Predicting NFL Week 14 upsets, plus weekly buzz, notes

If you're a believer in the adage conveyed by Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells that says "you are what your record says you are," perhaps you can stop reading right here. The Philadelphia Eagles continue to hold the NFL's best record at 11-1 as Week 14 of the 2022 season begins, with the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings and 9-3 Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs next in line for the literal designation as the league's best team.

If, on the other hand, you believe nuance is necessary in any analysis of the top teams, we have a debate that might be up your alley. Given that it's not the Eagles but their current NFC East subordinates the Cowboys that lead ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), the question of "best" seems like a pertinent and fluid one. NFL Insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler have made their feelings on the subject known, also weighing in on the sub-.500 teams that could make a serious run to the wild card as the NFL playoff machine cranks up, discussing which of the league's whopping seven intradivision games this week has the most import, offering their rookie of the year picks and providing the usual spate of upset selections and fantasy advice.

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NFL's best team? | Wild-card sleepers
Division showdowns | Rookies of the Year
Upsets | Fantasy start/sit | Weekly buzz

Records aside, who's the best team in the NFL right now?

Graziano: I thought it was the Bills before the season started, and I still think so. And with them back in position for the 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, they're positioned to get the conference's only bye and make everyone else have to go to Buffalo in January which, I can assure you, is a significant challenge from a comfort standpoint. I am a little bit concerned about the impact of the Micah Hyde injury and, if he's out a while, the Von Miller injury as well. But this is a loaded, deep roster with a great quarterback and excellent skill position players around him. The Bills are battle tested, having been on deep playoff runs the past couple of years and come up just short against the Chiefs twice. I think it's their year. What say you, Jeremy?

Fowler: Bills, Bills, Bills. Can you pay my Bills? Can you beat the Buffalo Bills? My Destiny's Child flow says it's their year. They've been battle tested and now have come to the realization that they are really good and wholly capable of knocking off just about anyone. Josh Allen is out of the haze of shaky play due to his elbow injury, healthy and fully loaded for the rest of the season. Von Miller will return. And I trust Buffalo's defense a little more than Kansas City's or Cincinnati's. If the Bills square up in a conference championship game with either, I expect them to rise to the moment.

Graziano: I will say this: I've had the Bengals' games the past couple of weeks, and it's hard not to feel like there's something really good going on with that team. We know they'll have no fear if they go up against the Chiefs in the playoffs. We don't know how they'd match up with Buffalo in a big game, but we'll get to see them play each other on "Monday Night Football" in Week 17. Last year, the Bengals beat the Chiefs in Week 17 and then knocked them off again in the AFC Championship Game. Could history repeat?

And what about the NFC teams? Do you see Philly or Dallas having what it takes to come out on top against whoever the AFC champ is?

Fowler: Dan, I'm trying to stick with my preseason pick of San Francisco coming out of the NFC, but that was two quarterbacks ago. Still, the 49ers have the makeup and talent for a deep playoff run, and Kyle Shanahan's QB-friendly system can help Brock Purdy finish. So, I'm riding with the Bay until further notice. The Eagles are loaded and have given little evidence to suggest a January stumble. But the playoffs have a way of stopping a run-pass-option-heavy offense and forcing quarterbacks to win from the pocket. Can Jalen Hurts do it if rushing lanes are clogged? I think so, but I need to see it. I would give Dallas a slight edge over Philly.

Which team currently sporting a losing record would you be least surprised to see in the playoffs as a wild card?

Fowler: Let's go with a true wild card -- the 5-7 Lions, whose only loss over the past five weeks came in a heartbreaker against a Buffalo team they clearly could have beaten. The Lions can score on anybody, posting at least 30 points in six games. A much-improved Jared Goff has several top-shelf playmakers and a stout offensive line protecting him. And the defense has shown signs of life after a rocky two months.

Graziano: That's a good one, especially if the defense can get/keep it together here over the final month. I figured it would have to be an NFC team, but the more I looked at it ... I'm taking the Las Vegas Raiders. They're 3-0 since that shocking loss to the Colts in Jeff Saturday's first game as Indianapolis coach. The Raiders' pass rush finally seems to be revving up after what has been a very disappointing year so far. They could theoretically get Darren Waller and/or Hunter Renfrow back healthy at some point. Their next three games are against the offensively challenged Rams, Patriots and Steelers, which means they could be 8-7 going into a tough final two games against the 49ers and the Chiefs. Also, they did the same thing a year ago, with a lot of the same guys, so they know the feeling. The Raiders are only two games back of the Jets, who currently hold the final AFC playoff spot. Don't rule it out.

There are seven intradivisional matchups in Week 14. Whose win in one of those games would have the most meaning?

Graziano: If the Jets could beat the Bills again, that would throw the entire AFC playoff race into complete chaos. It's hard to imagine a more consequential result from any of these games. Baltimore could really use a win over the Steelers to hold off the surging Bengals. Those Bengals could really use a win over the Browns because they just don't tend to get those. But think about what happens if the Jets beat the Bills. You'd have at least seven teams within two games of the AFC's top seed with four games to go. You'd have the Bills having to work uphill just to win their own division. Chaos!

Fowler: The Giants over the Eagles. New York's schedule over the next month is brutal, with Eagles matchups this week and in Week 18, plus a Week 16 matchup with the currently 10-2 Vikings and the Commanders in Week 17 (plus a home meeting with the Colts). Brian Daboll is a Coach of the Year candidate for the way he has led the overachieving Giants. But for the franchise to earn its first winning season since 2016 -- also the last time it made the playoffs -- getting the Eagles now would go a long way.

Who would be your offensive and defensive rookies of the year if you had to vote today? Who else are you considering?

Fowler: OROY: Garrett Wilson. He has at least 90 yards in four of his past five games. He's surging at the right time, has chemistry with Mike White and should top 1,000 yards. DPOY: Tariq Woolen. Sauce Gardner has been brilliant, but Woolen's knack for the ball (six interceptions, 12 pass deflections) is hard to ignore. The Seahawks put him in man-to-man situations, and he has delivered with physical ability and instincts.

Graziano: Offensive Rookie of the Year is between Wilson and the Saints' Chris Olave, who are both among the league leaders in receiving categories as rookies. I might lean Olave because he has been a consistently productive part of the Saints' offense all year, while Wilson has been in and out (mainly due to quarterback play, but still). Wilson is surging, though, and can make it academic if he keeps this up. I agree about Woolen's interceptions, and he's a great candidate, but everybody I talk to who evaluates this stuff tells me Sauce Gardner is just covering on a different level. I would lean Gardner in a close race.

What's your top upset pick for Week 14?

Graziano: Buccaneers (+3.5) over 49ers. I almost went with the Vikings, who are underdogs against the Lions, but that seemed a little like cheating. And it was tempting to take Cleveland over Cincinnati because of the recent history there. But I just have a feeling about the Bucs maybe winning a really close, low-scoring game against the Brock Purdy 49ers and taking control of the NFC South. They're traveling cross-country on a short week, and regardless of how Monday night ended, I don't think they're very good. But ... Brady in San Francisco, Niners down to a third-string QB ... I don't know. Took a shot.

Fowler: Browns (+6) over Bengals. The Browns have the same grip on the Bengals matchup that the Bengals have on the Chiefs. Cleveland has won five straight over Cincinnati. This is one of those mysterious matchup problems for Cincinnati until the Bengals change that. And the Browns' defense has settled down of late, giving Deshaun Watson time to find his footing.

What's your fantasy football call of the week?

Fowler: Tony Jones Jr. as a sleeper play. Seattle's top two backs, Kenneth Walker III and DeeJay Dallas, could miss this week because of injury. Jones got his first extended action Sunday vs. the Rams, and though he didn't produce (14 yards on seven carries), the Seahawks are committed to the run (24.3 carries per game), and I believe the system will help the lead back flourish.

Graziano: Give Rams RB Kyren Williams another shot this week if bye weeks have you desperate. I know, I know, he was a major flop last week in what looked like a potential breakout spot. Cam Akers got the carries. Williams was an afterthought. But this is a short-week Thursday game, and I wouldn't put it past the Rams to lean on a different back than they did four days earlier. They want to get a look at their younger players before the end of this year, and this is a player for whom I know they have had high hopes. The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league at stopping fantasy running back production. This is a hunch, but a high-upside one in a week with six teams on a bye.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano

• The Washington Commanders expected to have defensive end Chase Young back by now from last year's season-ending knee injury. And their hope is that he returns after the bye for their Week 15 game against the Giants. But it's a situation to watch, as I'm told Young and the Commanders continue to have ongoing discussions about the right plan for Young's return to play. Both sides agree it's best to wait until he's completely 100%, and to this point they have not felt comfortable putting him back into a game. Will that change in a week and a half? Maybe. But don't be surprised if there's another twist or two in this road before Young is back on the field for Washington.

• Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has been brought up to me by more than one person lately as a name to watch for the Indianapolis Colts' head-coaching position once the season is over. Frazier has an ally in Tony Dungy, whose word carries some weight in Indy. Frazier is a former head coach who has administered one of the league's best defenses for several years now and likely deserves another chance. The questions in Indy would be who's going to play quarterback and who's going to run the offense. But Frazier certainly has a plan in place for the latter, and it's the organization's job to figure out the former.

• We should have at least some clarity on the Odell Beckham Jr. situation at some point this week or next. But based on what I've been told, I still wouldn't be shocked if no team signed Beckham and his free agency became a 2023 offseason thing. There are still concerns about the health of his knee and how much it will or won't allow him to be a helper to a contending team this year. Some of the teams he's talking to have significant enough 2023 salary-cap concerns that they might not be in position to give him a deal that goes beyond this year. If the knee isn't right and the deal isn't right, a Beckham signing is no sure thing. Jerry Jones, who has been saying for more than a month now that he wants him and will do what it takes, was even hedging on his radio show Tuesday. Beckham sounds like a great idea, and if he's healthy and can play the way he did for the Rams last year, he could be a huge help to someone. But those are still ifs, and the teams that have seen him up close will make the decisions on whether he plays this year.

Fowler

• A few quarterback notes: Don't be surprised if Sam Darnold gets an extended run at quarterback this month. The Panthers want to see what they have with Darnold behind an improved offensive line from last year. He's still a possible option as a bridge quarterback to a draft pick in 2023. ... Quarterback changes could be on the horizon in multiple NFL cities, most notably Atlanta and Indianapolis. In the NFC and AFC South, Falcons coach Arthur Smith and Colts coach Jeff Saturday both left the door open slightly for changes at the position as they enter the bye week, saying they will evaluate their options. Usually, when head coaches open the door slightly, they eventually kick it open. It would be at least a mild surprise if the Falcons don't turn to Desmond Ridder for the final four games. The move wouldn't be until closer to Week 15. Starter Marcus Mariota has posted a respectable 55.5 QBR rating, 14th in the NFL, but the Falcons have failed to surpass 17 points in four of their past five games. For the Colts, no easy solution awaits. Indy hasn't turned to Nick Foles yet. ... Lamar Jackson isn't the only Ravens QB dealing with an ailment. Backup Tyler Huntley, who is slated to start Sunday vs. Pittsburgh, is battling an illness that affected him Sunday vs. Denver. He's taking it easy early in the week with hopes of practicing Wednesday. So, the Ravens' quarterback room is a bit of a mess. ... Speaking of the Panthers, Carolina believes Baker Mayfield showed great maturity as a teammate while with the team, which bodes well for his new spot with the Rams. The perception of Mayfield as a difficult teammate was not the case there, I'm told. While his on-field performance can be questioned, he accepted his role as a backup in Carolina and didn't make any waves. ... This quote Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson gave me Sunday about Mike White really stood out: "I wish we could have won it -- for him." It's quite clear White, in two starts, has galvanized the offense. The team is rooting for him.

• After a 2-7 start, the Raiders find themselves in a similar spot to last year -- approaching a 6-7 record for the stretch run. A win Thursday over the Rams will officially push Las Vegas into the playoff conversation. Many assumed Josh McDaniels wouldn't learn from his Denver tenure, but people in Vegas said he's better adjusted as a head coach, and he never lost the locker room this year. And now, reinforcements await -- Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow are both eligible to come off injured reserve and start practicing. That might not happen this week, because of a quick-turnaround game, but that 10-day window between games leading into the Patriots showdown in Week 15 will be big for both players.