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senior NFL national reporter- Jeremy Fowler is a senior national NFL writer for ESPN, covering the entire league including breaking news. Jeremy also contributes to SportsCenter both as a studio analyst and a sideline reporter covering for NFL games. He is an Orlando, Florida native who joined ESPN in 2014 after covering college football for CBSSports.com.
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senior NFL national reporter- Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.
It's NFL Week 7, and for a large number of the league's teams, things could really go either way. There are (count 'em) 10 teams sitting at 3-3 heading into the second-to-last weekend of October, a group composed of perceived 3-3 underachievers (Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers), scrappy 3-3 overachievers (Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks) and a trio of 3-3s that feels just about right (Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers).
This week's around-the-league exercise from ESPN Insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler sizes up those 3-3s, while Graz and Fowler also focus on what stands up as the worst transaction of the 2022 offseason, who will come out of the thus-far disappointing AFC North, what the New York Giants' surprising 5-1 start might mean for their biggest stars and whom the Carolina Panthers might target as their coaching search gets underway. Also, for good measure are our dynamic duo's top upset and fantasy picks and all the top buzz they're hearing from around the league as Week 7 commences.
Jump to:
Sorting 3-3 teams | Worst transaction
AFC North winner? | Giants stars
Panthers coach search | Upset picks
Fantasy start/sit | Everything we're hearing
Which 3-3 team are you most sure about reaching the playoffs, and which are you most certain won't reach the playoffs?
Graziano: I'll take the Ravens as the most likely to reach the playoffs from this group. They've played a lot more good quarters than bad ones so far. The coaching staff has the experience to make me think they can iron out their problems with fourth-quarter defense. They have one of the easiest schedules the rest of the way, and they've already beaten the Bengals, so they have the tiebreaker edge on them. I have some confidence in Cincinnati, too, but I used that tiebreaker thing as, well ... the tiebreaker.
The one I'm most concerned about on this list is the Patriots, largely because of a remaining schedule that includes both of their games against the Bills, both of their games against the Jets, road trips to Minnesota, Las Vegas and Arizona, and home games against the Bengals and Dolphins. Not a lot of easy outs. The Pats are playing better, for sure, but I think their personnel shortages on offense will catch up with them against their tough remaining schedule.
Fowler: Give me the Packers on surest playoff bet. Yes, the past two weeks have been ugly. But an Aaron Rodgers-led team is a near certainty for playoff positioning. Green Bay has made the playoffs in 11 of Rodgers' past 12 healthy seasons (not counting 2017, when Rodgers missed much of the season with a broken collarbone). The defense is too talented not to perk up. Receivers will get healthier soon. And the Packers could acquire a new pass-catcher via trade.
Atlanta sneaking into the playoffs with a clearly transitional roster would be impressive, which is why I'll place them in the least certain category. Save maybe Brian Daboll in New York, no coaching staff is doing more with less than Arthur Smith and the Falcons. And the schedule is manageable, hitting the Panthers twice, the Bears and the Commanders before Week 13. It's doable. But the other rosters probably have more talent, so I'll use that as a tiebreaker.
Through six weeks, what looks like the worst offseason transaction so far?
Fowler: Russell Wilson to the Broncos. A player of Wilson's caliber deserves some level of grace that he'll turn things around. But if we're talking the worst transaction so far, then it's hard to dispute the harsh reality: The Denver Broncos gave up five draft picks (including two firsts) and three key players for the right to pay a quarterback $50 million per year only to rank 25th in QBR (35.8). The six-game sample is not good, and Seattle is looking like the early winner in the trade.
Graziano: Wilson is the clear answer, but Jeremy got to go first on this question, so I'm stuck trying to come up with something that compares to that disaster. How about Baker Mayfield? Carolina didn't pay anything close, in terms of dollars or draft picks, to what the Broncos paid for Wilson. But the extent to which the Mayfield trade didn't work is stunning. The thinking was something like, "Well, he HAS to be better than Sam Darnold at least," but he was not. The offense never got off the ground, Mayfield is now injured and head coach Matt Rhule has been fired. Obviously, some of that was in motion before Mayfield got there, but it's tough to look at that acquisition and not consider it a complete flop.
Who's going to win the AFC North?
Graziano: Ravens, but I think it's really close between them and the Bengals. As I mentioned above, I think if I have to pick this one right now, I lean Baltimore because of the schedule edge and the fact it has the head-to-head win in its pocket. But I think they're both playoff teams and would not be remotely surprised if Joe Burrow & Co. repeated as division champs.
Fowler: Bengals. Since I don't quite trust the Ravens' late-game play right now, we're onto Cincinnati, which has the best collection of talent in the division. When healthy, the offense can hum. The offensive appears to be improving after a shaky start. And the defense ranks 10th in points allowed (19.2 per game) despite missing key players because of injury. Linebacker Logan Wilson and defensive tackle DJ Reader should be back eventually.
Your prediction on Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley wearing a New York Giants uniform in 2023: One, both or neither?
Fowler: Maybe Jones, but probably neither. The Giants feel like an accidental winner, with eyes on rebuilding for 2023 and beyond. GM Joe Schoen inherited a roster with contracts he didn't negotiate and salary-cap constraints. The goal was to clean things up and build a winner in the image of Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll. How they are sitting at 5-1 despite all of that is an impressive feat, but that shouldn't hinder New York from drafting its quarterback of the future in the first round of the draft if the right one is available. Now, signing Jones to a bridge-quarterback deal, similar to the two-year pact Jameis Winston got with New Orleans, could make some sense as a way to reward Jones' winning ways while planning for life without him. But he might not go for that. As for Barkley, uniqueness as a player could help him overcome a suppressed running back market. There's always at least one team in free agency looking to make a splash move. Don't see the Giants being one.
Graziano: Neither. This is a "follow the money" deal for me. Jones has shown the Giants a lot so far this year, especially given how little he has had to work with in the receiving corps. And the Giants, who have five wins already, might not be picking high enough in the first round to land one of the superstar QB prospects in next year's draft. But I think the temptation for GM Joe Schoen to restart the contract clock with a young quarterback is going to be too great to convince him to re-sign Jones unless it's on a really cheap deal. And even then, it might be best for all involved to just move on. As for Barkley, assuming he stays healthy and keeps producing the way he has so far, he's going to command big running back money. And no one -- especially a rebuilding team with big questions at several key positions -- should be doling out big money to a running back.
What do you expect from the Carolina Panthers coaching search?
Graziano: My understanding is that team owner David Tepper is looking for someone with previous NFL head-coaching experience. That could mean they take a big swing at Sean Payton, but I doubt Payton wants to go to a place where the QB situation isn't settled. (Also, the Saints, who still have Payton under contract and could demand compensation from a team that wants to hire him, might not be thrilled with the idea of him coaching another team in their division.) Could a veteran former head coach like a Jim Caldwell, Leslie Frazier or Marvin Lewis be the answer?
Fowler: Dan, I could see steadying voices such as those getting consideration. I also think the quarterback position looms large here after the Panthers' disastrous three-year experiment there. Gotta find someone who can maximize the Panthers' passing game. That's why young options such as Philadelphia's Shane Steichen or New York's Mike Kafka could be intriguing, because they have had success without top passers. And the Panthers need someone with a clear direction and a penchant for culture-building. Rhule's mostly college-based experience showed, and Tepper will want upgrades there.
What's your top upset pick for Week 7?
Graziano: Jets (+2) over Broncos. I don't think the oddsmakers have caught on yet to how good the Jets are (and maybe how bad the Broncos are!). The Jets ought to be able to run the ball on the Broncos, which is the way they want to operate their offense anyway, and their defense is legitimately excellent and should easily handle whatever this is the Broncos are calling an offense these days.
Fowler: Giants (+3) over Jaguars. The blatant disrespect for the team with the NFL's second-best record! The Jaguars appear much improved, but it's hard to say they are better than New York, which has a clear formula for winning built around Saquon Barkley, timely playcalling and an opportunistic defense. The Giants just knocked off the Packers and the Ravens; they should be able to handle the AFC South.
What's your fantasy football call of the week?
Fowler: Colts rookie tight end Jelani Woods continues momentum. Woods' scoring prowess -- with three touchdown catches in his past four games -- makes him an attractive upside play, but look deeper at the Colts' offense and his role in it. From Week 4 to Week 6, Woods' snap count rose from 15 to 23 to 31 in last week's win over Jacksonville, which felt like a breakthrough. Expect the Colts to foster quarterback Matt Ryan's connection with rookies Woods and Alec Pierce moving forward.
Graziano: A second strong game in a row for Ezekiel Elliott. The Lions' defense has been extremely vulnerable to both the run and the pass this year, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (behind only Houston). I'm thinking the Cowboys (a) might want to ease Dak Prescott back into action after five weeks on the shelf and (b) feel good about the way the run game -- and the offense in general -- has operated without Dak. I think Zeke and Tony Pollard are good plays here this week.
Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?
Graziano
Robbie Anderson to the Cardinals got the trade-deadline action started early, but if your team needs a wide receiver, there are still some guys who could be on the move. The Jets' Denzel Mims, the Patriots' Kendrick Bourne and the Steelers' Chase Claypool are among the wideouts that teams expect to be available prior to the Nov. 1 deadline. If you're waiting around on Odell Beckham Jr., you might have to wait a while longer. Two team executives familiar with the Beckham situation told me last week that the realistic time frame for Beckham to be recovered from his knee injury and available to play is around mid-December.
Speaking of the trade deadline, you should keep paying attention after it has passed to see about guys who could get waived the way Beckham was by the Rams last November. A veteran player who has one year left on his contract can, if waived after the trade deadline and claimed by another team, opt out of the final year of his deal and become a free agent. So, for instance, take Commanders CB William Jackson III, who's believed to be available in trade but is making $5 million this year and $12.5 million next year (the final year of his deal). If the Commanders can't trade Jackson, and they decide to release him after the deadline passes, and another team claims his contract, he would have the ability to void the 2023 season of his contract and become a free agent next March.
I don't think the same rule applies to Rams RB Cam Akers, who has one year left on his rookie contract, because I believe it applies only to veteran contracts. But Akers is certainly available in trade, as head coach Sean McVay basically came out and admitted Monday, even as the Rams' offense remains stuck in the mud. The Rams have rookie running back Kyren Williams due back from injury in the coming weeks, and he was slated for a big role in the run game before he got injured in Week 1. They also expect wide receiver Van Jefferson back at some point before the end of the season, and they see his impending return as one reason they might not have to go out and add a wide receiver on the trade market. Make no mistake, the Rams continue to keep tabs on Beckham, and the belief around the league is that he'll end up back in L.A. But again, it's hard to know right now when or if Beckham's knee will be back to full strength, so it's tough to make plans around him as your season savior.
Fowler
Spending last week in Buffalo, the Bills were tactful in how they discussed the Chiefs matchup, relaying every cliche possible about this being the next game on the schedule. One reason: They know they are really good and can let their play speak for them. But there's another motivation for the one-week-at-a-time mantra: The Bills want home-field playoff advantage, which would be a welcome change after two consecutive playoff losses in Arrowhead. "We're always over there," guard Rodger Saffold told me last week. "This game is important because when we do start getting down to the latter part in the season, maybe we are the holding team and have them come to us for once." Obviously, the Bills can't project that far ahead without handling each week first. How are they doing that? Buffalo players recently watched a Kobe Bryant video of the NBA great discussing the power of staying in the moment -- "stay where your feet are," as Saffold put it.
Arizona enters a crucial point of the season at 2-4, but I'm told the optimism exists internally in two forms: The defense has held the past four opponents to 20 points or fewer, and the return of DeAndre Hopkins has a chance to boost a sagging offensive attack. One NFL scout I talked to said the Cardinals are still getting receivers open, and moving the pocket for Kyler Murray might help the shorter-statured quarterback find more open guys. "Kyler needs a guy he can target and throw it up to in tight windows, and D-Hop can give him that," the scout said. "Gave him that all year last year." The point is, Arizona's ugly start isn't indicative of where the Cardinals might be a month from now. And what helps Arizona this week: Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry all have uphill battles to be healthy and active Thursday night.
Following up on our Panthers notes on the trade deadline, here are some team building blocks I expect the Panthers to absolutely keep, barring a massive, too-good-to-be-true offer from a rival team: DJ Moore, Derrick Brown, Jeremy Chinn, Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn. Christian McCaffrey is not in that group, but the team is not overly eager to trade him and likely hasn't received significant offers yet. As was pointed out to me, he's their entire offense right now. ... In other Panthers news, Carolina is expected to activate quarterback Sam Darnold's 21-day practice window starting Wednesday, I'm told. He likely won't play this week but could get himself in the mix next week, which deepens the intrigue if Baker Mayfield is then ready to play on his injured ankle (he's largely considered doubtful this week but we'll see). Maybe the Panthers will orchestrate a QB competition all over again.
The Bengals could be without one of their best defenders for at least a few weeks. Linebacker Logan Wilson has a shoulder sublux injury that could come with a two-to-five-week recovery. He'll miss this week's game, for sure. Wilson has seven interceptions from the linebacker spot since entering the league in 2020.
Steelers QB Mitch Trubisky told me his 9-of-12 relief performance for 144 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Bucs was a byproduct of playing loose and free, capitalizing on another chance to see the field and help the team. "Was just seeing it well and quick reactions," he said. "We stayed aggressive and I was just trying to make plays." Trubisky is in line to start if Kenny Pickett can't pass concussion protocol.