie starting at quarterback for you, it's risky to go into the playoffs with Garoppolo as your starter, too. Always has been. These Niners are very good, but they're no better or worse with Purdy than they were with Garoppolo. Good for him for playing the way we should have expected him to play in this system.
The Cowboys are overrated, and got lucky to beat the Texans
Dallas was a 17-point favorite over Houston on Sunday, so the fact that the Cowboys trailed 20-17 at halftime and 23-20 in the final minutes of the game was certainly alarming. If you want to be considered a Super Bowl favorite and you pull a matchup against the worst team in the league in Week 14, you're expected to hammer that team. The Cowboys did not hammer the Texans. Their vaunted defense gave up 327 yards and 23 points to a team that averages 283 yards and 16 points per game. They turned the ball over three times. They won the game, but they did not look the part of a team that's going to make a run in January against the likes of the Eagles, Vikings and 49ers. At best, you could say they escaped with a win.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
We aren't in the business of denigrating victories here, folks. Yes, I am surprised the Cowboys didn't roll past the Texans the way they rolled past the Colts last week. But they did win the game, and if you can win games when you don't play your best, that's a point in your favor, not against you. Yes, they will have to play better in January than they did Sunday. But we've seen the Cowboys play at an elite level at times this year, so there's no reason to believe they can't.
The NFC playoffs are going to be eye-opening for a lot of teams. I believe the Cowboys, the Eagles and the 49ers are all very good teams. What we don't know about them -- any of them -- is whether they have that killer playoff instinct they'll need to finish off games in the postseason. Last year's 49ers beat last year's Cowboys (and last year's Packers) in the playoffs, but they couldn't get past the Rams. And the Eagles and Cowboys, as good as they look, are both unknowns once the playoffs start. If you want to doubt the Cowboys because they always seem to mess it up come January, fine. Their track record has earned that. But I say we can't have any idea, as we sit here, who's going to the Super Bowl from the NFC. And I also say Dallas has as good a chance as any of them.
Jared Goff will lead the Lions to the playoffs this year and be their starting QB next year, too
Time for some Lions love. They took care of business Sunday against the first-place Minnesota Vikings, rolling up 464 yards, converting 7 of 15 third downs, not turning the ball over and protecting their lead like a team used to playing with one. Goff was 27-for-39 for 330 yards and three touchdowns, including one to rookie Jameson Williams, who was playing in his second game back from injury and could be a difference-maker over the season's final month if they can work him into an already strong offense. Detroit has won five of its last six games to improve to 6-7 for the season, and that puts them right on the fringe of the NFC playoff race, a game-and-a-half behind the seventh-seeded Giants with four weeks to go. The Lions' remaining games are at the Jets, at the Panthers, home to the Bears and at the Packers. You telling me 10-7 is out of reach?
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Look, man ... somebody's got to get that 7-seed in the NFC, and are you feeling super great about the Seahawks, Commanders or Giants? It is absolutely NOT out of the question that the Lions rally to reach this year's playoffs. And while they have two first-round picks in 2023, including that of the woeful Rams, it's no sure thing they feel they have to use one on a quarterback. Sure, it's possible, but remember, Detroit's GM, Brad Holmes, was with the Rams when they drafted Goff and has always liked him. The Lions have built a strong offensive line and have quality depth at wide receiver and running back. They beef up the defense, they could look scary in short order. If you think the 49ers can win with Garoppolo or Purdy or whomever at quarterback, why can't the Lions win with Goff if they build up everything around him the way San Francisco has?
Baker Mayfield will be the Rams' starting quarterback in 2023
We had to throw it back to Thursday for this one, as it's worth remembering that this week's weirdest story was the one where the Rams claimed Baker Mayfield on waivers Tuesday afternoon, he flew to Los Angeles on Tuesday night and led the Rams to a comeback victory over the Raiders with a pair of touchdown drives in the final minutes Thursday night. Score one for adrenaline, I guess?
Verdict: OVERREACTION
There is a lot of uncertainty about next year's Rams. Will Matthew Stafford 's neck injury turn out to be so serious that he considers retirement? Will Aaron Donald really retire this time around? Will Sean McVay get the network TV offer he can't refuse this year? The answer to all three of those questions could well be "no," but again, the fact that we're asking the questions means there's a lot for the Rams to figure out after their Super Bowl title defense season fell apart in historic fashion. The reason they claimed Mayfield (other than pure desperation to have a quarterback who could play Thursday, apparently) was to get a look at him in case he's an option for them for next year, either as a backup or a starter. No harm done, and in fact the move already paid dividends in the form of a shocking win. But it's way too early to be making any predictions about what the Rams will be doing at QB next year, let alone whether Mayfield will play well enough the rest of the way to be in their 2023 plans or anybody else's.
The Carolina Panthers have a real shot to win the NFC South
OK, so what happened in Sunday's late afternoon window? Well, the Panthers beat the Seahawks and the 49ers beat the Bucs, and all of a sudden Tampa's lead in the division is down to one game over the Panthers and the Falcons. Carolina has won two in a row, three of its last four and has a head-to-head victory over the Bucs in its pocket from earlier this season. Sam Darnold seems to be playing well at quarterback, and the defense is capable of making game-winning plays. No one in the division is even .500, but the rules state the division must have a champion.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Brady and the Bucs were non-competitive in San Francisco; there's no other way to put it. They get the red-hot Bengals at home next week, they go to Arizona in Week 16 and then finish with head-to-head division matchups against Carolina and Atlanta. The Panthers, meanwhile, get the Steelers and Lions at home the next two weeks before finishing with division road games in Tampa and New Orleans. I don't like any of these teams, but interim Carolina head coach Steve Wilks is trying to convince his bosses to keep him in the job, and the team is playing hard for him. There are worse reasons to pick a team to win a division that nobody wants to win.