We're officially into the second half of the 2022 NFL season, as every team seven to nine games remaining. There's a lot of football still to be played, but I wanted to highlight some of the top player-on-player matchups over the rest of the season.
These are the one-on-one showdowns that put elite playmakers up against each other, including high-end receivers against ball-hawking defensive backs, powerful edge rushers against reliable offensive linemen, and more.
I dug into the numbers for six matchups to watch in the second half, starting with Minnesota's Justin Jefferson against Dallas' Trevon Diggs in Week 11. Why will each of these six matchups be critical in their teams' pushes toward the playoffs, and which of the game-breakers has the edge in their premier head-to-head?
Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings vs. Trevon Diggs, CB, Cowboys
When: Week 11 (Nov. 20)
Why the matchup stands out: The Cowboys have played Cover 1 on 49.3% of their opponent dropbacks this season, tops in the NFL. That means we should see plenty of true one-on-one matchups with Diggs lining up over Jefferson.
While Diggs has only logged three interceptions this season, after racking up an NFL-best 11 in 2021, his 12 passes defended ranks second behind the Jets' Sauce Gardner (13). Per NFL Next Gen Stats, he has made a play on the ball on 28.6% of targets where he's the nearest defender -- No. 1 in the NFL among cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps. And with Diggs traveling in coverage, he will have to account for Jefferson's savvy route-running skills.
The Vikings' top wide receiver has already caught 59 passes this season, with an average of 14.7 yards per reception. He's a high-volume target in Kevin O'Connell's offensive system and can work all three levels of the field. He also produces roughly 40% of his yardage after the catch thanks to solid catch-and-run ability.
Who has the edge: Give me Jefferson's detailed route tree and O'Connell's ability to use formations and motion to scheme free releases against man coverage. And with Diggs' ultra-competitive and sometimes over-aggressive play style, we could see some double-moves from Jefferson isolated as a boundary target.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs vs. Derwin James Jr., S, Chargers
When: Week 11 (Nov. 20)
Why the matchup stands out: In their first meeting of the season (Week 2), James was all over the tape. Urgent and active, the Chargers' safety popped at all three levels of the field, logging nine total tackles. We'll see James blitz, run the alley, match in man and patrol the middle of the field, and he could even be utilized as a "spy" to track Mahomes, given the Chiefs quarterback's high-level scrambling ability.
Mahomes is playing at an MVP level yet again, leading the NFL with 21 touchdown passes and registering a Total QBR of 75.4, which ranks second behind Miami's Tua Tagovailoa (80.2). He's making the staple throws in Andy Reid's playbook and going off-schedule when necessary to break down defensive coverage looks.
Who has the edge: It's Mahomes based on what I anticipate from the Los Angeles defensive game plan -- a mix of man-free and two-deep zone. Reid will have offensive answers to stretch James and this Chargers defense horizontally. Plus, the emergence of receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (22 receptions in his past three games) gives Mahomes a target to work with in the dirty areas of the field against James, who will be lurking inside the numbers.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers vs. Demario Davis, ILB, Saints
When: Week 12 (Nov. 27)
Why the matchup stands out: McCaffrey's deployment as a dual-threat player, plus the heavily schemed run-game system under Kyle Shanahan, is key here. In his two games with the 49ers, McCaffrey has averaged 5.1 yards per carry, but we are also seeing the pass game usage, with the running back logging 10 receptions on 11 targets for 79 yards.
I love this matchup against Davis, given the Saints linebacker's off-the-charts defensive awareness, downhill juice and physical play at the point of attack. He reads it fast against the run and will match to backfield releases based on the defensive call under coach Dennis Allen.
Before getting dealt before the trade deadline, McCaffrey matched up against the Saints while a member of the Panthers. He rushed 25 times for 108 yards, though he found more success on runs to the outside; he averaged just 2.9 yards per carry up the middle. CMC was held to two catches and 7 yards as a receiver.
Who has the edge: We have to focus on Davis when the Saints match to the 49ers' 21 (2RB, 1TE, 2WR) or 12 (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) personnel here. That's where I see the veteran linebacker playing more of a matchup role versus McCaffrey.
And I like McCaffrey here, thanks to the tactical advantages Shanahan can create with blocking angles and leverage in the run game. Look for San Francisco to scheme up open space to exploit when McCaffrey is targeted as a receiver, too.
Nick Chubb, RB, Browns vs. Roquan Smith, ILB, Ravens
When: Week 15 (Dec. 20)
Why the matchup stands out: The Ravens traded for Smith to boost their defensive run-game profile, and we saw his impact in his first game with Baltimore. Smith logged five tackles against the Saints in Week 9, showing up early for two key run stops, as the Ravens held New Orleans to 48 yards rushing. Smith's 37.6% run stop win rate is in the top 15 among linebackers this season, and he leads the NFL in tackles against designed runs (61).
Smith will be in the middle of that Baltimore defense when the Ravens travel to Cleveland in late December to face Chubb, who is averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season and ranks second behind Derrick Henry in total rushing at 841 yards. Chubb also has a league-best 13 explosive play rushes (run of 15 or more yards).
Who has the edge: We know what to look for in Kevin Stefanski's run game. Multiple tight ends. Zone and gap schemes. Old school football. But I'm still going with Smith here. The impact linebacker's ability to run clean lines to the ball or use his pursuit speed to close the door on the perimeter elevates this entire Baltimore front.
Lane Johnson, OT, Eagles vs. Micah Parsons, OLB, Cowboys
When: Week 16 (Dec. 24)
Why the matchup stands out: Parsons has the traits of a premier edge rusher and has logged eight sacks this season, while leading the NFL with 36 pressures and a pass rush win rate of 31.5%. He will be deployed on the edge in dropback situations against Johnson, who ranks third overall at the tackle position in pass block win rate (94.3%). The veteran tackle has shown the ability to redirect and recover in space, with the anchor to hold up against power moves.
Who has the edge: I'm actually going with Johnson because of his blocking skill set and the anticipated schematic tendencies we see from the Eagles' offense.
In these two teams' first matchup of the season, back in Week 6, Parsons registered just one pressure, despite a 40% pass rush win rate. Philadelphia used both run-pass options and boot concepts to limit his ability to get to the quarterback.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks vs. Sauce Gardner, CB, Jets
When: Week 17 (Jan. 1)
Why the matchup stands out: The Jets are very defined from a coverage perspective, playing zone on 65.6% of opponent dropbacks this season, the fourth-most in the league. But Gardner can match in both Cover 3 or Quarters against vertical releases, and he will get his isolation reps when Metcalf is aligned as the single receiver to the boundary.
The rookie corner leads the NFL with 13 passes defended this season, and he has added two interceptions. Gardner plays with confidence in coverage.
I'm curious how many true one-on-one matchups we will see of the rook against the high-end physical traits of Metcalf, who has hauled in 42 receptions for 510 yards this season. Three of the 6-foot-4 receiver's four touchdowns have come on red zone throws, where he can use his strength to come down with the ball. And per NFL Next Gen Stats, Metcalf has caught 5.6% more passes than expected this season.
Who has the edge: The Jets could choose to play more two-deep zone in this one, with Gardner rolled up to jam and disrupt Metcalf and a safety waiting over the top in the deep half. But when we do see the one-on-ones, Gardner should pop. He has the length, transition speed and competitive juice to finish on the ball against Metcalf.