The NFL running back conundrum: How teams view their value

But one NFL general manager makes an argument for the importance of the position, especially for teams without a top-10 passer: "If you're a coach who has Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor, you will have a hard time explaining to your owner and GM that you only ran the ball 10 times and lost. Maybe top running backs get less carries with an elite quarterback. But if you don't [have one], that run game is absolutely crucial."

To illustrate that point, consider this: Daboll's quarterback in Buffalo was Josh Allen. In New York, it's Daniel Jones.

Barkley's budding renaissance and the successes of Henry and Taylor elicit multiple questions about the future of the running back position. Is the notion of a heavy workload for a single back returning to fashion? Is a large complement of NFL carries counterproductive for running backs in search of that next big contract? Is the value of running backs in free agency set to change, and how does the answer to that question inform the strategy toward backs selected in the draft?

To highlight the realities of the modern NFL running back and where one of the hallowed positions in the lore of the game appears headed, ESPN interviewed more than a dozen informed stakeholders throughout the league, including front-office decision-makers, head and assistant coaches, and the running backs themselves.

Costly carries, and why the running back market lags

As an elite pass-catcher out of the backfield and a three-touchdown hero for the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI, James White hoped his first foray into free agency would be fruitful. Sure, he was coming off a down year in 2020, with Tom Brady's exit causing a downstream impact for White and the whole offense, but he'd caught 159 passes the previous two seasons.

Still, White's options were scarce in 2021, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wanted to sign him but basically told White he would get more money returning to New England. White agreed to a one-year deal with the Patriots worth $2.5 million.

He couldn't help but wonder if the same production at another position would have made him richer.

"I've looked at it that way -- I've had more yards than a slot receiver making twice as much," said White, who retired this offseason.

How NFL teams allocate funds to offensive skill players is telling. A total of 27 teams dedicated at least $10 million in 2022 cap space to wide receiver, compared to 13 for running back/fullback. Dallas leads the NFL with $20.2 million allocated to the backfield, largely due to Ezekiel Elliott's bloated six-year, $90 million deal, yet 13 teams are above that $20.2 million figure at wide receiver.

Even No. 2 receivers get supreme running back money. The Chargers are paying Keenan Allen and Mike Williams $20 million per year each. The Rams just agreed to paid Allen Robinson II $46.5 million over three years ($15.5 million per year) to complement No. 1 receiver Cooper Kupp. That would make him the second highest-paid running back in comparison.

This disparity played out in free agency, when the highest-earning tailbacks, James Conner and Leonard Fournette, landed contracts worth $7 million per year. Christian Kirk, widely considered a No. 2 receiver, got $18 million per year from Jacksonville.

"Most teams do view the position as interchangeable,. They can find somebody in the draft who's cheaper who can do it for 1-2 years."

Former Patriots running back James White

Running backs know the reality: With a few exceptions, teams prefer to pay a committee of backs at clearance prices, and the history of those exceptions helped create the philosophy.

Two of the biggest running back contracts of the past half-decade -- Christian McCaffrey's four-year, $64 million deal with Carolina and Todd Gurley's four-year, $57.5 million deal with the Rams -- were blemished by injury. Los Angeles cut Gurley, who had major knee issues, after two seasons on the deal, while McCaffrey has missed 23 of 36 games since signing his contract.

All of this is frustrating, White admits, but he doesn't see it changing.

"Most teams do view the position as interchangeable," White said. "They can find somebody in the draft who's cheaper who can do it for one, two years. They don't feel the need to lock somebody up for four or five years. They don't see it as valuable where they have to restructure and cut a guy eventually."

One AFC executive used the Cleveland Browns' Nick Chubb as an example of the current market realities: Chubb is considered by many to be a top-three NFL tailback, plays in a run-centric Browns attack, was reasonably fresh (680 carries through three seasons) when he did his extension in 2021 -- and got $36.6 million over three years, solid money but well short of what McCaffrey received a year earlier.

"That's where the market is -- teams just won't allocate massive numbers to the position," the exec said.

Beyond the cautionary injury tales for McCaffrey and Gurley lies the mileage argument. Some personnel evaluators admit to viewing tailback carries like miles on a car, wear and tear that leads to more problems (injuries) down the road. Teams also track practice participation, how backs avoid squared-up hits and collisions and how they run with pad level in order to get an accurate reading of how much a running back has left.

Yet some players defy logic. Before retiring in April at age 38, Frank Gore amassed 16,000 rushing yards on 3,735 carries. His 4,219 career touches are third in NFL history behind only Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton, and he continued to produce at a high level years after the industry assessed Gore as close to the end.

"He came out with some injury concerns out of Miami and he played 35 years or whatever the hell he played," Bengals general manager Duke Tobin said. "The longevity and durability component, obviously the work ethic has to be there."

The Green Bay blueprint: Two-back production and positive market trends

Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon tried trading cryptocurrency together this offseason, spending some spare locker room moments studying trends and anticipating bear markets.

"We did pretty good -- then the market crashed," Jones said with a laugh about the venture with his close friend.

Looking to the future seems fitting, since the Green Bay duo's on-field stock shows a feisty two-year yield.

Without Davante Adams, the Packers are leaning heavily on their top backs to produce, with head coach Matt LaFleur cooking up several looks with both players on the field together.

Multiple figures interviewed within the league cited Green Bay's setup as a good blueprint for the position. As White says, "I always thought that was the best way to do the position anyways, with two players with unique skill sets."

Jones first saw the value in a two-back system watching old clips of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in Carolina. In this setup, Jones, a unique pass-catcher with open-field explosion, and Dillon, a bruiser with an expanding game, can play off misdirection all day when they line up on each side of Aaron Rodgers.

"You can get a minimum of 10 to 12 different looks off that," Jones said. "[Defenses] can't get a beat on you. They don't know who's going out for a ride, who's blocking, who to treat as the runner or the pass-catcher."

That was on full display in Week 2 as Jones and Dillon combined for 234 of Green Bay's 414 offensive yards on 37 touches.

Jones, who scored a four-year, $48 million extension last offseason, believes Green Bay's insistence on using multiple backs will prolong his career. Jones, who has a manageable 842 carries through five-plus seasons, feels he can play as long as Gore. Dillon is a 2024 free agent on a rookie deal, so if the Packers want to pay him eventually, they will have to (a) maneuver their current $8.5 million cap outlook, and (b) decide the future of Jones, who has cap hits of $20 million and $16 million from 2023-24.

In the meantime, the Packers tailbacks sit in Friday meetings urging one another to bring what they call "the spark," plays that enliven the sideline. Running over a linebacker is one way. The way Jones sees it, not many positions on the field can have the same effect.

"I feel we're undervalued -- we do so much," Jones said. "From knowing all the concepts in the passing game, lining out wide, knowing the running game, protections, pass protecting ... Running backs help take stress off everyone else."

College football and the running back Catch-22

Najee Harris entered pre-2021 NFL draft interviews ready to showcase his football acumen and vibe with prospective teams.

Instead, he was offered a reduced role.

"There were a couple of teams where they were like, 'Oh, we're a running back-by-committee team,'" Harris said. "I'm like, 'I feel confident I can carry the load.' ... They were saying that day and age is over with."

Harris didn't agree with the logic. He'd been a primary back all his life, and in his final two seasons at Alabama, he turned 460 carries into 2,690 yards and 39 touchdowns.

But the sentiments were clear: "'You're going to see when you get to the NFL'-type s---," Harris recalls of the attitude.

Harris' experience reflects the juxtaposition at play with running backs entering the draft: Top backs use college to confirm workload prowess, but heavy workload might cause teams to wonder if too much mileage will affect pro potential.

The Indianapolis Colts navigated this with Jonathan Taylor, the 41st overall pick in 2020. Taylor had everything: burst, contact balance, toughness, breakaway speed, leadership.

"One of the biggest concerns teams had with Jonathan was that he had all of those carries in college," said general manager Chris Ballard, referencing Taylor's 926 carries at Wisconsin. "He looks good to me. I think some guys are built for it. And I think he's built for it."

Yet Taylor still went in the second round, which has become something of a sweet spot for top backs now. Many evaluators believed the Jets' Breece Hall and Seahawks' Kenneth Walker III were top-20 overall players in the 2022 draft. Both fell out of the top 32. The average draft position of the first five backs selected from the past four drafts is No. 56 -- far higher than the average of No. 30 from 2017 to '18, a stretch that included top-10 picks Barkley, McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette. The average draft position of the first five backs selected in this past April's draft was No. 65.

Once he was selected in 2020's second round, the Colts crafted a plan to help Taylor last, but that didn't exactly work as planned last season, when the Colts' erratic passing game resulted in a league-high 332 carries in his sophomore campaign. Two missions conflicted: Don't overwork Taylor, but do whatever it takes to win ... which usually meant overworking him.

"We study all of that. We're always aware of [his workload]," Colts coach Frank Reich said. "You're always factoring in. You use it as guidelines. You don't say, 'Hey, we can never give him the ball more than X amount.' But you know over the course of time this needs to be the average, in a certain zone."

The Colts don't have a pitch count, but they figure tailback Nyheim Hines should be a big factor in the third-down passing game, which will lessen Taylor's workload in 2022.

Taylor is also obsessive about his routine, which features constant dry needling sessions, massages and a heavy leg workout right after the game, sometimes that night.

"You know when people say after a game they feel like they've been hit by a truck? I don't feel that way and I get 30 carries. I feel like I train in a way where I can withstand that."

Steelers running back Najee Harris

"If you prepared your body and your mind in the offseason to withstand it week-in and week-out, you'll be in good shape," Taylor said. "You have to maintain it throughout the season to mitigate as many injuries as possible."

Last year, Taylor got on a roll, amassing more than 25 carries four times in a five-week stretch late in the year.

"Can you sustain that over 10 years? Maybe not," Reich said. "History is not favorable to that. But for running backs, you have to get what you can while you can get it."

One year after Taylor went No. 41 overall, Harris says he departed from those discouraging NFL draft pre-interviews wanting the ball even more. The Steelers obliged, bucking the recent second-round trend by drafting him 24th overall and giving him the ball 307 times in Year 1.

Assumptions a lead back will break down are "stereotypical," Harris says, because they don't see the weight-room training, the rehab, the diet.

"You know when people say after a game they feel like they've been hit by a truck?" asks Harris, who finished his rookie year with 1,200 yards but has also dealt with a foot injury in the early stages of this season. "I don't feel that way and I get 30 carries. I feel like I train in a way where I can withstand that."

D'Andre Swift and the benefits of a platoon

Early in a tenure that began when he was hired in January 2021, Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes made the determination that he prefers a tailback-by-committee approach. Holmes had seen a lot over nearly two decades with the St. Louis and Los Angeles Rams, including Gurley's brilliant career that knee injuries limited to six years.

"It's a violent game, man. Those hits can pile up. You've got to be smart," Holmes said. "I truly think the days of having one bell cow and he's getting 25 carries are fading away a little bit. You look at data and play time and just career spans for RBs and the data shows that the more you give them, it can be tough at times."

Holmes admits those numbers can depend on the style of running back, which applies perfectly to his two-man Detroit setup.

D'Andre Swift is an explosive playmaker. He's also listed at 5-foot-9 and 211 pounds.

Swift's style makes him dangerous in space, where the hits can be less vicious, so the Lions required a bruising complement. Holmes liked how Jamaal Williams, who signed with the Lions in 2021 free agency, had a modest 500 carries in four years in Green Bay -- enough to show what he can do without losing tread. Swift bought in.

"To get longevity, the kind of one-two punch is a good thing going," Swift said when interviewed before the season. "Not having too many carries can go a long way."

Swift's college experience informed that belief. As a Georgia signee, Swift saw Chubb and Sony Michel sharing carries on their way to NFL stardom. He envisioned the same combination for himself and Cam Akers, who nearly signed with Georgia before attending Florida State. Instead, Swift and Elijah Holyfield shared carries, 163 to 159, respectively, in his first year as a primary offensive option for the Bulldogs.

"You look at data and play time and just career spans for RBs and the data shows that the more [carries] you give them, it can be tough at times."

Lions general manager Brad Holmes

After only 440 carries in three years in the SEC, Swift felt fresh.

"Young me, I was thinking where can I go to be the guy?" Swift said. "But when I got [to Georgia] and saw how different it was, speed of the game, the toll it takes on your body, you realize a one-two is better."

The plan is working. Swift had 200 rushing yards on 20 carries through the first two games, leaving much of the between-the-tackles bruising to Williams (23 carries, 81 yards). On Sunday against Minnesota, Williams had 22 touches to Swift's 10, as Swift battled shoulder and ankle problems that could cause him to miss some time.

"In that change-of-pace kind of role, [Swift] was really good, but when you make him a bell cow and just give him every single carry, I don't know if it's the best thing for that style of player," said Holmes of Swift's college transition. "Knowing that about him going into this job and we come into free agency looking to pair someone with him, it made a lot of sense because [Williams] split time in Green Bay, and not having a ton of mileage on him. That did play a lot [into the decision to sign Williams]."

The Saquon mystery

Bengals general manager Duke Tobin has the perfect example of why projecting running back durability feels impossible.

"The guy with the Giants was one of the best-looking physical specimens you can have," Tobin said. "He's built exactly the way you want him. Great production. And he got hurt. You tell me how to figure that out. I haven't figured that out yet."

Barkley might be the last NFL running back taken No. 2 overall for a long while, even though his spot in the 2018 draft was justified based on his skill set. Built like a monster-truck tire, Barkley was a 233-pound powerhouse with 4.4 speed, which made him a threat to score from anywhere on the field.

His collegiate mileage was modest (671 carries, 102 receptions over three seasons at Penn State), and his ability in the passing game was lethal.

"[The game] was evolving to backs being more versatile, and it worked out perfectly for me," Barkley said coming out of college. "Being able to run routes there, run the ball in between the tackles, outside the tackles, motion, that's where it felt like it got me ready for the NFL."

This optimal set of skills led Barkley to NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2018 and, the next year, to the No. 1 spot in ESPN's poll of executives, scouts, coaches and players ranking the top running backs.

Two years later, though, Barkley had missed 21 games in four seasons, and he wasn't the same last year as he recovered from a torn ACL. The Giants did not attempt to extend Barkley's contract, so he's playing on his fifth-year option of $7.2 million.

Barkley was supposed to command McCaffrey money. Instead, he found himself watching more football -- Giants games, film study, college -- than he was playing.

"It's not easy when your body is telling you no and you've got to fight against it, get your mind right, continue to grind every single day," said Barkley of a long few years. "It's a grind whether you're 10 percent or not 110 percent."

The career reset has begun, and Barkley refuses to accept that a lesser role would aid longevity.

"Nah, I'm not a believer in that," he said. "Yeah, I guess you could say that's less miles on your body. But at the end of the day I would never not want to be on the field. All the games I miss, it hurts me to the core."

Whether a resurgent year can help Barkley get a new contract and potentially alter industry thinking about the value of running backs remains to be seen.

"I want to be one of the best to ever play. I feel like that's still possible."