Most trade rumors don't take six months to consummate, but the Cleveland Browns finally solved their Baker Mayfield problem on Wednesday. Stuck with a $18.6 million quarterback they didn't want and who didn't want to play for the organization any further, a Mayfield trade seemed inevitable. Finally, just weeks before training camps open, the deal is done: Mayfield is off to join the Carolina Panthers for a 2024 conditional fifth-round pick (can become a fourth-rounder, depending on Mayfield's play time).
It's no surprise that we got here, because no one was happy with their situation. The Browns wanted to shed as much of Mayfield's salary as possible with a deal. After the team's trade for Deshaun Watson, Mayfield wanted an opportunity to start elsewhere. And the Panthers have spent the entirety of the Matt Rhule era hunting for a quarterback. With the Seahawks as the only other team realistically in the market for a veteran starter, the Panthers were well positioned to wait out the negotiations and extract a reasonable price.
Did they succeed? Let's run through the winners and losers from this deal, both in terms of the direct parties involved and who else will be impacted around the NFL.
Winner: Carolina Panthers
From Carolina's perspective, this is an easy victory. Mayfield has his foibles, and I think it's fair to wonder whether he's someone worth a significant long-term commitment, but he has been a competent NFL starting quarterback when healthy. The Panthers are getting that for a conditional fifth-round pick while paying the former first overall selection what is reportedly $4.85 million. (Cleveland is paying $10.5 million, while the remainder of Mayfield's $18.8 million salary has been converted into incentives.)
That's excellent value for even a borderline starting quarterback. Consider that the Washington Commanders sent two third-round picks and swapped second-rounders to get a more starter on a more expensive contract in Carson Wentz. The Indianapolis Colts gave up a third-round pick for two years and $54 million of Matt Ryan. Heck, the Panthers themselves sent second-, fourth- and sixth-round picks to the New York Jets for Sam Darnold, then guaranteed him more than $18 million for 2022. You might prefer Ryan or Wentz, but there's a much bigger gap in price than there is in talent or expected production between these passers.
Unlike the Darnold deal, which required the Panthers to commit to a second season to make logical sense, Carolina's in for one year with Mayfield on what amounts to backup quarterback money. If Mayfield excels in Carolina, the Panthers can work on an extension or franchise Mayfield in 2023, when Darnold's deal comes off the books. Carolina GM Scott Fitterer and Co. might still want to take a bigger swing in the draft or at a veteran like Kyler Murray if he were to come available, but Mayfield improves the Panthers in 2022 without compromising any long-term flexibility.
Winner: Matt Rhule
If Rhule is actually coaching for his job in 2022, Mayfield drastically increased the former Temple leader's chances of sticking around. Rhule was looking at a quarterback depth chart of Darnold, P.J. Walker and rookie third-rounder Matt Corral before Wednesday's deal.
Darnold has now started his career with four consecutive below-average seasons. The eight other quarterbacks who began their own careers in the same way are Blake Bortles, Tim Couch, Jeff George, Joey Harrington, Rick Mirer, Mike Pagel, Jake Plummer and Mark Sanchez. Optimists can point to George and Plummer, but they were much closer to league average early in their careers than Darnold has been.
Walker has eight interceptions on 122 career attempts, while Corral was drafted in a round where the success rate for signal-callers turning into NFL starters isn't very high. (The Panthers trading up for Corral during the draft makes it seem like they didn't really have a long-term plan to make a Mayfield deal, but that's a sunk cost at this point.)
Mayfield has posted two above-average seasons in four tries as a pro, and his 2021 campaign was compromised (in part) by a significant left shoulder injury. His floor has been better than Darnold's typical level of play, and his ceiling over a full season is better than Darnold has ever looked for more than a month at a time.
Loser: Sam Darnold
Obviously, the trade significantly reduces the chances of Darnold starting in Carolina. I wouldn't close the door altogether on Darnold seeing time for the Panthers in 2022, if only because the price Carolina paid doesn't exactly lock it into Mayfield. Fitterer and Rhule were willing to trade much more significant draft capital and commit a second year to acquire Darnold a year ago. Meanwhile, they weren't willing to pay full freight for Mayfield in March after the Watson trade and waited for the Browns' asking price to come down before finalizing a deal months later.
It's difficult to imagine Darnold losing a competition to Mayfield and then spending the season on the bench for the Panthers before landing a starting job next offseason. He has to play to wash away the significant amount of bad tape he has put on record over the past four seasons, and once you stop being treated as a viable starter or a promising prospect, it's almost impossible to get back on that track again. Just look at someone like Bortles, who was one quarter away from the Super Bowl at the end of 2017, struggled in 2018 and has thrown a total of two passes since then.
For Darnold, I wonder if he just plays out the exact same scenario we saw with Mayfield in Cleveland, with the former Jets starter playing the role of the displaced incumbent. The best thing for Darnold (and likely the Panthers) would be a trade where the Panthers eat some of the $18.9 million owed to the USC product, while a new team gives up a late-round pick and pays Darnold like a backup, chipping in $5 million or so. Mayfield gave up $3.45 million to help facilitate the deal, a precedent Darnold would likely have to match or exceed.
But even at that price, are there many teams who would be interested in Darnold?
The Browns could use a backup for Jacoby Brissett if Watson is suspended for the entire season, but they didn't make him part of this deal. (Watson has been accused in civil lawsuits by 25 women of actions ranging from sexual assault to inappropriate behavior during massage sessions.) The Denver Broncos don't have much behind Russell Wilson, but they might be afraid to trade away more draft capital after giving up a haul to get their starter. The Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams or Cincinnati Bengals could justify upgrading behind their starters but maybe not while paying several million dollars in the process.
At this point, most teams are locked into their backups, so the most likely scenario would be some team trading for Darnold if they lose either their No. 1 or No. 2 QB to a serious injury. There's one team left in the quarterback race, but they might be locked in to their top two options at this point ...
Loser: Seattle Seahawks
By passing up the opportunity to trade for Mayfield at what was an extremely modest cost, the Seahawks sure seem like they're going to move forward in 2022 with Drew Lock and Geno Smith as their quarterback competition. It has been difficult to understand or believe since the Wilson trade actually went down, but everything the Seahawks have said and done makes it seem like they believe they can coax above-average play out of what appears to be replacement-level options.
I'm not sure I really understand Seattle's lack of interest in Mayfield, especially at this cost. Nobody loves competition quite like Seattle coach Pete Carroll, and for whatever you want to say about Mayfield's ability, it's hard to argue with the Oklahoma product's desire. And Mayfield was playing in a run-heavy, play-action-intensive offense in Cleveland, one that bears at least some similarity to what the Seahawks are expected to run in 2022.
Paying significant draft capital for Mayfield would have been a bad idea. But getting him for pennies on the dollar would be a good move for a team needing a backup, let alone one with question marks about its starter.
There is one more starting-caliber quarterback on the market, but given where his current team plays, that passer is likely off limits to the Seahawks. And that quarterback has an even murkier future ...
Loser: Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers
In part owing to Garoppolo's right shoulder injury, the 49ers are stuck in a situation they would really rather have avoided. The Panthers were the team best positioned to give Niners GM John Lynch a meaningful return for Garoppolo, who has just under $25 million in non-guaranteed money left on the final year of his current deal. The only remaining organization with a significant need at QB are those Seahawks, and while anything's possible, you have to figure that the 49ers would rather not trade Garoppolo within the NFC West division to their archrivals.
So now what? Garoppolo is expected to start throwing later this month, but what do the 49ers do after he arrives? It doesn't make sense to eat $20 million or so in salary to trade Garoppolo for a conditional late-round pick. Keeping him either leaves the 49ers with the most expensive backup in football history or blocks Trey Lance, for whom they used three first-round picks to move up in the draft and acquire last April. Cutting Garoppolo saves the money, but it leaves the Niners without any draft compensation for their starter and allows him to sign wherever he wants, with Seattle as the glaring favorite pending its love affair with Lock and Smith.
One interesting possibility that has suddenly opened up: Would the Browns trade for Garoppolo if he's healthy in August and Watson is suspended for the entire season? Kevin Stefanski's offense in Cleveland shares many similarities to what Kyle Shanahan runs in San Francisco, so there wouldn't be as significant of a learning curve as there might be in other landing spots. The Browns have $48 million in cap space, so they would be the one team that could trade for Garoppolo and absorb his contract without having to restructure any deals.
A one-year marriage of convenience would make sense for both sides, should a Watson suspension occur. Garoppolo would likely be an upgrade on Brissett, and he would get a year to start on a competitive team before hitting free agency. The Browns don't have any reason to make a longer commitment with Watson in the fold.
Cleveland obviously wouldn't be a logical landing spot if Watson is suspended for only part of the season, and there might not be any money left in the coffers for an organization that's already spending $280 million in cash this year (per Spotrac), but it's not hard to imagine a scenario where a Garoppolo-to-Cleveland deal could suit all parties.
If it doesn't happen, Garoppolo might now be in a position where he'd have to take a significant pay cut either to stay with the 49ers or to sign somewhere else in free agency, given that there aren't going to be teams with $25 million in cap space or cash in their budget waiting to sign him at the end of training camp. There's probably a middle ground where staying put makes sense for both parties. I'd guess that lands somewhere around $9 million, but that creates another headache ...
Loser: Trey Lance
The best-case scenario for Lance would have been Garoppolo going to Carolina and getting a clean break from the organization. Instead, there's now a realistic possibility that the 49ers keep Garoppolo around for 2022, at which point Lance's path to the starting QB job in Year 2 is much more complicated.
I think Lance will be the starter for the 49ers in 2022, and I think he'll be very good in that role. I don't think the 49ers traded three first-round picks for the chance to draft Lance at No. 3 in 2021 just to keep him on the bench for multiple seasons. Then again, I also thought the 49ers would move on from Garoppolo last offseason, and the team kept him around and started him when healthy. Garoppolo's limitations were on display late in the NFC Championship Game against the Los Angeles Rams, but he also helped lead a dramatic Week 18 comeback against those very same Rams to get the 49ers into the postseason in the first place.
Even if Lance is the Week 1 starter, though, things are more complicated if Garoppolo's still on the roster. If Lance gets injured or struggles, there will be much more of a push to turn to Garoppolo than there would be if the Niners were relying on Nate Sudfeld as their primary backup. Garoppolo could also just win the job outright in camp.
Again, to be clear: I think the most likely scenario sees Lance start throughout 2022. With Garoppolo in the mix, though, I think the chances of something unexpected happening are higher than they would be otherwise.
Loser: Derek Carr
I'll just throw this one out there, but it's a little more tenuous than the more obvious moves. If Garoppolo had gone to the Panthers, there's a decent chance Carolina would have committed to an extension as part of that deal, especially if it were for significant draft capital. It would have kept Garoppolo off the market in 2023, which could be a big offseason for the Las Vegas Raiders and their new braintrust of coach Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler.
Wait, didn't Carr just sign a three-year, $121.5 million extension in April? Yes, but the terms of that extension are very interesting. The Raiders' QB was guaranteed only $24.9 million as part of the deal. Given that Carr was already set to make $19.8 million in the final year of his existing deal, the Raiders basically paid just over $5 million and gave Carr a no-trade clause to lock in the right to pay Carr $116 million over three years, starting in 2023. But there's no obligation for the Raiders to pay Carr a single cent after 2022.
If the Raiders decided that they want to move on after this season, they could cut the veteran passer (or get him to waive his no-trade clause) while eating just $5.6 million in dead money. The Raiders would free up more than $29 million in cap space in an offseason when Garoppolo -- McDaniels' former charge in New England -- would be hitting free agency.
Does this tell us that the Raiders are about to dump Carr for Garoppolo? No. I don't think the Raiders can be sure that Garoppolo will be available next year, and I would argue that Carr's the better quarterback of the two. Things can also change awfully fast in the course of 12 months, as we saw with the Philadelphia Eagles and Carson Wentz, the Rams with Jared Goff and the Browns with Mayfield. If the Raiders disappoint this year, and Garoppolo ends up available in free agency, Vegas would have the flexibility to make a move. But if Garoppolo were in Carolina, that would likely be off the table.
Winner: DJ Moore
On 498 career targets, the star wide receiver has caught passes from a (mostly compromised) Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Darnold, Walker, Taylor Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert and Will Grier. In 2021, per Sports Info Solutions, Moore was thrown 34 uncatchable passes traveling 10 yards or more downfield, the second most of any receiver in football.
Mayfield is not exactly Justin Herbert as a downfield passer, but he's still a comfortable upgrade on the Carolina quarterbacks Moore has caught deep throws from as a pro.
Winner: The Panthers' Defense
If Mayfield delivers league-average performance under center, edge rusher Brian Burns and Co. should be able to rest easier as the season goes along.
The Panthers were 21st in points allowed per game last season, but that's misleading. Carolina faced the fourth-most drives in football and inherited the league's worst average starting field position by more than 1.5 yards. It was seventh in the league in defensive DVOA through its Week 13 bye, at which point it collapsed and allowed 29 or more points in four of its final five games.
Competent quarterback play should keep the offense on the field for longer, steadier drives, which would reduce the workload on Phil Snow's defense.
Loser: New Orleans Saints
While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the class of the NFC South, the Saints looked like they were well ahead of the rest of the division. The Atlanta Falcons are tanking, although the question of whether they realize it remains up in the air. The Panthers have far more talent on their roster than Atlanta, but with Darnold and Corral under center, the chances of turning that talent into nine or more wins seemed remote.
With Mayfield in the fold, though, the Panthers are a far more viable contender. No, he isn't likely to lead Carolina to the Super Bowl, but we saw him lead Cleveland to 11 wins and a playoff victory in 2020. Mayfield might very well be the second-best quarterback in the division, especially if New Orleans' Jameis Winston isn't 100% as he returns from a torn ACL in his left knee.
If the Saints struggle on offense after losing coach Sean Payton to retirement, the Panthers are much better positioned to take up that second-place spot in the NFC South than they would have been before the Mayfield trade.
Winner: Baker Mayfield
On the simplest possible level, this is a victory for Mayfield, who had clearly run his course in Cleveland. Even if the Browns hadn't been able to get the Watson deal finished, they didn't seem very interested in committing to Mayfield as their long-term starter. The coach (Hue Jackson) and general manager (John Dorsey) who drafted Mayfield are long gone from the organization. And in a league that's becoming more careful about locking up competent passers with market-value deals, I think this split was probably going to happen even without a Watson deal, either in 2022 or 2023.
This is a very good landing spot for the 27-year-old, too. The Panthers have high-end skill players, with Moore and running back Christian McCaffrey as the two top targets. They have a newly upgraded offensive line after using their first-round pick on offensive tackle Ikem Ekwonu and importing center Bradley Bozeman and guard Austin Corbett on the interior. Right tackle Taylor Moton is one of the better players at his position. Mayfield has thrived when his offensive line has been healthy, and the Panthers have a line that, at least on paper, looks like it could be very solid in 2022.
While Mayfield's numbers have risen and fallen dramatically over his four campaigns, his underlying talent and skill set really have not. When Mayfield is protected and surrounded by talent, his confidence grows, and he plays well. When he doesn't trust the players around him, Mayfield lapses into hero ball and takes unnecessary hits. His footwork gets sloppy. As much as Mayfield was physically broken down by the end of 2021, I think people underestimate how shot Mayfield's confidence and self-belief must have been. Mayfield has been his best as a pro when expectations have been low.
Now he has an organization and a fan base that would happily settle for solid, competent play in 2022. The Panthers have enjoyed exactly one healthy season from their quarterback since making the Super Bowl in 2015. Since the second half of 2018, when Newton followed an MVP-caliber first half by struggling through a right shoulder injury, the Panthers have ranked 30th in the league in Total QBR. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars and Commanders have been worse, and one of those two teams coped by making a much more expensive deal for Wentz earlier this year.
Mayfield quickly became a fan favorite in Cleveland, in part because the bar was set impossibly low. The Browns were coming off of a 1-31 stretch when they drafted him with the first overall pick. They had enjoyed exactly one full season of above-average quarterback play since the franchise returned to the league in 1999, with Derek Anderson's 2007 campaign the lone standout across a 19-year span. Mayfield wasn't a superstar, but he was above average twice in three tries to begin his career.
Now he gets the opportunity to revitalize another fan base lulled to sleep by hopeless quarterback play.