Thirteen weeks into the NFL season, we're well accustomed to the new universe of good Geno Smith, explosive Justin Fields and hapless Russell Wilson. Those are the breakout and declining performances that make headlines, but there are plenty more to uncover in the vast NFL universe.
Let's talk about the somewhat-under-the-radar breakouts and slumps, using some advanced metrics -- often with data from NFL Next Gen Stats -- as our guide. By their very nature, the breakouts will be relatively lower-profile names and the decliners will be higher profile. Let's take a look with five who have struggled:
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Breakouts
Players who have declined
Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
On the surface, Cook's numbers look fine -- 927 rushing yards, another 157 receiving and eight combined touchdowns. His 4.7 yards per carry is the same as a year ago. But there are sneaky signs of a decline here for the 27-year-old.
Over the past three seasons, Cook's rush yards over expectation -- a Next Gen Stats metric that estimates the mean rush yards a runner should average based on the location and speed of every player at the time of handoff -- have dropped from plus-250 in 2020 to plus-81 in 2021 to minus-5 this year. Cook has rushed for less than what was expected of him.
That's not the only area of alarm. His Receiver Tracking Metrics -- our player-tracking based stats that quantify a player's ability to get open, make the catch and generate yards after catch relative to expectations -- have been steadily falling, too. In 2019 his Overall Score was 72, well above average and one of the highest in the league among qualifying running backs. That number fell to 56 in 2020, 34 in 2021 and ... 18 in 2022 -- the worst score among all qualifying backs.
Cook's fantasy managers are surely happy with his production. But in real life, the player-tracking numbers suggest his skills are fading.
Quenton Nelson, G, Indianapolis Colts
In 2020, Nelson's third NFL season, he reached the peak, ranking third in pass block win rate and first in run block win rate among all guards. The only comparable player to him at the position was the Dallas Cowboys' Zack Martin, a future Hall of Famer.
It wasn't a new development. Nelson had been a top-11 PBWR and RBWR player in 2019 and a top-5 RBWR player as a rookie.
In 2021, Nelson dealt with various injuries, and his performance dropped off a little. He was 12th and 13th in PBWR and RBWR, respectively -- still impressive considering his injury issue.
This year has been a step back, though. Nelson has dropped to 36th and 17th in pass block and run block win rate, respectively. In other words, he has been an average pass blocker.
In watching his plays, Nelson did get tagged with a few cheap losses that brought his numbers down a bit, but he hasn't been playing at his normal standard.
Cameron Jordan, DE, New Orleans Saints
I believe the Saints' stunt-heavy defense depresses players' pass rush win rates because the pass rushes are slow developing. That explains why the 33-year-old Jordan has never had a particularly high win rate despite being a very productive pass-rusher in terms of sacks.
Even this season, his 5.5-sack total -- while below his 12.1 sacks per year pace from 2017-21 -- is not awful. His win rate is, though. Even though he has never been great in the metric, Jordan always had a pass rush win rate at edge at least in the double-digits ... until this season. His current 5.5% PRWR is second-worst among edge qualifiers, only ahead of the Atlanta Falcons' Lorenzo Carter.
Even his sacks are evidence of his play tailing off. Most of them have come on plays where Jordan takes a pass-rush loss but sticks with the play before eventually getting the sack. His average time to sack is a whopping 5.79 seconds.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans
Cooks' decline has been apparent in his production numbers. He dropped from 2.3 and 2.4 yards per route run in 2020 and 2021, respectively, to 1.8 this year. His fantasy managers are likely aware of the lack of production.
Could this just be the Davis Mills/Kyle Allen effect? The Receiver Tracking Metrics -- which attempt to isolate receiver performance from the quarterback -- suggest, no. There is more to it than deficient quarterback play.
Over the past three years, Cooks' Overall Score has dropped from 67 in 2020 to 60 in 2021 to 37 in 2022. The drop-off has been across the board: Cooks' Open Score/Catch Score/YAC Score triple-slash currently sits at 52/38/31, the lowest scores in his three seasons in Houston.
While Mills surely has had a negative impact on Cooks' traditional box score statistics, Cooks also played with him for much of last season. Cooks has long been a steady and underrated performer but might be starting to slow down at age 29.
Donovan Smith, OT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Smith has never been a top performer when it comes to blocking win rates. But his numbers this season are simply remarkable -- and not in a good way. The Bucs' left tackle ranks 63rd out of 67 qualifiers in pass block win rate and is last among qualifying tackles in run block win rate.
To make matters worse, Smith is tied for the league lead in holding penalties (five) and has cost the Bucs 75 yards via penalties this season -- worst among all offensive linemen.
There are many reasons for the Bucs' struggles this season, and Smith is certainly one of them.
Players who have broken out
Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants
There may not be a receiver with a more stunning 2022 when compared to his performance the year before than Slayton. Last season, Slayton's Receiver Tracking Metrics were some of the worst in the league. On a scale of 0-99, Slayton's Overall Score was 16, second-worst among all wide receivers and tight ends.
This year? Slayton has recorded a 74, good for 12th-best. Even more shocking? The largest improvement has come in his Open Score, which is typically the most stable of the metrics year-to-year.
Though Slayton has speed, openness doesn't always come on deep routes. Check out this whip route he runs against the Lions in Week 11. Slayton makes a nice move to get wide open with room to run and then beats YAC expectations, too.
Slayton's route profile has changed some this year in Brian Daboll's offense. He's running fewer comebacks, deep outs, short fades and in routes, replacing those with more crossers, seams and digs. Route type is controlled for in the RTMs, but perhaps the new profile better suits his game.
No matter how it's happening, though, it's clear Slayton is playing much, much better. It's showing up in the production, too -- his yards per route run have made a massive jump from 1.1 a year ago to 2.3 this season.
Tyson Campbell, CB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Campbell was the No. 33 overall selection in the 2021 NFL draft, and the second-year corner is posting nearest defender numbers that put him alongside the top players at outside corner. At 0.8 yards per coverage snap allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats, Campbell ranks sixth among all outside corners with at least 250 coverage snaps, behind top performers such as the Philadelphia Eagles' James Bradberry, Carolina Panthers' Jaycee Horn and New York Jets' D.J. Reed. Campbell is being targeted at a below-average rate (14.5% compared to 17.5% on average for the position) while allowing completions at an expected rate given those targets.
Campbell's two interceptions contribute to his minus-10 EPA allowed this season, which is fourth-best in the NFL.
Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears
Prior to suffering a hip injury in Week 10, Herbert was in the midst of a wildly efficient campaign, accruing 6.0 yards per carry. When we add the context of rush yards over expectation, it gets even more impressive. Herbert racked up 204 rushing yards over expectation, fourth-most among running backs this season, despite only having 108 carries. His 1.9 rush yards over expectation is best among all backs with at least 50 carries.
This isn't a Bears thing, either. David Montgomery has minus-13 rush yards over expectation this season. Herbert stands in stark contrast.
This play against the Commanders in Week 6 is a fun example of Herbert gaining a ton of extra yardage. He has the potential to be brought down for no gain by Jamin Davis (No. 52) but breaks the tackle and makes a cut to an open running lane. Then he makes another move to avoid Benjamin St-Juste (No. 25) to get to the open field. Expected rush yards on the play? Six. Actual rush yards? 63.
Robert Hunt, G, Miami Dolphins
One of the remarkable things about Miami's offensive explosion this season is that it has done it with sub-par pass protection, as the team ranks 25th in pass block win rate. That said, it's actually a decent step up from where the Dolphins were a year ago -- dead last.
Part of that improvement? Hunt. The third-year guard's PBWR of 94% ranks 14th out of 63 qualifiers. He takes part in a higher-than-average rate of double teams for a guard, which helps. But his PBWR is still strong and a badly needed development for the Dolphins' offensive line.
David Long Jr., LB, Tennessee Titans
Linebackers are tricky to quantify because they're evaluated against the run, in coverage and rushing the passer. And we're also dealing with small samples for the latter two. But Long is above average across the board, which makes for quite an impressive resume for the fourth-year player.
The highlight is a 46% run stop win rate, which ranks second only behind the Los Angeles Rams' Ernest Jones among all linebackers. It's not a huge departure from what he's been in the past, as Long has scored well in the metric for years.
Pass-rushing snaps for off-ball linebackers are limited, but he has made the most of his chances. His 28% pass rush win rate when rushing from an off-ball linebacker position is fifth-best among players with at least 20 wins or losses (Jaguars rookie Devin Lloyd tops the list).
Long's coverage numbers are good, too. His 0.9 yards per coverage snap allowed is slightly better than average for linebackers, and he boasts minus-7 EPA (thanks in part to two interceptions).