Predicting NFL Week 5 upsets, plus weekly buzz, notes

The 2022 NFL season has (sort of) passed the quarter mark, with four games in the books of a 17-game campaign in which impressions have unquestionably been formed. If you're 3-1 or better (hello, Philadelphia Eagles) as NFL Week 5 begins, you're hopeful. If you're 1-3 or worse (sorry, Houston Texans), the situation is beginning to look dire. And, of course, if you're one of the whopping 15 teams with a 2-2 record, more study will be needed as the autumn weather grows colder.

Here to tell you which winning teams should be tapping the brakes on those Super Bowl aspirations and which losing groups should not be so hasty to cash in those 2022 chips are ESPN Insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler. In addition to separating wheat from chaff on 3-1 and 1-3 teams, Graz and Fowler are also here to tell you who's going to pull the upsets this week, which players should draw a fantasy start or sit designation in Week 5 and what else is going on around the league that is worthy of notebook status.

Jump to:
1-3 recoveries | 3-1 falls from grace
Commanders direction | Underrated coaches
Steelers talent | DPOY | Upset picks
Fantasy start/sit | Everything we're hearing

Which 1-3 team is most likely to turn it around and make a playoff run?

Graziano: I say, Raiders. That 0-3 start was one of the most surprising September developments in the league, and they might have already endured their worst stretch of the season. I don't think they're a threat to make the Super Bowl or anything like that, but the offense has to play better than it has so far, the pass rush has to be better than it's been so far. Looking at Las Vegas' roster, there's more there than what they've shown so far. In comparison to the other options, I like the Raiders.

I'm also not ready to rule out the Patriots, by the way. They seem to have found something in the run game and almost took out the Packers at Lambeau. If Mac Jones' absence isn't too long, they could sneak into the back end of that playoff field.

Fowler: Steelers. Mike Tomlin has 15 seasons of .500-or-better football. With erratic o-line play and uncertainty at quarterback, that streak is in serious jeopardy. But I'm banking on that Tomlin pedigree -- and several bright spots on the roster -- to pull it together. Pittsburgh has five legitimate weapons on offense and three defensive superstars in Cam Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick and T.J. Watt, who should be back soon. The Steelers are always good for a few wins that you thought they had no chance to grab. The Raiders would be my other prime candidate, with the Lions a close third.

Which 3-1 team is most likely to fade the rest of the season?

Fowler: Giants. I mean, the job Brian Daboll has done is commendable. But he's short about five wide receivers, three linebackers and two quarterbacks. A roster that wasn't expected to compete is now depleted. The early portion of the schedule was soft. But what's clear is this New York team is playing inspired football, playing for its coach. Daboll has galvanized. And Saquon Barkley might mess around and earn some MVP votes. He's been excellent. By 2023, New York could be a monster. Minnesota is close here. The Vikings aren't quite passing the proverbial eye test for me.

Graziano: The Giants have to be the answer for me, too. I was at their game Sunday. Daboll coached his tail off to win that game -- literally drawing up plays on a greaseboard on the sideline to illustrate for Saquon Barkley his responsibilities as the option quarterback once Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor were knocked out of the game. I think Daboll will get the most he can out of this roster. And the way their schedule sets up, they have every chance to win more games than we're used to the Giants winning. But the roster is too thin in too many spots for me to buy them as a playoff team right now.

The Commanders appear headed for another lost season -- how do you expect that situation to play out?

Graziano: Well, if it doesn't turn around to at least some extent, and if they finish with four or five wins, then I would think there's at least some chance they change coaches. Ron Rivera is 15-22 so far as head coach there, and while they did win a division title in 2020, they haven't topped seven wins in either of his first two years. It may not be fair, given the way their quarterback situation has been since he got there, but three years without a winning record is a danger zone for head coaches no matter what is or isn't going on around them.

As for quarterback... it's not a bad year to lose a bunch of games and secure a really high pick if you're a team who needs a quarterback. As with the rest of the NFC East, the Commanders have a schedule that could keep them from losing enough games to pick really high. But if they do, it might turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

Fowler: That's a fair assessment, Dan -- coaches must win to survive. I sense Washington is willing to be patient here, barring a season that completely goes off the rails. The heightened drama surrounding the organization probably helps Rivera's case, since he's a calming figure through all of this. He's a stable, face-of-the-franchise figure amid the Dan Snyder mess. If there's a chance to score a top QB next year, Rivera could craft an offense on his terms. And there's still time to pull off some upsets and reach a respectable spot this year. Now, assuming he survives another losing season, the heat will inevitably rise next season.

Which NFL coach has not gotten nearly enough credit for the job he's done this season?

Fowler: Daboll got credit in an earlier section, so here's another one -- Falcons coach Arthur Smith has caught my attention. For the second straight year, Smith has made a sub-optimal roster competitive, even dangerous. He's 2-2 with a +2 point differential, thanks to two losses by a combined five points. The Falcons have shown they can gameplan wins in different ways, like beating Cleveland at its own game with 35 rushing attempts to control the pace. The Falcons are in a very clear two-year rebuild, but it doesn't feel that way. They are actually pretty good, and Smith is a big part of that.

Graziano: Yeah, those are probably the two best answers to this question -- Smith and Daboll. I'll throw out a couple more that I think have gone a little under the radar so far.

Mike McCarthy has taken a lot of grief his first two years in Dallas, but he's 3-1 in spite of losing his starting QB and starting left tackle. Must be doing something right, no? Matt LaFleur has Aaron Rodgers, sure, but the Packers are clearly putting something together on the fly on offense and they're 3-1 while doing it. Matt Eberflus has very little to work with and is 2-2 out of the gate in Chicago. And Mike Vrabel doesn't seem to always get the credit he deserves. The Titans are 2-2 after being the AFC 1-seed last year, but if you look at their roster and their injury situation, they could be a lot worse than they've been so far.

True or false: This is Mike Tomlin's worst Steelers team.

Fowler: Either team from the Steelers' 2012-13 window wasn't very good. The Steelers realized they got old on defense and along the offensive line and had to rebuild in a hurry. Ben Roethlisberger and offensive coordinator Todd Haley didn't hit it off at first, and Antonio Brown hadn't quite peaked yet. It's close, since this squad is deficient in a few areas -- it was jarring to hear Diontae Johnson use the R word to local reporters this week ("obviously, it's a rebuilding year" Johnson told reporters) -- but the talent is slightly better now than it was nearly a decade ago.

Graziano: I'll defer to Jeremy on this one, since he's been on the ground there a lot more than I have over the years, but that 2019 where they were starting guys like Duck Hodges at QB was a pretty bad Steelers team Tomlin dragged to an 8-8 record.

The NFL Defensive Player of the Year will be _______________.

Fowler: Nick Bosa. He now leads the NFL in sacks (six) and QB hits (12) after his explosive performance on Monday Night Football. Bosa can step foot on any field -- yes, even one with Aaron Donald -- and stand alongside the greats, a ball of rage creating havoc on every down. Patrick Surtain is my next pick.

Graziano: Micah Parsons. He's the best player on the Cowboys, and his ability to transition from the off-ball linebacker he was drafted to be into an unstoppable edge rusher is the main reason the Cowboys have won all three of their games since Dak Prescott got hurt. He's going to stay in the headlines all year, and we've seen nothing from Parsons so far to think he can't keep this up.

What's your top upset pick for Week 5?

Graziano: Browns (+3) over Chargers. The Browns are all about running the ball. The Chargers have allowed 282 rushing yards over their last two games. Cleveland's strengths on offense play into the Chargers' weaknesses on defense, and I think this is a spot for the Browns to bounce back.

Fowler: Bengals (+3) over Ravens. I still don't trust Baltimore's defense to close out games, and Cincinnati appears to have figured a few things out after the 0-2 start. Cincinnati's defense has allowed one touchdown in its last 11 quarters of play.

What's your fantasy football call of the week?

Fowler: Colts RB Nyheim Hines produces on Thursday night football. Jonathan Taylor's ankle issue magnifies Hines' importance. And Hines is too good of a player to stay hampered for long. He's averaging a career-low 6.6 yards per catch, and with the Colts' offensive line struggling, Hines can galvanize the offense by hitting a few big plays.

Graziano: As someone who had Javonte Williams in his lineup and has Hines on his bench, I hope you're right! Because he's starting for me this week, baby!

I'm predicting a monster week for Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson against a Lions defense that's allowing the second-most points per game to fantasy running backs. I'd pick the Patriots' quarterback to have a good week here too, except I think there's a strong chance that's Bailey Zappe. But while they work through their quarterback injuries, the Pats have something going in the run game and should continue to lean on it against a defense that can't stop anybody right now.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano

• Coaching hot seat chatter is already starting to pick up, and there was a lot of buzz early in the week about the Panthers possibly making a move with Matt Rhule if things don't pick up soon. If that happens, look for former Cardinals coach Steve Wilks, currently on the Carolina staff as defensive pass game coordinator/secondary coach, to be the most likely interim head coach for the rest of the season.

• I've been told by sources that Colts RB Jonathan Taylor "has a shot" to play Thursday night against the Broncos in spite of his ankle injury. It will depend on how the injury responds to treatment this week. I'd be surprised if he spent much, if any, time on the practice field.

• This time last week, there was some hope in the Patriots' building that Mac Jones might be able to tough out his ankle injury and play in Week 4. That hope turned out to be misplaced, and checking in there this week it sounds as if Jones is unlikely to play in Week 5 as well. Backup Brian Hoyer had to leave Sunday's game to be checked for a concussion and did not return. All of this points to the possibility of Bailey Zappe making his first career start Sunday against the Lions. "It wasn't too big for him," is what I'm hearing from the Patriots about Zappe's performance in relief of Hoyer against the Packers last week.

• Staying on the ankle injury theme, the Giants are working out quarterbacks this week but hoping that starter Daniel Jones can make enough progress in his recovery from his ankle injury to start for them against the Packers on Sunday in London. Backup Tyrod Taylor left Sunday's game with a concussion, which resulted in running back Saquon Barkley functioning as the option QB and head coach Brian Daboll literally drawing up plays on a greaseboard on the sideline to show Barkley what was expected of him on a given play. It worked, and they hung on to beat the Bears, but don't expect them to go that way if Jones is out this week. Davis Webb likely would be promoted from the practice squad to start. By the way, I asked Barkley after the game if there were any of those plays on which he was allowed to throw the ball, and he laughed and didn't answer. But he did say, "I was 2-for-2 in college!"

Fowler

• Next week still seems like the most likely return date for Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. Dallas is open to him returning this week vs. the Rams but are still working off the original timeline from his Week 2 surgery, which was four weeks or more. That would track him for, at best, a Week 6 return against Philly. Prescott could practice in some capacity this week.

• Washington isn't looking to make a quarterback switch amid the Commanders' slow offensive start. Carson Wentz ranks 25th in QBR (35.7), but Washington expects him to play better in the coming weeks and believes he could be better supported, mainly along the offensive line.

• Jameis Winston very well could miss a second straight week due to the four fractures in his back. After attempting to play through the injury in Weeks 2 and 3, Winston is focused on getting fully healthy, which could take more time. The Saints aren't putting a firm timetable on Winston's absence, taking his recovery week-to-week, but he needs time to heal. Winston's ability to move to his normal standard has been affected.

• 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans is coming off another performance that could strengthen his head coaching case in 2022-23. After sacking Matthew Stafford seven times and holding the Rams to nine points on Monday Night Football, the 49ers rank first in the league in scoring defense (11.5 points per game) and second in total defense (234.5 yards per game). Looking back to his interview process with the Vikings last year, the team planned to fly in Ryans for a second interview, liking what they saw from the first session, but Ryans respectfully backed out. One source involved in that process believed that Ryans felt he wasn't quite ready and wanted another year with the 49ers defense. With another season under Kyle Shanahan, Ryans has time to plan for this year's cycle -- honing his big-picture approach to a head-coaching job -- while keeping San Francisco's defensive attack top-notch.

• Position coaches work behind the scenes without much fanfare, but several quarterbacks coaches are doing some impressive work maximizing the talents of five passers who have somewhat surprisingly cracked the top 10 in QBR.

  -- Dave Canales, Seattle Seahawks: Has helped Geno Smith rank fifth in QBR (72.4) and first in completion percentage (77.3).

  -- Doug Nussmeier, Dallas Cowboys: Cooper Rush has posted a 95-plus passer rating in each of his three starts.

  -- Mark Brunell, Detroit Lions: Jared Goff is playing his best football since his 2018 Pro Bowl campaign as the Lions lead the NFL in points (35) and yards (436.8) per game

  -- Drew Petzing, Cleveland Browns: Jacoby Brissett is giving the Browns what they need, 200-plus yards per game with minimal turnovers and a solid completion percentage (64.6%).

  -- Darrell Bevell, Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa is sandwiched between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in QBR, with a 77.8 rating. Tagovailoa is tied for the league lead with five completion of 40-plus yards.

  The Philadelphia Eagles' Brian Johnson could also be included here for his good work with Jalen Hurts, but Hurts' standing as a top-10 passer isn't as surprising as these others.