Sunday's game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs might not have been the sort of classic shootout many fans expected. What we saw instead, though, was a closely fought battle between two excellent teams. I'm comfortable saying the Bills are the best team in the AFC (if not the league as a whole), but the Chiefs aren't far behind. Along with the Philadelphia Eagles, they seem like a clear top tier at the top of the NFL.
I don't think many people would argue with that assessment after six weeks. When it comes to the AFC, though, who's next? If the Bills and Chiefs are the conference's two best teams, who's No. 3? I spent a couple of minutes thinking about an answer and realized I probably needed to write out an entire column to figure things out.
Let's run through the various candidates for No. 3 in the AFC, and I'll make my choice. I can see six plausible candidates with three more teams that would be on the fringes of the discussion, so settle in. None of these teams are perfect, but one of them has to be third:
Jump to a candidate:
Bengals | Chargers | Colts
Dolphins | Jaguars | Jets
Patriots | Ravens | Titans
Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
On a play-by-play basis, the Ravens likely have the best quantitative case for being the AFC's No. 3. In fact, DVOA has the Ravens as the third-best team in the entire NFL -- behind the Bills and Eagles but ahead of the Chiefs, who rank seventh. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) ranks Baltimore as the conference's fourth-best team, trailing the big two and the Bengals, who moved ahead of them only this week.
I'll put it this way: Through the first three quarters of games this season, the Ravens have generated 1.77 win probability added (WPA) on offense, defense and special teams. If the games ended after the third quarter, they would be the second-best team, trailing only the Eagles. In other words, John Harbaugh's team has done more to clinch its games over the first 45 minutes than either the Bills or Chiefs.
Of course, football games are four quarters long, and you know what has happened to the Ravens in the final frame this season. They have cost themselves 1.77 WPA in that fourth quarter, the worst mark of any team. The same Ravens who have outscored their opponents 136-77 in the first three quarters of the game have been outscored 64-22 in the final stanza. As a result, a team that could very well be 6-0 right now is 3-3 instead.
In trying to understand what has gone wrong for the Ravens in the fourth quarter, it might be easier to point to what doesn't decline: Kicker Justin Tucker is still great late in the game. But everything else goes south. Pick a stat, concept or Baltimore player, and what you see in the first three quarters isn't happening in the fourth:
Lamar Jackson has posted a 72.6 QBR in the first three quarters, the third-best mark in the league. In the fourth, he's down to 28.4.
The league's fifth-best pass defense by QBR before the final 15 minutes is suddenly dead last in QBR in the fourth quarter.
The Ravens have a plus-six turnover differential in quarters 1-3 but a minus-two differential in the fourth.
There have been different problems each week, too. In the comeback loss to the Dolphins, a secondary racked with injuries melted down, with rookie first-rounder Kyle Hamilton perhaps most at blame. It was notable that Hamilton didn't move into the starting lineup last week once Marcus Williams went on injured reserve, with the Ravens instead preferring special-teamer Geno Stone. The offense, usually so good in short-yardage situations, failed on a goal-to-go situation against the Bills. Then sloppy play from Jackson and the offensive line led to two giveaways on the final two drives of the Giants game.
Obviously, this needs to change. The Ravens can't compete at the highest level if they are melting down in the fourth quarter twice a month. To figure out whether they can be the third-best team in the conference moving forward, I need to answer two questions. First, have the Ravens struggled closing out games in the past? And second, does history say they'll struggle to close out games in the future?
The answer to the first question is no. If anything, they were better than just about everyone else when it came to sealing things up in the fourth quarter. From the moment Jackson took over as their starting quarterback in 2018 right through to the end of the 2021 season, Baltimore held a lead of 10 or more points in the second half 33 times. It went 31-2 in those games. We can take issue with some small-sample playcalling decisions, but I don't believe the Ravens are approaching those situations appreciably different or have a much less talented team now than the ones they rolled out over the prior three seasons.
The answer to the second question is also no. I went back through 2007 and found the teams with the largest gap between their WPA over the first three quarters and their WPA over the final quarter across the first six weeks of the season. Unsurprisingly, the Ravens ranked low on this list; they had the fourth-largest gap of any team over that stretch, with No. 1 being the 2021 Bills. Buffalo was better than Baltimore over the first three quarters, but it also blew two fourth-quarter leads against the Steelers and Titans over that stretch, too.
If you take the 30 teams over that 15-year span that fell off by the most in terms of WPA in the fourth quarter as opposed to the first three -- and then see what they did after Week 6 -- the effect disappeared. The average gap between their WPA before the fourth quarter and afterward fell from minus-2.6 WPA from Weeks 1-6 to 0.1 WPA after Week 6. In other words, their ability to win games in the fourth quarter played out identically to how they performed over the first three quarters of the game.
Now, there were exceptions in that group. The most notable is the 2011 Eagles, who you might remember more famously as the "Dream Team." Vince Young, Nnamdi Asomugha and the rest of that Philadelphia roster blew games in bizarre fashion over the first six weeks and continued to do so over the remainder of the season. Typically, though, if a team is good in the first three quarters of the game, its fourth-quarter performance will eventually fall in line.
WPA isn't a perfect metric for what we're trying to understand here, but it's a reasonable reflection of what's going wrong in Baltimore. History tells us that the odds, generally, are in favor of the Ravens figuring things out and locking up games in the fourth quarter moving forward. I also would have said that before the Giants game last week, though, and you saw what happened there.
New York Jets (4-2)
Right now, depending on how you slice it, the Jets have a credible case as the AFC's third-best team. They're tied for the second-best record in the conference behind the Bills. The Chiefs are with them at 4-2. And in comparison with the Chargers -- the other 4-2 team -- the Jets have a better point differential (plus-15 vs. minus-11). They also just pulled off one of the largest upsets of the season by blowing out the Packers 27-10 in Green Bay.
I'll admit I wasn't taking the Jets seriously before last week. It's true they were 3-2, but their three wins had come over teams fielding backup quarterbacks. Jacoby Brissett played the entire game for the Browns, while the Steelers swapped out Mitch Trubisky for Kenny Pickett at halftime of their loss to New York. The Dolphins, already starting backup Teddy Bridgewater, were forced to turn to third-stringer Skylar Thompson after Bridgewater was injured in the first quarter. Getting the opposing team to play second- and third-string quarterbacks is a great way to win games, but it's probably not sustainable.
Well, Aaron Rodgers is the reigning MVP, and the Jets just held him (and a garbage-time series from Jordan Love) to 10 points on 13 drives. The Packers had previous struggles on offense, but that's the sort of defensive performance you can't write off as an aberration or a product of overmatched competition. The Jets deserve a closer look.
In looking through their defensive performance, there's a clear philosophy. General manager Joe Douglas comes from Philadelphia, where the Eagles built deep defensive lines in hopes of getting pressure with their front four. Coach Robert Saleh's most significant role before joining the Jets was in San Francisco, where the 49ers built a deep defensive line in hopes of getting pressure with their front four. There's a throughline here.
Sure enough, the Jets have invested heavily in their defensive line, and we're seeing Saleh trust that line to get home. They are blitzing on just 13.5% of opposing dropbacks this season, the league's lowest mark. When they have blitzed, the results generally have been disastrous, as they've failed to rack up a single sack and are allowing the league's second-highest QBR.
When the Jets rush four or fewer and drop their defenders into coverage, they've been great. They have the league's eighth-highest sack rate, 13th-highest pressure rate and eighth-best opponent QBR. Defensive end Carl Lawson, returning from a torn Achilles, ranks 16th in the league in pass rush win rate in what's becoming a larger role in the defense.
The surprise star, at least in terms of pass-rush production, has been Quinnen Williams and his five sacks. He has been wrecking shop at nose tackle, creating pressures off twists and by overpowering interior offensive linemen. Williams has even been used as an old-school tilted nose tackle to create quicker paths to the quarterback.
We've also seen the Jets look much better running the ball, in part because of their new back. Breece Hall has generated big plays as a runner and receiver throughout his rookie campaign. He is averaging nearly a full yard more per play than the NFL Next Gen Stats model would project an average back to pick up with the same blocking and defensive placement. Michael Carter, meanwhile, is minus-0.4 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per attempt. Last season, New York's various backs combined to average minus-0.1 RYOE per attempt. And while Hall's 38.2% run success rate is just below league average, he is making up for it with splash plays.
The glaring concern remains at quarterback. The Jets are 3-0 with second-year passer Zach Wilson, but it's difficult to argue he has contributed much to those victories. He has completed just 56% of his passes, and while he's averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, much of that came on a 79-yard completion to Hall off a totally blown Dolphins coverage. Those yards count, of course, but he can't count on an easy 79-yard gain once a month.
To be fair, Wilson has also been let down by drops, as his 5.3% drop rate is above the league average. This was also a problem when Joe Flacco was in the lineup; his drop rate was even higher at 5.8%. The Jets have an exciting group of young receivers, so there might be even more meat on the bone with this offense if they're more consistent.
Wilson did lead the Jets on a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown drives to come back to beat the Steelers, so we have seen him throw in situations in which they needed to score. His 47.7 QBR is only middle of the pack, but it's also well ahead of the 33.4 mark he posted as a rookie. Crucially, he has gone from being the league's worst play-action quarterback in 2021 to a league-average play-action passer, a step he needed to make to be viable in this offense.
That's the sort of improvement I'm willing to believe in for these Jets. After being one of the worst teams in 2020 and 2021, they look to be about league average right now. That's an enormous step forward. FPI gives them a 52.2% shot of making it to the postseason, which would be their first berth since 2010. I'm just not sure I believe enough in Wilson to peg them as the third-best team in the conference.
Miami Dolphins (3-3)
The case is simple for the Dolphins. They started the season with Tua Tagovailoa as their quarterback, and in the games he finished, they are 3-0. With Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson forced to finish games because of injuries to each of Miami's three passers, they are 0-3. Tagovailoa is set to return against the Steelers on Sunday, so they should re-ascend toward the top of the AFC. Easy enough.
If you look at who the Dolphins have beat, the case might be even stronger. Mike McDaniel's team is the only one to beat the Bills this season, holding Josh Allen under 6.4 yards per pass attempt in a 21-19 victory. The Dolphins also beat the Patriots and Ravens, both of whom would be candidates for the third spot. They lost to the Bengals and Jets, who are also in the mix, but that was with one combined half of Tagovailoa.
Even without Tagovailoa, the offense hasn't been the problem. The Dolphins rank sixth in DVOA on that side of the ball. Wideout Tyreek Hill, who should be the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year right now, has continued to produce regardless of who's throwing him the ball. He is averaging 3.7 yards per route run, which is particularly incredible when you consider there's only one other qualifying wide receiver (Stefon Diggs) who has topped 3 yards per route run this season.
The other elements of the roster have been disappointing. The defense, which struggled badly in the first half of last season before improving after Halloween, ranks 25th in DVOA. We've seen moments in which edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and safety Jevon Holland have looked like superstars, but they haven't been consistent. Last week was a great example, with the Dolphins generating 11 three-and-outs. On their other four meaningful drives, though, the Vikings scored three touchdowns and a field goal.
The pass rush just hasn't been a reliable source of pressure. The Dolphins are blitzing at the league's fourth-highest rate, but they rank 23rd in sack rate and a woeful 29th in pressure rate. Given how infrequently the rush gets home, they aren't a good pass defense when they do send those blitzes; only the Saints and Seahawks allow more yards per dropback when they blitz. It has been particularly notable inside the 5-yard line, where seven Miami blitzes have yielded one sack and five touchdown passes.
This team has the pieces to improve here. Phillips has shown promise; he has 10 sacks over 23 career games. Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah had nine sacks in each of the past two seasons. Edge rusher Melvin Ingram III looked to have plenty left in the tank for the Chiefs a year ago and had a strip-sack in the opener. Safety Brandon Jones might be one of the most unique players in the league around the line of scrimmage as a blitzer. No, the Dolphins don't have that single dominant pass-rusher other teams have, but they have too much talent overall to not figure this out.
The bigger concern might be whether the secondary can stay healthy long enough for the pass rush to resolve its issues. The Dolphins still haven't seen cornerback Byron Jones, who underwent ankle surgery in August and isn't ready to return. Kader Kohou, who had stepped into the starting lineup as an undrafted rookie and looked impressive, missed the Vikings game because of an oblique injury. Slot corner Nik Needham tore his Achilles last week and will miss the rest of the season, while Keion Crossen also left the Vikings game because of a knee injury. Mackensie Alexander and Trill Williams were lost for the season in August.
Miami still has Xavien Howard, and it can call upon former first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene, though he hadn't played a 2022 defensive snap before Week 5. Things will get better when Jones and Kohou return, but the Dolphins are in a vulnerable position with the Steelers and Lions coming up over the next two weeks. Both teams have deep receiving corps.
Any defense featuring Howard is going to thrive on takeaways, and regardless of what has been happening for the Dolphins at quarterback, it's tough to see them winning many games without generating turnovers. They had a turnover margin of plus-two during their 3-0 start to the season, but since then, they've posted a minus-seven. The Steelers have won both of their games in which they protected the football and lost all four games when they turned the ball over at least once. That's a good place to start for Miami if it wants to get back on a winning track.
The Dolphins also have been dismal on special teams, where they rank dead last by DVOA and 28th by FPI. Veteran kicker Jason Sanders has missed an extra point and all three of his tries from 50-plus yards, while they allowed Devin Duvernay to take a kickoff 103 yards to the house in Week 2. Miami's return game ranks last in yards per punt return (2.3) and 29th in yards per kickoff return (18.6). Special teams alone wouldn't be enough to drag down the Dolphins if their defense was playing better, but Sanders & Co. haven't been helping at the margins.
Tagovailoa's return should give the team an emotional boost and improve its quarterback play. He posted an 80.0 QBR before suffering a concussion in Week 4, which still ranks No. 1 in the league. Even if the Dolphins can't count on him to be an MVP candidate for the entire campaign, it's clear he is going to be better with the added help he has around him on offense.
Can these guys stay on the field, though? Offensive tackle Terron Armstead, the team's marquee free-agent signing this offseason, left the Vikings game because of a toe injury and might not play this week. Star wideout Jaylen Waddle has been limited by a shoulder injury. Hill isn't 100%, though he's still playing at a superstar level. Tagovailoa was dealing with a back issue before suffering a concussion.
Miami has the talent to beat anybody, but with four games to go before a much-needed bye, can it get back to its winning ways with a depleted roster?
Tennessee Titans (3-2)
Titans fans might argue their team should inherit this position by default, given that they finished the 2021 regular season ahead of both the Bills and Chiefs. Tennessee got off to an 0-2 start and looked to be in serious trouble after getting blown out by the Bills, but in typical Titans fashion, they've gotten back on track by winning three straight close games. They could easily be 4-1 or 1-4.
The bright spot has been better performances from star running back Derrick Henry. After Henry failed to record a target in either of his first two games, offensive coordinator Todd Downing clearly prioritized getting him involved in the passing game. Henry has 10 catches for 121 yards and four first downs. He has dropped his three incomplete targets, which isn't ideal, but the receiving work has given him a chance to be explosive in open space and create easy checkdowns for quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
As a runner, Henry has improved, albeit not to the levels we saw during his 2019-20 peak. He averaged 3.1 yards per carry and minus-1.4 RYOE per attempt over the first two weeks of the season, which was one of the league's worst efforts. Over the past three weeks, Henry's 70 carries have produced 301 yards (4.3 yards per carry) and 0.1 RYOE per rush.
This is basically the 2021 version of Henry, who was gobbling up record levels of volume with average efficiency. The best version is the one we saw over the two prior seasons, who received slightly less volume while remaining incredibly efficient and averaging north of 5.0 yards per carry, but the Titans will be happy to see even league-average work from him as a runner.
The one thing missing from Henry's game has been big-play explosiveness. Between 2018 and 2020, his acceleration and ability to shrug off tackles in the secondary made him devastating in the open field. We haven't really seen those runs pop up yet in 2022. If we use his rate of picking up 10, 20, 30, and 50-yard gains from those peak seasons, we would have expected the 28-year-old to have more chunk gains this season than he actually does at every level:
Instead of three gains of 20-plus yards, two 30-plus yarders and one 50-plus dash, Henry has one gain of more than 20 yards, a 24-yard carry against the Raiders in Week 3. He did have a 22-yard touchdown called back against the Colts for a holding penalty downfield, but you get the idea: When he starts running through secondaries for huge gains, we'll know peak Henry is back.
Henry's impact in short-yardage situations and the threat of Tannehill have helped the Titans thrive in the red zone. From 2018 to '21, even with Henry missing half of last season because of his foot injury, the Titans still led the league comfortably in red zone conversion rate. They scored touchdowns on 67.3% of their trips inside the 20, well ahead of the league average of 58.9%.
This season, though, the Titans have been on another level altogether. Despite making the league's second-fewest trips inside the 20, they have made those opportunities count. They are 12-for-13 (92.3%) in red zone touchdown conversion rate. That's the second-best red zone conversion rate any team has had since 2007 over the first six weeks of the season, just behind the 2021 Saints, who went 13-for-14 inside the 20.
Those same Saints converted only 47.6% of their red zone trips into touchdowns from Week 7 on, which is the concern about Tennessee's offense. When you get to the red zone as often as the 1-5 Panthers, and you have only two plays of more than 50 yards in six weeks, you need to be devastatingly efficient when you get there to win games. Over the rest of the season, even if the Titans are merely as good as they typically are in the red zone as opposed to this absurd 2022 performance, they're going to need to make more frequent trips inside the red zone to keep their offense going.
The offense can help by staying on the field longer; the Titans' 35.6% third-down conversion rate is 25th in the league, which is low for an offense with a player such as Henry. Mike Vrabel's team needs only to follow in their defense's footsteps, as the Titans are allowing opposing offenses to convert 27.1% of the time on third down, which is the second-best rate in the league.
Is that sustainable? Probably not. They don't have a track record of being particularly dominant on third down in the way that their offense does in the red zone. Teams that perform way better (or worse) on third down than they do on first and second down typically see their third-down performance play out more like the first two downs over time, and the Titans fit that bill. They are the league's 22nd-best defense by expected points added (EPA) per play on first down and 32nd on second down, but they're the best defense in the league on third down.
What they've been able to do over the past three weeks, aided by a series of compromised offensive lines, is tee off on opposing quarterbacks. Pass rush looked to be a serious problem, given that they lost Harold Landry III to a torn ACL before the season and have had Bud Dupree for only 68 snaps across five games. Tennessee doesn't blitz a ton, as its blitz rate is the sixth lowest this season.
Despite that, the Titans rank above average in both pressure rate and sack rate. Denico Autry has always been a good player, but the 32-year-old is off to his best start as a pro. Autry beat Colts star Quenton Nelson for a strip-sack of Matt Ryan earlier this season and bull-rushed Bills right tackle Spencer Brown back into Josh Allen for another sack, so he has shown more range than most would have expected.
The truly unexpected surprise has been the play of 2021 fourth-rounder Rashad Weaver, who racked up two sacks in the opener and has earned a regular role with Dupree out of the lineup. Weaver has created the initial pressure on 11.1% of his dropbacks, which puts him between veterans stars Shaquil Barrett and Khalil Mack for 21st in the league. Autry is just behind him at 33rd, and superstar tackle Jeffery Simmons joins them at 40. Just five other teams have three pass-rushers in that metric's top 50.
After their wild first two weeks of the season, the Titans have a formula that's working. They run the ball reasonably well, score virtually every time they get into the red zone and get off the field on third down on defense. They've turned the ball over once during this three-game winning streak while posting a turnover margin of plus-4.
It's easy to see how narrow that formula has been for winning. The Titans came within a 2-point conversion of blowing a 24-10 lead to the Raiders in Week 3. Two weeks ago, they had to survive a first-and-goal from the 2-yard line with a four-point lead and 19 seconds left against the Commanders to beat one of the league's worst teams. And yet, every year, it seems like we're having this same conversation about how the Titans can't keep winning all these close games before they keep doing exactly that.
The Titans need to improve on offense. Even the best versions of this team can't count on converting virtually every one of their red zone trips into touchdowns, and given that the Titans are 29th in EPA per play outside of the red zone, they have to improve. I would be surprised if that change didn't happen as the season goes along.
Beyond that, their chances depend on keeping that pass rush going and getting the most out of Henry. Even if he isn't his peak self, his 2021 version, the one who has been around the past three weeks is good enough to push them forward, create opportunities off play-action and contribute to winning games. Asking for the top seed in the AFC again might be too much, but the Titans look well positioned to claim the AFC South.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
The team that beat the Titans and the Chiefs last postseason might have a pretty strong case, too! The defending conference champions are 3-3, but they've outscored their opponents by 23 points, the fifth-best mark in the conference. FPI and Pro Football Reference's Simple Rating System both have the Bengals as the third-best team in the AFC. DVOA has them 12th in the league and seventh in the conference, but that's actually better than where they finished a year ago, when they ended within a drive of the Lombardi Trophy.
DVOA sees the Bengals' defense carrying this team, in part because the offense is adjusting to a new metagame. Here's quarterback Joe Burrow's EPA per dropback against coverage shells with zero or one deep safety (Cover 0, Cover 1 or Cover 3) and against looks with two deep safeties (Cover 2 or Cover 4), split by season:
Cover 0, Cover 1 or Cover 3: 0.22 in 2021; 0.17 in 2022
Cover 2 or Cover 4: minus-0.01 in 2021; minus-0.12 in 2022
Burrow has been as good as he was in 2021 against single-high looks. (He hasn't seen a single Cover 0 snap, at least per the automated analysis from ESPN Stats & Information.) He has declined more notably against split-safety looks, though, and given how terrified teams are of getting beaten over the top against wideouts Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Bengals are seeing them more often than ever.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Burrow has gone from seeing split-safety coverages 45% of the time in 2021 to 52% this season. The latter mark is the second highest for every-week starters, trailing only the Raiders' Derek Carr. As a result, Burrow has gone from averaging a league-high 8.9 yards per attempt last season to just 7.1 yards this season, which ranks 14th.
There are two ways to get teams out of playing two-deep shells. One is to run the ball effectively, and Joe Mixon and the Cincinnati backs are 23rd in the league in rushing DVOA. Mixon has been better over the past two weeks, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt across 22 carries, but he has been the sixth-worst back in the league by RYOE and fifth worst by first downs over expectation (FDOE).
The only backs with at least 50 carries averaging fewer yards per rush are Cam Akers, who is losing his job with the Rams, and Najee Harris, who has been playing through a foot injury in a broken Steelers offense. Mixon sees the fourth-highest percentage of light boxes (six defenders or fewer), so it's not as if teams are loading up to stop the run. He needs to be more productive to force teams out of two-deep coverages.
The blocking isn't always great for Mixon, and that infamous pass protection is the other problem. If teams can get pressure with their front four, they can drop seven into safe coverage and force the Bengals to slowly work their way down the field. Here, things are getting better. The line was a disaster the first two weeks of the season, but after allowing 13 sacks in two games, it has given up nine over the ensuing four games.
Burrow's pressure rate also has come way down. He's being bothered at the sixth-lowest rate over the past four games, in part because he's getting the ball out quickly. His average pass has come out after 2.61 seconds, the fifth-quickest rate in the NFL. For a team whose dramatic run to the Super Bowl was built on protecting the football, the Bengals are doing a good job there. After turning the ball over five times in the opening-week loss to the Steelers, they have turned the ball over only three times across their ensuing five games.
With their downfield passing attack limited by coverages, the Bengals aren't quite as spectacular as they were a year ago. In 2021, they were right around league average in terms of explosive play differential at plus-2. (A run for 12 or more yards or a pass of 16 or more yards in this case.) No team had more 50-plus-yard gains than the Bengals, who racked up 12 in the regular season and two more in the playoffs.
This season, Cincinnati has three plays of 50-plus yards, and not coincidentally, it has one in each of its three victories. Two of them have been long runs after the catch, one by Tyler Boyd against the Jets, the other on a broken-tackle spree from Chase against the Saints last Sunday.
Cincinnati's explosive-play differential is minus-13 this season, the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. The four teams below them include three whose seasons are essentially over (the Panthers, Steelers and Texans) and one in first place (the 5-1 Vikings, who have had major problems in their secondary). Burrow and the offense should create more explosive plays as the season goes along.
I believe in the defense, and I don't think the special teams will have too many disaster days like we saw against the Steelers in the opener. The key difference for this team is going to be that rushing attack. If the Bengals can get Mixon going and force teams to move a safety into the box, it's going to create opportunities for the passing attack to hit those devastating shots downfield. If the running game still flails, though, they might not have enough to recreate their glory days from a year ago, at least regularly enough to win the North.
They'll also have to beat a difficult schedule to get there. Per the FPI, the Bengals have faced the league's eighth-easiest schedule to start the season and will face its third-toughest slate from here. The only other teams with more difficult schedules are their AFC North brethren, the Browns and Steelers.
Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
The Chargers, the only other 4-2 team left in the AFC, are succeeding despite a nasty run of injuries. In addition to quarterback Justin Herbert playing through a rib injury, they have lost star tackle Rashawn Slater (biceps) for the season, have spent most of the season without wideout Keenan Allen (hamstring) and have edge rusher Joey Bosa (groin) on injured reserve. That alone would be a brutal start to the season for any team.
Onto that pile, you can add cornerback J.C. Jackson (ankle), who has missed multiple games. Kicker Dustin Hopkins (hamstring) missed Week 5 and then played through an injury in Week 6; he'll be out two to four weeks. Center Corey Linsley missed Week 3 (knee) and then sat out Monday's win over the Broncos because of food poisoning. As you can see from Herbert's splits, he has been a totally different quarterback without his star center this season:
With Linsley on the field: 75.3 QBR
Without Linsley on the field: 40.8 QBR
Whether it has been the absence of Allen, the more recent injuries to Slater and Linsley, or the rib cartilage ailing Herbert, the Chargers haven't been as impressive on offense as they were a year ago. They've dropped from fourth to 12th in DVOA and made a similar drop in EPA per play. In what was expected to be his breakout season, Herbert's QBR has dropped from 70.9 a year ago to 59.5.
The offense still takes shots downfield at the same rate it did in 2021, but with Allen out, the intermediate game hasn't been active. Herbert's average pass travels more than a full yard shorter than last season, and he has gone from throwing passes at or behind the line of scrimmage 19% of the time to 26%, with the latter mark the league's seventh-highest rate. He has actually been more efficient when he throws in that intermediate range this season, but those plays haven't come as often.
Los Angeles' running game has ground to a halt, with one exception. In the 30-28 victory over the Browns, Austin Ekeler & Co. carried the ball 34 times for 238 yards and two touchdowns. They generated 0.4 EPA per play, which was No. 1 among rushing attacks in Week 5. For a week, facing a run defense that has been horrific, the Chargers were a balanced offense.
Over the rest of the season, they simply haven't been able to move the ball on the ground. They're generating minus-0.1 EPA per rush attempt, which is the seventh-worst mark. The minus-99 RYOE generated by their various backs ranks last, and they are second worst in RYOE per carry and FDOE, behind the Dolphins in both cases. The Chargers don't run the ball often, which limits how much a subpar running game hurts the team, but they absolutely need to be more efficient when they do hand the ball off.
There are reasonable questions about what they are doing in quick game, where coordinator Joe Lombardi's playsheet seems to consist of a few limited answers. Last season, Herbert posted a 76.2 QBR on forward passes within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage, which was sixth best in the league. This season, his QBR on those same passes is just 51.1, which ranks 22nd. The hope naturally will be that Allen gives them a better answer on those shorter routes, but he hasn't been on the field enough.
With an offense that struggles to run the ball and doesn't throw the ball effectively, the Chargers unsurprisingly have been inconsistent. They rank ninth in three-and-out rate. They're 24th in red zone conversion rate, and as you might have heard, they're 6-for-14 on fourth down, which is a below-average success rate.
I don't think the Chargers have been too aggressive with their decisions on fourth down this season, but those choices have not paid off in execution. When they have attempted to convert with a run or pass on fourth down, they've cost themselves minus-0.3 wins in the process, which ranks 29th. Last season, the 1.3 wins the Chargers generated with fourth-down plays was tops in the league, in part because they went for it so often.
And yet, despite the offensive frustration, the injuries and the fourth-down frustrations, L.A. is 4-2. It has been outscored by 11 points and gone 3-1 in one-score games, so you could argue it has been fortunate to stand where it is after six weeks. The Chargers got a spectacularly timed interception against Jacoby Brissett in Week 5 to preserve that victory over the Browns.
Those wins are in the bank, though, and we know they have the top-end talent to compete with any team. They face the league's 10th-easiest schedule from here, and they're one week away from a bye, giving Herbert and the injured players a much-needed week of rest. With games against the Seahawks and Falcons coming up, they could be 6-2 in advance of their games against the 49ers and Chiefs.
And yet, would it be a surprise if the Chargers lost to either of those teams? They still haven't had their stretch of football in which they look or feel convincing as one of the league's top teams, like the one we saw from the Bengals in the second half of 2021. A win over the Seahawks on Sunday would give Staley his first four-game winning streak. Even in this run, they've seemingly played down to their competition. They likely can't sustain this level of play and keep winning, but with the possibility of getting Allen and Bosa back and Herbert healthier after the bye, there's the possibility they raise their level of play and keep this streak going.
Lightning round: The other possibilities
The New England Patriots (3-3) have won two straight in dominating fashion despite starting untested rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe. The fourth-round pick has been brilliant, and the Patriots rank seventh in EPA per play on offense and first in drive success rate over that stretch. If the offense sustains this level of play after Mac Jones returns and the defense continues to force takeaways, they should be able to rely on the same formula that won them 10 games a year ago.
The Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1) haven't won pretty, but Sunday was the first signs of life for what had been a moribund offense. Without running back Jonathan Taylor, they decided to go no huddle and play at a fast tempo. Quarterback Matt Ryan went 42-of-58 for 389 yards with three touchdown passes, and crucially, he wasn't sacked once. Indy's defense has held up its end of the bargain and ranks 13th in DVOA despite the absence of linebacker Shaquille Leonard, who has been limited by injuries to 16 snaps this season. If the offense we saw last week is sustainable, the Colts could be good enough to win the AFC South. Beating the Titans in their rematch this week is key.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) are a less imposing version of the Ravens, as Doug Pederson's team has blown fourth-quarter leads to the Commanders and Colts. Play-by-play metrics are still fond of the Jags, who rank eighth in the league in DVOA after six weeks, but they might have missed their chance. Per Football Outsiders, they have played the league's second-easiest schedule through six weeks and will play a league-average slate from here. It's not out of the question they rise up to claim a competitive South, but they've got work to do.
Which team actually is third best in the AFC?
I'll go with the Ravens, who have shown the highest ceiling of any of these teams so far. They should be able to figure out their fourth-quarter woes to start closing out games the way they did in years past. And unlike the rest of the AFC North, their schedule is relatively manageable over the remainder of the season.
I wouldn't say I'm confident in John Harbaugh's team, but in a very weird season, I'm not sure I'm confident in anybody besides the Bills and Chiefs.