Predicting NFL Week 13 upsets, plus weekly buzz, notes

Graziano: 1. Mahomes, 2. Hurts, 3. Tua, 4. Allen, 5. Justin Jefferson. Why not? No wide receiver has ever won the award, but how can you watch Minnesota and not think he's the team's most valuable player? Burrow is probably a win Sunday against the Chiefs from pushing his way onto this list, and not just into fifth place, either. Mahomes for me is the easy call here, as great as Hurts has been. Mahomes' value to the Chiefs has never been clearer than in the year after they traded Tyreek Hill and replaced him with the guys they replaced him with. He started winning this award in the offseason, when he accepted the mantle of fresh responsibility and elevated his game and leadership to even greater heights.

How would continued strong play from Sam Darnold impact the Panthers' future at QB? What might it mean for Darnold's career?

Graziano: I don't think it will impact the Panthers' future at QB even a little. They've seen this movie before. Clean slate coming in Carolina, from quarterback to coaching staff, and I think the Panthers bid Darnold farewell. I think the best he can do individually is catch on as a high-end backup somewhere and serve in the role he's serving in now. My guess is he starts a few more games in his career, and maybe -- maybe -- even carves out a Geno Smith-style second act. But I doubt a handful of good starts at the end of his fifth season are going to convince anyone to overlook the first four seasons.

Fowler: The latter question seems more pertinent, because the chances of Carolina reinvesting in Darnold this offseason are slim, no matter what he does. Darnold has every right to want a fresh start elsewhere, after Carolina replaced him with Baker Mayfield and made no secrets it wasn't thrilled about paying his $18.8 million option. But Darnold showed glimpses of why teams have remained hopeful about him all of these years. His tools were apparent in the Denver game. Can he put together a string of good games to earn a starting job somewhere in 2023? Eh. He hasn't done it consistently, but if he keeps this up, he could have five more to make his case. Starting opportunities in free agency hinge on whether Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones and Geno Smith end up resigning with their teams. Darnold will be far down the pecking order. But teams have talked themselves into worse.

A two-game losing streak has raised some worries about the early-season darling Seattle Seahawks. What's your prognosis for the Seahawks, and how are they set up for 2023 and beyond?

Fowler: Their run defense is concerning, giving up 283 yards to the Raiders two weeks after the Bucs closed out the Germany game with the run. That must be fixed for the Seahawks to make a playoff push. But Seattle still has a formula for winning: A tough running game of its own, two elite playmakers on the outside, Geno Smith making good decisions and the defense creating turnovers (the Seahawks' 19 forced turnovers rank fourth in the NFL). Seattle's rookie class is strong and will only improve. Most of the starters are young or still in their primes. Two first-round picks next year (thanks to the Russell Wilson deal) position Seattle well for 2023. Plus, the Seahawks have a manageable schedule with the Rams and Panthers on deck. They might not be a top NFC seed but still have a decent chance to win the division.

Graziano: There was a point this year when it looked as if the Seahawks' defense was turning the corner, but Sunday it looked as lousy as it did in September. To me, that's where all of this gets determined. I think their offense is functioning well and will continue to do so. I don't see Geno Smith as a flash in the pan. I think he's a vastly improved player who used his time as a backup to his benefit. I think they'll continue to score points. But they're going to have to find ways to consistently stop people if they want to stay in this playoff mix.

What's your top upset pick for Week 13?

Graziano: Titans (+5.5) over Eagles. Tennessee lost a tough one Sunday, and if the Eagles can score in the 20s that might be enough. But I like Mike Vrabel's tough squad to be able to ugly this game up enough to steal one, and I have a hard time seeing them losing two games in a row.

Fowler: Bengals (+2.5) over Chiefs. Perhaps the Bengals are in the mood to remind last year's playoff run was no fluke. They are coming off a win at Tennessee, the site of their divisional-round playoff win. Now they head to Kansas City, site of an AFC title game that tilted the trajectory of the franchise. The Bengals' offense has stayed prolific without Ja'Marr Chase, and now Chase is set to return, along with Joe Mixon, who missed a week because of the concussion protocol. The defense has shown second-half resolve most weeks. Time to nudge supremacy in Arrowhead.

What's your fantasy football call of the week?

Fowler: Consider Los Angeles Rams RB Kyren Williams as a Flex or RB2. L.A. has seen a revolving door at tailback, but Williams is coming off 14 touches for 60 yards in Kansas City. With Matthew Stafford possibly missing more time, young quarterbacks Bryce Perkins and John Wolford will lean heavily into Williams' versatility.

Graziano: I think I'd try to sit Alvin Kamara if I could. Things just aren't working right now for the Saints' offense, especially the run game. Kamara has a fumble problem. He's a little banged up coming out of Sunday, and the Saints have a bye in Week 14. If you're playoff bound and you have Kamara on your roster, you have some sweet matchups to look forward to starting in Week 15. But if you have another option this week (maybe Kyren Williams, Jeremy?), you might want to give it some thought.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano

• I believe the Bengals are likely to get wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase back from his hip injury for Sunday's game against the Chiefs. Chase was pretty close to being ready to play last week, but the Bengals decided late in the week to just hold him out for one more game to be safe. It worked out for them, as Tee Higgins' big day helped them beat the Titans in Nashville without him. The Bengals have won five of their past six games and seven of their past nine and are only getting healthier and more confident as they wade into the toughest stretch of their schedule. Running back Joe Mixon could return as well this week, depending on how he continues his progress through the league's concussion protocol.

• Higgins, by the way, is 10th in the NFL in receiving yards and, along with quarterback Joe Burrow, eligible for a contract extension next offseason for the first time. With Chase eligible for an extension following the 2023 season, and with 2022 franchise player safety Jessie Bates III still not signed, the Bengals face some complex and potentially difficult decisions about which of their stars they want to pay and keep long term. The Bengals' front office has consistently said these are good problems to have, that they'd love to keep everyone and that they'll make the decisions at the appropriate time. But the time is fast approaching when we'll find out whom they view as pieces of their long-term core and whom they don't.

• The Green Bay Packers have been encouraged by the progress they've seen Jordan Love make as Aaron Rodgers' backup this year, and especially encouraged by Love's attitude about the situation. Love looked ready to step in Sunday when he had to relieve an injured Rodgers, and the Packers believe he could start and help them win Sunday if need be. There's also the issue of whether the Packers need to take a look at Love for a stretch of this season in case Rodgers decides he doesn't want to come back in 2022. Currently, the plan is to start Rodgers if he's healthy enough to play -- at least until such time as the Packers are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. Rodgers said after Sunday's game that he'd be open to having "those kinds of discussions" if and when that mathematical elimination happens, meaning presumably that he'd be willing to discuss his future and the pros and cons of sitting down in favor of Love for the rest of the year. Stay tuned.

Fowler

• After asking around on the Jets' QB situation, here's what's crystallized: Robert Saleh truly plans to take the process week to week as of now, but with a tough two-game stretch coming up -- at Minnesota and at home vs. Buffalo -- most I've talked to expect White to start both games for continuity's sake. White has been one of the offense's most consistent performers behind the scenes for months, and the Jets are particularly happy with how fast White got the ball out of his hands against Chicago. New York wants a quick decision-maker, believing its skill players, defense and special teams will do the rest. People around the league are skeptical that Zach Wilson will get another chance this year, noting how the team responded to White on the field Sunday. Now, a few bad games could change the equation. But that's where it stands right now.

• Panthers interim coach Steve Wilks has at least given the Panthers something to think about for the full-time job. Players have responded to Wilks, whose 3-4 record is impressive considering the questions that surrounded the team, particularly at quarterback. People around the league believe he's a long shot for the long-term job, to be sure, stressing that Carolina owner David Tepper could target an offensive coach. But I've also been told by multiple people in the building that Carolina has held off on the hiring process because it wants to give Wilks a fair run. ... Speaking of Carolina, running back D'Onta Foreman is one of the great success stories from this season. Teams around the league have noticed how hard he's running, which bodes well for his free agency. Dating back to last year with Tennessee (replacing an injured Derrick Henry), Foreman has a 100-yard game in seven of his past 13 games. During that span, he's averaging 112.7 yards in the six games when given at least 20 carries. Once approaching journeyman status, Foreman is a staple in Carolina, which could look to re-sign him this offseason. He's currently on a value contract at one year, $2 million.

• Cowboys LT Tyron Smith is approaching a return for Dallas. I'm told the Cowboys had planned to open his 21-day practice window next week, after the Colts game. They could always move that up, but that was the initial thought. For all the talk about Odell Beckham Jr. joining Dallas -- and many people around the league expect him to end up there - Smith's addition can't be understated as a premier tackle joining a quality offensive line. ... In other offensive tackle news, the worst-case scenario for Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs (ankle) is he misses 5-6 weeks, but everyone is hopeful for more like 3-4 weeks. His high ankle sprain includes some ligament damage that should heal with rest, not surgery. But it's significant enough that he will miss a good chunk of time. Wirfs was relieved he had no knee damage. There was concern about that.

• With Von Miller saying on his Bleacher Report podcast that he's hoping to return to play through his lateral meniscus injury, here are a few factors that led him to that place, from what I was told: Surgery would likely end his season (too quick a turnaround), and Miller is comfortable playing in a knee brace. In fact, he recorded 14 sacks in 2014 while wearing a brace. So, that provides a little more optimism that he can play through it. Miller said on the podcast he's eyeing a potential return Dec. 11 vs. the Jets. A source stressed that no firm decisions have been made, because the knee swelling must subside first.