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          What's wrong with Russell Wilson, Broncos? Five concerning things

          • Matt BowenOct 29, 2022, 06:55 AM ET
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              Matt Bowen is a fantasy football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent multiple years on "NFL Matchup." After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo over seven seasons.
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          The Denver Broncos will face the Jacksonville Jaguars in London on Sunday (9:30 a.m. ET on ESPN+) in quarterback Russell Wilson's seventh start since joining the team in a massive offseason trade. The early results? Not great.

          Wilson has just five touchdown passes and a 35.2 Total QBR, which ranks 29th of 32 qualified passers. He is completing 58.6% of his throws, much lower than the rate in any of his previous 10 seasons, and he already has taken 20 sacks and thrown three interceptions. By just about any measure, Wilson isn't playing up to his normal standard.

          His slow start is even more worrisome when you consider that Denver traded five draft picks (including two first-rounders and two second-rounders) to the Seattle Seahawks to land him and then signed him to five-year, $245 million extension before the season that includes $165 million in guaranteed money.

          What is actually going wrong for Wilson with the Broncos? Let's take a deeper look at his play this season -- using the tape and the numbers -- and address five major concerns that have crept into his game. Can the 33-year-old signal-caller turn it around as he returns under center after missing Week 7 with a hamstring injury?

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          1. Stuck on his primary read

          Wilson is an instinctual thrower, and he excelled playing off-script for the Seahawks, but he is struggling to fit into Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett's timing-and-rhythm-based pass game. His average time to throw is 2.86 seconds, eighth-highest in the league. So what are we seeing here?

          There is a strong tendency for Wilson to lock onto his primary target and stay there, which impacts the timing of the route concept and limits his ability to work to his second or third options. It creates disruption in the route structure, with Wilson keying on one read and leaving opportunities out on the field.

          Is it just part of the transition to a new system? That's fair to say. But we are also talking about a veteran thrower who simply must see it faster and play with greater urgency within Denver's offensive structure.

          2. Poor field vision from the pocket

          Let's focus on Wilson inside the pocket this season. His QBR on such plays is 41.4 (26th in the NFL), and he has been sacked 15 times. Pressure, in this instance, falls on multiple parties. We've seen plenty of protection breakdowns, and there are many situations in which Wilson has to account for an extra rusher.

          Here's an example from Denver's Week 6 loss to the Chargers. With the Broncos sliding the protection to prep for the Chargers' pre-snap front -- and Wilson's left tackle occupied by the edge rusher -- safety Derwin James Jr. is left unblocked on the blitz. He simply must be accounted for by the quarterback. Wilson fails to identify the rusher, which results in a sack.

          We've also seen poor eye level from Wilson. In other words, he is reading the pass rush rather than maintaining his vision down the field. It makes his ability to scan for open targets even more inconsistent.

          The issue is elevated when the Broncos move the ball inside the red zone. On 22 red zone attempts from inside the pocket this season, Wilson has a 3.5 QBR -- 31st in the league out of 32 qualifiers -- and just one touchdown throw. We all remember the final play in the Thursday night loss to the Colts, where Wilson locked onto receiver Courtland Sutton and forced a throw into traffic, despite there being a schemed man-beater that left KJ Hamler wide open for a would-be game-winner.

          But there are plenty more situations on the tape in which Wilson isn't seeing it cleanly from the pocket. It has severely impacted the red zone efficiency of the Broncos' passing offense. Denver ranks last in the NFL there, scoring a TD on just 23.5% of its drives that get inside the opponent's 20-yard line.

          A quick offensive fix here? Wilson has attempted 167 throws from the pocket this season but only 37 off play-action. The Broncos need to increase their play-action reps to generate more defined throws, which would allow him to hit the back foot and deliver the ball to schemed windows at both the second and third levels of the field.

          3. Inconsistent ball placement

          We often focus on accuracy at the quarterback position, which is simply the ability to complete a pass. Ball placement, however, is the trait that separates the top signal-callers at this level. It weaves in touch, trajectory and how the passer locates the ball in the strike zone for the receiver. And Wilson's tape shows up and down location this season.

          Now, Wilson's supporting cast in Denver has to be brought into this discussion, which includes his top two targets in Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. He's no longer throwing to DK Metcalf, who has rare physical tools, excellent contested catch ability and the straight line speed to get on top of defenders. Nor is Wilson working with the savvy route running and vertical speed of Tyler Lockett.

          Let's take a closer look with ESPN's new Receiver Tracking Metrics, which use player-tracking data to quantify a receiver's ability to get open, make the catch and generate yards after the catch. Catch Score is part of that and evaluates a receiver's ability to make a catch based on route, depth, timing, coverage, quarterback and the accuracy of the pass. The Seahawks' receivers -- whom Wilson played with before this season -- rank first overall in Catch Score, but the Broncos are tied for 31st. And Jeudy's Catch Score sits at 25, the lowest among all qualifying wide receivers and tight ends. That's not good enough.

          The lack of consistent ball placement from Wilson is a part of this discussion, but we also have to acknowledge that part of this transition to Denver includes the loss of two high-level receivers in Metcalf and Lockett.

          4. Missing routine throws

          For any offense to really work, the quarterback has to make the routine throws. Hit the unders. Deliver the in-breakers on time. Find and expose the open windows. Those are the routes that move the chains or at least create more manageable down-and-distance situations.

          This season, Wilson has a completion percentage above expectation (CPOE) of minus-5.9%, per NFL Next Gen Stats tracking. That's 32nd in the league and better than only Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson. And here's something even more concerning: Wilson's CPOE falls to minus-7.5% on passes thrown within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

          It meshes with the tape, and points to a crack in the pass-game foundation of the Denver offense. When it comes to taking the throws that are available, he has struggled to consistently connect and move the ball down the field with Hackett's playbook. This creates negative game situations, leaving the Broncos in three-and-out situations on 27.2% of their drives (30th).

          There are still timing issues on quick-game or underneath throws with Wilson and his Denver receivers, leaving some missed opportunities. Wilson can work to shorten his stride length on the release, which will help to correct ball placement when targeting crossers, speed outs and quick in-cuts.

          5. Unwillingness to leave the pocket

          During his time in Seattle, I saw Wilson as one of the top quarterbacks at using his ability to escape outside of the pocket and extend the play. That ability created high-level second-reaction plays as both a runner and thrower. Wilson could attack vertically in the pass game outside of structure, scramble to pick up the sticks or use his fantastic movement ability to create consistent conflict for defenses late in the down.

          In Denver? We aren't seeing it. Wilson has attempted just 30 passes from outside of the pocket this season, completing 11 of those throws. And he has logged only 12 scramble attempts for 86 yards, with three converted for first downs. Toss in limited usage on designed rushes (only nine total carries), and Wilson isn't threatening defenses the same way he did with the Seahawks.

          This has created advantages for opposing defenses when scheming for Wilson and this Broncos offense. I'd like to see Wilson use his legs a bit more and keep defenses honest.