Predicting NFL Week 11 upsets, plus weekly buzz, notes

The New York Giants and running back Saquon Barkley tabled talks over a contract extension last week, inviting the possibility the potential 2022 NFL rushing champion might play for a new team in 2023. Barkley leads the NFL with 931 rushing yards as Week 11 begins, a resurgent campaign from a 25-year-old rusher who is attempting to play his first full and injury-free season since 2018, when he was a rookie.

If Barkley indeed hits the market, what type of deal might he command, and who would be the best fit for his skills? ESPN NFL Insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler considered that question, also weighing in on the surprising debut of Jeff Saturday as coach in Indianapolis, the declining fortunes of Josh McDaniels with the Raiders, the battle between Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson for top 2022 receiver honors, and their weekly complement of upset picks and fantasy advice.

Jump to:
Saquon deal | Saturday | McDaniels
Tyreek vs. Jefferson | Key injuries
Upsets | Fantasy start/sit | Weekly buzz

The NFL's leading rusher Saquon Barkley appears headed for free agency. What do you expect the market for Barkley to be, and which team would you consider his most ideal fit?

Graziano: The franchise tag for running backs next year likely comes in around $12.5 million to $13 million, so if I'm Barkley and I hit the market, that's the floor I'm setting. And he probably can't go too far beyond that, because teams haven't shown much willingness to blow out the top of the RB market. He looks like a guy who will have some appeal to a team with a lot of cap space (maybe with a starting QB on a rookie contract?) and is one explosive offensive player away from being a true contender.

Depending on how well they address the offensive line, he'd be a lot of fun lining up in the backfield with Justin Fields in Chicago, wouldn't he? Or as the final piece for the Bills' offense if they fall short of the Super Bowl again? Kansas City? There are lots of places where Saquon would make a big impact if he can stay healthy.

Fowler: Dan, the modern running back market has proven that only premium backs get paid, and even players who fit that category -- Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb -- were not able to reset the market with recent deals. That's why I don't expect a team to shell out Christian McCaffrey money ($16 million per year). That deal has become a true outlier. But it's important to remember that, two years ago, many around the league considered Barkley the league's top tailback talent. After 857 carries in five seasons and multiple injuries, durability will be a concern. Chubb's contract -- three years, $36.6 million with $20 million guaranteed -- might be a nice comp for Barkley.

Former ESPN colleague Jeff Saturday got his coaching career off to a flying start with Sunday's win at the Raiders. If his success continues, what are the implications for Saturday? For the Colts? For the league?

Graziano: We're getting ahead of ourselves on this. It was great and fun to see Jeff win his first game, but the issues this team had before he took over didn't all just disappear in a week. I don't think the hypothetical scenario at the heart of this question is going to be a problem, because I don't think the Colts are going to keep winning games. And even if they do, Irsay can't just hand the job to Jeff without interviewing others and following the Rooney Rule.

The Saturday hire is an example of the NFL hiring process being a situation in which "the owners are going to hire who they want to hire," which is kind of at the heart of the coaching diversity problem in the first place. Irsay went with Saturday as a guy who can get the car parked safely in the garage, and he could make big, sweeping changes once the season is over and that the process will look a lot more normal. To that point, though ... I was left to wonder, in the wake of Sunday's result, why everybody who was so upset about the Saturday hire being a "disgrace to coaching" is OK with teams continuing to hire Josh McDaniels.

Fowler: I'm with ya, Dan, but the implications for Saturday also seem pretty clear: He might just have a chance to earn the job full-time if he can string together enough wins. Irsay seems pretty convinced Saturday can do the job, and he probably doesn't make a move this bold without considering that long-term possibility. For the Colts, the front-office structure would come into focus. GM Chris Ballard is a well-respected evaluator, and he does have a preexisting relationship with Saturday. What would a Ballard-Saturday marriage look like? The next eight weeks will help answer that.

I don't sense a major leaguewide shift toward hiring former players with zero experience -- though, to your line about owners hiring whom they want, Dan, a Saturday success story could embolden a few to follow the formula. Not to undersell other sports, but the complexities of NFL head-coaching jobs make this hurdle difficult. Consider that recent NFL GMs hired despite no experience -- San Francisco's John Lynch and Las Vegas' Mike Mayock (fired after last season) -- were hand-picked by head coaches who had heavy personnel say and/or final authority. Experience is still paramount, especially within a league that still has trouble figuring out its minority hiring practices.

What has been the biggest culprit in the Raiders' struggles, and how fair is it to lay the problems all at the feet of coach Josh McDaniels?

Fowler: His sneakers are getting heavier underneath problems building like an avalanche. If winning close games is a sign of good coaching, then the opposite might be true with the Raiders, who have blown three 17-point leads and have lost six games by an average margin of 4.33 points (extracting the curious 24-0 loss to New Orleans). Several decisions have backfired, including the decision to go for two late in the Kansas City game and attempting a deep ball in Stephon Gilmore's direction on fourth-and-6 Sunday vs. the Colts.

This is a bad defense. The Raiders rank 26th or worse in scoring defense, total defense and pass defense. Now, McDaniels also has a few valid excuses -- attrition is a major problem, with three top linebackers out and two top pass-catchers out last week. The battery of McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler is essentially trying to win while purging the roster (including the release of multiple former first-round picks), and that's hard to do. That process has worked for the New York Giants but backfired in Vegas. And most people I've talked to in Vegas say McDaniels hasn't lost the locker room, though a few whispers are brewing that the old Patriots Way of grinding guys down with long hours has seeped into the locker room.

Graziano: I'm not there every day, so it's hard for me to speak to the fairness of blaming or not blaming McDaniels. Like you, Jeremy, I haven't heard a ton about locker room problems with the coaching staff. But the only thing that matters is whether the team owner will blame McDaniels, and I'm inclined to think he won't -- at least not to an extent that costs McDaniels the job. Remember, the Raiders were coming off a feel-good playoff run last offseason when Mark Davis decided to let go of the popular Rich Bisaccia and bring in the former New England combo of McDaniels and Ziegler at coach and GM. Davis is invested in those two and likely sticks with them for that reason.

What's really interesting is the likelihood that quarterback Derek Carr, not McDaniels, takes the fall for this. Remember the "contract extension" Carr signed last offseason? Yeah, well, it really wasn't. Carr has no guaranteed money left on his deal after this season, and because the Raiders don't like to put signing bonuses in their deals, Carr got a comparatively small signing bonus of $7.5 million. That means the Raiders could cut Carr after the season and carry a dead money charge of only $5.625 million next year. As of now, the Raiders would have the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, which means McDaniels might have a chance to pick one of the top quarterbacks in next year's draft class and build a team around him. Or they could sign Tom Brady, whom he knows well. Or both! Either way, we will know soon. The Raiders' deadline for deciding on Carr for 2023 and beyond is three days after the Super Bowl. If he's still on the roster after that day, the Raiders will owe him a guaranteed $32.9 million for 2023 and a guaranteed $7.5 million (out of $41 million) for 2024. Follow the money, and it looks like Carr is more likely to not be there next year than McDaniels is, whether that makes Raiders fans happy or not.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors have been won by a wide receiver in two of the past three seasons. With that in mind, where would you rank Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson on your ballot, if you had to cast it today?

Fowler: Hill has outdistanced his peers in his typical speedy fashion. He's my No. 1 by the way he has catalyzed the Dolphins' new offensive outlook. What Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa are doing together is impressive, but the plan doesn't work without Hill beating corners by 10 yards downfield. He's putting together a season for the ages by making splash plays look routine. Twenty of his 81 catches have gone for at least 20 yards on his way to 1,148 yards on the year. The chase for Calvin Johnson's single-season record of 1,964 yards is on.

Jefferson is either two or three for me. I would probably give the second-place nod to Barkley because he's pacing for 1,700 rushing yards for a team with minimal help around him. He's carrying New York to the playoffs, which is rare for a running back in this era. Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb are putting together monster seasons, too. So, Jefferson is close, and I love his relentless spirit on the way to 1,060 yards on 69 catches.

Graziano: I would say Hill, Jefferson, Barkley at this point, with Derrick Henry lurking as always. And it's worth mentioning that the "offensive player of the year" is probably Patrick Mahomes so far, but because he's also probably the leading candidate for MVP, and these two awards don't tend to go to the same guy, we'll keep it to the receivers and running backs. Jefferson showed Sunday he's capable of being the best player in the league on a given week, and it shapes up as a great race between him and Hill if they're both challenging Calvin Johnson's record.

Which single injury will have the biggest impact on a team's second half?

Graziano: Man, the Dallas Goedert injury we're just finding out about on Tuesday afternoon as we write this has a chance to be the answer here. He has been a huge part of what the Eagles have been able to do, and the manner in which they replace him could have a lot to say about how they finish.

Before that, I was going to say the Bengals' chances of getting back to the playoffs might depend on how soon Ja'Marr Chase can get back. And I am very concerned about the loss of Emmanuel Ogbah on a Dolphins defense that was already looking like its weak link.

Fowler: How Keenan Allen's hamstring injury heals is crucial for the Chargers' second half. The issue appeared manageable at first but now has cost him seven games. Good for 100-plus catches in four of the past five seasons, Allen is sitting on six catches for 77 yards over a two-game sample. Justin Herbert needs his most reliable target in the worst way -- that was obvious in the second half of Sunday's loss to the 49ers, who forced Herbert into too many checkdowns. Mike Williams should be back soon, but Allen remains the wild card. The Chargers are firmly in the playoff hunt at 5-4.

What's your top upset pick for Week 11?

Fowler: Lions (+3) over Giants. Detroit's Week 10 win over Chicago -- its first on the road since 2020 -- should lift weight off the shoulders of Dan Campbell, whose offense ranks top 10 in the NFL in points (24.3) and yards (371.2) per game. The Giants' 7-2 start is impressive, but they aren't built to win a shootout.

Graziano: Bears (+3) over Falcons. I also like the Lions this week! And it's not just because of my old rule of never picking the Giants. I've picked the Giants several times this year, and it has worked out well. But because you took the Lions, give me the Fightin' Fieldses over a Falcons team that I don't think is going to be able to stop the Bears' ground game.

What's your fantasy football call of the week?

Graziano: Two Ravens rush for 100-plus yards against the Panthers. The problem is, I don't know which two. Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson? Kenyan Drake and Jackson? Edwards and Drake? Carolina has been soft against the run, and the Ravens are coming off their bye healthy and want to run it. I think they'll have success.

Fowler: Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams WR. He's still getting his footing after a knee injury cost him nearly two months, but his three-catch, one-touchdown performance Sunday vs. the Cardinals should be encouraging. And the loss of Cooper Kupp to injury heightens Jefferson's profile. If healthy, there's little reason why Jefferson can't tap into his 800-yard, six-touchdown pedigree from a year ago.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano

• If the season ended today, there would be four teams with top-10 picks in the NFL draft that belong to someone else. The Eagles have the Saints' first-round pick, which right now would be No. 4. The Seahawks have the Broncos' pick (7), the Lions have the Rams' pick (8), and the Texans have the Browns' pick (9). If that holds up, it could set off a scramble of teams with extra first-round picks trying to trade up to the top of the draft for a quarterback. Seattle, Houston and Detroit all could be candidates for taking a quarterback in this next draft. Of course, Houston also has the top pick at the moment, so it wouldn't need to trade up. And neither, by the way, would the Eagles, who appear to have their man in Jalen Hurts and could use this theoretical top-10 pick in a number of ways -- either by drafting the best non-QB to help build around Hurts or by trading down to pick up even more assets. The best thing to be is a team with a high pick that doesn't need a quarterback, and Philly's recent draft-pick dealing has put it in a strong position.

• Don't assume the big game from Packers rookie Christian Watson was a fluke. Obviously, he's not going to catch three touchdowns every game, but I expect they will continue to make him a major part of the game plan going forward. He was the 34th overall pick in the draft, a player for whom the Packers traded up because they thought he could help them fill the void created by Davante Adams' departure. The very first play of the season was a deep shot to him that he somewhat famously dropped. He has always been someone for whom the Packers' coaches had high immediate hopes, but injuries and inconsistency have kept him from being a major part of the plan until now. If he can stay healthy and if he can cut out the drops, the eight targets he got Sunday should be a sign of things to come. Packers coaches are saying they're looking for different ways to attack defenses, and Watson's speed offers them one they didn't have in the first half of the season. They believe if defenses have to start respecting his speed, that will open things up underneath for Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and the running backs. Don't be shocked at all if they take some deep shots to Watson on Thursday night against the Titans.

• Speaking of the Titans and rookie wide receivers, Treylon Burks was quiet in his return from injury Sunday, but the Titans definitely have a role planned for him and believe he offers more explosive potential than the team's other receivers. Teams have been playing man coverage against Tennessee, which limits Robert Woods' effectiveness, but if offensive coordinator Todd Downing can diversify his attack with the help of Burks, that could open up opportunities for Woods. Of course, Tennessee's identity on offense is always going to revolve around Derrick Henry and the run game. But the Titans realize they have to be able to score at a level they haven't so far if they want to keep up with the AFC's top teams. Downing has done the best he could with what little he has had so far this year, but the hope is the first-round rookie can help expand the playbook on offense a bit.

• Remember Wristband Gate from last week, when Seahawks coach Pete Carroll took a subtle shot at former Seahawks (now Broncos) QB Russell Wilson for "resisting" wearing a wristband with the plays on it while he was in Seattle? Well, it turns out that Wilson had worn a wristband for the Broncos' Week 8 game against the Jaguars in London and wore it again Sunday in Tennessee. The performance of the Broncos' offense in Tennessee certainly didn't provide any points in the favor of Wilson or the wristband, but losing receiver Jerry Jeudy early in the game had an impact, and there's some sense around the team that Wilson might still be fighting through that lat muscle injury he suffered in late September or early October. Denver's schedule softens up in the final couple of months, but Wilson and the offense are going to have to show a lot more than they've shown so far, or first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett's seat is going to be blazing hot by the time the season ends. I do not expect the Broncos to make a coaching change during the season. I do expect the new owners to evaluate everything once the season is over, and I don't think you can rule out a change at that point -- depending of course on how things go the rest of the way.

Fowler

• Washington has a decision to make at quarterback with Carson Wentz returning to health, and though no firm decision has been made, it could be an easy one. Many around the league expect the Commanders to stick with Taylor Heinicke, at least for the short term. Hard to ignore the Commanders' performance with him under center: He's 8-4 in his past 12 starts, including a 3-1 clip this year. As one source told me, young players gravitate toward Heinicke because of his fiery personality and his no-fear attitude, and Ron Rivera knows about the locker-room support for sticking with Heinicke. At the same time, the Commanders value Wentz's skill and toughness, and he is also well liked there. Wentz is healing as scheduled and could be ready as soon as Sunday vs. the Texans.

• In other QB news, the Saints are considering moving to Jameis Winston after back-to-back rough outings by the offense under Andy Dalton. But that's not a slam dunk at this point. One thing to consider: New Orleans sits at 3-7 while facing major injury concerns on offense, with up to three starting offensive linemen out along with receiver issues throughout the season. Turning to Winston now could be an odd move. ... While Baker Mayfield starts for the Panthers this week, some with the team would like to see Sam Darnold at some point, too. Darnold hasn't shown what he can do in Ben McAdoo's offense yet. ... With Kyler Murray favoring that hamstring last week, the team could give him another week or so to heal. The Cardinals will see how he feels midweek. But Kliff Kingsbury is 3-1 with Colt McCoy as a starter. Arizona believes it can win with him.

• The Bengals are hopeful Ja'Marr Chase, who has been recovering from a hip injury, can return for Week 12 against the Tennessee Titans. Chase continues to rehab, so there's no definitive plan there yet, but the people I've talked to have circled that game as a potential relaunch for Chase. The Bengals' offense is feeling pretty good after posting 42 points and 464 yards on Carolina two weeks ago, and fresh off the bye, the Bengals are hoping for similar production vs. Pittsburgh this week. In other receiver news, the Broncos believe they dodged major injury with Jerry Jeudy (ankle), who is considered day-to-day and should have a chance to play this week.

• Much has been made about Josh Allen's struggles with turnovers -- and those 25 interceptions in his past 26 games are concerning -- but the team believes he and the coaching staff will fix it, to a point. The team also doesn't want to suppress his fearlessness, which helps him make clutch plays, so there's a balance to be found. What can help Allen, particularly late in games, is the rushing attack, which sits at a respectable 10th in the NFL with 129.9 yards per game. But other teams are watching closely to see whether Buffalo leans into the running game and/or can close out games with it. It's important to note (A) the Bills haven't had a 900-yard rusher since LeSean McCoy in 2017; and (B) they looked at tailback options at the trade deadline before settling on Nyheim Hines, who is more of a pass-catcher. Devin Singletary is considered a good all-around back but not elite. I've talked to multiple scouts who said Cleveland's Kareem Hunt was an ideal fit for Buffalo as a three-down player. He was available for a fourth-round pick. And free agent David Johnson is still out there. Part of the reason he's not signed is because teams, in most cases, offer minimum deals this time of year. Johnson has made nearly $40 million in his career, so there might be little incentive to play for a half-million after taxes. Either way, Buffalo's tailback spot is one to watch over the final two months.