Let's pick quarter-season NFL awards for the 2022 campaign. It's ridiculous to hand out awards for four weeks of football -- and with 17 regular-season games now, we're not officially quite at the 25% mark -- but it's also a good time to take hold of what has happened across the league over the first month of the season and have a historical document for what we felt at the time.
Remember: This time a year ago, Sam Darnold was a Comeback Player of the Year favorite, and Kyler Murray looked like an MVP contender. A lot can change in three months.
This time, I'll pick my three early favorites for seven awards: Coach of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, and MVP.
These are my picks for who I think deserves to win over the first month of the season, not who I think will win at the end of the campaign. I'll generally abide by the rules and preferences we've seen from Associated Press voters in the past, although I'll make one notable exception when we get to Offensive Player of the Year. Let's start on defense:
Jump to an award:
MVP | Top comeback | Best coach
Best rookies: Offense | Defense
Players of the Year: Offense | Defense
Defensive Rookie of the Year
This award is typically dominated by young pass-rushers, but it hasn't been a great start for edge defenders this season. Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) is the only rookie with more than two sacks, but his three all came in one game against the Commanders, who hand out free sacks like they're candy on Halloween. Hutchinson ranks 54th out of 58 qualifying edge defenders in pass rush win rate, and it isn't as if the Lions have stopped anybody on defense through three games. No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker (Jaguars) has been promising, but he hasn't even been the best rookie first-rounder on the Jaguars.
Instead, we're blessed with a group of first-year cornerbacks competing for this award. Most rookie cornerbacks aren't playable on an every-down basis as they adjust to the speed of the NFL, so seeing as many as eight rookie corners with 150-plus defensive snaps through four weeks is a rare treat.
The two biggest names at the position were top-five picks Derek Stingley Jr. (Texans) and Sauce Gardner (Jets); they've had their moments so far. But two corners taken later in the draft have made a bigger impact for their teams.
3. Jaylen Watson, CB, Chiefs
Stepping in as a starter when first-round pick Trent McDuffie went down with a hamstring injury in the opener, Watson might not be giving back the right cornerback job once McDuffie is ready to return. Watson, a seventh-round pick, was not supposed to be covering the opposing team's top wide receiver, but because the Chiefs keep him one side of the field, he has gotten a disproportionate percentage of his targets against stars such as Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr. and Mike Williams.
Watson has allowed two touchdowns in two weeks against a pair of standouts -- Evans and Marquise Brown -- but has made enough plays to more than make up for those scores. Watson has generated minus-8.9 expected points added (EPA) as the nearest defender in coverage so far, which ranks second among rookie cornerbacks. He has broken up four of the 28 targets in his direction, but his most notable play helped swing a game for the Chiefs, as he took a Justin Herbert pass 99 yards to the house for a pick-six.
2. Tariq Woolen, CB, Seahawks
Pete Carroll rightfully has been regarded as a coach who can draft and develop cornerbacks as well as anybody. Remember that the corners in the Legion of Boom didn't enter the league as stars: Richard Sherman was a fifth-round pick, Byron Maxwell was a sixth-rounder and Brandon Browner was undrafted and playing in the CFL. Carroll targeted big, toolsy cornerbacks and helped mold them into superstars.
A decade later, Carroll might have found his next standout in Woolen, a fifth-round pick who entered the league with 99th-percentile height and 40-yard dash time. He is a converted receiver who had only two years of cornerback experience before entering the league; the expectation was that Woolen would need some time before stepping into the Seahawks' lineup.
Scratch that. The 6-foot-4 Woolen has played 93% of Seattle's snaps, and the early returns are stunning. The 23-year-old has allowed a 33.1 passer rating in coverage and already has picked off two passes, taking one to the house for his first score against Jared Goff and the Lions last week. Woolen is still a bit of a boom-or-bust player -- he has allowed more than 8 yards per target -- but the Seahawks are getting a player who can run with anyone and appears to have promising ball skills. There's superstar upside here.
1. Devin Lloyd, LB, Jaguars
The most visible defensive rookie through three games is the guy manning the middle for the Jags. Organizations don't really value inside linebackers at the top of the first round, so we've seen players such as Luke Kuechly and C.J. Mosley fall further than they should. Lloyd, who fell all the way to No. 27, might be the next player on that list.
With six pass breakups and two interceptions through four games, Lloyd already looks like a seasoned pro in pass coverage. To put that in context, no linebacker had more than Kyle Van Noy's 10 pass breakups for the entire 2021 season, regardless of how experienced they were. Lloyd has done that as a rookie in four weeks. No other linebacker has broken up more than three passes in four weeks, and the guy who did was Devin White, an All-Pro-caliber defender.
The interceptions are actually the least impressive of Lloyd's breakups, because they were both tip-drill plays in which Lloyd happened to be nearby. His work disrupting passes that fell incomplete has been far more entertaining to watch. Lloyd was able to run upfield with Gerald Everett, one of the league's speedier tight ends, and break up a seam route in man coverage. He stole a touchdown away from Matt Ryan on a scramble drill with a spectacularly acrobatic play. Watch Lloyd take away a dig route from Herbert when Herbert works through his progression:
Devin Lloyd (33) follows Justin Herbert's eyes to break up the dig to Gerald Everett pic.twitter.com/eLZUINHE88
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 4, 2022
Lloyd already is a valuable player for the league's sixth-ranked defense by defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Amid one of the most defense-heavy first rounds in recent memory, the two offensive positions teams targeted were tackle and wide receiver. The former is off to a slow start. Evan Neal (Giants) and Ikem Ekwonu (Panthers) have struggled, while Trevor Penning (Saints) has been out injured. Charles Cross (Seahawks) has been impressive, while interior linemen Tyler Linderbaum (Ravens) and Cole Strange (Patriots) continue to grow more comfortable each week.
The wide receivers have been more explosive, and they're featured in this top three. We've seen flashes from George Pickens (Steelers) and Jahan Dotson (Commanders), while Romeo Doubs arguably has been the Packers' best wide receiver since assuming a larger role in Week 3. Drake London (Falcons) only has run about 22 routes per game, which hurts his candidacy, since he is garnering targets on a whopping 37.7% of his routes, more than any wide receiver so far.
3. Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans
Pierce is the rare case of a midround pick who attracted hype after the draft in April, won the job in camp and emerged quickly as a valuable contributor. The Texans used Pierce behind Rex Burkhead in Week 1, but Pierce has been their primary back since, and the results have been promising.
Over the past three weeks, Pierce is fourth in the league in rushing yards and tied for sixth in first downs. He took a 75-yarder to the house against the Chargers last week, leaving Los Angeles safety Nasir Adderley in his wake after an open-field cut.
By NFL Next Gen Stats, Pierce has 99 rush yards over expectation (RYOE) versus what an average back would have produced in that three-game span. That ranks second in the league behind Chicago's Khalil Herbert. The only thing holding Pierce back has been a pair of fumbles, but defenses already are worried about the fourth-round pick's big-play ability.
2. Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets
1. Chris Olave, WR, Saints
These two wideouts are in a tier of their own, and the race between them is incredibly close. I wouldn't blame anyone for picking Wilson, and I'll make a case for him here as we discuss both. His 16 catches and 203 receiving yards rank second among rookies.
The argument for Wilson is that his production has directly led to wins. His best game was the eight-catch, 102-yard, two-score performance he had against the Browns in Week 2, when he torched cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. at the line for one score and caught the game-winning touchdown on a post route with 25 seconds to go. Wilson also had a 35-yard catch in the fourth quarter on Sunday to help set up their comeback win over the Steelers.
Olave has more catches (18) and receiving yards (294) on an identical 103 routes, but much of his work has come with the Saints trailing in the fourth quarter and Jameis Winston chucking the ball downfield out of hope. Olave has 163 receiving yards on plays in which his team started the snap with no more than a 10% chance of winning, which is second in the NFL among all receivers behind Terry McLaurin. Olave also lost a fumble after a 51-yard catch against the Bucs, albeit at the end of a spectacular play.
At the same time, Olave's efficiency can't be written off. He is averaging 2.9 yards per route run, which is superstar territory. The only starting wide receivers of any vintage averaging more yards per route run than Olave are Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tee Higgins and Noah Brown. That's an elite group, with Brown as an exception. Olave already has drawn 33 targets, which ranks third in the NFL. He also set up what could have been the game-tying field goal with a 32-yard catch on the final possession against the Vikings, although Wil Lutz came up narrowly short on the league's latest double doink, a 61-yard miss.
Olave arguably is the focal point of a receiving offense with a pair of highly talented targets in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, although both missed the Vikings game. Olave also hasn't dropped a pass across those 33 targets, while Wilson has three drops on three would-be third-down conversions. Rank them however you want. I lean ever so slightly toward Olave's efficiency and penchant for the spectacular.
Coach of the Year
This is normally the award for the coach whose team blows away its preseason over-under in Las Vegas. The voters typically favor first-year coaches who turn around their teams immediately, but last year was an exception, with Mike Vrabel taking home the nod for his top-seeded Titans. You could make a case that veteran coaches such as Mike Tomlin (Steelers), Andy Reid (Chiefs) and Bill Belichick (Patriots) should be competing for this award every season.
This season has plenty of candidates for the first-year turnaround, with three debuting coaches taking their teams to 3-1 to begin the season. Doug Pederson (Jaguars) might be doing the best job of them all, given that Jacksonville nearly has as many wins in 2022 (two) as it did in all of 2021 (three). Needing to leave one out for the top three, I'll pick Brian Daboll (Giants), whose great job has been partially aided by a schedule including Chicago and Carolina.
3. Kevin O'Connell, Vikings
Sitting in first place in the NFC North, the Vikings hold a crucial tiebreaker by virtue of their most impressive win of the season. Minnesota blew out Green Bay in Week 1 in a 23-7 victory fueled more by Ed Donatell's defense than O'Connell's offense. That one week stands as the exception, as Minnesota heads into Week 5 ranked 13th in offensive DVOA and 26th defensively, owing primarily to an injury-hit secondary.
The Vikings still look like a work in progress on offense, as they have stretches where they can run the ball effectively, seem to unlock Justin Jefferson as an unstoppable playmaker and get all their other playmakers open for easy completions. They rarely seem to piece those functions together at the same time, though.
The good news for a team that already had to face the Eagles and Packers is that things should get easier as it grows more comfortable in the offense; Kirk Cousins & Co. have faced the league's fifth-toughest slate of opponents so far, per Football Outsiders, but they have the third-easiest schedule moving forward.
2. Mike McDaniel, Dolphins
The Dolphins are a more extreme version of the Vikings, as they rank second in the league in offensive DVOA and 28th against the pass. McDaniel's offense has been an instant hit, most memorably in the Fins' dramatic comeback victory against Baltimore. Miami ranks third in the league in EPA per play and rate of plays producing 20 or more yards. It also has beaten impressive competition in the Bills, Patriots and Ravens.
The disastrous mishandling of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's concussion check against the Bills and Tagovailoa's subsequent injury against the Bengals colors what had been an exciting start. McDaniel publicly has said the right things about putting Tagovailoa's health first and not being willing to put someone out on the field prematurely, and the joint investigation into the situation by the league and the NFLPA continues. For now, all we know is the Dolphins will move forward with Teddy Bridgewater as their starter this week against the Jets.
1. Nick Sirianni, Eagles
Outside of Matt LaFleur in Green Bay and Reid in Kansas City, has anybody so obviously and dramatically improved his team quicker than Sirianni? He took over a 2021 Eagles team that was about to trade away Carson Wentz and rebuild. The organization was a national laughingstock after seemingly tanking on national television in Week 17 of the 2020 season. Sirianni's initial news conference became a meme, and more in the Adam Gase way than the Dan Campbell way. The Eagles started 2-5, and Sirianni looked like he might be overmatched.
Since then, they've gone 11-3 in the regular season, including a 4-0 start in 2022. The only team with a better record, point differential or scoring offense over that stretch has been the Chiefs. Sirianni's 2022 squad ranks fourth in offensive DVOA and third in defensive DVOA; the only reason it trails the Ravens in overall DVOA has been a sloppy start on special teams.
Don't anticipate this changing anytime soon, either. The Eagles have one of the easiest projected schedules over the remainder of the season. They don't play any more games against teams that won a playoff game last season.
The only worrying thing for the Eagles might be injuries; they expect to miss left tackle Jordan Mailata for a stretch after a shoulder injury against the Jaguars, but they still are relatively healthy compared to their competition. Sirianni leads the unquestioned best team in football right now, and many of the Eagles' players have gotten noticeably better since his arrival.
Comeback Player of the Year
This award almost always goes to players coming back from serious injuries, with rare exceptions for veterans who return to their prior form after years of seemingly fading into the sunset. This year, I landed on two players from the former category and one from the latter.
It feels a little strange leaving out quarterback Geno Smith (Seahawks), but I'm not sure we can even qualify what he has done as a comeback as opposed to a breakout at age 31.
3. Jeff Okudah, CB, Lions
Life hasn't gone exactly as planned for Okudah since entering the league as the No. 3 overall pick in 2020. He struggled badly in his debut season under Matt Patricia, who drafted the 6-foot-1 corner to be his version of Stephon Gilmore. After Patricia was fired after that season, Okudah tore his left Achilles in the 2021 season opener. There were serious questions about whether the Lions would pick up Okudah's fifth-year option without a significant improvement in 2022.
So far, so good. As Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf suggested last week, the Lions are giving Okudah plenty of help over the top in coverage, but the 23-year-old is playing like a legitimate NFL cornerback. Okudah has allowed a 95.1 passer rating in coverage this season, down from a mark of 118 as a rookie.
NFL Next Gen Stats say he has allowed a completion percentage 5.6 points below expectation on his 20 targets this season, and he has broken up three passes in the process. He has been the No. 1 corner on a Lions defense that plays man coverage as often as any other team. The numbers aren't top-five-pick-worthy yet, but after two years of disappointments, Okudah is on the field and looking competent.
2. Khalil Mack, EDGE, Chargers
One of the few Los Angeles stars left standing after a rash of injuries, Mack has been the best of the Chargers' additions this offseason. He struggled with a back injury during his final few seasons in Chicago, but he looks like his old self this season. The 31-year-old is fourth in the league with five sacks and tied for eighth with seven knockdowns.
One of the reasons the Chargers traded a second-round pick to acquire Mack was to target an edge defender who was good against both the pass and the run. Mack has delivered in both roles. Among edge rushers this season, he's 14th in the league in pass rush win rate and ninth in run stop win rate, showing off his ability to make plays in all facets of the game. The only other players in the top 15 in both categories are Miami's Jaelan Phillips and Green Bay's Rashan Gary.
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants
Let's be real: This one has to be Barkley, who looks like the guy we saw during his 2018 rookie season. In some ways, he's even better.
Here are Barkley's splits in yards per carry, rush yards over expectation (RYOE) and percentage of carries gaining 20-plus yards between his 2018 debut, his 2022 resurgence and the three injury-hit seasons in between:
2018: 5.0 YPC, 1.1 RYOE, 6.1% of 20-plus-yard plays
2019-21: 4.1 YPC, 0.2 RYOE, 2.8% of 20-plus-yard plays
2022: 5.5 YPC, 1.6 RYOE, 4.8% of 20-plus-yard plays
Barkley is never going to be a super-efficient back in terms of staying on schedule with success rate, and he's not quite as slippery in terms of making the first guy miss as he was during that debut season.
With his acceleration back, though, Barkley can explode past defenders and then run away from them in the open field. It's fun to see him enjoying his football again.
Defensive Player of the Year
This one is going to be a slugfest. I started listing names and got to 10 before I even considered Aaron Donald (Rams), who probably should win this award every season, and Micah Parsons (Cowboys), who single-handedly has taken over games for stretches this season. They're not on this list, and I don't blame you for getting mad.
There are so many candidates playing in secondaries. You could name either of Eagles cornerbacks James Bradberry and Darius Slay, who have been the best one-two punch at the position this season. Talanoa Hufanga (49ers) has come out of nowhere to be one of the league's best safeties and had his national coming-out party with a pick-six against the Rams on Monday night. Chidobe Awuzie, part of the Bengals' franchise-altering free agent class of 2021, continues to get better and has held opposing quarterbacks to 5.0 yards per target.
Eventually, I had to narrow it down to three. Two were easy and had to be on there. The third was tougher. In a group of four edge rushers, I had to leave out three. Josh Allen (Jaguars) is off to a resurgent start, leading the league in hurries and is third in pressures, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The other Josh Allen is getting plenty of help from Von Miller (Bills), who is second in pressures. Rashan Gary (Packers) is in the top 15 in both pass rush and run stop win rate and has sacks in each of his first four games. He's quickly becoming unblockable.
Any of those guys wouldn't elicit any arguments, but I couldn't keep out another player who continues to improve.
3. Maxx Crosby, EDGE, Raiders
The best thing Jon Gruden did during his time with the Raiders was use a fourth-round pick on Crosby, who might be the most explosive rusher in the league in terms of creating plays in the backfield. Crosby has "only" four sacks this season, but his eight tackles for loss lead the NFL. He is tied with Washington's Jonathan Allen with nine stuffs, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which shows how effective Crosby is at creating havoc and negative plays.
In terms of tackles that create negative EPA for the offense, Crosby's 23 have him tied for third and surrounded by a sea of linebackers. The next-highest edge rusher on the list is Cameron Jordan, who has 16 for the Saints.
In the Broncos game alone, Crosby had four tackles for negative yardage. In the Chargers game, he stopped a fourth-and-1 Justin Herbert sneak by jumping over the pile from defensive end! I think he might have the wrong last name:
More and more convinced Maxx Crosby is secretly a Watt brother pic.twitter.com/BuEQ82pijj
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 5, 2022
Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Steelers
I'm not sure anybody has single-handedly done more to push his team toward winning on the defensive side of the ball than Fitzpatrick, who came within a foot out of bounds on Sunday against the Jets of his second touchdown of the season. A second score would have meant he had more touchdowns than any runner or receiver on the Steelers' offense, which would have told you how great he has been and what a mess the Pittsburgh playmakers looked like with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback.
As it is, all Fitzpatrick has done is dominate Pittsburgh's only win of the season with a pick-six and a blocked extra point to force the game into overtime. He has three interceptions and four passes defensed on the season, and he's No. 1 in the NFL in EPA generated as the nearest defender in coverage through four weeks. By Pro Football Reference's numbers, he has allowed an average of fewer than 5.0 yards per target this season. He's having a special season, albeit for a struggling team.
1. Nick Bosa, EDGE, 49ers
I just don't know that it's quite as special as what Bosa is doing. He has been extraordinary through the first four games. He leads the league in most pass-rushing categories, and while his six sacks are just narrowly ahead of Alex Highsmith's 5.5 and the five racked up by Gary and Mack, he dominates in the secondary categories and advanced statistics we have to estimate pass-rushing performance.
In terms of quarterback hits, the league leaders in the non-Bosa category are Allen and Parsons, who each have nine. Bosa has 16. The only player I can recall being more dominant in terms of quarterback knockdowns relative to the rest of the league is peak J.J. Watt, who had 51 in 2014 when nobody else had more than 28. Bosa has 22 quarterback pressures per NFL Next Gen Stats; nobody else tops 16 so far.
Fitzpatrick might have had the most clear and obvious impact on winning, but Bosa has been the best player at the most valuable position on the defensive side of the ball by a considerable margin.
Offensive Player of the Year
Here's where I make the exception I mentioned above. With quarterbacks locking down 14 of the past 15 MVP awards, this nod seems a little anachronistic. It's difficult to figure how a quarterback can be Most Valuable Player and not simultaneously the league's best offensive player. This award occasionally has gone to a running back or to a different quarterback, and that doesn't make any sense, either.
Let's just codify this award differently. I'm giving this to the best non-quarterback on offense. I would be willing to nominate individual offensive linemen, although no one is dominating at such a level that we can give them a vote here.
There actually is a relatively small group of candidates here. Barkley leads the league in rushing, but his inconsistency actually leaves him with negative rushing EPA; I have one running back on my list. I had tight ends Travis Kelce (Chiefs) and Mark Andrews (Ravens) narrowly missing out, leaving us with three wide receivers to fill the two remaining spots in the top three.
Of those three, the one I left out was the guy who won Offensive Player of the Year last season. Cooper Kupp (Rams) is attracting even more volume in 2022, with 54 targets through four games. His efficiency is not quite as impressive as it was a year ago, though. His 2.4 yards per route run ranks 18th and is down from 3.2 in 2021.
He has five more first downs than anybody else in football but also has dropped two passes and lost a fumble, which nearly cost the Rams a win over the Falcons. Kupp is still great, but our other two wideout choices are better.
3. Nick Chubb, RB, Browns
No player is more consistent than Chubb, who consistently posts numbers that place him as one of the league's top two or three runners, regardless of what's around him. This season, with Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry struggling for consistency, Chubb stands alone. He's well on his way to averaging more than 5.0 yards per carry for the fifth consecutive season, something that isn't supposed to happen at the highest level.
Advanced metrics love Chubb. He leads the league in rushing yards over expectation (146), rushing EPA (12.7) and first downs (21). Some of that owes to his 81 carries, which are tied for third in the league, but he combines significant volume with excellent efficiency. He generates 1.8 rush yards over expectation per carry, which is third in the league behind Aaron Jones and Khalil Herbert. He has picked up five first downs over expectation, which is tied behind Jones for second. His 45.7% success rate is ninth, and his five carries of 20 or more yards lead the league.
What makes Chubb truly unique is his ability to dominate in situations when the opposing team is loading up to stop him. During the offseason, I wrote about how Chubb dominates against loaded boxes. This season is no different. When all of the league's running backs average 4.2 yards per carry against loaded boxes, Chubb averages 6.1 yards per rush and generates 1.6 RYOE per attempt. If he were playing in the 1970s, he would be a multitime MVP. Here, he deserves to be considered one of the best offensive players in the league, full stop.
2. Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills
The difference between the 2020, 2021 and 2022 versions of Diggs comes down to catch rate. Here's what those seasons look like, prorating his 2020 and 2022 seasons to 17 games:
Diggs' numbers are right in line in what we saw from him in 2020, only with a touchdown spike. Both his expected catch rate and his catch rate over expectation were down in 2021, a product of being thrown tougher passes and year-to-year randomness. He has been great all three seasons, but that greatness is turning into more completions this year than it did in 2021.
What makes this even more impressive to me is that he simply has to be the guy for the Bills right now. In 2020, Diggs was playing alongside Cole Beasley, who came close to topping 1,000 yards. The Bills had John Brown for nine games, one year removed from a 1,060-yard season. The guys who were tertiary pieces on that team -- Devin Singletary, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox -- are now Buffalo's primary options beyond Diggs. Davis and Knox have been slowed by injuries, putting a huge workload on the former Vikings standout. Diggs has lived up to the task.
1. Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
Hill was supposed to struggle without Patrick Mahomes, but the 28-year-old had other ideas. He leads the league with 477 receiving yards, 71 more than any other player. He's averaging an out-of-this-world 3.8 yards per route run. Going back through 2007, there are only six players who have topped that through the first four weeks of the season, led by Randy Moss in his legendary 2007 season with the Patriots. DeSean Jackson, Wes Welker, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Green and Deebo Samuel are the only other players ahead of what Hill has done on a per-route basis over the first month of this season.
On 18 go routes this season, Hill has caught four passes on five targets for 198 yards and two touchdowns. He's averaging 11 yards per go. It would be one thing if he were just hitting a few deep shots, but he's also a chain-mover for the Dolphins. He has generated 16 first downs this season, tied for second in the league behind Kupp. He played a huge role in winning the game against the Ravens by scoring the two touchdowns, which got the Dolphins back tied with the Ravens.
About the only blemishes on Hill's 2022 season are a drop (on a pass thrown behind him by Tagovailoa) and a fumble, which went out of bounds. He does get to play with Jaylen Waddle, which takes some of the coverage pressure off him, but Hill now is doing this with a quarterback whom nobody had among the NFL's elite heading into the season.
Hill might suffer by the arrival of Bridgewater, who doesn't have a track record of feeding downfield threats, but he has been everything the Dolphins could have hoped for and more through four games.
Most Valuable Player
And then, there's the MVP award. It takes something truly special for a non-quarterback to even be in the discussion for votes, let alone make his way into the top three. With all due respect to Bosa and Hill, I'm not sure anyone is at that point. I'd love to see non-quarterbacks get their due and compete for the award, but this hasn't been the month for them.
In a four-week sample, lots of quarterbacks can clump up and look like candidates. It's much easier to separate over the course of 17 games than it is over four. This season might be an exception. I can get the short list down to seven quarterbacks who might require serious consideration. Picking between those seven is easier said than done. I'll start by trying to eliminate some of the runners-up.
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) has taken major strides forward in his second season, and he already looks like a superstar when unpressured; his 79.5 QBR there is sixth best in football. His completion percentage (65.7%) and yards per attempt (7.1) also are right around league average. Lawrence has picked up only two first downs as a runner, so that hasn't been a valuable part of his game in the way it's been for others. With less passing volume than the other quarterbacks on this list, I can't push him any higher than seventh.
Geno Smith (Seahawks) deserves to be in this conversation. He leads the league in just about every accuracy-related metric, including completion percentage (77.3%), completion percentage over expectation (10%), off-target rate (8.5%) and adjusted completion percentage (81.0%). Let's throw a blind comparison out there:
Player B is Smith. Player A is Drew Brees in 2019, which was his last great season before taking a step backward in 2020. Brees broke out after three disappointing seasons to start his career and was a hyperefficient quarterback from that point forward. Smith had two middling seasons to start his career and lost his job without getting a chance to play significant time anywhere else. Over the ensuing seven seasons, his combined line includes a 69.5% completion percentage, 7.3 yards per attempt and a 15-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio across 293 attempts. That's starter-level efficiency.
To be fair, the Seahawks did go six quarters without scoring a touchdown, which hurts when they've played only 16 quarters so far. Smith also has gotten to play the Falcons and Lions over the past two weeks, and they're likely to figure as two of the NFL's worst pass defenses by the end of the season. At the very least, it's clear an offense that was supposed to be left for dead after Russell Wilson's departure has new life with Smith.
Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) has the league's second-highest QBR (77.8). He ranks second in yards per attempt behind Jalen Hurts (Eagles), averaging an even 9.0 yards per throw. By expected points added, Tagovailoa is averaging 0.3 EPA per dropback, which is narrowly ahead of Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) for the best mark in football. And we know Tagovailoa's production has come in meaningful moments, given how he led that dramatic comeback against the Ravens.
I don't like having him outside of the top three, but I have to be realistic. Tagovailoa has missed two quarters and parts of two more with injuries. Missing nearly a quarter of the season would disqualify anybody from the MVP race. I hope he gets the time he needs to heal before returning, and I hope he comes back in time to get the MVP consideration he deserves.
There are four top-tier candidates for three spots, so one has to miss out. Eagles fans are going to be furious, but Hurts is fourth for me. Like Tagovailoa, he has been wildly efficient as a passer, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt. And like Josh Allen (Bills) and Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Hurts has generated significant value with his legs; his 17.6 rushing EPA are the fourth most among quarterbacks.
The problems are the other sides of those coins. Hurts doesn't have much volume as a passer, as he has averaged just under 31 pass attempts per game. He has thrown only four touchdown passes when everyone ahead of him on this list is in the double digits. He hasn't needed to throw because the Eagles have been winning so comfortably, but two of the other three quarterbacks in this top three have shouldered more volume.
Jackson has thrown about as often as Hurts and been less effective in the process, but he makes up the gap as a runner. Hurts is shouldering a huge workload as a runner -- his 53 carries are 16 more than any quarterback so far -- but he hasn't been anywhere near as efficient as his competitors. Hurts is averaging 3.8 yards per carry, way below Allen (6.1) and Jackson (8.5). He is averaging 0.7 RYOE per attempt, which is great, but again below Allen (3.1) and Jackson (a staggering 5.8). Jackson and Allen both have more rushing EPA and more first downs on fewer attempts than Hurts.
If it sounds like I'm dismissing Hurts, I'm not. He has been awesome and done everything the Eagles have asked him to do. I just think the three quarterbacks ahead of him have either done more or been more efficient doing the same things. Hurts' 60.7 Total QBR, which factors in his rushing performance, is well behind the Total QBR of the three quarterbacks remaining on this list, too.
3. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
What Jackson has done as a runner this season has been absolutely absurd. He has generated 175 rush yards over expectation on 30 carries. (He has 37 attempts, but six of those runs are kneels, while a seventh wasn't trackable by the RYOE formula.) He's generating nearly six more rushing yards than an average player would with the same blocking against the same defenses in the same situations.
To put that in context, Jonathan Taylor generated about 1.5 rush yards over expectation per carry as the best running back in football a year ago. During his MVP season in 2019, Jackson generated 4.2 rush yards over expectations per carry, and he has been even more ruthlessly efficient this season.
This 2022 campaign is evoking his MVP run of 2019 in another way as well. During that fateful season, Jackson threw touchdown passes on 9.0% of his dropbacks, which was the third-highest touchdown rate for a quarterback since the merger. (Aaron Rodgers has since topped it.) It was tough to sustain that over the ensuing two years, but he has thrown touchdown passes on 9.4% of his attempts to start 2022. If he can keep that up, he will be an MVP candidate again when this season is over.
There are two factors holding back Jackson. One is passing volume; his 29.3 pass attempts per game are well below the top two guys. He also has thrown four interceptions, which is a rate well below league average. Remember that he threw only six interceptions during his 2019 MVP campaign. As good as he has been, I have to leave him at No. 3.
2. Josh Allen, QB, Bills
You've seen Allen play, so you don't need me to describe what he's capable of doing. He is the single greatest force of nature in the league, seemingly capable of doing just about anything as a passer or runner. Amid a frustrating game as a passer against the Ravens last week, he brought back the Bills as a runner, picking up 70 yards and five first downs on 11 carries. There have been stretches in which he has been nearly flawless as a passer, including the entirety of the revenge victory over the Titans in Week 2. At his best, he is the league's No. 1 player.
He's not No. 1 here, so you know there's a "but" coming. As a passer, Allen has combined league-best volume (168 attempts) with just solid efficiency. He's completing more than 67% of his passes, but operating out of quick game and facing plenty of two-high looks, he's averaging only 7.3 yards per attempt, which ranks 15th. For a guy with arguably the league's strongest arm, his average pass travels only 6.5 yards in the air, which is 27th. His CPOE is actually slightly negative, at minus-0.1%, although that's likely because his drop rate is above league average.
The real difference-maker has come on turnovers. Allen's three interceptions on nearly 170 attempts are no problem, but one of those handed the Ravens a possession on the Buffalo 8-yard line. One of the interceptions wasn't his fault whatsoever, but he also has gotten away with a few near picks, most notably in the Ravens game. Fumbles have been an issue too; he has fumbled four times to start the season, one of which was a strip sack that handed the Dolphins a possession on the Buffalo 6-yard line.
Allen has been incredible, but the turnovers are just enough to push him to No. 2.
1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
Mahomes doesn't have the rushing volume we've seen from the guys below him on this list, but he makes up for it by being the league's best passer. He generates 0.30 EPA per pass play, and he does it over a larger volume than anybody else in the top seven besides Allen, who hasn't been as effective on a snap-by-snap basis.
The explosive, touchdown-from-anywhere offense the Chiefs ran during Mahomes' MVP campaign in 2018 probably isn't coming back anytime soon. What has replaced it is ruthless efficiency. Mahomes turns just under 43% of his pass attempts into first downs. The only other player above 40% is Tagovailoa, who doesn't throw as often. Mahomes' interception and sack rates are among the best in the NFL, and he has only one fumble, so he almost never produces negative plays.
Allen would be a fair pick, given how much ground he makes up on Mahomes with his rushing performance. Hurts is playing wonderful football for the best team in the league. Jackson is carrying the Ravens seemingly single-handedly at times. We're blessed to live in a time with so many exciting young quarterbacks. As much as we take his performance for granted, though, Mahomes has still been the best of the bunch through four weeks.